101. EricCartman1 - June 19, 1999 - 10:35 PM PT
By the way, if anyone wants bona fides on the article from which I excerpted the above quotes, here they are: Page A10, SF Chronicle, 6/19/99, by Donna Bryson, Associated Press. Sorry I couldn't provide a link.
102. bottomfdr - June 19, 1999 - 10:38 PM PT
colossus: The last half of your posst #99 went completely over my head. Could you elaborate please?
103. jonesatlaw - June 20, 1999 - 12:42 AM PT
Cartman- gotta respect a man who provides his cites....
104. colossus - June 20, 1999 - 10:21 AM PT
Message #100
Finally, Cart's said something I profoundly agree with.
The South African Model is ideal for Kosova. Clinton is already using his buddy Elie Weisel in the region, I think he should ask Tutu and Mandela to head there as well.
No more Velveeta Jokes.
105. colossus - June 20, 1999 - 10:23 AM PT
Today is officially V-K day.
Happy V-K Day to Rosie!
The Holy of Holy Days Vidov Dan is Monday next.
Shop early for your severed ears.
106. LadyChaos - June 20, 1999 - 1:44 PM PT
Let the Serbs stew in their juices
107. pellenilsson - June 20, 1999 - 1:54 PM PT
"Let the Serbs stew in their juices"
For a little while maybe. But it is not a solution. Remember how the victorious dealt with Japan and Germany.
108. AuNaturel - June 20, 1999 - 2:35 PM PT
"South Africa has been a model for reconciliation; hopefully NATO can get the KLA disarmed, and implement a similar process."
Won't be easy. About as tough as getting the IRA to disarm. Nobody had the wherewithal to disarm them involuntarily. Creating a native defense force from the ground up and doing all the training ouselves would make the locals feel safer and deprive the KLA of recruits.
I don't see any option for Kosova other than independence.
109. Wombat - June 21, 1999 - 7:04 AM PT
Pelle:
Germany and Japan were physically occupied by the victors.
110. LadyChaos - June 21, 1999 - 9:10 AM PT
We were also able to essentially dictate the form of government in post-war Germany and Japan. Until Milosevic is gone and the Serbs have clearly turned away from their nationalistic fantasies, the example of the Germany/Japan seems inapplicable.
111. colossus - June 21, 1999 - 9:16 AM PT
*They* said it couldn't be done - The KLA has agreed to disband and turn over all arms within 90 days. In response, some Serbs who had fled are planning to return to "Holy" Kosova.
All this as a Human Rights worker on CNN predicts 10,000 civilian murders a conservative figure. She predicted mass killings would be "in the tens of thousands".
112. colossus - June 21, 1999 - 9:22 AM PT
Message #107
People laughed at me, they ridiculed me as a "racist" when I said that Serbia should be occupied and returned as a people to the good old days of peaceful pig farms.
Let them scoff! That's exactly what should have happened. A limited war yields a limited victory and a limited peace.
If we had occupied Beastly Beograd and deported Rosetta Stone and her smelly brood, then we could have spoken of "rebuilding".
As it is, Clintoon is yammering about repairing the damaged power plants. I say let 'em freeze in the dark until they surrender Slobo!
113. bottomfdr - June 21, 1999 - 9:33 AM PT
Dictating the form of government to the defeated Germans and Japanese was easy. They had surrendered unconditionally. Not so with Milosevic. What NATO has in Yugoslavia is more in the form of an armistice. Limited objectives=mixed results.
What may well happen in Yugoslavia is what happened in Korea. The North Koreans were beaten, an armistice was signed and yet a Stalinist type government kept power. And even though the people of North Korea are having a bad time, starvation etc., Kim Il what's- his -face and his chosen few live in relative wealth.
That may be well be the model Slobo will emulate. Clinton says no aid for the Serbs, but will Slobo really care?
114. pellenilsson - June 21, 1999 - 11:07 AM PT
I'm not talking about occupation or dictating government. I'm talking about inviting Serbia into Europe, to become a partner in Europe as Germany was once invited (or coerced). Certainly, that cannot happen while Milosevic and his gang are in power, but if Europe does not hold out a carrot they can remain in there forever.
115. colossus - June 21, 1999 - 12:11 PM PT
Danielle Scremac of the Serb government is pushing for the US and NATO to rebuild Serbia now.
In a pig's eye.
116. colossus - June 21, 1999 - 12:15 PM PT
I have long said that the Serbs live in a Slavic fantasy land of denial as the prior post confirms.
The following is from a Serb net correspondent of mine, Ceric Dragan of Nova Demokratija (whatever that is) in response to mine urging the Serbs to wake up and smell the blood as it were:
"I appreciate,also, your feelings,but I think you have inverse the problem.Why you did not say that Albanians (Schiptars) must to learn to live with Serbs, and when they will be stop to kill Serbian people. Like you know they made a terrorist organisation, and they kill already mutch more Albanians then serbs, and others, so what happenes with truth (if you really interested in that)"
117. colossus - June 21, 1999 - 12:18 PM PT
NATO has held out the carrot Pelle. The idiots have offered to rebuild the Pig People if they get rid of Slobo et al.
Big deal. They shouldn't shelter him and they should first give some concrete indication that they are willing to live like Europeans.
118. colossus - June 21, 1999 - 12:22 PM PT
The problem with the "just turn Slobo over" proposal is that it rests on a false understanding of the Serb people. The people support what happened in Kosova. They should first offer to help rebuild what they destroyed in Kosova.
119. colossus - June 21, 1999 - 12:26 PM PT
BELGRADE (Reuters) - Police in Belgrade broke up protests by angry Kosovo Serbs Monday as Serbia's umbrella opposition group demanded early elections and democratic change.
