The Mote Archive - International

International pt. 7

5035. PelleNilsson - 10/27/2004 7:24:05 AM

Well, as they used to say in pre-WWI Vienna, the situation is hopeless but not serious.

5036. Marc-Albert - 10/27/2004 8:11:54 AM

I have never heard his integrity questioned by anyone, on the left or the right : he is regarded as a sort of secular saint.

Hmm.. I'm always doubtful about allegations of sainthood, be that in Costa Rica or France, particularly in France...

Pierre Joxe is supposed to have received money from Saddam Hussein in... 1988. A cheap shot by the Americans, considering that in those years, they were relatively chummy with Hussein too..

That said, a goggle search shows that Joxe was treasurer for the Socialist party during the re-election campaign of President Mitterrand in that year.

"Campaign treasurer", ahem! Now, virtually everybody close to Mitterrand during his second mandate has been accused of (and sometime condemned for) corruption practices.

Funny how all hell broke loose in France with the re-election of Mitterrand in 1988. Total Gallic cynicism. Under the indulgent autocratic rule of the Président de la République and his hand-picked premiers, the motto became Enrichissez-vous vite! (Get rich fast!).

5037. alistairconnor - 10/27/2004 9:36:50 AM

Haha! Euro-buggers stick it to Barroso and Buttiglione...

Barroso wimps out. Having found himself in an uncomfortable position (bent over, cheeks spread) before this afternoon's scheduled vote, he simpers:

"I need more time to look at this issue and to consult with the council... so that we can have strong support for the new commission."

Mr Buttiglione (left) has said he will not be standing down
Mr Barroso may now choose to reshuffle his commission line-up and put Mr Buttiglione in a less contentious portfolio or ask Italy to propose another candidate.

5038. alistairconnor - 10/29/2004 5:21:46 AM

Oh good! The Pope's stuck his oar in!

The Pope intervened yesterday in the EU's institutional impasse caused by MEPs' opposition to his close friend and confidant Rocco Buttiglione, an outspoken critic of gay and women's rights, as the new justice commissioner.
A day after José Manuel Barroso, the incoming commission president, staved off a defeat by MEPs by withdrawing his entire team, Pope John Paul called for a resolution of the crisis by "reciprocal respect in a spirit of goodwill".

The article notes that Buttiglione, in the 1960s, founded the ultra-conservative Communione e Liberazione group in 1968 to campaign against the secularisation of Italian and European society. So he was an obvious pick for justice commissioner! Radically opposed to the body of European legislation which he would have been charged to administer...

5039. alistairconnor - 10/29/2004 5:24:53 AM

The more I think about it, the more I bless Berlusconi's pointy head...

The nomination of Buttiglione was a calculated insult, a gratuitous provocation towards the European parliament. Barroso aggravated things by giving him the Justice portfolio. Buttiglione himself could still probably have got away with it by being discreet, but he laid it on thick...

And Barroso's whole house of cards came crashing down! Which is simply excellent...

5040. alistairconnor - 10/29/2004 5:39:40 AM

I was pretty unhappy about Barroso's proposed commission. For a number of reasons :

1) on balance, he minimised the power of commissioners from "Old Europe" (France, Germany etc), and promoted those from the Atlanticist members -- a dangerous game, at best.
2) the commission, overall, had a strong and clear "liberal" cast (in the European sense : less state, more free enterprise) -- this is partly in function of the commissioners nominated by member governments, but also a result of Barroso's choices of portfolios
3) Several nominees had clear conflicts of interest, others were clearly out of their depth. The net effect is to enhance the power of Barroso himself, but even more so, of the Council of Ministers.

This, I think, was his key strategy, and one assumes he had the tacit backing of member governments, who are always reluctant to surrender any real power to the European parliament. The successive EU treaties, and the future Constitution, give increasing powers to Parliament, but they are not letting go without a fight...

But due, in particular, to Barroso's incredible antagonistic arrogance (hey midgets! Rubber-stamp this!), the governments lost this round.

Today, the governments sign the European Constitution. It may or may not ever be ratified and come into application.

But I think that history may well record that the European Republic came into being in October 2004. Technically, because of the signature; but in reality, because of the birth of parliamentary accountability.

5041. alistairconnor - 10/29/2004 6:11:36 AM

Another reason I'm delighted with the outcome :

Although there is a clear right-wing majority in the EU parliament, the euro-Liberal group (centre right, more or less) was going to vote with the left against the Commission. This is because they are both secular and libertarian (in the sense of individual liberties), and Buttiglione was intolerable to them; but it's an excellent precedent. They are the pivotal group in the current Parliament, and clear political majorities can emerge as they vote sometimes with the left, sometimes with the right, on various issues.

Barroso tried a hysterical, and very counter-productive manoeuvre, the other day : he lectured the Parliament, saying that only anti-Euro extremists would vote against his commission. (This is because there is a group of far-right nationalists, Front National and so on, who will always vote against any Commission, on principle.) And it's true that this group were numerically necessary for the majority, and no doubt exult at the result. But they are wrong : this is a strengthening, not a weakening of Europe.

The relative majority, conservative/Christian democrat, can generally expect to have either the far right or the liberals with them. But in this case, the real majority of the day goes from the far left to the centre-right.

Now this short-lived majority is tearing itself apart, as the various groups turn on each other's commissioners : a couple of liberals will get the chop, and the Hungarian socialist too... but that's good. This is the proper process of parliamentary scrutiny, and the weak links will get the chop.

The result is that Barroso is going to have to persuade the governments to name acceptable candidates, and he will have to name them to acceptable positions.

5042. alistairconnor - 10/29/2004 6:13:51 AM

... what say my Euro-compatriots?

5043. Macnas - 10/29/2004 6:43:06 AM

In my poorly educated opinion, it is an essentially good thing.

I think Barroso was operating under the delusion that he could continue to operate a power block of his own devising while dressing it up under the democratic principles of the parliament.

The real outcome was that the parliament actually acted as such, in a democratic manner. The more often the likes of Barroso can be made aware of the fact that they have to act for everybody, the better.

5044. PelleNilsson - 10/29/2004 9:43:40 AM

I'm very much in two minds on this. On the one hand more power to the parliament = more democracy = good.

On the other hand, as a centre-left person living in a centre-left country I'm not happy about giving more power to a supra-national parliament dominated by the right.

On the third hand (yes, that's how complicated it is), the EU is not a federation with a parliamentary democracy and it could be argued that the parliament should not act as if it were.

5045. jexster - 10/29/2004 9:37:41 PM

I have long maintained that Sweden is the black heart of the Axis of Evil..now I have proof beyond a reasonable doubt that this is in fact the case:

He should let us know why we did not strike at Sweden,

Why indeed.

Case closed

5046. alistairConnor - 10/30/2004 4:08:05 PM

He did not strike at Sweden because that would be unsporting.

Sweden has no army, after all.

5047. angel-five - 10/30/2004 4:13:45 PM

Why did God invent the armadillo?

So George Bush would have something to eat on the half shell.

5048. Marc-Albert - 10/30/2004 5:21:50 PM

TU QUOQUE COSTA RICA? (part III)

José Maria Figueres, who resigned as Director General of the World Economic Forum yesterday

This is becoming ridiculous. Each time I access Jan José's La Nacion online, as I just did, this seems to spell trouble for some ex-president of Costa Rica.

Sure enough, José Maria Figueres - who filled the gap as president (1994-1998) between the administration of the two ex-presidents recently convicted of corruption – has just been accused of having received a $900,000 “consulting fee” from the ubiquitous Alcatel of France, as apparently did the secretary-general of his party.

Figueres was leader of the PLN, the party founded by his father “Don Pepe” (José Figueres Ferrer) considered the initiator of Costa Rica's democracy and modernisation.

Also yesterday: ex-President Rodriguez (and ex-Secretary General of the OAS) being driven to La Reforma Penitentiary.

Soon they may need to build a special Presidential Suite at La Reforma.

5049. Marc-Albert - 10/30/2004 5:41:35 PM

BTW, isn't the Director General of Transparency International also an ex-President of Costa Rica? :)

5050. Marc-Albert - 10/31/2004 5:33:05 PM

At this very moment 50 years ago, the start of "Bloody All Saints' Day": the first day of of what was soon to become known as la guerre d'Algérie.

5051. Marc-Albert - 11/1/2004 11:13:54 AM

French TV online a short time after la Toussaint Rouge (Bloody All Saints' Day) (select Quicktime, Real or Windows Media)

5052. SnowOwl - 11/3/2004 3:08:09 PM

We've had our own little bit of political drama down here.

A Cabinet Minister, who took a golden handshake he'd said publicly that he would refuse has had to give up his portfolio and is relegated to the back benches. He's also suspected of failing to declare the severance pay to the IRD and a number of other irregularities and is under investigation by the Serious Fraud Office.

What makes it difficult for the government is that he's a Maori, and the recent formation of a new Maori political party means that our present government has to tread very carefully around issues involving Maori. If Tamihere's forced to resign it would almost certainly upset urban Maori and a by-election could threaten the government's majority.

5053. ElliottRW - 11/4/2004 2:27:00 PM

All,

I trying to guage Mote interest in questions about the as-yet-hypothetical post-Castro Cuba.

First, what is likely to happen if Castro pulls an Arafat and goes to Paris for heart surgery?

Second, if the transition of power in Cuba is not peaceful, can/will/should the Bush White House intervene?

Third, if the transition of power in Cuba is peaceful, how will/should U.S. policy toward Cuba change?

Here is the economist magazine backgrounder on Cuba.

5054. concerned - 11/4/2004 3:46:31 PM

First, what is likely to happen if Castro pulls an Arafat and goes to Paris for heart surgery?

Depends on whether or not it's successful.

Second, if the transition of power in Cuba is not peaceful, can/will/should the Bush White House intervene?

If it gets to the point where, due to deteriorating conditions, thousands of Cubans are leaving Cuba and illegally immigrating to the US, the US should consider some sort of direct action. Otherwise, the US should probably not do so.

Third, if the transition of power in Cuba is peaceful, how will/should U.S. policy toward Cuba change?

Depends on the sort of government replaces Castro. The more it honors human rights and the democratic process, the more the US should encourage it. IAC, most trade embargos with Cuba should be dropped after Castro exits stage left.

5055. Jenerator - 11/4/2004 4:37:24 PM

Elliot,

I'd be interested in reading your new thread.

5056. ElliottRW - 11/4/2004 4:46:02 PM

Depends on whether or not it's successful.
Ok, here are some alternatives to consider: 1) Castro good-as-new, 2) Castro given three weeks to live, 3) Castro in a coma, 4) Castro ok, but significantly weakened.

If it gets to the point where, due to deteriorating conditions, thousands of Cubans are leaving Cuba and illegally immigrating to the US, the US should consider some sort of direct action.
As an aside, does anyone know what has to happen for people fleeing Cuba to become legal refugees?

Depends on the sort of government replaces Castro. The more it honors human rights and the democratic process, the more the US should encourage it. IAC, most trade embargos with Cuba should be dropped after Castro exits stage left.
My guess is that the only government that would replace Castro peacefully would be one headed by First Vice President Gen. Raul Castro. I doubt we will see Glasnost from Raul anytime soon. What we might see, however, is a gradual abandonment of wacky communist rhetoric. Cuba may very well become more like the People's Republic of China--increased economic liberalisation, but little in the way of real political freedom.

5057. ElliottRW - 11/4/2004 4:48:36 PM

Thanks for the vote, Jen. Let's see what develops.

5058. concerned - 11/4/2004 5:14:53 PM

Re. 5056 -

I'd estimate: 1 & 4, business as usual, 2 & 3, probably look for Raul dictatoring the tin pot as you mentioned for a few years.

5059. robertjayb - 11/6/2004 1:23:17 PM

Ivory Coast warplanes (?) kill 8 French troops...

ABIDJAN (Reuters) - Ivory Coast warplanes killed eight French soldiers and wounded 23 when they bombed a French base in the rebel-held north on Saturday.

The French military retaliated by destroying the two Ivorian Sukhoi fighter jets when they returned to the airport in the capital Yamoussoukro, military officials said.

...............................................

5060. Marc-Albert - 11/6/2004 7:42:08 PM

The Government forces bombing the French. That's rich, considering that two years ago those same French forces were sent to the Ivory Coast in order to protect the same Government from a rebel onslaught.

What a smashing success of French diplomacy.

5061. ElliottRW - 11/6/2004 8:41:04 PM

Xinhuanet reports that Chilean Army chief General Juan Cheyre has admitted to torture in the army committed during the military regime of Augusto Pinochet from 1973 to 1990.

Cheyre admitted there were torture, assassinations and disappearances of dissidents by the law-enforcement institutions under Pinochet's rule.

He said that under the Cold War circumstances, the logic of confrontation affected Chile, but added: "Human rights violations never, and to nobody, could have an ethical justification whatsoever."

That is a mildly interesting story. What I think is really interesting is that the Xinhuanet website feels that this is a "related story":

5062. robertjayb - 11/7/2004 5:44:41 PM

ABIDJAN, Ivory Coast (AP) - France rolled out overwhelming military force Sunday to put down an explosion of anti-French violence in its former West African colony, deploying troops, armoured vehicles, and helicopter gunships against machete-waving mobs that hunted house-to-house for foreigners.

In the second of two stunning days that stood to alter French-Ivory Coast relations - and perhaps Ivory Coast itself - French forces seized strategic control of the largest city, commandeering airports and posting gunboats under bridges in the commercial capital, Abidjan.

5063. robertjayb - 11/7/2004 5:44:41 PM

5064. robertjayb - 11/7/2004 5:47:54 PM

Link to Ivory Coast article...

5065. concerned - 11/8/2004 2:40:52 AM

Paris, France. November 6, 2004

AP and UPI reported that the French Government announced yesterday that it has raised its terror alert level from “run” to “hide”. The only 2 higher levels in France are “surrender” and “collaborate”.

The increased level was precipitated by the recent fire which destroyed one of France’s white flag factories, thus disabling much of their military.

5066. Marc-Albert - 11/8/2004 8:53:50 AM

We shall never surrender!

American Embassy, April 29 1975 - Taking a French leave.

5067. RickNelson - 11/8/2004 9:12:56 AM

concccccccccerned!

It is kinda funny, but still-

I admit to a chuckle, but that's not stopping my finger wagging atchya.

5068. RickNelson - 11/8/2004 9:14:59 AM

Damn, I can't stop chuckling at these disses.

But, come-awwwwwn!

Yah gotta know it's just not supposed to be funny.

5069. alistairconnor - 11/8/2004 9:30:18 AM

To be honest, I thought it was pretty funny too...

But the situation in Ivory Coast is serious. So stop smirking.

5070. RickNelson - 11/8/2004 9:42:41 AM

Do you see it as protecting the foreigners caught in the Ivory Coast's uprising, or is it something else?

5071. Macnas - 11/8/2004 9:56:25 AM

Good for a laugh but, you know, I never did understand where the US picked up this "French surrender-monkeys" idea.

In WW1, the earth of Belgium and Northern France became saturated with the blood of the French dead, as they lost 1,380,000 men defending their homeland, with total casualties including wounded amounting to 5,600,000.
In WW2, their antiquated army was dissected by the most modern and aggressive army in the world at that time. If we were to look for a comparison today, it would be the Iraqi army up against the US. Don't forget, the valiant British were busy being beaten around Scandinavia along with the French before they took a beating in France proper, and they didn’t last long either.

Even so, the French continued to fight throughout that war, most noticeably at Casino, where they took more ground in less time than any other allied group.

And in contemporary terms, god only knows what would be happening if Iraq was a possession of France. What happened in Algeria and Indochina would give us a clue. The French also pursue anti-terrorism vigorously, and always have.

No, I would not like to be on the wrong side of the French.