British Prime Minister Tony Blair challenged the population of Serbia to oust President Slobodan Milosevic, saying they could no longer turn a blind eye to their country's alleged atrocities in Kosovo.
120. EricCartman1 - June 21, 1999 - 12:34 PM PT
Au:
"[Getting the KLA to disarm w]on't be easy. About as tough as getting the IRA to disarm. Nobody had the wherewithal to disarm them involuntarily."
Supposedly the KLA is a relatively new group; organized within the last several years. While they certainly have made themselves a presence in Kosovo, I doubt they are as firmly entrenched as the IRA, which has been going for 90 years or so. Also, many Irish-Americans lend financial and material support to the IRA; it's unlikely there would be anything comparable to that in the relatively small Albanian immigrant community.
The KLA may be able to count on further donations from the Muslim community, but with NATO looking over their shoulder, chances are that the KLA's reputed drug smuggling would have to stop. Given the conditions of their region, obviously the KLA has to rely on significant extra-national funding, certainly to a far greater degree than the IRA.
121. LadyChaos - June 21, 1999 - 1:10 PM PT
The Serb people might very well overthrow Milosevic, but for the wrong reasons. They may turn against him for having lost Kosovo, but not for the crimes committed against the Kosovar Albanians.
Where's Belgrade-Rosetta, these days? Even s/he can't deny the truth of Serb crimes against humanity.
122. EricCartman1 - June 21, 1999 - 1:43 PM PT
LC:
They might overthrow him for the wrong reasons, but it would be a start. People (and nations) rarely do the right thing for the right reasons. Maybe if they can get rid of Milosevic, and elect a moderate, some sort of recognition of what they've done can occur.
123. pellenilsson - June 21, 1999 - 1:59 PM PT
colossus
I think your serbophobia clouds your judgement. I also think that you wouldn't deny that the harsh conditions imposed on Germany after WWI was one of the factors that shaped future events. BTW, why are you absent from that thread?
124. colossus - June 21, 1999 - 2:16 PM PT
Hell Pelle give me a break!
I was just away from the WWI Thread for one day!
No I wouldn't deny that the harsh conditions imposed after WWI on the German people (whom I love and admire :)) was a major cause of WWII.
Likewise I would not deny that the failure to occupy the country and rub their noses in their poop and convince them that they had in fact lost the war and were not victims of the international "Jewsmedia" (as the Serbs are now claiming) was also a cause of WWII.
I have long said that the Serb state should be crushed totally. Or have I not been clear on the point?
125. colossus - June 21, 1999 - 2:17 PM PT
"serbophobia"
You bet your bottom kroner on that Pelle!
126. colossus - June 21, 1999 - 2:20 PM PT
Where's my bitch?
No not the lard Ass of Spades and not my poquito Paco either.
I mean Rosie O'Slerb! She's been MIA for days.
Was she really fire-bombing synagogues in Sacramento last w.e.?
Am I next?
127. pellenilsson - June 21, 1999 - 2:22 PM PT
Coloussus
Let's discuss how the Firma engineered the end of the war to foster the myth.
But now I'm off to bed.
128. colossus - June 21, 1999 - 5:25 PM PT
Pelle:
Off to bed? Isn't this the Night of the White Nights in your icy neck of the woods?
Apropos more of the travel thread and White Nights
Have you ever been to Petrograd? Is it useful for understanding the War, aside from the Revolution of course?
How are its museums etc on the Great Patriotic War?
129. colossus - June 21, 1999 - 6:09 PM PT
Pelle's argument for rebuilding Serbia - that we did it for Germany and Japan - is a result of his blindered political correctness .
Its a disease that infects me as well for Serbia is NOT Japan or Germany. They are ethnologically inferior - very inferior. They are also ringed by nations that because they know them, they loathe them.
Slovenia - hate 'em
Montenegro - hate 'em
Hungary - hate 'em
Bulgaria - hate 'em
Albanian - hate 'em
Kosova - hate 'em
Bosnia - hate 'em
Macedonia - [whispered] hate 'em
Croatia - want to exterminate 'em
Russia - You idiots still think we ever cared about those pig farmers?
Just as long as the Serb bacillus can be contained, why spend a nickel on these assholes?
130. colossus - June 21, 1999 - 6:10 PM PT
Oops forgot Rumania - hate 'em
131. jroth2 - June 22, 1999 - 9:10 AM PT
The one convincing argument for reconstruction of Serbia is predicated on the removal of Milosevich from office and his trial for war crimes. If those objectives are met it would be useful to reintegrate Serbs into a Balkans community- not only to help reduce current tensions, but to serve as an example to other nations: If you are against us you get bombed, cooperate and you enjoy the fruits of peace and prosperity. As I said a long time ago on the predecesor Thread, an Empire can afford only a limited number of interventions. Best that it establish a useful reputation when it does intervene- hopefully this reduces the need to spend blood and treasure at a later point.
132. colossus - June 22, 1999 - 9:58 AM PT
I still say let 'em freeze in the dark. They aren't Germans or Japanese, they are Serbians surrounded by enemies. I'd waste not a Kroner on the bastard were I a Swedish taxpayer, not a red cent as it is.
Let Russia rebuild Serbia or the Euros if they feel they must.
133. colossus - June 22, 1999 - 9:59 AM PT
KLA Leader Asks Serbs to Return to Democratic Kosova
134. colossus - June 22, 1999 - 10:14 AM PT
The Washington Post ran a front page article today on Pentagon Wars - The Big Bucks After Kosova.
Among the issues being discussed, we've covered most on this and the predecessor thread, Slaughter the Slimy Slerbs:
- death of the assinine Powell Doctrine
- return of limited war doctrines
- is the combined arms approach always applicable?
Click Here!
135. jroth2 - June 22, 1999 - 10:21 AM PT
If they freeze in the dark it will simply be one more chapter in their national mythology of perseverance against all odds. Better that we use the carrot as well as the stick so that we don't have to go through this again. I believe that there is at least a reasonable chance that the Serbians, once rid of Milosevich, could be brought around as were the Germans.
No one has the appetite for a war of extermination against them; further punishment runs the risk of destroying the quite remarkable public and elite cohesion which Nato achieved despite much evidence to the contrary. Believe me when I say there will be future wars when that cohesion will be required. Why waste the good will that now exists?
They've felt the American stick- now let the Europeans worry about the reconstruction once Milosevich is gone.
136. Ronski - June 22, 1999 - 10:29 AM PT
Re:Message #132
Krona, singular; kronor, plural.
137. colossus - June 22, 1999 - 10:56 AM PT
Jroth -
These are Serbs. They are not Germans.
Let me clarify. A group of bad ass French Knights were off to do battle with the Duke of Hapsburg circa 1371 when the Duke crossed the Rhine, the knights were reported to say:
"If we were to cross the Rhine, we could never return before we were dead or captured by our enemies the Germans, who are men without pity"
Nobody has EVER said that of a Serb.
They are totally insignificant. You cannot buy off their delusions of being victims with EuroDollars. You can only do that with an occupying force.
We fought a limited war with limited objectives. We didn't fight a war for Serbia. Let them perish. In fact, they owe US reparations.
Screw 'em.
138. colossus - June 22, 1999 - 10:58 AM PT
Thanks Ronski....If I'm going to ethnographically insult, best I spell correctly.
Krona
Kronor
Let the Swedes rebuild Serbia. It can become their protectorate.
139. colossus - June 22, 1999 - 12:57 PM PT
Before the War I said it; during the war I trumpeted it, and now the LATimes confirms it.
On equal footing with the humanitarian aims in Kosova is the issue of NATO power.
In Saletan's words, a force more powerful than Hitler at his zenith.
That's what has the Ruskies and the Chinese scared shitless.
More Here!
140. bottomfdr - June 22, 1999 - 7:21 PM PT
The Army and the Air Force have tremendous fire power to be sure. The Russians are no doubt impressed. One of our heavy armored divisions, if used all out, has to be a force to be reckoned with. But the question that bothers me is whether we the people are willing to risk the men. What good is all that hardware is we can't bear to see any one killed? That is the very reason that Clinton did not dare risk the Apaches in this combat. One of them might have gotten shot down. We have heard for years and years what a wonder this chopper is, but when it came to crunch time, Clinton waffled.
141. bottomfdr - June 22, 1999 - 7:30 PM PT
Let's see. It's getting harder and harder to get young men to serve. Those who are trained are not extending. American lives have gotten so precious that we dare not risk them. Sounds like it's time to hire foreign mercenaries to fill the ranks and take the risks. Just as the Romans did 2000 years ago. Of course, that was one of the reasons for their decline. Wither America?
142. jroth2 - June 22, 1999 - 8:27 PM PT
I trust there will always be a certain proportion of young males who believe they are invulnerable and will serve in combat. Remember that even in a modern armoured division only 30% are actual combat troops; for the remainder military service has become something akin to a job.
The real issue is the public's unwillingness to see blood shed. Witness the national trauma- interviews with families and friends, opining psychologists, etc.- over the capture of 3 soldiers.
The best example of the dichotomy is the operation in Somalia, as recounted in _Black Hawk Down_ by Mark Bowden. The units involved, Rangers and Delta Force, were strictly volunteer and actually eagerly anticipated combat. When the raid on Aideed's HQ went south the men involved fought quite well, killing scores of Somaliis for each American casualty and largely accomplishing the mission. But the televised pictures of American corpses being dragged through the streets were too much for the public and the President.
Actually we are becoming much like the British during the height of the Empire. We have a very small force (less than 20 divisional equivalents) of professional combat soldiers and Marines. We augment their effectiveness through unparalleled command, control and intelligence- not to mention high quality weapons. We also have unquestioned command of sea and air. But our staying power in a Korea sized conflict would be very limited. With respect to land forces we are much like the BEF in 1914; good quality but few in number.
The extent to which technology and capital can substitute for numbers must, inevitably, reach the point of diminishing returns. Lacking a well-trained reserve or even token conscription we must weigh our interventions carefully that we not lose the small cadre we have. In this analysis an enemy willing to accept attrition even at high ratios would pose a most serious threat. Fortunately only China seems to qualify at this point.
143. AuNaturel - June 22, 1999 - 9:05 PM PT
jroth2:
Saddam was willing to suffer attrition at a very high ratio and it did him little good - except the ratio was *so* high we stopped before the job was truly done for fear of Arab reaction. We are prisoners of political chains of our own making.
144. AuNaturel - June 22, 1999 - 9:13 PM PT
Now that the KLA has at least agreed to disband, the next step is the development of a genuine native defense force. The Kosavar will not be happy indefinitely occupied by NATO. Failure to develop such a native force will only give KLA excuse not to completely disband and disarm.
We can have a major impact on the future of such a force by overseeing its creation now. Later on we'll have much less influence.
145. jroth2 - June 22, 1999 - 9:17 PM PT
I regret that we can not count on future opponents making the same sort of strategic mistakes Saddam did. On the tactical level our forces did very well against similar units though we never fully engaged the Republican Guard. The desert was also an optimum theater in which to deploy heavy armour. There will be other geographies less convenient.