5072. alistairconnor - 11/8/2004 10:01:41 AM

I actually finally saw the Battle of Alger last night. Being the 50th anniversary of the Algerian war. Good film.

The salient point being that the French actually won it (the bastards!) -- they exterminated all the cells of resistance fighters/terrorists.

They of course lost the second battle of Alger : the popular uprising. Because you can only beat that by exterminating the population.

5073. RickNelson - 11/8/2004 10:03:11 AM

True Macnas. Napolean would definitely have something to say.

Those who fought off the might of Imperial Britian some time around the 16th century (I think?). Joan of Arc story.

And the art world!

And women!

And art and women, Ohhh yeah, and America!!!!

America may very well have never been!

Long live Lady Liberty!

5074. RickNelson - 11/8/2004 10:05:04 AM

Well alistair, as Macnas points out, Imperialist France and others were manifestly destined to fail!

All Imperialist regimes have failed on foreign ground, right?

5075. alistairconnor - 11/8/2004 10:06:26 AM

One of these days I will tell you about my terrorist friend. Although he didn't plant any bombs himself, he apparently made a few.

He is French, he was a school teacher in southern Algeria fifty years ago, pretty apolitical. He ended up joining the Algerian National Liberation Front.

He's written a book about it, which is, at long last, to be published shortly. I suppose it helps that pretty much everyone mentioned in it is dead by now.

5076. Marc-Albert - 11/8/2004 10:40:22 AM

Mr B.D., now teaching in an upscale lycée in Paris:

Indeed, colonisation (of Algeria) has has its positive side. We did leave modern infrastructures, an eduction system, libraries, social services... Okay, only 10% of Algerians of schooling age were attending school, but that's better than nothing.

5077. alistairconnor - 11/8/2004 10:52:58 AM

Gee, Uncle M-A, you reckon colonialism was a bad thing?

Who wooda thunk.

5078. alistairconnor - 11/8/2004 10:58:32 AM

Back to Ivory Coast :

France is posing as an honest broker between the two sides in a civil war.

That may well be its true position, but who can be expected to believe it? France has been there forever, either running the show through a colonial administration, or more or less pulling strings behind the scenes. Last year, the French peace-keeping force effectively prevented the rebels from taking the capital; that's the usual French role these days, protecting the constitutional goverment, never mind if they are the scummiest of scumbags.

It seems obvious to me that someone's got to take over that peacekeeping role; it can't be France. In many cases, it can't be the African Union either : neighbouring countries have their own agendas. It ought to be the European Union.

I would like the EU to take over France's post-colonial positions en masse. That might or might not entail a major change of policies, but at least everything would be transparent and above board.

If only Sweden had an army.

5079. Wombat - 11/8/2004 11:00:07 AM

I now have the DVD of the Battle of Algiers. I am going to use it for the terrorism course that I will be teaching at Georgetown. The film is excellent, and the discs that have commentary are exteremely interesting as well.

5080. robertjayb - 11/8/2004 11:01:52 AM

Once upon a plane this naive, untraveled country boy asked the saried young woman next to him if the British hadn't left India with a useful, efficient and effective administrative system. Well, I tell you... she stopped just short of a snarling, spitting rage, but was quite eloquent on the depth of my ignorance.

Lesson learned: Don't go there.

5081. alistairconnor - 11/8/2004 11:05:29 AM

As for why Ivory Coast disintegrated :

I blame the IMF.

Who controls cocoa prices? Used to be the producing countries, more or less. Now, the international cocoa traders. Bottom falls out of economy; suddenly the migrant workers are unwelcome; crackpot theories about ethnic purity appear; and hey, civil war.

Protecting foreigners (mostly French) is part of the reason that French troops are there; but mostly, the French government is haunted by Rwanda. It is not at all far-fetched to imagine massacres on a similar scale in Ivory Coast, something that has been forestalled so far.

5082. Marc-Albert - 11/8/2004 4:27:26 PM

Gee, Uncle M-A, you reckon colonialism was a bad thing?

We..well..now that you mention it, I don't reckon at all that colonialism was a bad thing. Actually, I must say I have a soft spot for European colonialism.

As Georges Marchais would have said, I believe that colonialism has been "globalement positif", (of course, dear Georges was not really referring to colonialism).

In 1960 - I was 15 then - I had Tita (living right on rue Michelet in downtown Algier) and Roland, as my French pen palls living in Algeria. I suspect I was rather pro Algérie française then, although I was probably more interested in exchanging stamps than discoursing on the pros and cons of l'Algérie française.

I learned from Tita the meaning of the intriguing word 'plasticage', a neologism that was not yet listed in my dictionary.

5083. concerned - 11/8/2004 5:56:08 PM

It seems fairly clear to me that the extent to which colonialism has been 'good' or 'bad' for the colony (speaking in the past tense) depends largely on how well an infrastructure among the native population to continue to administer the country has been created, and how readily they 'take' to a nation based government. On one extreme, you have former(?) colonies like Hong Kong and Taiwan that are first rank economies - on the other, there are sub-saharan African and Arab countries where not much attempt has been made to transfer the reins of power in an orderly way and where the native tribalism has never been effectively supplanted by the nation-state.

Also, the perception among the native populace as to whom gains the profit regarding the extraction of the colony's resources has a large effect on the eventual economic success of the former colony. If foreign concerns have always stepped in and made the middleman profit without a native industry having developed to exploit the former colony's own resources, there is a much greater tendency by the native populace to condemn the former colonial power and a smaller probability that the former colony will expeditiously improve its standard of living through post-colonial economic progress.

5084. concerned - 11/8/2004 5:56:37 PM

5085. concerned - 11/8/2004 5:58:28 PM

Sorry about the double post. I got an error message the first time I clicked, ....so I backed up one page & clicked again.

5086. concerned - 11/8/2004 5:58:28 PM

Sorry about the double post. I got an error message the first time I clicked, ....so I backed up one page & clicked again.

5087. concerned - 11/8/2004 6:00:29 PM

Dunno how the second double post happened - general internet flakiness, I imagine.

5088. robertjayb - 11/10/2004 12:45:41 PM

Good Morning...We're here to loot...

ABIDJAN (Reuters) - The looters rang the doorbell, but their politeness did not last long.

Anne Chauvet was at home with her children on Sunday morning in Ivory Coast's main city Abidjan when youths woke them up. They were seeking revenge on former colonial power France after it destroyed most of the small Ivorian air force.

"They broke everything. We left everything behind," Chauvet, an American teacher married to a Frenchman, said at Abidjan airport on Wednesday as she waited for a flight along with hundreds of other foreigners fleeing days of mob violence.

5089. pseudoerasmus - 11/10/2004 12:59:29 PM

#5084 shows that Concerned's alimentary, urinary and excretory functions are slowly merging to create a hypercloaca.

5090. pseudoerasmus - 11/10/2004 1:00:21 PM

Also, Concerned should first learn to write basic coherent sentences before pronouncing upon any subject.

5091. sakonige - 11/10/2004 4:31:30 PM

hey! pseudoerasmus. What a nice surprise. You mentioned you would be off-line for a couple of months.

I haven't finished The Eternal Frontier yet, as I am mired in other reading, but am certainly am enjoying it. Thinking in terms of millions of years is somehow very relaxing. And I must confess I get a smile from thinking of you engrossed in the evolution of oreodonts and pecan trees. Thank you so much for recommending the book.

I hope you'll stay around and chat a little bit. Did you notice that marjoribanks moved back to India?

5092. concerned - 11/12/2004 4:56:11 AM

Re. 5089, 90 -

yadda yadda

5093. concerned - 11/12/2004 5:01:01 AM

The Death of the Dutch?

Another damning indictment of socialist multiculturalism. The Dutch are beginning to flee their own country as a result, with other native of Western European countries sure to follow.

As a result of seeing articles such as this, in the US, I favor an increased emphasis on the English Language educationally and for official use.

5094. concerned - 11/12/2004 5:05:29 AM

Earlier this year, the Dutch government became the first Western state to admit that the multicultural experiment, the biggest socialist fraud ever to be foisted on countries since the Soviet one, is a colossal failure.

Just a bit late on that call, unfortunately. But, that's the Left for you.

And what is the response of the oh-so-clever Dutch leftists to the multicultural mess they have created? Like after the collapse of communism in Eastern Europe, they have been either silent or offered only more of the same.

The effete, clueless and ineffective Left.

5095. Wombat - 11/12/2004 7:06:42 AM

Concerned's echo chamber continues to work.

5096. Magoseph - 11/12/2004 8:45:49 AM

What do you think about the following handwritten letter to King George?

His Excellency
Mr. George W. Bush
President of the United States of America
Paris, November 3, 2004

Mr. President,

Dear George,

Both personally and on behalf of France, I would like to express my most sincere congratulations upon your re-election as president of the United States of America .

It is my hope that your second term will provide an opportunity to strengthen the French-American friendship. The destiny of our two peoples has been intimately connected since the earliest days of American independence. The ceremonies marking the 60th anniversary of D-Day were a stunning tribute to the American soldiers who fell on the beaches of Normandy for our freedom and that of Europe .

It is in a spirit of dialogue, mutual esteem and respect that we must continue to expand our cooperation, our common battle against terrorism and our joint efforts to promote freedom and democracy.

We will not be able to find satisfactory answers to the many challenges we are facing today without a close transatlantic partnership. The United States and France are called upon to play an essential role in that regard. We share the same ambition of guaranteeing peace, security and prosperity, in a spirit of solidarity, for the greatest number of people. I am convinced that together we can succeed.

Please accept, Mr. President, the expression of my highest consideration [handwritten:] and my warmest regards.

Jacques Chirac

5097. Macnas - 11/12/2004 9:53:20 AM

I've yet to read any unbiased synopsis of the Dutch report, on the web so far it is all Ranting Right blogs and the like who have picked it up and spun it.

There are, undoubtedly, true points that we can pick out of the mud that Frontpage and others mix in with this report. I agree with some of the findings, such as the language issue.

However, the Frontpage article, as is usually the case, runs away with itself and starts heading off on tangents to horizons imagined. A European army of muslim gunmen? An "I.R.A.-style guerilla war"? the Frontpage columnist forgets that the war in N.I. was only possible due to the support base in the south of the island, not the catholic "ghettos"

5098. Wombat - 11/12/2004 10:01:06 AM

Macnas:

It is an accurate reflection of Concerned's "thought" processes, which reinforces his preexisting biases. Why would you expect anything else?

5099. Macnas - 11/12/2004 10:19:02 AM

I'm always willing to debate with con, he has a mind all of his own.

I just find the likes of Frontpage exploitative and cynically so.

5100. concerned - 11/12/2004 10:21:00 AM

Concerned's echo chamber continues to work.

Which is more than you can say for Dutch society. Ready to convert to Islam?

5101. concerned - 11/12/2004 10:24:14 AM

Wombat probably will never really get over his humiliation over having been wrong about the near term future of BMD when we discussed it a few years back. I make allowances for that.

5102. Wombat - 11/12/2004 10:33:22 AM

If we want to compare "humiliations" Concerned, I'll be happy to come back to your thinking on the Monroe Doctrine, US participation in World War I, and how Socialist party voters won the 1933 German election for Hitler.

Do bear in mind that the article you cited while attempting to "rub in" your claims vis-a-vis missile defense earlier said a great deal about using US vessels as pickets to detect missile launches and nothing about carrying missiles that can shoot down ICBMs during the launch phase, which was what you have claimed. I also contend that the Navy has shelved attempts to adapt its exiting AA missiles for that purpose, which you have yet to dispute.

5103. Macnas - 11/12/2004 10:34:18 AM

There is no fear of Dutch society con, there will always be the underlying fascism to keep them pure.

I'm only joking in part, Holland will turf you out of the country if it sees fit, quicker than any other country. Except maybe Switzerland.

As for Dutch people leaving, I'd put it to you that they have always been on the move. During the 70's and 80's we had many of them relocate here. Not so many anymore, probably due to property prices I'd suspect.

5104. concerned - 11/12/2004 10:38:08 AM

Re. 5099 -

Thanks for having the perception to notice that. It's a little frustrating to deal with a pack of PC ostriches such as Wombat is who have their heads in the sand. Makes you want to kick their asses.

You can certainly find something to object about the tone of the Front Page article, but unless its facts are egregiously wrong, what will any reasonable extrapolation of the demographic trends in the Netherlands lead to? If there isn't substantial assimilation of the Islamic minority, they will eventually either influence Dutch governance or become massively discriminated against - and, either way, among other developments, Left Wing PC multicultural ideals will be most thoroughly discredited.

5105. concerned - 11/12/2004 10:50:30 AM

Wrt the Monroe Doctrine, I sufficiently backed up my view point by showing how US pressure generally dissuaded European involvement in the New World through the middle of the nineteenth century and helped drive the French out of Mexico upon the cessation of the US Civil War which occurrence was the only reason they dared install the Maximilian and Carlotta in the first place.

US involvement in WWI came late but was significant, breaking the years long deadlock on the Western Front, which was my essential point.

5106. Wombat - 11/12/2004 10:54:00 AM

If you say so...

5107. Macnas - 11/12/2004 10:58:35 AM

Ah con, it's only the web, and it's not worth getting too het up about it.

I actually would very much like to know the facts as presented in the Dutch report, but cannot find it (even if I did, 2500 pages? yeah like I'm going to thrash through that) , or as I said earlier, any proper synopsis of same.

I do not know that there is much of a reversal possible wrt the trend of the stratification of islamic/non-islamic cultures in Dutch society. I tend to think that a basic enforcement of language and the nations laws and civil rights is the best that can be done in these matters.

In England, 'though cultural differences are very marked, you find that the use of english as the common tongue is widespread among the muslim community, and there is no doubt that it helps to make society function better.

With regard to the islamic minority influencing Dutch governance, well, I don't know if you've spent any time in Holland, but they are not as laid back and doped out as you might think. They talk a good liberal show and indeed have some of the most relaxed laws in the world wrt some social issues, but they are hard as coffin nails underneath it and will not be influenced by anyone.

By the same token, the danger of massive discrimination is, I think, lower in Holland than in anywhere else. The Dutch may not be happy with the laws as they are now, and may seek to change them, but until they do, they will adhere to them, because it is the law.
If and when they do change said laws, it will be done in a careful manner.

5108. concerned - 11/12/2004 11:18:27 AM

Well, the Dutch have hardly justified their reputation for perspicacity regarding this issue, given their foolish, naive PC behavior.

5109. jexster - 11/13/2004 2:05:28 PM

The architects of Bush's foreign policy have a new 'checklist' of tasks for the Bush second term. It includes taking on not only the 'axis of evil,' but also 'Old Europe' and China.

NeoCon (Death)Wish List

5110. robertjayb - 11/15/2004 12:06:15 AM

Iran to suspend Uranium enrichment...

15 November 2004

Iran has agreed to suspend its uranium enrichment programme in an attempt to allay fears that it was being used to build nuclear weapons.

Hassan Rohani, Iran's chief nuclear negotiator, told the United Nations nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), that Iran would freeze all activities associated with its uranium enrichment programme.

The agreement is expected to be made public today, when the final report of a two-year IAEA investigation into Iran's nuclear programme is also due to be published. The United States claims that Iran has been secretly developing weapons-grade uranium for the past 20 years under cover of its nuclear power programme.

The announcement follows weeks of negotiations with EU representatives.

(The Independent)

5111. alistairconnor - 11/15/2004 5:53:59 AM

Iran / enrichment : I reckon this is a first-class result, given the current regional climate.

Of course, Iran will get their bomb, eventually. This will slow them down a bit; but more importantly, it will increase the probability that they will be a trustworthy nuclear power, when they do get it.