146. AuNaturel - June 22, 1999 - 9:26 PM PT
"In Saletan's words, a force more powerful than Hitler at his zenith."
Saletan should keep his mouth shut in order to preserve what little credibility he has. Western military budgets have been dropping steadily. So has the percentage of population as men at arms. The Ruskies have more than enough nuke to deter any first strike and know that NATO isn't about to risk millions of casualties in a conventional war. (Forget that NATO doesn't even have that many troops to start with.) After all, they bent over backwards to avoid *even one* casualty in Kosova.
Ruskies are far more frightened of internal collapse and civil war than NATO. No matter how you spell NATO, it doesn't come up Chechnya. You can easily argue that western aid is the only thing keeping them together.
The Chinese aren't scared of anything. Nobody is in a position to threaten them short of a nuclear strike and that ain't gonna happen.
147. wexxford1 - June 22, 1999 - 9:27 PM PT
Divide-and-conquer, kiddies, is what this Kosovo thingy is all abaht.
The sick-making " interviews " with the little people by our high-powered millionaire reporters are awsome in their Amurrican stupidity ." So, how dy'a feel now that freedom is here ?" . Yerss, those left-over turds from the phony cold war days serve to show that the morons can be kept marching without any new PR scripts. WEhen this nonsense is ordered off the radar screen, up will come another stir-em-up session. Looks as if the Greeks versus Turks thingy can be stirred up for the front pages within hours-- there's Cyprus sitting there as the trigger .May have to bomb that baby. That'll give the file clerks at TV networks a need for footage of WWII and Enosis battles . In a line, folks, bored people can be kept marhing for ever with these little " wars ". Keep the morons marching. And the dummies dancing .
148. AuNaturel - June 22, 1999 - 9:28 PM PT
jroth:
Yes Saddam did make lots of mistakes. I wish every petty dictator could be counted upon to do likewise.
149. AuNaturel - June 22, 1999 - 9:32 PM PT
jroth;
It is difficult to fully engage any unit that is fleeing as fast as it can and leaving behind a line with just enough conscripts to slow you down slightly. Perhaps the smartest thing that ever Saddam ordered.
150. wexxford1 - June 22, 1999 - 9:37 PM PT
Bottomfdr,baby. Its our nervousness about officially proclaiming the role of the American Empire that has our rulers jumpy,not the sight of body bags dripping blood. Our Empire is now shouldering the Rooskies out of the territory they won in WW II( remember,lads, it cost them 20 million dead and how many injured etc.). We can't allow the Krauts to finance and run the Balkans,so in we go with a few Tommies and those ridiculous plummy-voice faggot Brit generals straight from Central Casting. To straighten out Kosovo,Why not have Washington declare that the American Empire is planting the stars and striped in Central Europe in the interests of people's capitalism. That'll rev up the arms business. You got a better script that'll satisfy all hands.?
151. jroth2 - June 23, 1999 - 6:25 AM PT
Why, wexxford?
Because noone wants to use the "Empire" word openly. Any reasonably educated European, including the Russians, understands that we run an empire- after all for decades they have seen their domestic and international policies affected by our decisions. But the American masses simply think there is America- a country- and we have a bunch of other countries around us. Some of these countries are friendly (Britain) and some just want money (Mideast) and some need our help now and then (Kosovars/Kuwait).
Even in elite foreign policy circles there is a tendency to use euphemisms like "alliance structure" or "international community". The effect is that when the demands of Empire require blood and treasure, we must 'spin' the circumstances of each case to satisfy the public's requirement that the intervention be for some good reason- good in the moral, not geo-political, sense of the word.
Now quite obviously that spin is sometimes a very tortured affair. But as long as the body count is low and the gun camera footage exciting the public is OK with it all.
152. bottomfdr - June 23, 1999 - 8:28 AM PT
There are two good solutions to the problem of body bags with American dead in them. America could hire a mercenary army to do the real fighting and dying. Our military could train them and do all the safe stuff.That would keep the American electorate happy. The politicians could do their preferred fence straddling act and everybody is happy. Another solution is to continue to develope stand-off weapons so that our military could continue to fight, but from an even greater and safer distance.
The third solution is to make challenging NATO/ America so expensive in terms of damage inflicted that a would-be agressor or disturber of the peace simply would not even try.
It could be that the the NATO victory in Yugoslavia will go a long way towards the third solution.
153. bottomfdr - June 23, 1999 - 8:41 AM PT
aggressor, of course. I'm having a lot of trouble posting on the Fray. It keeps freezing on me so that I can't finish what I started or am unable to make corrections before posting. I have to just turn my computer off and reboot. Not worth it.
154. colossus - June 23, 1999 - 2:41 PM PT
"Saletan should keep his mouth shut in order to preserve what little credibility he has. Western military budgets have been dropping steadily."
And Russian military budget's? Actually European military budgets have increased.
Of course AU does not challenge but merely scoffs at Saltetan's assertion which is correct.
There never has been such a geopolitical power in the Center of Europe - ever. Not even Hitler. Not even Charlemagne.
In as much as Europe and the West are and for the forseeable future will remain the economic center of the universe, I really don't know what AU's point is except that perhaps we should threaten China some how and have done with it or perhaps we should have 1.5 million men under arms or perhaps we should spend 7.5% instead of 3.5% of our GNP building missile defense and starships.
True there is a marked unwillingness in the US, in Russia and in Europe generally to suffer 30,000,000 casualties.
And the point again is?
155. colossus - June 23, 1999 - 2:45 PM PT
WRT death, destruction and permanent war.