The alternative, as apparently promoted by the US, is a North Korean type standoff. A confrontational approach would push them to accelerate their program, and immensely strengthen the hand of the hard right within the regime. This EU deal is clearly a victory for the moderates, i.e. the centre right, who are thereby more likely to keep the regime evolving, maintaining contact with society. It improves the chances for long-term stability and modernisation of Iran.

5112. PelleNilsson - 11/15/2004 6:19:54 AM

I guess most people know already, but it may be worth pointing out that under the non-proliferation treaty it is perfectly legitimate for Iran to enrich uranium. It has now given up that right, at least temporarily, and will of course expect some substantial quid pro.

5113. Wombat - 11/15/2004 9:57:58 AM

I expect the religious-security state apparat in Iran is already attempting to figure out ways to circumvent the agreement

5114. jexster - 11/15/2004 7:27:54 PM

Welcome to the new cold war

It's Chirac vs. Cheney, SUVs vs. minicars, and pommes frites vs. freedom fries in the new transatlantic culture war. But here's what you don't know: In the global conflict for moral and economic supremacy, Europe is winning

Bush and Cheney bet that the IraQ war would divide Europe for decate - Lost big time

5115. jexster - 11/15/2004 7:30:38 PM

Furthermore, the Iraq war became a galvanizing and radicalizing event for an entire generation of younger Europeans and, in Reid's judgment, led them to see themselves as Europeans, above and beyond their national identities. While the European political elites dithered in the spring of 2003, the European people streamed into the streets by the millions, in a nearly unanimous rejection of the Iraq war in particular and the interventionist Bush foreign policy agenda in general. (And, for good measure, what most Europeans perceive as America's promiscuously wasteful culture of burgers, SUVs and obesity.) Opinion polls revealed an explosion of anti-American sentiment, even in nations like Britain, Italy and Poland that remained officially within the "coalition of the willing." In several European countries, the United States is viewed as more dangerous to world peace than Iran and North Korea, and George W. Bush may be even less popular in Scandinavia, for example, than he is in the Arab world.

5116. jexster - 11/15/2004 7:33:30 PM

Scandinavia..root of all evils and preverted homosexual love

5117. jexster - 11/16/2004 11:39:33 PM

The Wages of Incompetence: Iran Forms New Alliance With China

5118. jexster - 11/18/2004 1:59:22 PM

Chirac's Attack Thought to Prefigure Major Shift in European Policy Toward the US

The unvarnished tone of Mr. Chirac's remarks surprised many people in the normally discreet diplomatic corridors of Europe. But several senior foreign policy analysts remarked that if Mr. Chirac's view of the Bush administration is borne out in the next four years, the weight of Europe may swing behind him.

"Chirac is in a fairly strong position," said Guillaume Parmentier, director of the French Center on the United States, an independent research organization at the French Institute of International Relations.

5119. Magoseph - 11/19/2004 8:41:48 AM

5120. jexster - 11/19/2004 3:48:28 PM

Commons motion to impeach Blair gets go-ahead

November 19: The parliamentary motion to impeach Tony Blair for "gross misconduct" over the war against Iraq will be published next Wednesday, the day after the Queen's speech

5121. Marc-Albert - 11/20/2004 11:03:54 AM

It was supposed to be a laid back affair: celebrating the 100th anniversary of the Entente Cordiale, centered on historical reminiscences, amiable plaisanteries on respective national culinary traditions, that sort of décontracté thing. Earlier this year, Queen Elizabeth went on a state visit to France. Then it was President Chirac’s turn to go on a state visit to Britain….. Ahemm..

French diplomacy at work: the country bumpkin at Oxford yesterday

Chirac, right and left, making, as a guest of the British government, disparaging and condescending remarks about his host (“I had counselled Mr. Blair to get something from Washington in return for Britain's support for the war. Well, Britain gave its support but I did not see much in return,"); making sundry smart-ass remarks ("that nice guy, I've forgotten his name, who talked about Old Europe").

Then, almost making a point of being quite late at official receptions given by the British government and the day after, at Windsor Castle. A premiere: Queen Elizabeth got tired of waiting on the porch and it was left to Prince alone to greet Jacques and Bernadette.

5122. Marc-Albert - 11/20/2004 11:04:24 AM

Then yesterday at Oxford, the country bumpkin declaring to an embarrassed audience that his visit at the University was the most agreeable moment of his stay in Britain.....

Excerpts of the Président de la République’s rambling speech at Oxford, before a somewhat startled audience:

«Trois millions de Français qui viennent prendre leur thé au Royaume-Uni, ça fait beaucoup de monde et beaucoup de thé», s'est-il ainsi exclamé drôlement avant de citer pêle-mêle Philippe Starck et Sylvie Guillem (installés en Grande-Bretagne), mais aussi Charlotte Rampling, John Galliano ou la navigatrice Ellen MacArthur – «Vous ne soupçonnez pas l'impact qu'elle a eu en France, c'est une déesse !». Emporté dans son élan, le président français a souligné que, dans le centre de la France dont il est originaire, «nombre de petits villages ont été sauvés par des Anglais». «Si vous allez dans ce pays et vous dites du mal des Anglais, les gens vont vous regarder stupéfaits : c'est un fou !» Et de conclure : «Ne vous laissez pas influencer par l'écume des vagues.»

Chirac, the British frog-baiter's dream come true.

5123. Marc-Albert - 11/20/2004 11:16:36 AM

One thing I know I will never read about is Tony Blair or George W. Bush on a state visit to France making snide remarks to the press about, say, the discomfiture of their host country's diplomacy in the Côte d'Ivoire.

5124. jexster - 11/20/2004 12:47:32 PM

He's one sharp country bumpkin...dumb as a fox

5125. robertjayb - 11/20/2004 1:20:05 PM

Tony gets grief over Iraq...(Guardian)

The parliamentary motion to impeach Tony Blair for "gross misconduct" over the war against Iraq will be published next Wednesday, the day after the Queen's speech.

It will be the first to be tabled in 198 years, since Lord Melville, a close friend of the then prime minister, William Pitt the younger, faced impeachment for misusing public money in running the Admiralty.
.................................................

Adam Price, the Plaid Cymru MP who launched the campaign for the motion, said yesterday: "This is the only way left to MPs to call the prime minister to account over his conduct in the war against Iraq."

5126. Marc-Albert - 11/20/2004 5:00:29 PM

I understand there are 25 members of parliament backing the motion. Or is it 26 by now?

5127. robertjayb - 11/20/2004 6:40:06 PM

Thirty, it says here. And what the hell is a Plaid Cymru?

BBC---Plaid Cymru's Adam Price said 30 MPs have agreed to sign the motion which charges Mr Blair with improper conduct.

5128. PelleNilsson - 11/21/2004 1:12:26 AM

I think it is a Welsh nationalist party.

5129. angel-five - 11/21/2004 1:18:18 AM

Too many vowels and not enough consonants.

5130. Marc-Albert - 11/21/2004 8:33:29 AM

Pwll Deri (pronounced Phull Derri)

Youth hostel at Pwll Deri, Wales. I stayed there for 2-3 days some 35 years ago. I must still have the B&W picture I took of almost the same view.

5131. Marc-Albert - 11/21/2004 4:23:02 PM

Chirac apologizing for being (as usual) late. A bored Philip saying: It's okay....

An excited Chirac and a bored Queen

5132. Marc-Albert - 11/21/2004 4:33:46 PM

Leaders of APEC countries in Santiago, Chile

It seems it's now become a habit to impose on world leaders to dress like clowns at international gatherings. A year ago in Japan, they all looked like pink flamingoes.

5133. alistairconnor - 11/22/2004 5:35:12 AM

There's Auntie Helen in the front row... that poncho thing actually suits her quite well.

5134. sakonige - 11/22/2004 2:17:13 PM

It seems it's now become a habit to impose on world leaders to dress like clowns at international gatherings.

I love this tradition! I hope someone is keeping a colleciton of these photos to turn into a book.

5135. SnowOwl - 11/22/2004 2:24:30 PM

There's Auntie Helen in the front row... that poncho thing actually suits her quite well.

It makes her look pregnant, but then it makes a lot of the men look pregnant as well.

5136. Macnas - 11/23/2004 5:09:04 AM

lookit GWB at the back "At home? we put these things under the saddle"

5137. Ulgine Barrows - 11/23/2004 5:39:54 AM

5130. Marc-Albert , I like to look at that.

5138. alistairconnor - 11/23/2004 12:01:44 PM

Showdown in the Ukraine

This is a knife-edge thing, with enormous repercussions -- it can really be a historical turning point. One wishes one could do something.

5139. arkymalarky - 11/23/2004 3:20:16 PM

Could you elaborate on that?

5140. alistairconnor - 11/24/2004 7:07:58 AM

Looks like the Old Guard blinked first

The forces in presence :

* Yanukovich, the anointed successor of the outgoing President. Authoritarian, heavy censorship, political prisoners, economic corruption etc. All the worst of the Soviet era, with widespread poverty as a bonus. Backed, obviously and heavily, by Moscow.
* Yushchenko, a competent economist, has aspirations to modernise and integrate with Europe, and symbolises the aspirations for change of the people.

The outgoing president, after threatening repression, now wants to "negotiate"... the electoral commission is going to announce a final result within a few hours : they previously announced that, having counted 99% of the vote, Yanukovich had a lead of 49 / 46%... massive fraud is manifest.

I suspect they're going to back down and announce that Yushchenko has won after all... the old guard have realised that the country will be ungovernable otherwise, and that they can't get away with clearing the streets of Kiev with machine guns.

5141. alistairconnor - 11/24/2004 7:14:57 AM

Why it's a turning point :

* If the Old Guard held on, they would have clamped down even harder, Russian hegenomy would be maintained, a cold shower for all eastern Europe.
* If the moderniser wins, then the Ukraine is on track for entry into the European Union. That's a one-way process, a guarantee of cementing in democracy and human rights. Ukranians, especially those of the west, have seen what has happened in Poland, and that's what they want.
* Most Ukranians are actually Russians, ethnically, linguistically etc. There is no effective border between the two countries. In the long run, Russia cannot help but be positively influenced.

5142. alistairconnor - 11/24/2004 10:32:06 AM

Here's a cool Ukranian blog : Le sabot post-moderne
-Authorities have begun violent action against peaceful protesters near the Presidential Admin building. 2 buses of special ops police units drove up and have moved on the demonstrators.

- The tent city has now reached as far as the Central Department Store on Kreshatik Street.

- The pro-Yanukovych tent city seems to be bleeding people at a quick rate. They either can't take the cold, or the heat. :)

- Provocateurs planted an "explosive" device in our tent city. Snipers were called in.

- There are reports of tanks approaching the city. This is still unconfirmed, and I'm skeptical about this one.

Stay tuned! The Revolution WILL be blogged.

5143. PelleNilsson - 11/25/2004 6:30:02 AM

The protestestors are trying for a repeat of the Georgia process, but then Russia acted as mediator. It is difficult to see it in that role in Ukraine. Lech Walesa is reportedly there but he has no clout.

5144. alistairconnor - 11/25/2004 7:00:20 AM

Still. Putin is back-pedalling a bit.

The fundamental problem is how to enable him to save face. He's already lost big time, whatever the outcome : he is seen to be committed to the hilt to backing a corrupt, authoritarian regime which has stolen the election. If they get away with it, it's very bad PR with respect to Russia's image. If they don't, he's seen to be severely weakened.

Ukranians are now so polarised that it's difficult to see a compromise solution. Civil war is increasingly likely.

Putin is having a summit with the EU today. The new entrants will not allow the EU to sell out the Ukranian democrats. They really need to hammer out some sort of compromise... but what can they offer Putin?

5145. Macnas - 11/25/2004 7:07:14 AM

But if it gets to the point of fighting on the streets, won't all that be a bit ....moot?

I don't think the new entrants will have anough influence, nor do I see them in having much interest/concern in the first place. About as much as the rest of the EU.

But maybe I'm being a bit of a crank about it.

5146. PelleNilsson - 11/25/2004 7:21:11 AM

From here it looks like the Baltic states and Poland are showing a very strong interest indeed. I don't think civil war is a possibility but it can certainly come to violence which is serious enough. There are some doubts that the regime can rely on the loyalty of the police and the armed forces but they can certainly mobilise and arm thugs of various kinds.

5147. alistairconnor - 11/25/2004 7:30:58 AM

On this Ukranian news site there are lots of stories of local commanders and local authorities declaring their loyalty to Yushcenko or pledging not to intervene against demonstrators...

The worst scenario would be an east/west split, ending in a de-facto partition.

5148. alistairconnor - 11/25/2004 7:35:42 AM

I think the eastern EU states and populations are likely to be very strongly motivated, they've been there. And I think you underestimate their influence, Mac -- the EU is ungovernable without their support.

There may be danger in too-strong partisan support from the EU. That will push the Russians into a defensive, nationalistic position, which would be ugly. The backward masses (who vote massively, and backwardly, for Putin) would not take kindly to losing a big chunk of "their" territory and population.

5149. Macnas - 11/25/2004 7:45:03 AM

I clearly need to read up on the eastern EU newbies and wannabees.

However, I don't think of the EU as a properly governable entity, more like a big corporation.

Anyhoo, I always got the impression that there was a lot of racial animosity between the russians and the ukranians? I understand what you are saying, but would the Putin voting punters really care that much?

5150. TheWizardOfWhimsy - 11/25/2004 9:49:28 AM

These Ukrainian thugs play rough. [I wonder when the Repugs will adopt their tactics?]

Vienna: What ails Viktor Yushchenko? As Ukraine's popular opposition leader claimed victory, the mystery surrounding an appearance-altering condition that twice prompted him to check into a Vienna hospital persisted. Mr Yushchenko has accused the Ukrainian authorities of poisoning him. His detractors suggested he had eaten bad sushi. Adding to the intrigue, the Austrian doctors who treated him have asked foreign experts to help determine if his symptoms may have been caused by toxins found in biological weapons.

Medical experts say they may never know what befell Mr Yushchenko. But the condition has dramatically changed his appearance since he entered Vienna's private Rudolfinerhaus clinic on September 10.

5151. robertjayb - 11/25/2004 3:18:43 PM

Court blocks inauguration...

KIEV, Nov 25 - (Reuters) - Ukraine's highest court on Thursday blocked the inauguration of the Moscow-backed prime minister as president, putting fresh wind in the sails of his liberal opponent who has led street protests to overturn his election.

The Supreme Court rejected official publication of results that showed Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovich had beaten Viktor Yushchenko in a run-off election on Sunday. The ruling effectively stopped Yanukovich being sworn in as head of state.

5152. PelleNilsson - 11/26/2004 3:14:18 AM

I wish I knew something about the historical background of that east-west division.

5153. alistairconnor - 11/26/2004 4:58:22 AM

... you mean apart from the obvious stuff?

Parts of the territory have never been Ukranian, e.g. Crimea. Western Ukraine used to be called Poland. The east is heavily industrialised, and the locals speak Russian and not Ukranian. The more agricultural west bore the brunt of Stalin's repression and the famine he engineered... the west has plenty of historical reasons for wanting to escape the intimate embrace of Russia.

5154. PelleNilsson - 11/26/2004 7:31:45 AM

If you by "western Ukraine" mean, say, the area west of Kiev you are wrong. Lviv and areas surrounding it were indeed Polish during the interwar period. The city was then called Lwov. But before then it was called Lemberg and was the capital of the historical province of Galizia, a part of Austria-Hungary. What I wonder about is that the divide shown on the map runs much further east than can be explained by 19th century developments.

5155. PelleNilsson - 11/27/2004 3:01:23 PM

According to BBC the Ukrainian parliament has declared the election invalid with a big majority. This has no formal, legal consequences but the political impact will be immense.

5156. wonkers2 - 11/27/2004 4:27:36 PM

Sounds like the Ukraine has a better court than the U.S.!