No nation on earth, with the exception of the Chinese (and there I am operating on the basis of stereotype not fact) would be willing to incur 1/10,000th of the casualties in WWI.
Thus the development of "smart weaponry" for lack of a better term is the sine qua non of power and conventional deterrence in the 21st Century.
156. colossus - June 23, 1999 - 7:40 PM PT
"{Daily Telegraph}THE Pentagon confirmed yesterday that it believes Russian mercenaries worked hand-in-hand with Serbian ethnic cleansers in Kosovo.
The Defence Department said it did not know what part, if any, the Russians played in the murder of ethnic Albanians, but it did not suspect that their actions had Moscow's blessing. Ken Bacon, the chief Pentagon spokesman, said: "We certainly know that Russians participated, Russian volunteers - mercenaries we believe - did participate with paramilitary and other Serb forces."
Washington's tentative confirmation adds force to persistent rumours during the 78-day Nato bombing campaign that Russians were working on the ground with those doing Slobodan Milosevic's dirty work.
The Pentagon would not, however, confirm a report in Newsday on Tuesday that the Russians helped to slaughter hundreds of Kosovars. The New York newspaper reported: "The Russians, who numbered about 60, had participated as volunteers in the killing of hundreds of ethnic Albanians and the destruction of towns and villages around Prizren, according to ethnic Albanians and a source in the Serb security apparatus."
157. LadyChaos - June 23, 1999 - 8:22 PM PT
bottomfdr,
Speaking as one who was decidedly hawkish on this campaign, I was relieved when it was decided not to deploy the Apaches. My understanding has long been that they were designed for close combat support of ground operations. Helicopters generate such a large area of heat that they are sitting ducks for shoulder-fired, heat-seeking missiles. It would have been like handing the Serbs a PR coup on a platter.
158. aunaturel - June 24, 1999 - 2:24 PM PT
Per the KLA disamament agreement they are prohibited from keep arms of 12.7 mm bore or larger plus automatic rifles and all missiles, mines, grenades or other explosives. I suppose this means they can keep their $3000 sniper rifles. Too bad they'll have to turn in their Barrets, tho.
On the other hand, who is to know what weapons need to be turned in? I doubt the KLA kept an inventory, particulary of captured ordinance.
Except for the limit on weapon caliber, sounds like gun control in the US as of 1960.
159. aunaturel - June 24, 1999 - 2:50 PM PT
"Of course AU does not challenge but merely scoffs at Saltetan's assertion which is correct."
Saletan's assertion is bullshit.
NATO is not on the march, invading countries for leibensraum.
NATO is not a threat to Russia, has no interest in conquering Russia. Hitler was and certainly tried.
NATO's conventional forces are widely dispersed and mostly in garrison. A serious effort to mobilize would take many months and could not be done in secret.
Any attack on Russia that looked like it might succeed would result in the Russian use of tactical nukes, if not strategic ones. Scratch off Western Europe and the US as fit for human habitation for at least a couple of decades.
NATO is no threat to Russia (regardless of Saletan's foolish opinion) and certainly no monolithic central European geopolitical power to surpass Hitler's Germany or Charlamagne.
160. Trialshark - June 25, 1999 - 9:52 AM PT
The Hungarians finally get to give Ivan the finger ...
***
Secret Russian Troop Deployment Thwarted
By Robert G. Kaiser and David Hoffman
Washington Post Staff Writers
Friday, June 25, 1999; Page A1
Russia's surprise deployment of 200 troops to the Pristina airport on June 12 was part of a scheme to send into Kosovo a contingent of 1,000 or more men who could have tried to stake out a Russian zone in the northwest sector of the province, Western intelligence analysts have concluded.
The carefully planned operation was thwarted when the governments of Hungary, Bulgaria and Romania, prodded by the United States, denied Russian requests to use their airspace to fly more Russians into Kosovo ...
Western analysts still dispute whether Moscow's intention was to seize a Russian zone in Kosovo or simply to send in more troops to strengthen Russia's hand in negotiating peacekeeping arrangements. Either way, the unilateral deployment of a large contingent would have caused "grievous harm to support for Russia" in Washington, said one senior State Department official.
The Russians nearly succeeded in adding to their forces on the ground, briefly winning permission from Hungary for six IL-76 military transport planes to fly over that country on June 11, before it was clear that the Russians were sending 200 men from their Bosnian peacekeeping force to the airport in Pristina, Kosovo's capital. But before those Ilyushins could get into the air, the United States asked Hungary to deny the Russians use of its airspace, and the Hungarians agreed, telling the Russians that only an act of the Hungarian parliament could grant overflight rights ...
***
Read the entire story here.
161. jroth2 - June 25, 1999 - 1:04 PM PT
Very interesting. At the time I thought it significant that the Russians seized the Pristina airport. I thought they could use it as an entry point for airborne forces.
Notable that the Bulgarians also seem to have not cooperated.
162. jroth2 - June 25, 1999 - 1:16 PM PT
AuNatural,
I largely agree with your analysis. Nato's power is considerable, but essentially defensive. The major power projection assets remain American, as does the complex web of space and ground based satellites which make possible the precision bombing.
Even including America, Nato does not have the land forces to go off invading. And why should they (the Europeans) want to go off conquering? The only major threat they face is a cut-off of oil, and only the US has the triphibious forces needed to resolve such a crisis.
This is why I doubt that a European equivalent to the American military will emerge any time soon; they have no need and there is sufficient similarity of interests that in the direst circumstances they can call on America, again.
163. AuNaturel - June 25, 1999 - 1:30 PM PT
colossus:
"Of course AU does not challenge but merely scoffs at Saltetan's assertion which is correct."
Look up "challenge" in the dictionary sometime. I didn't just "challenge" it, I *demolished* it by showing how far it strays from reality. Twice now.
You do like to troll, don't you?
164. Trialshark - June 25, 1999 - 1:32 PM PT
jroth2 --
The vengeance factor for the Hungarians was what made me chuckle, but the Bulgarian refusal was also interesting. When I was in the intelligence business a while back, the Bulgarians had a reputation for being Soviet lapdogs ... possibly because they were the only Slavic people who actually looked *up* to the Russians.
Clearly, they're over that now.
165. Wombat - June 25, 1999 - 1:52 PM PT
Those countries that are not in NATO want to join NATO, and will not do anything that might piss NATO off. Allowing the Russians to use their air space would have pissed NATO off.
166. jroth2 - June 25, 1999 - 1:53 PM PT
TS,
Perhaps we have some common background. I spent most of the 80's in Eastern Europe. I hated Sofia- my take was the Bulgarians combined the worst traits of the Russians and the Turks. I remember their surveillance was very obvious; clicking phone lines and the same 'waitress' that I'd later see on the street.
167. jroth2 - June 25, 1999 - 1:58 PM PT
Wombat,
Agreed. But it also means they have decided they have little to fear from the Russians. WRT the "Saletan" argument, it seems that the West now has the East European buffer zone for which so many Soviets died in WWII.
168. Wombat - June 25, 1999 - 2:09 PM PT
JRoth:
Quite right. Militarily Russia has become a hollow--yet nuclear--shell.
169. AuNaturel - June 25, 1999 - 2:09 PM PT
jroth:
I don't think it was just the buffer zone they died for. Stalin wanted the USSR to be a global power. He needed eastern Europe and a piece of Germany to do this. The captured German, Polish and Czech factories and German scientists were at least as important as the land. Getting a toehold in the west to potentially launch operations from was also vital.
Swapping E. Germany for Austria wasn't such a bad trade after all.
170. HardyHarHar - June 25, 1999 - 2:13 PM PT
And now....their navy can't even pay its coal bills. (shit, I guess the simple fact that their navy even has "coal bills" is all that needs repeating....)
171. HardyHarHar - June 25, 1999 - 2:15 PM PT
Oh, and the fact that their Average Life Expectancy has actually decreased to pre WWII levels....
172. jroth2 - June 25, 1999 - 2:20 PM PT
It's a very good question how far West Stalin wanted, or could have, come. Certainly he was willing to stir up trouble throughout Western Europe.
Another factor- according to the Alan Bullock book _Hitler and Stalin- is that he was very aware of having been in Lenin's shadow, and wanted an impressive set of his own accomplishments.
In any case, you sometimes have to feel for the Russians who have sacrificed so much and now even lack the pyschological rewards of Great Power status to ameliorate a wretched material existence.
After 20 years of watching the Russians I am now more concerned with the Chinese 10-15 years down the road.
173. AuNaturel - June 25, 1999 - 2:29 PM PT
" Militarily Russia has become a hollow--yet nuclear--shell."
I think this has as much to do with morale as material shortages. If they thought they were defending the motherland they'd fight like hell regardless, particularly if they had s general like Lebed that they respected. Right now the troops do not believe in their conmmanders or their government.
174. colossus - June 25, 1999 - 2:30 PM PT
Clintoon just finished a marathon, tour de force of a news conference in which IMO he confirmed Bob Dole's statement that the Kosovars were the real casualties of last year's impeachment nonsense.
In as cogent an explanation as I have heard, Clinton stated NATO's rationale for kicking Serb ass and for not really giving a damn whether Serbia is rebuilt or not:
- Chriac, Blair, Schroeder, Clinton all saw Kosova through the prism of Bosnia. "Unless you understand Bosnia, you cannot understand how NATO made the decision to act in Kosova" He went on to explain that europe dicked around with Slobo for 4 years, 250,000 killed, 2.5 million displaced and still wound up with Srebenica. He said that the NATO leaders saw what was coming and decided that they would not let Slobo fuck with them again.
- Clinton wasted a Serb journalist who was talking about NATO war crimes. "We went to unprecedented lengths to avoid civilian casualties. The civilian deaths in Kosova don't even come close to the very low numbers achieved in Desert Storm. Nato's campaign was severely limited by operational rules for pilots to avoid civilian deaths."
- Clinton left no doubt that as long as he was President and the killers remained in safety, Serbia would not get a nickel. He as much as said that if the Serbs like what Slobo did fine - fuck 'em.
175. colossus - June 25, 1999 - 2:33 PM PT
Message #167
Jr
I antagonize Serbs and Russians on the Russia Today and LA Times sites with NATO's "Steel Curtain" - "A steel curtain is desending over Europe".
If humanitarian reasons don't grab 'ya, the power politics implications of the Kosova operation are just as compelling
176. colossus - June 25, 1999 - 2:34 PM PT
US Marines just slaughtered another Serb in the US Zone.
I regret to inform the Fray that unconfirmed reports claim that RosettaStone was shot in the twat.
177. colossus - June 25, 1999 - 2:38 PM PT
Russians didn't die for a buffer zone. They didn't die to become a world power.
That's all ex post facto bull.
The Russians died because they wanted to waste as many Germans as they could. In case you forget, they had already lost over 20,000,000 people and most of their industry and agriculture.
They wanted - PAYBACK not Empire not buffer.
178. AuNaturel - June 25, 1999 - 2:45 PM PT
"After 20 years of watching the Russians I am now more concerned with the Chinese 10-15 years down the road."