5157. alistairconnor - 11/29/2004 7:09:32 AM

There is an esoteric and arcane ceremony in preparation in Ireland.

It involves : a general, two politicians, two churchmen, a big pile of arms, an undisclosed location, an uncertain date.

It could be called : Laying the Troubles to Rest.

But it'll probably be cancelled at the last moment. The bride and groom (Rev. Ian Paisley and Gerry Adams -- and which is which eh??) are both very jittery, and (of course)! not speaking to each other.

But building trust...

5158. Macnas - 11/29/2004 7:52:03 AM

Do you know that GWB telephoned Paisely and Adams last week?

"Ian, I know y'all are democrats and such, but you also espouse the union, and that's good"

"Gerry, I feel close in my heart to y'all, being republicans and such. And don't give up your guns now, y'hear?"

5159. PelleNilsson - 11/29/2004 10:21:42 AM

Mr Paisley could to his country a final favour by having a heart attack.

5160. alistairconnor - 11/29/2004 10:41:28 AM

I fear that, like Arafat, he's the tree who hides the forest.

They've practically tamed him, he's ready to strike a deal... if he dropped dead (of untreated syphilis or whatever) it would probably take twenty years to train up a successor among the second-rank ayatollahs.

5161. jayackroyd - 11/29/2004 12:56:48 PM

You may or may not remember the post I put up about the Madrid attacks from a Spanish acquaintance. The same guy has just sent round an email urging support for a democratic result in the Ukraine. He notes, in that email, that the best place to follow events there is the Kiev Post.

5162. PelleNilsson - 11/29/2004 1:03:13 PM

Page not found.

5163. jayackroyd - 11/29/2004 1:55:57 PM

How about this?

5164. jayackroyd - 11/29/2004 1:56:32 PM

Thanks Pelle. I cut and pasted but must have grabbed a period or something.

5165. robertjayb - 11/29/2004 6:59:55 PM

How about fifteen minutes alone with Henry Kissinger...

SANTIAGO, Chile (AP) -- Three decades after being imprisoned and tortured during the military dictatorship of Gen. Augusto Pinochet, Mireya Garcia is among 27,000 Chileans who will finally get government compensation.

``It's very special for us, who were kept anonymous for almost 31 years, that the state admits that we were tortured,'' Garcia told The Associated Press Monday. ``Telling the nation that we were tortured is the first act of reparation. Little by little, this begins to be a healing process.''

5166. alistairConnor - 11/30/2004 4:18:20 PM

Ran across this on a Finnish site :
A freshly released European study indicates that the life values of the French are closest to those of the Finns.
The study was arranged by the European Social Survey (ESS), and involved interviews with a total of 40,000 people around Europe in late 2002 and early 2003. The results showed that Finnish and French women are especially close in their key attitudes.
The French and the Finns particularly agree that success, wealth, and prestige are values of very little importance, whereas equal treatment and care for other people and the environment are more significant.

Obvious really. They both start with the letter F.

One would expect similar correlations between the English and Estonians; Scots, Spaniards and Swedes; Portugese and Poles; Germans and Greeks.

5167. robertjayb - 11/30/2004 5:23:56 PM

Interesting. I met a Finn, a graduate student, through the spouse. He was here for a time and as many such students he wanted a car. I don't what Hannu finally selected but his stated preference was for a huge American V-8. He wanted to get out on our fine Texas highways (and they are fine*) and blow and go.

*Say what you will about instutionalized graft and cronyism, it works.

5168. robertjayb - 12/3/2004 12:06:08 PM

Supreme court voids disputed runoff election in Ukraine. CNN says there will be a revote in about three weeks.

5169. robertjayb - 12/3/2004 12:09:59 PM

Dec 3, 2004 — KIEV (Reuters) - Ukraine's Supreme Court ruled on Friday that a disputed presidential election officially won by Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovich was invalid.

Chairman Anatoly Yarema, delivering the court's ruling after five days of deliberations, said a "repeat vote" was required.

He said this ballot should take place three weeks counting from Dec. 5 — meaning Dec. 26 — suggesting it would be a re-run of last month's run-off vote which opposition candidate Viktor Yushchenko alleged was rigged by authorities.

Judges backed arguments by Yushchenko's camp, which have brought tens of thousands out on to the streets of the capital Kiev, that the vote had been subject to systematic fraud.

5170. alistairConnor - 12/3/2004 12:23:48 PM

Poor old Pooty-poot. First he insisted the election had to stand (and chided Europe and the US for interfering!), now he has fallen back on the idea of completely re-staging the elections rather than repeating the runoff... which would probably require a constitutional amendment...

... but he's not interfering.

More importantly, he's lost control and he's lost face. Better throw him a bone before he turns nasty.

5171. PelleNilsson - 12/4/2004 7:16:39 AM

The court's decision was a positive surprise. I had half expected that they would find a way to back out of the case. It remains to be seen if the Kuchma gang has any more cards to play.

5172. robertjayb - 12/4/2004 5:30:40 PM

Making love, not war...

(AP) - Vasyl Fylosov and Sofiya Kirichenko came to Kyiv from different regions to join round-the-clock protests in support of opposition presidential candidate Viktor Yushchenko.

Result: two golden rings and a bride's veil in the opposition's orange color.

5173. concerned - 12/4/2004 7:06:47 PM

I wasn't particularly in favor of allowing UN inspectors of the 2004 presidential election, but in hindsight, it seems likely to have been a net positive. It probably stifled Democrat electoral fraud to some extent, it has kept the LW crazies quieter than they would have been otherwise challenging the results, and the UN inspectors positive report now may have emboldened the Ukrainian Supreme Court to challenge the Russian electoral fraud.

5174. alistairConnor - 12/4/2004 9:03:46 PM

So you've had a sudden epiphany about multilateralism, just like GWB?

5175. concerned - 12/5/2004 1:06:18 AM

?????

I don't really buy the argument that GWB was not multilateralist - he is just pragmatically minded.

For instance, the greatest effects of signing onto the Kyoto Treaty are to make the signatory a hypocrite and to damage his nation's economy in the long run. In the case of the US, that's assuming that the Senate will ratify, and if they unanimously rejected it during x42's residency, why should GWB bother?

5176. judithathome - 12/5/2004 9:43:43 AM

For instance, the greatest effects of signing onto the Kyoto Treaty are to make the signatory a hypocrite and to damage his nation's economy in the long run.

Jeez, he didn't need to sign the Kyoto treaty to accomplish both those ends.

5177. alistairConnor - 12/5/2004 10:14:38 AM

For instance, invading Iraq was a supremely pragmatic decision.

... but that's all water the bridge. I am truly gratified that you and GWB (did you confer, or is it serendipitous?) implicitly acknowledge the error of your ways, and acknowledge virtue and value of building concensus in order to strengthen normative solutions in litigous situations.

5178. Marc-Albert - 12/5/2004 10:50:14 AM

Multilateralism à la française.

There is multilateralism, and then there is multilateralism, such as in the Ivory Coast's "multilateral" intervention. The French unilaterally intervened there over a year ago, unilaterally imposed the so-called Marcoussis Accords with no UN input whatsoever, and then, and only then, obtained quickly a pro forma imprimatur from the UN. Bingo! overnight the unilateral French intervention becomes "multilateral", thanks to the magic wand of the UN.

It was all a sham of course. The UN-sanctioned "multilateral" (a few (invisible) Nigerian troops were thrown in for appearance sake) intervention in the Ivory Coast has remained as unilaterally French as before, as was shown by recent events. Chirac did not even make the pretence of consulting the United Nations when he ordered the French expeditionary corps (the “Licorne”) to attack the Ivorian forces, etc. By its own admittance, the French army is acting in the Ivory Coast without the slightest supervision from the UN.

5179. alistairConnor - 12/5/2004 2:17:05 PM

Absolutely, and it's no surprise that it's a complete shambles. I applauded the original intervention - unilateral as it was - because it was necessary to act quickly to stop the civil war in its tracks (and it has to be conceded that the overall death toll has been, so far, remarkably low), so there is the excuse of pragmatism. But France has been lamentably reluctant to internationalise, and strong-arming the warring parties into an agreement that was never going to be applied was a dumb idea... after two years of stalemate, now everyone -- rebels and government -- has lost patience with the French, who clearly don't know what the hell to do next... so are internationalising as a last resort.

5180. concerned - 12/5/2004 10:46:11 PM

Given 5179, I am now confident that 5177 was only meant in jest:)

5181. alistairconnor - 12/6/2004 5:06:46 AM

You seem to have me confused with J Chirac...

Hell I didn't even vote for him.

5182. alistairconnor - 12/6/2004 7:13:31 AM

Shite. US embassy attacked in Saudi.

5183. jexster - 12/6/2004 12:36:08 PM

Just proves that Al Qaeda wanted Bush elected.

5184. robertjayb - 12/7/2004 12:00:42 AM

Finland leads school ratings...(BBC)

First results from the Program for International Student Assessment (PISA) study of 40 countries put Finland top in maths and reading and equal top in science.

PISA is a three-yearly appraisal of 15 year olds in the principal industrialised countries...

5185. robertjayb - 12/7/2004 1:05:37 AM

The U.S.? Don't ask.

American high school students have a poorer mastery of basic math concepts than their counterparts in most other leading industrialized nations, according to a major international survey released yesterday.

The PISA study, conducted every three years, ranked the United States 24th out of 29 countries in the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, a Paris-based group that represents the world's richest countries.

5186. Marc-Albert - 12/7/2004 10:53:23 AM

IMO, the results are somewhat twisted by the fact that PISA insists in including in its 40-country study minuscule city-states such as Singapore, Hong-Kong and Macao. Macao (No 6 on the best performers' list) is 3 square miles for Gods sake! Probably ten times smaller than the island of Montreal or Manhattan.

5187. alistairconnor - 12/7/2004 12:00:49 PM

Well, if it makes you feel better... take 'em out.

Holland isn't very big either. And Switzerland is nearly a micro-state too.

You see? Canada just jumped up several places.

5188. jayackroyd - 12/7/2004 12:12:06 PM

I have a question about the head scarf issue in France. Many observant male Jews, here anyway, always wear a yamulke. Are schoolboys banned from wearing them?

Also, what if a christian girl (or say a collection of christian girls) wore a head scarf. Would that be permitted? How about if the Muslim girls wore hooded sweatshirts?

5189. Marc-Albert - 12/7/2004 1:46:08 PM

I remember reading somewhere that Jewish students wearing the kipa were not bothered in the past. Keep in mind that religious Jews in France usually send there kids to private jewish shcools, where they can dress as they wish. There is a large number of Jewish schools in France.

5190. Marc-Albert - 12/7/2004 1:52:56 PM

Ah! Can we hope to benefit from a half-hour editing period for our posts in the coming year?

5191. jexster - 12/7/2004 1:54:02 PM

The Financial Times - The Witch Hunt Against Kofi Annan

5192. alistairConnor - 12/7/2004 1:58:04 PM

... you want half an hour a year to edit your posts?

OK, midnight to 0:30 on January 1.

But seriously... nay. Live with it.

5193. alistairConnor - 12/7/2004 2:06:13 PM

Jay: as M-A notes, the problem of observant Jews is pretty much theoretical. It might have been a bigger issue ten years ago, but since then, a lot of Jewish kids have been pulled out of the public schools their parents.

Come to think of it, strict dress code and religious observance appears to have increased quite a bit among French Jews over that period, in parallel with that of Muslims.

The biggest shift over recent months in this area is the "coming out" of Nicolas Sarkozy, a clever populist right-wing politician, and most likely a future president of France, with respect to official recognition of Islam. He wants to shift the laws with respect to the separation of church and state, to encourage a specifically national strand of Islam. In particular, he wants state funding to be available for building mosques...

I think he's probably right about this.

5194. jexster - 12/7/2004 11:12:15 PM

Bush's march to third world status...

The disappearing dollar

Dec 2nd 2004
From The Economist print edition

How long can it remain the world's most important reserve currency?

THE dollar has been the leading international currency for as long as most people can remember. But its dominant role can no longer be taken for granted. If America keeps on spending and borrowing at its present pace, the dollar will eventually lose its mighty status in international finance. And that would hurt: the privilege of being able to print the world's reserve currency, a privilege which is now at risk, allows America to borrow cheaply, and thus to spend much more than it earns, on far better terms than are available to others. Imagine you could write cheques that were accepted as payment but never cashed. That is what it amounts to. If you had been granted that ability, you might take care to hang on to it. America is taking no such care, and may come to regret it.

...

The dollar's loss of reserve-currency status would lead America's creditors to start cashing those cheques—and what an awful lot of cheques there are to cash. As that process gathered pace, the dollar could tumble further and further. American bond yields (long-term interest rates) would soar, quite likely causing a deep recession. Americans who favour a weak dollar should be careful what they wish for. Cutting the budget deficit looks cheap at the price.

5195. robertjayb - 12/8/2004 11:43:33 AM

Yushchenko was poisoned...(Times of London)

Hardball for sure...

MEDICAL experts have confirmed that Viktor Yushchenko, Ukraine’s opposition leader, was poisoned in an attempt on his life during election campaigning, the doctor who supervised his treatment at an Austrian clinic said yesterday.

Doctors at Vienna’s exclusive Rudolfinerhaus clinic are within days of identifying the substance that left Mr Yushchenko’s face disfigured with cysts and lesions, Nikolai Korpan told The Times in a telephone interview.

5196. TheWizardOfWhimsy - 12/8/2004 8:36:51 PM

5197. robertjayb - 12/11/2004 12:35:06 PM

Yushchenko poisoned by dioxin...(NYTimes)

VIENNA, Austria (AP) -- Dioxin poisoning caused the mysterious illness of Ukrainian presidential candidate Viktor Yushchenko, a doctor said Saturday, adding that the poison could have been put in his soup.

Yushchenko is now in satisfactory condition and dioxin levels in his liver have returned to normal, Dr. Michael Zimpfer, director of Vienna's private Rudolfinerhaus clinic, said at a news conference.

A series of tests run over the past 24 hours provided conclusive evidence of the poisoning, Zimpfer said.

5198. judithathome - 12/11/2004 12:58:00 PM

I guess he's left looking like that, however. Man, that is frightening, what happened to his face!

5199. Wombat - 12/11/2004 5:04:46 PM

I read that chloracne clears up in time. Nasty.

5200. robertjayb - 12/13/2004 12:37:36 PM

Kissinger can be a character witness...

SANTIAGO, Chile (Reuters) - A Chilean judge on Monday formally charged former dictator Agusto Pinochet with homicide and kidnapping in one of many pending cases related to human rights abuses committed during his 17-year rule.

5201. TheWizardOfWhimsy - 12/13/2004 5:30:57 PM

I found this to be a fascinating read . . .

5202. robertjayb - 12/13/2004 7:05:54 PM

Good stuff, Wiz. I was not aware that the Chalabis and the other usual suspects were so heavily involved.

5203. wonkers2 - 12/13/2004 7:49:11 PM

Yes, and Pinochet can be a character witness for Kissinger.

On this point, why can't TV anchors learn how to pronounce Pinochet's name correctly? (Pinochette, not Pinoshay.)

5204. wonkers2 - 12/13/2004 7:50:07 PM

(Pinochette, with the ch pronounched as in chop, that is.)

5205. TheWizardOfWhimsy - 12/14/2004 3:49:24 PM

Good stuff, Wiz. I was not aware that the Chalabis and the other usual suspects were so heavily involved.

I was surprised by some of the info in that piece as well. Robert and I just received an appreciative "thank you" from the staff at Frontline for providing them with the same link.

5206. robertjayb - 12/15/2004 5:18:25 PM

A lover and a nanny sink key Blair ally...

...lots of this going around it seems...