The Chinese don't worry me. Either they will embrace freedom or their forward progress will stall. Russia's fate awaits them too.
179. AuNaturel - June 25, 1999 - 2:51 PM PT
collasal colostomy:
The most important reason the US had for directly entering the war in Europe was to keep Stalin from marching all the way to the English channel.
180. jroth2 - June 25, 1999 - 3:18 PM PT
In 1943 Stalin told Tito, and I paraphrase; "What is different about this war is that the winner imposes his social system on the land conquered. It can not be otherwise."
In 1945 he had two generals compete to enter Berlin, despite casualties. The battle for Berlin itself was titanic and cost 200K Soviet casualties.
Revenge may well have been one motive, but of all the major WWII leaders Stalin had the clearest vision of what he wanted to achieve; a Europe in which the Soviet Union would be safe, surrounded by compliant allies, and the 'social system' extended as far as possible. He was encouraged in his ambitions by the contradictory messages received from the US regarding the post-war geo-political arrangements in Europe. This is not to excuse his actions, simply to say that he perceived an opportunity and took it.
181. jroth2 - June 25, 1999 - 3:19 PM PT
Colossus,
BTW, where is the Russia Today site?
182. colossus - June 25, 1999 - 4:12 PM PT
Jroth2 -
I will obtain the link directly.
First though, wrt rebuilding Slerbia, Clinton has it half right. Its not a problem of Slobo or the murderous leadership, its a problem of the pig Slerb people as I have been saying ad nauseum - Slobo's Willing Executioners.
Now at least Clinton seems to be discarding the fiction that this is a "leadership" problem:
Not a Fucking Dime!
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The United States will not give Serbia ``one red cent'' to rebuild unless the Serbs show remorse for atrocities by the forces of Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic, President Clinton said Friday.
``They are going to have to come to grips with what Milosevic ordered in
Kosovo... If they think it's OK, they can make that decision, but I wouldn't
give them one red cent for reconstruction,'' he told a news conference.
Clinton linked Serbian remorse with the future of Milosevic, who has been indicted by an International Criminal Tribunal for war crimes allegedly committed by his forces in Kosovo.
The United States announced Thursday that it would pay up to $5 million for information leading to the arrest and prosecution of Milosevic and other indicted war criminals.
Clinton said: ``They (the Serbs) are going to have to come out of denial and then they're going to have to decide whether they support his leadership or not.''
183. colossus - June 25, 1999 - 4:18 PM PT
Here you go JR -
Russia Today
A slow loader, only slightly more advanced than MSN's Slate Technology.
184. colossus - June 25, 1999 - 4:26 PM PT
"colossus:
"Of course AU does not challenge but merely scoffs at
Saltetan's assertion which is correct."
Look up "challenge" in the dictionary sometime. I didn't just
"challenge" it, I *demolished* it by showing how far it
strays from reality. Twice now.
You do like to troll, don't you?"
AU -
You certainly like to huff and puff, like to cackle that you did this and that when you did nothing of the kind. You never did any such thing. In Message #146 all you said was that western military budgets had been "dropping steadily".
As I pointed out in Message #154 that is not only untrue, it is only half the comparison. Western military spending is magnitudes more than all possible adversaries *combined*. Likewise in Message #155 I pointed out that your statements about the West not wanting to take casualities is another half truth. Some demolition job.
Wake me when the demolition starts.
When it comes to your proving something, anything -
Where's the Beef?
185. colossus - June 25, 1999 - 4:29 PM PT
Jroth2,
The Rice Balls are clearly the Yellow Menace. Thank God Rosie wasted the Evil Jade eh?
I think the Chinese see the 21st Century as the Age of the Pork Bun and by subsidizing them at a 15 billion or so a year clip (trade deficit), we may make their dreams come true.
That said, only a missile or naval threat is worth worryin about.
186. colossus - June 25, 1999 - 4:32 PM PT
Message #164
TS:
While the Bulgars may have been USSR lapdogs, they have been Slerb haters even longer.
Any people that bears unremitting hatred of Serbia can't be all bad IMO.
187. colossus - June 25, 1999 - 4:36 PM PT
"The most important reason the US had for directly entering
the war in Europe was to keep Stalin from marching all the
way to the English channel."
Now there's a novel one. Where do you get this shit AU? You will not find a single historical fact to show that the US entered the war to stop Stalin from bathing in the English channel. You will not find a single historical fact that the Soviets ever, prior to 1944 entertained any thought of post war Europe. They were too busy getting killed.
You are an idiot and phenomenally ignorant.
188. colossus - June 25, 1999 - 4:40 PM PT
AU having "demolished" Saletan's argument that NATO's power in Europe is the greatest since Attila the Hun, say's he's not concerned about the Chinese.
Who are you concerned about? Who challenges NATO's power today - Belorus?
189. colossus - June 25, 1999 - 4:45 PM PT
It is a logical fallacy commonly indulged in history discussions to say that just because something happened, ie Russia raced to Berlin, that it had to happen. The technical name "post hoc ergo propter hoc".
I can think of no clearer illustration that the discussion above imputing some grand design to Russia where clearly none existed. The first Red Army campaign undertaken with the explicit aim of expanding European control did not occur until June 1944 when the Soviets planned and launched Operation Bagration.
The Stavka of the Supreme High Command actually considered 2 other ops which were rejected not exclusively for operational reasons but also because they did not promise the greatest yeild in terms of Western expansion.
190. colossus - June 25, 1999 - 4:49 PM PT
An officer of paratroops stationed in Novgorod - $68/mo.
Stationed in Pristina - $1000/mo.
191. colossus - June 25, 1999 - 4:51 PM PT
"It's a very good question how far West Stalin wanted, or could have, come."