LONDON (Reuters) - Top government minister David Blunkett has resigned over a charge of abuse of office, ripping a hole in Prime Minister Tony Blair's government months before an expected general election.

Tough-talking Home Secretary Blunkett, who left the job in tears, was a staunch ally of Blair and his hardline views on crime and homeland security provided a powerful weapon against right-wing opposition.

Blair is expected to call an election in May and the departure of Blunkett, a straight-talker who has been blind since birth, sparked an untimely cabinet reshuffle.

"It's a very significant blow to Blair to lose a minister who shared all his instincts on law and order and who was personally extremely loyal to him," Blair biographer Philip Stephens told Reuters on Wednesday.

5207. TheWizardOfWhimsy - 12/15/2004 6:07:52 PM

Have you seen Steve Bell's take on it?

5208. alistairconnor - 12/16/2004 10:00:29 AM

ripping a hole in Prime Minister Tony Blair's government

he ripped a few 'holes in his fellow ministers too.

I've been following the story : a real soap opera. He's a nice guy, and a Good Man. Rather full of himself. But a fool for love, like all of us.

He had a long-running, semi-public affair with the Vanity Fair woman -- the sort of thing that is tolerated by the husband as long as appearances are respected -- but, it seems, tried to get her to go public and divorce. She presumably told him to grow up, and things turned nasty : he sued for access to her youngest child, of which he claims to be the father (also another, not yet born), and she, for want of anything better to hurt him with, leaked the story that he helped their nanny get visas.

As scandals go, it's pretty weak -- it's not alleged that he was employing illegal immigrants, as is so common among US politicians, merely that he fast-tracked a visa that would have gone through anyway.

5209. TheWizardOfWhimsy - 12/16/2004 10:57:30 AM

Passion in politics (and in life) usually ends in tears.

5210. PelleNilsson - 12/16/2004 11:40:34 AM

About now EU leader sit down toagree on a position regarding the start of negotiations with Turkey. It is likely to result in a go-ahead but with many conditions and caveats which Turkey may find demeaning. Then there is Cyprus which is threatening to veto the whole thing. These guys should be stomped upon very hard. It was they, the Greeks, who said no to the unification plan on which so many had spent so much time and effort. In my view they should never had been admitted.

5211. alistairconnor - 12/16/2004 12:12:42 PM

Agree about Cyprus... spoiled brats. (But Annan's arrangement gave them no incentive to go for reunification...)

Last night, Chirac talked Turkey on French TV. Trying to swing public opinion in favour (it is alleged to be against), despite the fact that nearly all of the right-wing politicians, and a large part of the left too, are against the entry of Turkey.

Sadly, he's a very tedious speaker... and my favourite soap opera was starting on another channel...

Actually, depending on how you read the opinion polls, the French punters aren't as desperately xenophobic as it might appear... true, 75% say they don't want Turkey to join the EU... but 55% say they are in favour of opening negotiations in view of Turkey joining the EU... which is the actual question on the table.

5212. TheWizardOfWhimsy - 12/16/2004 12:12:57 PM

These guys should be stomped upon very hard.

Zieg Heil!

5213. PelleNilsson - 12/16/2004 12:19:01 PM

Sieg is with an 'S'. So I take it you would support a Cypriot veto?

5214. TheWizardOfWhimsy - 12/16/2004 12:21:54 PM

I don't support anal-retention of any sort . . .

5215. robertjayb - 12/16/2004 6:55:43 PM

Quick! Alert Senator Cluseau...er, Coleman...

(BBC)--A United Nations panel has found that the US-led occupation authority failed to exercise proper controls over Iraq's oil industry and could not say how much oil had gone missing since the fall of Saddam Hussein.
.................................................

US politicians have often accused the UN of incompetence and, perhaps, corruption in its handling of the oil-for-food programme, a scheme to alleviate Iraqi suffering under sanctions before the war. Now the boot is on the other foot.
.................................................

The panel's report says the US-led authorities also failed to deal with widespread smuggling of Iraqi oil out of the country immediately after the war. Nobody knows how much revenue for reconstruction was lost as a result.

5216. robertjayb - 12/21/2004 2:58:21 PM

Have you seen this movie?

BELFAST, Northern Ireland (AP) -- Thieves stole more than $39 million from a Belfast bank in the biggest robbery in Northern Ireland history after holding family members of two bank officials hostage for a day in their homes, authorities said Tuesday.

Police said the thieves took over the houses of two senior Northern Bank executives on Sunday, then forced the employees to help the gang gain access to the vault after the bank closed for business on Monday evening.

Assistant Chief Constable Sam Kinkaid said members of the bank employees' families had been held hostage for at least a day and were left traumatized by the ordeal.

5217. Wombat - 12/21/2004 3:47:49 PM

5214: Now that's funny! It's actually subtle.

5218. wonkers2 - 12/21/2004 7:00:30 PM

Lavender Hill Mob?

5219. robertjayb - 12/22/2004 11:35:32 AM

I was thinking of The Friends of Eddie Coyle (Robert Mitchum and Peter Boyle) in which a Boston area gang knocks off suburban banks by taking executives' families hostage. Good old noirish film. Pops up on TV on occasion.

Not sure if I've seen Lavender Hill Mob. I will put it on the Netflix list.

5220. wonkers2 - 12/22/2004 4:00:21 PM

Lavender Hill Mob was probably Alec Guiness's best comedy. It's right up there close to Dr. Strangelove and The Blues Brothers.

5221. robertjayb - 12/26/2004 12:47:00 PM

Sea surges kill thousands...(BBC)

More than 7,000 people have been killed across southern Asia in massive sea surges triggered by the strongest earthquake in the world for 40 years.
The 8.9 magnitude quake struck under the sea near Aceh in north Indonesia, generating a wall of water that sped across thousands of kilometres of sea.

More than 3,200 died in Sri Lanka, 2,200 in Indonesia and 2,000 in India.

Casualty figures are rising over a wide area, including tourist resorts on Thailand packed with holidaymakers.

5222. robertjayb - 12/26/2004 12:50:58 PM

Impact of the earthquake...

5223. judithathome - 12/26/2004 1:23:06 PM

There is nothing you can do when a tsunami is headed your way. Those poor people.

5224. robertjayb - 12/26/2004 1:45:29 PM

from Discoshaman at Le Sabot Post-Moderne (Don't ask...It's supposed to be clever):

Just saw the results from the National Exit Poll and another one, I think Monitoring Ukraine -- National had Yush up 16 points. The other put him at 58-38% over Yanukovych. Deja vu.

So, Yushchenko leads first exit polls...

5225. robertjayb - 12/26/2004 1:53:26 PM

Kiev (Kyiv?) Post confirms exit poll lead...

(Post staff and wire reports) – All three exit polls tracking the Dec. 26 presidential election gave opposition candidate Viktor Yushchenko a commanding lead of at least 15 percentage points in Ukraine's presidential election.

The results were released immediately after polls closed at 8 p.m. (1800 GMT).

5226. Dubai Vol - 12/26/2004 4:01:15 PM

We've been glued to the TV all day about the tsunami. Mrs Vol spent the last six years working with a lot of the tourism people in the region, beach resorts in particular, and especially the Maldives. In case you're not familiar, it's a chain of 2,000 tiny coral islands (200 inhabited) only 1m above sea level. We were there a year ago, staying on an island about 50m x 400m. I've been trying not to imagine what a 6m wave would do....

5227. Dubai Vol - 12/26/2004 4:01:31 PM

5228. Dubai Vol - 12/26/2004 4:01:54 PM

Oop, sorry

5229. robertjayb - 12/26/2004 5:33:08 PM

Toll is 11,300 says Sydney Morning Herald...

One of the most powerful earthquakes in history hit Asia yesterday, unleashing a tsunami which devastated coastal areas of Sri Lanka, India, Indonesia and tourist isles in Thailand, killing more than 11,300 people.

The tsunami, a menacing wall of water, caused death, chaos and destruction across southern Asia. Up to 10 metres high, the tsunami was triggered by an 8.9 magnitude underwater earthquake off the Indonesian island of Sumatra.

5230. wonkers2 - 12/28/2004 9:45:20 PM

Estimated deaths up to 40,000. Just dealing with the bodies is tremendous problem.

5231. RickNelson - 12/29/2004 8:34:51 AM

Unfortunately, NBC news this morning noted an estimated 60,000 may have perished in the tsunami. I've become aware that the waves hit the Malaysian islands of Penang and Langkawi, both used heavily by tourists. There was an estimated 34 dead. I've a friend who worked on Langkawi. I'm not overly worried because he is very able. But, for his friends, who knows? It's hard to be so far away from friends.

I'm so sorry for Sri Lankan's and all the rest.

5232. RickNelson - 12/29/2004 8:49:15 AM

Oh...

Slate's storey puts the toll well over 70,000.

5233. iiibbb - 12/29/2004 8:55:57 AM

The tourist video's I've been seeing on TV of the waves coming inland are mesmorizing.

5234. iiibbb - 12/29/2004 9:01:47 AM

I've been in a couple of natural disasters (huricanse in particular). I've been meaning to buy one of these MIOX purifiers. I've been seeing the military using these on TV. There's a discussion forum I go to where one of the guys was on development team. I was always worried what it'd do about muddy water. Apparently it causes particulates to settle out as well as kill off the dangerous organisms. You simply pour a few thimblefulls of untreated water into the device, it makes this solution which you then transfer to a larger volume. After a few hours it's safe to drink.

One of the charities helping was showing some purification packets that I reason are filled with the same, or very similar, solution. Their treatment protocol seemed the same as the MIOX.

Anyway... cool technology. Only about $125.

5235. Marc-Albert - 12/29/2004 9:15:11 AM

Slate's storey puts the toll well over 70,000.

5233. iiibbb - 12/29/2004 3:55:57 PM

The tourist video's I've been seeing on TV of the waves coming inland are mesmorizing.

5234. iiibbb - 12/29/2004 4:01:47 PM

I've been in a couple of natural disasters (huricanse in particular).

See guys? we DO need that half-hour of editing time.

5236. iiibbb - 12/29/2004 9:35:16 AM

blah blah blah

5237. iiibbb - 12/29/2004 9:37:33 AM

assumes I give a crap.

5238. iiibbb - 12/29/2004 9:43:12 AM

... of course if there were a spellcheck, I'd use it... but I doubt I'll go back and fix things after the fact.

It's just a fact of life (at least for me) in the Mote that spelling and grammar aren't checked. I come here to speak my mind... not necessarily craft anything especially brilliant.

5239. PelleNilsson - 12/29/2004 10:06:18 AM

'Mesmorizing' is actually a very fine word. As stostosto used to say there are lots of words out there, it's only that we haven't dicovered them yet.

5240. iiibbb - 12/29/2004 10:30:46 AM

Mesmerizing is the correct spelling though...

anyway... let it be known that I don't care about spelling in here. I don't try in here... and I don't expect it of others in particular.

5241. RickNelson - 12/29/2004 10:47:04 AM

A minor thing.

I write that word once every two years or so, once in a while I spell it correctly.

What's really important is acknowledging that over 70,000 lives are lost and many more are suffering their loses. A world is responding and to quibble is meaningless.

So, perspective, perspective.

5242. iiibbb - 12/29/2004 11:00:08 AM

And that number is growing.

I serched the TV and probably watch 4 hrs of coverage last night on the disaster and I was mesmerized... more than any other disaster I've ever seen.

Hopefully we will collectively deliver.

5243. iiibbb - 12/29/2004 11:00:33 AM

searched

5244. PelleNilsson - 12/29/2004 11:27:26 AM

Perspective, perspective you say. Well, in one perspective 70,000 dead are not very many in a world of six billion people.

In another perspective, think first of the currently hit area to which western countries will dispatch plentiful aid and all kinds of humanitarian assistance.

Then think of Darfur and the pitiful efforts being made there.

5245. wonkers2 - 12/29/2004 12:27:47 PM

True.

And, yes, the TV coverage was spectacular.

5246. robertjayb - 12/29/2004 12:48:01 PM

ieSpell is a handy and free spell checker for input boxes. Wurks every time.

5247. robertjayb - 12/29/2004 12:57:40 PM

GuruNet does spelling and much, much more. The free version I use hangs a convenient little button on the side of the monitor screen.

5248. robertjayb - 12/29/2004 6:50:09 PM

Aussies urged to screw for their country...

Local journalist Sarah MacDonald says her country's reputation as a nation of sun-kissed, healthy youngsters is out-of-date as recent surveys suggest the population is ageing rapidly.

The government has responded by trying to encourage Australians to breed, but the policy is not proving entirely popular.

5249. RickNelson - 12/29/2004 8:19:05 PM

Darfur sure is a problem area, as are many areas in Iraq, Afghanistan, Russia and elsewhere. In fact there's new fear of reprisals in the Congo.

However, what we have here is a natural disaster, not a man made war.

I'm sad for the victims of either, but the scale of this natural disaster and the large number of dead puts it on a significantly different level than battles and wars. This number of dead in a quick time was not equaled by Hiroshima or Nagasaki combined. As it is being reported now that the toll may rise to 200,000. Aceh in Indonesia is reporting loses from the earthquake and the tsunami.

5250. Ulgine Barrows - 12/30/2004 5:05:24 AM

When my husband told me the death count this morning, I thought, nature has finally trumped a man-made number.

Can't say I was glad: more like relieved, that we aren't that horrible to ourselves.

5251. Ulgine Barrows - 12/30/2004 5:08:29 AM

I'm sorry. That was inappropriate.

5252. iiibbb - 12/30/2004 8:29:54 AM

Unites States Civil War (4 years)

Combat Deaths - 184,594
Other Deaths - 373,458
Wounded - 412,175
Total - 970,227

5253. iiibbb - 12/30/2004 8:36:51 AM

US WWII

Combat - 292,131
Other - 115,185
Casualties - 670,846
Total - 1,078,162

By Nation WWII Casualties (different source)

40,000,000 over 5 years (I assume they're using 1940-1944).

5254. iiibbb - 12/30/2004 8:44:34 AM

Tianjin, China 1975 - Mag 8 Earthquake - 255,000 deaths (600K + unofficial)

Bangledesh Floods, Nov 1970 - 300,000 dead.

5255. robertjayb - 12/31/2004 3:37:01 PM

$350 million and Jeb, too...

CRAWFORD, Texas (AP) -- The United States is pledging $350 million to help tsunami victims, a tenfold increase over its first wave of aid, President Bush announced Friday.

``Initial findings of American assessment teams on the ground indicate that the need for financial and other assistance will steadily increase in the days and weeks ahead,'' Bush said Friday in a statement released in Crawford, Texas, where he is staying at his ranch.

``Our contributions will continue to be revised as the full effects of this terrible tragedy become clearer,'' he said. ``Our thoughts and prayers are with all those affected by this epic disaster.''

Bush also is sending Secretary of State Colin Powell to Indian Ocean coastal areas ravaged by earthquake and tsunami to assess what more the United States needs to do. The president's brother, Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, will travel with him.

5256. wonkers2 - 12/31/2004 4:46:57 PM

Big Surf!

5257. PelleNilsson - 1/1/2005 12:33:20 PM

A mont ago I posted this map and noted that I didn't understand the background to the east-west divide.

Today I came across this one which sheds a bit more light on things.

It shows Poland (or, properly speaking, the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth) in 1772 before it was partitioned beteween Austra, Prussia and Russia.

5258. robertjayb - 1/3/2005 12:47:07 PM

Dubya drafts Daddy, Big Dog for image repair, tin cup rattling...

WASHINGTON (AP) -- President Bush on Monday tapped two former presidents -- his father, President George H.W. Bush, and his predecessor, President Clinton -- to lead a nationwide, private fund-raising campaign to help victims of the Asian tsunamis.