Not really.
He came as far west as he could have but not as far West as he wanted to.
192. colossus - June 25, 1999 - 4:56 PM PT
An unexpected benefit of Kosova:
Monetenegro Easing Away from Serbia
Of course, Clinton planned all this fantastic NATO power, Serb isolation, the Nato Steel Curtain, and now - the Montenegrin Independence Movement - just like Stalin did when he was a little boy in Georgia.
193. ACEofSPADES - June 25, 1999 - 5:01 PM PT
Hey Jexster:
What did William Salaten say about Clinton today? I hope it's something nice.
194. colossus - June 25, 1999 - 5:39 PM PT
Classic Maskirovka - a Soviet Specialty!
"[post] reconstruction of the events surrounding the Russians' unexpected deployment into Kosovo, based on reporting in Washington, Moscow and Brussels, indicates that the Russian operation was thoroughly planned, deliberately deceptive and considerably more ambitious than its accomplishments would suggest."
As described a Stavka hallmark!
195. colossus - June 25, 1999 - 5:41 PM PT
Gee Ace - I dunno what Saletan's said recently about Clinton. Unlike you, Fat Boy occupies only a small corner of my world view .
196. colossus - June 25, 1999 - 6:07 PM PT
"We made numerous mistakes," said Holbrooke, who was the American ambassador to Germany in the early years of the Clinton Administration.
"Had the United States responded vigorously and appropriately early in the crisis, we might have avoided three of the four wars that the Belgrade leadership has caused."
"By the time I became directly involved in the issue, at the end of 1994, three of the four wars had already taken place," he said. "The first one, in Slovenia, was a week long. The second one with Croatia was a mess beyond messes. And by the time I got involved, the war was raging out of control in Bosnia, where over 300,000 people were killed."
And he was right. The Administration screwed up by not taking Slobo out in 94-95.
Now how about the GOP Policy Committee. What explanation does it have for being listed by the Serbian Foreign Ministry two weeks ago as among "Our Best Foreign Friends"?
197. AuNaturel - June 26, 1999 - 5:09 PM PT
colossus:
In 1943 is became pretty obvious that the Soviets were going to win within a couple of years. That was when the tide clearly turned against the Germans. We invaded France in '44. But even in '40 it was pretty clear that if we kept the British and the Russians supplied long enough (remember leand-lease?), the Germans would be defeated. And we were going to do just that. The question then rises as to why we invaded Europe. All we had to do was wait and Hitler would have been dead meat.
Compared to the Eastern front, the western front was almost unpopulated by German soldiers. In '43 Hitler had at most a half million troops, mostly ill trained and aged Volksgrenadiers, in the west. Hitler had lost millions against the Soviets and despite this the Soviets were stronger than ever. Should the Germans capitulate to the Russians or be outright defeated, NOTHING could stop Stalin's men from bathing in the English channel. We had to place a major force on the continent to give the Soviets pause. The free French and the British weren't up to it alone, so it was up to us to save Europe from another marauding monster.
We got our place at the table at Yalta. We got our share of the German scientists. The Soviets stopped right where we told them to. The ultimate defeat of the Soviets took anther 40 years and millions of lives but I think it was worth it.
198. AuNaturel - June 26, 1999 - 5:12 PM PT
colossus:
"An unexpected benefit of Kosova:"
If you think that was unexpected, you do have very low expectations indeed. As for:
"NATO's power in Europe is the greatest since Attila the Hun"
NATO's "power" is almost entirely unrealized and most of it is thousands of miles away in the United States. The effort to "take on" the Russians would be a thousand times that of Serbia, require months to years of very public preparation and act to unify the Russians like nothing else could. No where in the west can the will be found to do such a thing. Without will, there is no power.
Regardless, the Conventional Armed Forces in Europe (CFE) Treaty (March 1999) limits the amount of military either side can deploy between the Atlantic and the Urals to levels far below what would be needed for either side to mount a successful assault. The nuclear arsenals of France, UK and China combined are trivialized by the remaining Russian arsenal which is quite capable of tactically utterly destroying any attacking army before it got to Russian soil and strategically detroying every major city in Europe, the US and China.
The Chinese are no threat to anyone but themselves and their immediate southern neighbors. As long as we retain a strong navy and a significant nuclear deterrent they are nothing to worry about even then. The rest is all low to mid-level geopolitical arm wrestling.
You are being argumentative as a way to avoid admitting error. Troll away until you come up with something intelligent or factual to say.
199. AuNaturel - June 26, 1999 - 5:19 PM PT
"It's a very good question how far West Stalin wanted, or could have, come."
With the combined free French, British and US armies standing in his way, he came exactly as far as we allowed him to. Without the US he would have gone exactly as far as he wanted to, at the minimum taking all of Germany and Austria. If he'd been willing to piss the rest of the Allies off and take everything to the Spanish border, who was going to stop him?
200. TrialShark - June 27, 1999 - 8:36 AM PT
Rep. Helen Chenoweth, on how Kosovo might lead to the dismemberment of the United States by the mighty Benelux nations and their allies:
" ... the Kosovo precedent would justify military intervention by the 'international community' to settle such conflicts within our own borders. Consider the case of the southwestern United States, a region referred to as 'Aztlan,' the mythical homeland of the Aztecs ... It is not difficult to foresee a future scenario in which the 'international community' authorizes the use of military force in support of 'autonomy' for Aztlan, in the same way that the war in Yugoslavia was launched in support of 'autonomy' for an Albanian Muslim-dominated Kosovo."
In "The New American," Vol. 15, No. 9, April 26, 1999.