``I ask every American to contribute as they are able to do so,'' Bush said in the White House's Roosevelt Room, the two former presidents at his side.

Clinton and the first President Bush are to lead an effort to encourage the American people and businesses to support relief and reconstruction activities in areas devastated by the tsunamis, the president said. He also ordered that American flags fly at half-staff all week in sympathy for ``the victims of a great tragedy,'' particularly the many thousands of dead and orphaned children.

5259. Marc-Albert - 1/3/2005 2:20:37 PM

Clinton and the first President Bush are to lead an effort to encourage the American people and businesses to support relief and reconstruction activities in areas devastated by the tsunamis, the president said.

But is it necessary?

I don't want to sound more callous than I really am, but I look at the maps and I see that only a relatively small portion of the shoreline was affected. Mostly in marginal areas.

ECONOMIC DAMAGE MAY BE MINOR (New York Times, January 3)

The tsunami is likely to register as a small wave in affected countries' economies, because tourism and fishing make up small percentages of the overall economy.

Sri Lankan fishermen back fishing in Beruwala yesterday

To drive just a mile from the shore where a tsunami came roaring in a week ago is to feel the calm apart from the storm.

The coast is a tableau of battered boats, smashed hotels and residents scooping mud from what is left of their homes. The immediate interior of the country and its residents show not a scratch.

That surreal contrast, economists say, helps explain the perverse likelihood that one of the world's largest human disasters may have a relatively marginal economic impact.

Tourism and fishing together make up less than 6 percent of Sri Lanka's gross domestic product.

Thailand's economy is expected to grow about 6 percent in 2005, about the same as in 2004. Tourism in southern Thailand around Phuket, the only part of the country affected, accounts for about 1.3 percent of the national economy.

5260. Wombat - 1/3/2005 2:40:09 PM

It seems that Indonesia suffered disproportionally. Not surprising, since it was closest to the epicenter.

Interestingly, one aspect of the story has not been mentioned at all. Sex tourists and their escorts; particularly in Thailand. How many died?

5261. Marc-Albert - 1/3/2005 2:42:51 PM

Well, let's take Indonesia.

All the devastation is concentrated in a tiny portion of that huge country.

Only about 1/5th of Sumatra has been affected, and that is the area north of Medan on the map. And only on the coast. All of Sumatra's major cities and virtually all its infrastructures are intact.

I'm just throwing some figures about, and I may be wrong, but I would say that 97% of Indonesia's territory, 98% of its population and 99,9% of its economic infrastructures have been untouched.

5262. Wombat - 1/3/2005 2:52:01 PM

The New York Times has "before and after" satellite photos of the destroyed parts of Bandar Aceh. Imagine Manhattan, except that at least a third of it is under water, and where intact neighborhoods have been turned into debris-strewn wastelands. All in a few minutes.

Hell, drop a small nuke on Quebec City. A few hundred thousand dead and injured, that makes up a comparatively small proportion of Canada's population (and the western provinces would probably be delighted).

5263. Marc-Albert - 1/3/2005 2:59:01 PM

Yeah, but Quebec City is a priceless World Heritage city. Drop you bomb on Jt.John's Newfoundland (Canada's Bandar Aceh) and nobody would notice :)

5264. Wombat - 1/3/2005 4:12:19 PM

Hahaha!

5265. Marc-Albert - 1/3/2005 6:36:56 PM

Someone on another forum wondered about the risk of tsunamis on Lake Huron near where she lives and that reminded me of this event that happened nearly 20 years ago. It had impressed me a lot at the time.

Toxic lake kills 1700 people overnight

...without prior notice, a cloud of dense gas erupted from the lake, covering the surrounding area under a deadly blanket several tens of meters thick, for an unknown amount of time. The source of the gas became clear in the aftermath of the disasters, since the normally clear waters of the lakes turned reddish and the lake shores were severely disturbed by waves and strong winds. No one in the path of the cloud managed to escape its lethal effects. Skin discoloration found on some victims were tentatively interpreted as burns, but this diagnosis is still controversial.

Witnesses on topographic hights report a loud noise originating from the lake and, in the case of lake Nyos, flashes of light visible over the lake ; both disasters occurred at night, darkness adding to the mystery of these dreadful natural catastrophes.

The lake Nyos disaster, which claimed 1800 victims in August 1986, was not unprecedented, but never before one had heard of Mother Nature asphyxiating human beings and all terrestrial animals on such a scale in a single and brief event.

Two years previously however, a lethal gas burst originated from the neighbouring lake Monoun, in the same remote area of Cameroon, and killed 37 people, an odd and tragic episode that went almost unnoticed.

5266. Marc-Albert - 1/3/2005 6:37:19 PM

The dissolved CO2 is seeping from springs beneath the lake and is trapped in deep water by the high hydrostatic pressure. If the CO2 saturation level is reached, bubbles appear and draw a rich mixture of gas and water up. An avalanche process is triggered which results in an explosive over-turn of the whole lake.

5267. Marc-Albert - 1/3/2005 6:39:15 PM

Degassing Lake Nyos

5268. robertjayb - 1/3/2005 10:04:13 PM

Con artists hit tsunami victims kin...

STOCKHOLM (Reuters) - Thieves, rapists, kidnappers and hoaxers are preying on tsunami survivors and families of victims in Asian refugee camps, hospitals and in the home countries of European tourists hit by the wave.

Reports and warnings came in from as far apart as Britain, Sweden, Sri Lanka, Thailand and Hong Kong on Monday of criminals taking advantage of the chaos to rape survivors in Sri Lanka or plunder the homes of European tourists reported missing.

5269. jexster - 1/4/2005 12:02:26 AM

Marc...

Take out Vancouver BC, Seattle, Tacoma....

Take out the coast lines of South Carolina, North Carolina and the VA Tidewater

Sri Lanka had 70% of its coastline wiped out....villages, fishing villages which are extremely vital to this tiny civil war torn country..gone...NewsHour's correspondent put this in intelligible perspective tonight...

Like most LDC's Sri Lanka doesn't do stip malls....neither does Indonesia save where Americans and EuroTrash vacation.
They aren't accustomed to 5 yr. useful lives...those towns and villages were built up patch by patch over hundreds of years...today it is like their entire world has been wiped away...

Hell Allah could wipe out Quebec and all those (what's the Quebcer word for redneck) fur trappers up by Hudson Bay and not even your Blue State Comrades, not even Greenpeace would give an otter's ass...and we could rebuild them all..

To these poor fucks, this is more like YHWH's Flood

5270. Marc-Albert - 1/4/2005 10:15:58 AM

Jexster, don't get all uptight. What I posted regarding Sri Lanka was no more no less than a copy & paste job taken from a NYT article. I happen to agree with that analysis.

Disaster's Damage to Economies May Be Minor

Wing Thye Woo, a professor of economics at the University of California, Davis, said, "It's a blip, but a blip that is concentrated among the poorest of the population."

5271. Marc-Albert - 1/4/2005 4:17:54 PM

STOP THE PRESS! (sub-titled: Stop collecting funds)

Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF), has just announced that, as of today it would stop collecting funds for the Asian emergency. The reason: we collected nearly 40 million euros and that's more than we need, and that we can handle, to respond to the crisis.

Other NGOs - who are gearing up for a large fund collection offensive - are embarassed and critical of this unexpected decision, since they say it will break the élan de générosité that's been observed throughout the world in reponse to the disaster.

MSF, whose director qualified the Asian tsunami of catastrophe hypermédiatisée a couple of days ago, says it will now resume collecting funds for less fashionables causes such as the Darfur and the Rep. of Congo crises.

5272. robertjayb - 1/4/2005 5:08:22 PM

The American Red Cross will not like this move at all. The ARC likes to stockpile money.

5273. alistairConnor - 1/4/2005 5:52:51 PM

I just got an email from MSF. They are the only disaster-relief people I give money to.
MSF actually do spend the money on what you earmark it for. And they are honest and transparent : they don't have the logistics to spend more than they already have, so they are encouraging people to give for other causes instead (there is no shortage of equally urgent and worthy situations), or to make non-earmarked donations.

5274. Marc-Albert - 1/5/2005 11:21:33 AM

A Republic of Euskadia soon?

Spain's Prime Minister, Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero, has angrily dismissed a proposal by the Basque parliament to negotiate the independence of the region from Spain, condemning the plan as secessionist and unconstitutional. (The Independent, January 4)

Mr Ibarretxe, lehendakari (President) of the government of the Basque Autonomous Region and initiator of the so-called "plan Ibarretxe" for independence, first approved by Parliament in the Fall of 2003

5275. Marc-Albert - 1/5/2005 11:22:43 AM

Hmm.. Things are heating up. This promises to be the hot news in Spain in 2005. Of course, we know about ETA, the Basque movement that wants to bring about the independence of Euskadia by violent means, but there is also a more sedate, even bourgeois, political movement that we hear much less about outside Spain, and that wants to obtain the independence of Euskadi by peaceful, constitutional means. They seem to be the majority in the local Parliament now, and they mean business.

What Prime Minister Zapatero, like Aznar before him, has said, is that the secession of the Basque Country is illegal because it’s unconstitutional (reminds me of de Gaulle’s Fifth Constitution of 1958 that said that Algeria was an inalienable part of the French Republic…)

A tremendous dilemma for libertarian Zapatero and the Spaniards: Can you, on one hand, insist that it’s not permissible for a well-defined group such as the Basques to hold a referendum on independence when, on the other hand, you proclaim loud and clear that it’s quite permissible for adults males to copulate together?

Madrid said that that would be illegal, but what if the democratically-elected Basque MPs goe ahead with the independence referendum next Spring? And what if the Basque vote for independence?

I guess a Québécois like me would say that the Spaniards live in interesting time.

Map of the Autonomous regions of Spain

5276. Marc-Albert - 1/5/2005 11:30:54 AM

The historical Basque Country

These developments will have implications for France as well.

5277. robertjayb - 1/6/2005 2:46:42 PM

Dubya's grandstand play fizzles...(Reuters)

You can come home now, Jeb.

JAKARTA (Reuters) - An effort by the United States, Japan, India and Australia to coordinate tsunami relief will be disbanded and folded into broader U.N.-led operations, Secretary of State Colin Powell said on Thursday.
................................................

"The core group helped to catalyze the international response," Powell told a tsunami relief conference in Jakarta. "Having served its purpose, the core group will fold itself into the broader coordination efforts of the United Nations."

Yeah. Right. You come home too, Colin.

5278. wonkers2 - 1/6/2005 5:22:21 PM

I once found out after taking off on a flight from Lisbon that had originated in Madrid that the flight had been delayed in Lisbon in order to search for a bomb that ETA had claimed to have put on the plane. Not an enjoyable flight, to put it mildly. Ever since that has influenced my attitude toward the Basques!

5279. Macnas - 1/7/2005 3:42:58 AM

The Basque region is just too valuable to Spain.

I don't think there is that much in the way of ETA or independence aspirations from the French side of the border, but I could be wrong of course.

5280. Wombat - 1/7/2005 9:05:01 AM

ETA won when Spain granted them the same level of autonomy as Catalunya (as the Catalans now call it). I don't see the French tolerating Basque separatists if they start claiming independence for Baque regions in France.

5281. Macnas - 1/7/2005 9:20:04 AM

But the Basques always had a certain amount of autonomy, before Franco took it away and begat the penal laws that begat ETA.

5282. Marc-Albert - 1/7/2005 5:25:02 PM

You're right Macnas, there is no aspiration to independence, or unification with the Spanish Basque country, on the French side of the border, in what's called the Pyrénées atlantiques. For one thing, only a minority of the population still speaks some Basque and even a smaler minority use it in any significant way in their daily life. But nevertheless the sudden appearance of an independent Basque republic just across the border may cause some perturbations.

There is this English-language version of an interesting page on the Basque language in France. Full of data and statistics.

5283. robertjayb - 1/8/2005 11:13:27 AM

Senator Frist has GOP priorities straight...

Sen. Bill Frist, R-Tenn., a medical doctor and Sen. Mary Landrieu, D-Louisiana, visited tsunami-stricken southern Sri Lanka on Thursday, tying up two of the five U.S. Military helicopters presently available, reports CBS News Correspondent Allen Pizzey.

Relief efforts in Sri Lanka are focused on areas still cut off by both the tsunami and monsoon rains. The anticipated arrival of more U.S. helicopters and the Marines will do much to help get much need aid where it is needed the most, reports Pizzey.

A group of homeless men at the camp expressed frustration with government-led relief efforts, complaining that the local Red Cross had only set up their clinic, complete with flags and banners, a few hours before the U.S. senators visited. Red Cross officials said their mobile clinics were treating patients at hundreds of camps.

Just before his helicopter lifted off, Frist and aides took snapshots of each other near a pile of tsunami debris.

"Get some devastation in the back," Frist told a photographer.

5284. Wombat - 1/8/2005 11:23:25 AM

MacNas:

The Basques did have autonomy before Franco, and they have autonomy now. Franco has been dead now for 30 years or so, and Spain has recognized and promoted regional autonomy within Spain for at least a decade. It is too bad that some Basque political nationalists have yet to get over their reflexive support for ETA.

5285. Marc-Albert - 1/8/2005 11:47:02 AM

If a majority of Basques, through an open and democratic referendum, clearly express their wish for a sovereign state, shouldn't they have the right to secede?

If Madrid keeps on saying no, as it just did, on the spurious pretext that independence - by any mean - is unconstitutional, then Madrid is playing into the hand of ETA and legitimizing its recourse to violence since the Basques will realize taht there is no other way to gain independence.

5286. concerned - 1/11/2005 7:02:43 PM

I'm sorry to hear about the tsunami and its human toll, but perhaps now some funds will be spend for civil defense warning systems at locations vulnerable to such disasters to avoid the possibility of similar tragedies in the future.

5287. alistairconnor - 1/12/2005 11:16:24 AM

The other day, I heard an ex-minister on the radio saying that the tsunami refutes the basic postulate of ecologists, this being that nature is a benevolent force... made me laugh, it's such an obvious straw man.

On the contrary, one could say that the tsunami refutes a cherished illusion of the other side : that Man can dominate Nature.

5288. alistairconnor - 1/12/2005 11:20:57 AM

I understand that the US has had at least a rudimentary tsunami-detection system for the west coast for decades. The Japanese are the champions of course, they are able to actually get the message across to the population within minutes.

It's bolting the stable door after the horse has gone, of course, because it's not particularly likely to happen again in the next few decades; but it's cheap insurance.

And may well serve a useful purpose in habituating people and nations to co-operate in order to predict, recognise and deal with catastrophic natural or pseudo-natural events.

5289. PelleNilsson - 1/12/2005 11:40:54 AM

There are credible reports that a warning reached Thailand but it was not acted on because it would upset the tourists. After all nothing like that had happened for at least 200 years.

Also, it has been pointed out that a warning system is much more than placing some detectors at sea. There must also be a a management structure, a system that gets people off the coast and moves in to protect their property against looting. The US east coast storm warning system has been cited as an example of how it should work. And how to implement that in a place like Aceh or Sri Lanka?

5290. Dubai Vol - 1/12/2005 2:05:22 PM

If a majority of Basques, through an open and democratic referendum, clearly express their wish for a sovereign state, shouldn't they have the right to secede?

Personally, I would love to see this allowed: the first thing I would do is secede from the United States. But of course that won't be allowed either, so what's the difference? Why can't I secede, and why should the Basques be allowed to?

5291. alistairConnor - 1/12/2005 6:06:18 PM

Well, Europe pretty much invented the nation state, not so long ago, and I've been hoping it would bury it too. I think it's pretty much irrelevant to just about everything whether Euskadi becomes a sovereign nation or not. It would be bigger than Andorra or Liechtenstein.

And smaller than a breadbox.

5292. Dubai Vol - 1/14/2005 6:35:33 AM

Sadly, this article:

Andaman Aid Hijacked

doesn't include the specific story reported in the local paper, of the Indian official caught stealing 12,000 liters of mineral water intended for tsunami victims for his personal use, to take baths.

Or the refusal of the Indian government to allow a relief agency to build hundreds of homes for tsunami victims, "but you are welcome to send us the money instead."

5293. alistairconnor - 1/14/2005 6:49:39 AM

The Indians are visibly playing this as a matter of national pride : we are not a developing nation that needs external aid, we are a Great Power.

In fact they are both.

The Andaman islands are a special case, just about completely off-limits for everyone I believe. I saw a program a couple of months ago, a French documentary team who more or less clandestinely visited an island which is home to what is claimed to be the only intact primitive community left on earth. i.e. completely stone-age, with no significant outside contact until very recently. They predicted that the way of life of the community, a few hundred strong, would no longer exist in 20 years.

They have been back since the tsunami, the follow-up episode is on TV tonight. I'm rather dreading it : I suspect it's over already.

5294. sakonige - 1/14/2005 11:53:17 AM

Let us know. There has been speculation about whether the Andaman tribes were able to somehow sense the impending tsunami and escaped it.

5295. alistairConnor - 1/15/2005 1:04:11 PM

Well, they didn't actually get back to that particular island -- probably the Indian army had issues about it. But from talking to other islanders, they did indeed get the impression that they had weathered it with little damage.

Apparently, just like the elephants, they headed for the hills when the earthquake hit. And after all, they have no elaborate structures or artifacts to lose.

Looks like they might still have a couple of decades left.

5296. sakonige - 1/16/2005 1:42:25 PM

Apparently, just like the elephants, they headed for the hills when the earthquake hit.

That's interesting. It indicates humans, at least stone age humans, are included among the many species that seem to have some innate way of sensing an impending tsunami. It makes you wonder whether they used instinct or observation of other animals or some combination of the two.

5297. sakonige - 1/16/2005 1:44:03 PM

I hope they tell someone how they did it before they disappear.

5298. PelleNilsson - 1/16/2005 2:12:53 PM

Sensing a tsunami or an earthquake has no survival value for a species. I don't beleive in those stories for a single moment. They are just romanticized versions of "nature knows best".

5299. alistairConnor - 1/16/2005 3:28:40 PM

Sensing a tsunami or an earthquake has no survival value for a species.

What a stupid statement. The survival value is self-evident.

5300. PelleNilsson - 1/17/2005 5:17:37 AM

For an individual, yes, but not for a species.

5301. alistairconnor - 1/17/2005 6:33:53 AM

Ah?

That must be a very subtle distinction. It's obviously over my head.

It seems to me that, if in a given population of a given species, half of them head for the beach and half of them head for the hills when an earthquake strikes, then the survival of those individuals who had the right instinct has quite a bit of value for the survival of the species.

What am I missing?

5302. PelleNilsson - 1/17/2005 11:45:09 AM

What you are missing, in my opinion, is that those events are too few and far between in space-time to exert any evolutionary pressure.

For a discussion of the issue you may want to read this article in National Geographic. I, obviously, come down on the sceptical side.

5303. alistairconnor - 1/17/2005 11:51:23 AM

Yes, but that's not a matter of science, more a matter of temperament.

Some might say, of pathology.

5304. alistairconnor - 1/17/2005 11:57:10 AM

As for the evolutionary pressure :

If that was a 500-year tsunami, then that's easily frequent enough to be effective. For a species which lives in a coastal environment, a periodic halving of the population through such a highly selective event is going to have quite a strong effect over a million years or so.

5305. alistairconnor - 1/17/2005 11:58:13 AM

... also bearing in mind that tsunami avoidance does not require earthquake prediction, but merely prompt response to a very strong stimulus (the earthquake itself). Nothing mysterious at all.

5306. PelleNilsson - 1/17/2005 12:13:13 PM

To be sceptical about unsubstantiated folklore is to be pathological? Very well then.

5307. sakonige - 1/17/2005 2:08:57 PM

I'm looking forward to someone following up on the reports that some animals and some people were able to react to the impending tsunami apparently before the earthquake had even occurred. Someone is bound to at least verify one way or the other whether that happened.

5308. judithathome - 1/17/2005 2:11:07 PM

I heard a report on NPR that elephants carrying tourists ran to higher ground and nothing their handlers could do could stop them.

5309. sakonige - 1/17/2005 2:25:58 PM

I am guessing there were probably enough eyes on some of the preserves to construct a record of what actually happened as far as when the inhabitants left the beaches and how many survived.

5310. PelleNilsson - 1/17/2005 2:30:43 PM

Sure. A lot of people were watching the marmelade jars.

5311. sakonige - 1/17/2005 2:41:56 PM

maybe not the marmelade jars, but someone was probably watching the exotic animals and humans in the nature preserves.

5312. judithathome - 1/17/2005 2:42:16 PM

Ha!

5313. judithathome - 1/17/2005 2:42:55 PM

Ah...too late. That Ha was directed at Pelle's joke.

5314. robertjayb - 1/17/2005 3:33:04 PM

A longish and fascinating NYTimes article on the role of Ukraine's secret security apparatus in bringing about the bloodless Orange Revolution:

It was just after 10 p.m. on Nov. 28.

More than 10,000 troops scrambled toward trucks. Most had helmets, shields and clubs. Three thousand carried guns. Many wore black masks. Within 45 minutes, according to their commander, Lt. Gen. Sergei Popkov, they had distributed ammunition and tear gas and were rushing out the gates.

Kiev was tilting toward a terrible clash, a Soviet-style crackdown that could have brought civil war. And then, inside Ukraine's clandestine security apparatus, strange events began to unfold.

5315. Wombat - 1/17/2005 5:12:46 PM

The Ukraine story is fascinating. The cynic inside me wonders how closely the past activities of Ukraine intelligence agencies are going to be examined by the new regime, after their support was given so decisively.

With every earthquake, there appear stories of peculiar animal behavior days to hours beforehand. I do not know if this phenomenon has been studied empirically, though.

5316. Marc-Albert - 1/17/2005 8:30:00 PM

A 68-year-old woman died of a heart attack early this morning while fleeing from her home. According to the police, over 12,000 people from Conception, Chile, fled to the hills in panic after it was rumored that fishermen had seen the sea suddenly recede from the shore during several minutes.

5317. sakonige - 1/17/2005 10:50:11 PM

their instincts must be all messed up.

5318. alistairconnor - 1/18/2005 4:27:14 AM

The consequences of a false alarm, barring the odd heart attack, are pretty minor. Chile is an excellent candidate for a high-death-toll tsunami.

5319. sakonige - 1/20/2005 12:53:33 AM

Tsunami folklore 'saved islanders'

Traditional knowledge handed down from generation to generation helped to save ancient tribes on India's Andaman and Nicobar Islands from the worst of the tsunami, anthropologists say.

But other isolated communities who moved to the islands from South East Asia centuries ago fared far worse than the indigenous peoples, evidence suggests.

Still, people with modern secondary and above education didn't remember that an earthquake may trigger a tsunami, even when they saw the sea recede. But people don't even have a written language remembered. The stone-age method of transmitting that knowledge was clearly superior, for some reason.

5320. concerned - 1/20/2005 1:00:04 AM

I personally have little doubt that such nearly subliminal cues and memes are much more accessible to societies that are not distracted by 'modern civilization', but it's tough to beat a civil defense siren warning system, even so.

5321. concerned - 1/20/2005 1:07:50 AM

t seems to me that, if in a given population of a given species, half of them head for the beach and half of them head for the hills when an earthquake strikes, then the survival of those individuals who had the right instinct has quite a bit of value for the survival of the species.

Of course, those who head for the beach might be hoping to surf the perfect pipeline.

Cowabunga!

5322. thoughtful - 1/20/2005 11:12:45 AM

For those of you who are fans of things international, you might want to check out Morgan Stanley's Global Economic Forum Very interesting analysis by some top notch economists, headed by steve roach, on global, regional and country economic happenings. Roach's piece usually appears on mondays...you can check the archive for older issues. I enjoy his commentary a lot.

5323. wonkers2 - 1/20/2005 11:16:29 AM

Tnx. I bookmarked it.

5324. iiibbb - 1/25/2005 2:11:55 PM

Yankee go home

5325. jexster - 1/30/2005 7:27:43 PM

From Newsweek International

Dream On America

The U.S. Model: For years, much of the world did aspire to the American way of life. But today countries are finding more appealing systems in their own backyards.

Not long ago, the American dream was a global fantasy. Not only Americans saw themselves as a beacon unto nations. So did much of the rest of the world. East Europeans tuned into Radio Free Europe. Chinese students erected a replica of the Statue of Liberty in Tiananmen Square.

You had only to listen to George W. Bush's Inaugural Address last week (invoking "freedom" and "liberty" 49 times) to appreciate just how deeply Americans still believe in this founding myth. For many in the world, the president's rhetoric confirmed their worst fears of an imperial America relentlessly pursuing its narrow national interests. But the greater danger may be a delusional America—one that believes, despite all evidence to the contrary, that the American Dream lives on, that America remains a model for the world, one whose mission is to spread the word.

The gulf between how Americans view themselves and how the world views them was summed up in a poll last week by the BBC. Fully 71 percent of Americans see the United States as a source of good in the world. More than half view Bush's election as positive for global security. Other studies report that 70 percent have faith in their domestic institutions and nearly 80 percent believe "American ideas and customs" should spread globally.

The WORST news of all...

Monbiot summarizes the scientific data: "In Sweden, you are three times more likely to rise out of the economic class into which you were born than you are in the U.S."

…

5326. jexster - 1/30/2005 7:44:01 PM

Much has made, for instance, of the differences between the dynamic American model and the purportedly sluggish and overregulated "European model." Ongoing efforts at European labor-market reform and fiscal cuts are ridiculed. Why can't these countries be more like Britain, businessmen ask, without the high tax burden, state regulation and restrictions on management that plague Continental economies? Sooner or later, the CW goes, Europeans will adopt the American model—or perish.

Yet this is a myth. For much of the postwar period Europe and Japan enjoyed higher growth rates than America. Airbus recently overtook Boeing in sales of commercial aircraft, and the EU recently surpassed America as China's top trading partner. This year's ranking of the world's most competitive economies by the World Economic Forum awarded five of the top 10 slots—including No. 1 Finland—to northern European social democracies. "Nordic social democracy remains robust," writes Anthony Giddens, former head of the London School of Economics and a "New Labour" theorist, in a recent issue of the New Statesman, "not because it has resisted reform, but because it embraced it."

5327. thoughtful - 2/2/2005 1:54:51 PM

Any of you interested in a good blog about international stuff, check out Nouriel Roubini's site...he's an international econ prof from NYU. Also sports Brad Setser's blog with lots of good commentary.

5328. alistairconnor - 2/3/2005 7:06:14 AM

Roubini's blog reinforces my impression that the US will not get through 2005 without a dollar crash -- bad news for everyone, but the smoke and mirrors can't last forever.

One advantage for the US that I can see if it happens sooner rather than later : the resulting crash in stocks would presumably kill the privatization of social security.

5329. thoughtful - 2/3/2005 8:52:48 AM

well, the sooner the bubble bursts the less painful and long lasting it is likely to be.

only hope is rather than a burst, a gradual adjustment. Some are already discussing evidence that the ECB is reducing their share of $ assets and that other central banks may follow too.

big ??? is China. As long as they are willing to keep sopping up US debt, the party will continue.

5330. PelleNilsson - 2/3/2005 11:59:34 AM

So, alistair, you think the fdollar will crash in 2005. I don't agree. Let's compare notes at years's end.

But we need to define 'dollar crash'. Shall we say $2 to the euro?

5331. alistairconnor - 2/3/2005 12:08:01 PM

Just being Cassandra.

I can understand that China finds great advantage in its absurd exchange rate, in particular the knowledge that they have got the US by the short and curlies.

But I can't see what's stopping some of the smaller countries which are running a surplus, from cashing in their dollars for euros. And the central banks are going to get awfully tired of buying up the excess dollars.

... let's say, $1.75 to the euro.

(What's pissing me off today, is that the NZ dollar is absurdly high... 55 centimes, 71 cents US. So I won't be sending any money for this trip. Matter of principle.)

5332. thoughtful - 2/3/2005 12:39:33 PM

it's not the short & curlies so much as they are benefiting so much from all the US purchases. The Bretton-Woods II argument...

5333. PelleNilsson - 2/3/2005 12:54:37 PM

Ok, $1.75 then. But considering that the dollar touched 1.45 at the end of last year I would call that a limited modified crash.

I don't claim to understand the international capital flows but is it really as simple as "cashing in dollars for euros"? Are there euros floating around waiting to be bought? From what I understand Euroland as a whole brakes even (more or less) meaning that deficits in individual countries are financed within the euro zone.

5334. thoughtful - 2/3/2005 1:09:15 PM

All they have to do is sell their $-based assets and buy up Euro based ones...be it bonds or stocks or buildings.

5335. PelleNilsson - 2/3/2005 2:41:15 PM

As simple as that is it? Who would have thought? A simple question: sell $-based assets to whom?

5336. thoughtful - 2/3/2005 2:47:49 PM

if it's bonds or stocks, there certainly is a liquid market for that stuff. people trade a few billion shares a day, no problem. real estate or such things would take longer.

5337. PelleNilsson - 2/3/2005 3:25:48 PM

But thoughtful, if the general opinion of the international capital market is that $-assets will lose value who will buy? Who buys stock in a company that is going downhill?

5338. thoughtful - 2/3/2005 3:41:55 PM

Pelle, it's not a matter of who buys, it's a matter of at what price. Not everyone thinks the dollar will fall further. Not everyone is enamored with the prospect of holding euro assets when the european growth rates are so abysmal. There are always contrarians. There is the safe haven argument. There's the US growing 4.4% in 2004 vs. germany, france, italy at what, 1%? There is the rising interest rates in the us vs flat to maybe falling interest rates in the eurozone. All kinds of reasons.

5339. wonkers2 - 2/3/2005 9:07:04 PM

If the general opinion is that $ assets will decline they will probably increase. They have already declined quite a lot. Nobody knows how much more, if any, they will decline. Very complicated prediction. I wonder how Soros is betting?

5340. marjoribanks - 2/3/2005 9:32:34 PM

Don't know about Soros, but plenty of other big name investors are betting against the dollar at least for the short term. Plus, in recent remarks very widely quoted here, Bill Gates has said that he believes a markedly weaker dollar is inevitable.

For whatever it's worth, I personally don't believe that a dollar crash is a certainty. But what's the huge difference - to someone like myself - between a precipitous crash and the certain 10-15-20% decline over time?

I am thus convinced that it is unwise to be locked up in dollars if you have a good option. Thanks to economic liberalization here, and a fine bank called ICICI, I've moved heavily into dual-currency limited term deposits which are banked in Dubai. The cash stays "hard", but is hedged against currency fluctuations. As far as I am concerned, you may not see a disastrous crash but you sure aren't going to see a glorious rally either.

Now, the Euro, that's a currency itching for a bloodbath if there ever was one.

5341. marjoribanks - 2/3/2005 9:36:04 PM

Well, here you have it.

Feb. 2 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar can add the world's two richest men to its list of detractors, something that's raising eyebrows here in Asia.

Bill Gates, chairman of Microsoft Corp., left no doubt of that, telling television host Charlie Rose ``I'm short the dollar.'' The world's wealthiest man called the record $7.62 trillion federal debt ``a bit scary'' and lamented that the U.S. is in ``uncharted territory'' fiscally.

And he's right. Just ask Warren Buffett, the world's No. 2 moneyman, who has been buying foreign currencies since 2002, citing concerns about the U.S. deficit. The bet is paying off, too. Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway Inc. reaped a $412 million pretax gain on the trade in the third quarter of 2004.

Gates and Buffett may not be reading from the same playbook as George Soros, though their investments bear some similarities. Financier Soros has long since given up on the world's reserve currency, and U.S. President George W. Bush's competence on economic matters.

5342. arkymalarky - 2/3/2005 10:01:54 PM

(donning dunce cap)
What, if anything, does recent major Wal-Mart dealings with China reflect about the opinions of both on any of this?

5343. arkymalarky - 2/3/2005 10:02:16 PM

Both Wal-Mart and China, that is.

5344. alistairconnor - 2/4/2005 6:02:34 AM

``I'm short the dollar.''

Bill is short the syntax?

Does he mean "I'm a dollar short"?

Probably not...

5345. thoughtful - 2/4/2005 8:31:21 AM

arky, the thing is the dollar needs to fall against the asian currencies which is where the biggest trade deficits are...of course the us is running a trade deficit vs. all countries ex belgium and new zealand....

Anyway, the thing is China and other asian countries have locked their exchange rate to the dollar so the trade deficit with them continues to blossom. But even if the rmb does loosen vs the dollar, it is unlikely to change much in terms of trade flows....their labor costs are way way way lower than in the states and it will take a massive xrate adjustment to fix that...one that simply is not in the cards anytime soon without some huge economic dislocation.

Walmart, like so many other companies are simply taking advantage of the low cost production out of china.

5346. arkymalarky - 2/4/2005 5:41:22 PM

Thanks Thoughtful! I wondered if maybe Walmart was opening so many stores over there because they derived some benefit from retail business with Chinese consumers due to the current circumstances.

5347. wonkers2 - 2/4/2005 9:57:02 PM

That IS why they are opening stores in China--ie because they see a big future retail market their. They are opening plants or buying from licensed producers of knockoffs of U.S. products there because they are cheaper and hopefully of equal or close quality. My big contretemps with Wal-Mart was over a Chinese knockoff of a U.S.-made Schrade pocket knife sold by Wal-Mart here under the venerable U.S. name "Winchester." My problem was not that the knife was made in China but that it was a piece of crap that didn't work--the blades bent over backwards when you tried to cut with it. Wal-Mart put 275 workers at the Schrade plant in Ellenville, New York out of business. After making quality knives for more than 100 years Schrade went into bankruptcy and folded last fall.

5348. arkymalarky - 2/5/2005 11:03:55 AM

It's really awful and they've been working that angle for a while. I think there are a number of American businesses that have had to do that over the years strictly because of Walmart. So now they're just using what's hurting the American dollar to their advantage by picking up on the retail end? (And I don't mean that to read that all our woes are due to China's policies)

All I can say is China and Walmart had best both keep their backs to the wall. It will be interesting to watch this play out over the next few years.

And I say all of the above as a professed economic idiot.

5349. robertjayb - 2/7/2005 2:06:25 PM

Pope aide broaches retirement...

VATICAN CITY (Reuters) - The Vatican said Monday Pope John Paul would remain in hospital for a few more days as his top aide spoke openly about the possibility of the frail Pontiff eventually retiring for the good of the Church.

5350. thoughtful - 2/8/2005 8:48:36 AM

Well the other thing is it is a lot easier for us businesses to do business with china if they are also doing business in china. The chinese govt is very powerful and very wise in many ways.

5351. thoughtful - 2/10/2005 9:35:52 AM

There's just no way that this:

TOKYO Feb. 10 -- North Korea on Thursday declared itself a de facto nuclear power, claiming in its strongest terms to date that it had "manufactured nuclear weapons" to defend itself from the United States and saying it would withdraw indefinitely from international disarmament talks.

Since withdrawing from the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and ejecting weapons inspectors in a dispute with the Bush administration in late 2002, North Korea has used less specific language, both publicly and privately, to describe the development of what it has dubbed a "nuclear deterrent." But on Thursday, an official North Korean statement employed wording that analysts and several Asian diplomats saw as a virtual declaration that it has become a nuclear power. "In response to the Bush administration's increasingly hostile policy toward North Korea, we . . . have manufactured nuclear weapons for self-defense," the government said in official statement through the its Korean Central News Agency.

From today's WaPo

can be considered good news. The bushies have been so hell-bent on iraq and the middle east, they've been blind to everything else going on in the world.

This is not good.

5352. Magoseph - 2/10/2005 11:11:42 AM

I have been led to believe that the privatization that Bush is proposing has been attempted in some other countries. Does anyone know the details of this ?

Pelle?

5353. thoughtful - 2/10/2005 12:58:14 PM

If you mean on soc sec, krugman has discussed it in some of his op ed pieces. The brits have tried it and found it very expensive to manage. The chileans have tried it but found it's not adequate for those at the bottom of the income classes so they end up bearing large social costs anyway in addition to running a more expensive system with less than hoped for returns.

5354. Magoseph - 2/10/2005 1:02:55 PM

Thanks, thoughtful--Krugman's articles about this issue are a good way to start. I should have specified what I meant, sorry.

5355. Jenerator - 2/10/2005 1:20:41 PM

I thought Marjoribanks said that we should invest in art?

5356. concerned - 2/10/2005 2:05:25 PM

Welp. The murder's out. NK admits that it has nuclear arms. Since the '90's, no doubt.

5357. robertjayb - 2/10/2005 2:53:38 PM

A 3-yr-old report on Argentina...(PDF)

5358. robertjayb - 2/12/2005 3:46:01 PM

Sweden's take on private pensions...(NYTimes)

STOCKHOLM - Every spring Marie-Louise Graveleij, a 62-year-old receptionist in a funeral home, receives a large orange envelope through the mail. Now, it is about to become her lifeline, offering her an alternative to a full-time job.

Soon, she said, she will end her current work contract and decide whether she can afford to retire. The orange envelope she expects to receive within the next few weeks will contain a statement of her rights under a five-year-old restructuring of this country's still-generous state pension program that - like the changes President Bush wants to introduce in Social Security - includes a personal investment account.

The question is, will she be able to get by on what the envelope offers or not?

5359. wonkers2 - 2/12/2005 3:59:31 PM

I just heard CNN radio news parroting Bush's lie that the benefits of seniors 55 and older won't be affected by his SS reform program. Although it may be true that INITIAL benefits wouldn't be affected, FUTURE benefits would be affected by changing the benefit adjustment formula from wage-based adjustments to a consumer price-based formula, which is, by all reports under active consideration by Bush.

His "promise" to over-55ers was a transparent and misleading attempt to blunt opposition from this group. And CNN, and much of the mainstream media, is mindlessly and superficially parroting the misleading Bush line.

5360. wonkers2 - 2/12/2005 4:00:53 PM

Probably should have put that in the Politics Thread. Was following up on RJB's post on SS in Sweden and Chile.

5361. arkymalarky - 2/12/2005 5:04:49 PM

Message # 5357Quite a prodigy.

5362. robertjayb - 2/12/2005 6:41:32 PM

Hugo gets his guns...bushies pissed

CARACAS, Venezuela -- U.S. objections will not prevent Venezuela from going ahead with its plans to purchase 100,000 Kalashnikov assault rifles and dozens of helicopters from Russia, Venezuela's vice president said Friday.

Jose Vicente Rangel downplayed Washington's worries over the arms sale, saying the forthcoming purchase "is a sovereign act by Venezuela that President Hugo Chavez's government refuses to debate over."

5363. robertjayb - 2/12/2005 7:21:31 PM

Hands off Hugo, says Fidel...

HAVANA (AP) -- Fidel Castro warned that the life of leftist Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez is in danger, and said he would blame the United States if his close friend and ally is killed.

Castro's remarks came during a six-hour speech that lasted until 4 a.m. Saturday and closed an international globalization conference in Havana attended by hundreds of economists.

``If Chavez is assassinated, the responsibility will lie entirely with the president of the United States,'' Castro said, neglecting to provide details, but noting that President Bush has encouraged Chavez's opponents in the past.

5364. wonkers2 - 2/14/2005 9:24:33 AM

Iraq bribed UN oil for food inspector. Here

5365. jexster - 2/21/2005 9:42:33 PM

The Sad State of US/Euro Relations - Interview With a Deeply Pessimistic Javier Solana, IHT

5366. Wombat - 2/24/2005 9:49:17 AM

"Interesting" that Bush's speech in Slovakia fails to note that it was Czechoslovakia that threw off the Soviet yoke; and that Slovakia was not the part of the country that took the lead in doing so.

5367. robertjayb - 2/24/2005 11:52:03 AM

There are blogger hints about that dubya ditched a scheduled townhall meeting in Germany when those contrary Krauts wouldn't provide the sort of docile claque he is accustomed to for an audience.

Sounds about right...

5368. jexster - 2/24/2005 12:15:45 PM

Germans Trust Putin More than Bush Die Welt

5369. Wombat - 2/24/2005 12:16:09 PM

Wouldn't suprise me.

5370. jexster - 2/24/2005 12:22:49 PM

Deutschland, Deutschland über alles,
Über alles in der Welt,
Wenn es stets zu Schutz und Trutze
Brüderlich zusammenhält,
Von der Maas bis an die Memel,
Von der Etsch bis an den Belt -
Deutschland, Deutschland über alles,
Über alles in der Welt.

2. Deutsche Frauen, deutsche Treue,
Deutscher Wein und deutscher Sang
Sollen in der Welt behalten
Ihren alten schönen Klang,
Uns zu edler Tat begeistern
Unser ganzes Leben lang.
Deutsche Frauen, deutsche Treue,
Deutscher Wein und deutscher Sang.

3. Einigkeit und Recht und Freiheit
Für das deutsche Vaterland!
Danach laßt uns alle streben
Brüderlich mit Herz und Hand!
Einigkeit und Recht und Freiheit
Sind des Glückes Unterpfand.
Blüh' im Glanze dieses Glückes,
Blühe, deutsches Vaterland

4. Deutschland, Deutschland über alles,
Und im Unglück nun erst recht.
Nur im Unglück kann die Liebe
Zeigen, ob sie stark und echt.
Und so soll es weiterklingen
Von Geschlechte zu Geschlecht:
Deutschland, Deutschland über alles,
Und im Unglück nun erst recht.

5371. jexster - 2/24/2005 12:26:28 PM

Das Lied Der Deutschen MP3

5372. Wombat - 2/24/2005 12:29:32 PM

Wouldn't suprise me.

5373. jexster - 2/24/2005 12:39:03 PM

Stephen Colbert, Daily Show European Correspondent, explained the difference between "Old" and "New" Europe...

"When you are in Europe visiting museums, you're in Old Europe. When you are picking up "Susie Goes Anal Vol. 18", New Europe"

5374. jexster - 2/24/2005 3:22:53 PM

The Germans Bush Didn't See
Protesters made their feelings known in Mainz Wednesday as President Bush's itinerary avoided contact with everyday Germans. A meeting with the public was canceled for fear the audience would be hostile.

5375. jexster - 2/26/2005 4:49:40 AM

The Eagle Has Crash Landed...

Now stuck in IraQ, Caught between Sweden, Mother of all Evil, and the Rising Yellow Peril...

China's Quiet Rise to East Asian Dominance

According to some, after pacifying the Middle East and taking over Saudi/IraQ oil, Bush and his NeoCowboys had their eyes set on bringing China low..

hahahahhahaa

5376. PelleNilsson - 3/8/2005 11:56:15 AM

Ukraine says ex-minister killed self

The chief of Ukraine's security service has said that the country's former interior minister, Yuri Kravchenko, shot himself twice in the head last week, answering speculation that he had been killed by someone else.

Shot himself in the head twice? Yes, that will certainly kill the speculations.

5377. thoughtful - 3/8/2005 12:06:38 PM

Hahaha. Reminds me of the local cops who, after a car was abandoned in a mall parking lot for over a week, received an anonymous call saying they ought to check out the trunk. They looked in and found a guy hog tied and shot. The police said they ruled out suicide.

5378. arkymalarky - 3/8/2005 5:42:06 PM

Actually, I knew someone who committed suicide by shooting himself twice in the head--with a shotgun.

5379. robertjayb - 3/9/2005 5:10:07 PM

You causing trouble, Alistair?

PARIS (AP) -- Commuters face rail disruptions Thursday as unions planned major strikes across France, which will coincide with an International Olympic Committee inspection of Paris' bid for the 2012 Summer Games.

Paris commuter trains would be hardest hit, with only about 20 percent of suburban lines running, while half of France's long distance TGV trains would be suspended, the national rail authority said.

5380. Magoseph - 3/9/2005 5:50:47 PM

That's the kind of thing that absolutely enrages my brother--this weekend, I had to listen to another diatribe about the inanity of the 35-hour week.

5381. wonkers2 - 3/9/2005 6:00:45 PM

Adopting the 35-hour week was a serious mistake. Based on faulty economic theory. I've been reading that many European countries' social insurance programs are even more unsustainable than U.S. Social Security and Medicare.

5382. wonkers2 - 3/9/2005 6:01:53 PM

The European countries are no more able to isolate themselves for long from global competition than is the U.S.

5383. wonkers2 - 3/10/2005 9:18:30 AM

Another dumb Bush decision. Here.

5384. PelleNilsson - 3/10/2005 10:00:49 AM

One of the most interesting things in today's Europe is how the effects of globalization,ie. outsourcing of production to low-cost countries and so on, are being played out within the EU itself. The new entrants have much, much lower labour costs than the old ones. In addition several of them are pushing ahead with business-friendly flat tax regimes. A case in point is Slovakia where a tax of 19% applies to everything: salaried income, capital earnings, company profits and VAT. As a result Slovakia has attracted a lot of investments in particular in the car industry.

5385. ronski - 3/10/2005 2:46:28 PM

Everything you need to know, right here.

5386. Magoseph - 3/11/2005 8:20:25 AM

Posted originally in "The Invisible City".
Are we that bad?
United States
America by the numbers..No. 1?
By Michael Ventura
Mar 4, 2005, 02:13

No concept lies more firmly embedded in our national character than the notion that the USA is "No. 1," "the greatest." Our broadcast media are, in essence, continuous advertisements for the brand name "America Is No. 1." Any office seeker saying otherwise would be committing political suicide. In fact, anyone saying otherwise will be labeled "un-American." We're an "empire," ain't we? Sure we are. An empire without a manufacturing base. An empire that must borrow $2 billion a day from its competitors in order to function. Yet the delusion is ineradicable. We're No. 1. Well...this is the country you really live in:
(more)

5387. Macnas - 3/11/2005 8:25:58 AM

Hmm, far too much spin and bias for my liking. But some of the figures on thier own are saddening.

5388. jayackroyd - 3/11/2005 8:31:32 AM

Paris commuter trains would be hardest hit, with only about 20 percent of suburban lines running, while half of France's long distance TGV trains would be suspended, the national rail authority said.

The good news is that wouldn't affect the Olympic Committee's experience, as you wouldn't see them anywhere near a subway. The bad news is that anything that makes it more likely that the Olympics would come to New York is really bad news. What a disaster that would be, especially if they actually build a west side stadium.

5389. wonkers2 - 3/12/2005 10:13:04 AM

The Bullies of Belfast Here.

5390. Gebhard - 3/13/2005 2:29:31 PM

Silver Lining in Dollar Devaluation -
Can it Crack Century-old US Isolationism ?

I would like to resume the discussion re: the US dollar value. This is the most critical issue for the United States, in my opinion. And it is one that if studied can get US citizens to become aware of the country's place in the world.

I have had a hard time explaining to most Europeans the depth of the geographic isolationism in the US. (clearly over 50% of the citizenry) Hopefully, US citizens should try and understand the dollar devaluation (the decrease is something I thought unthinkable in my lifetime) and that can be the issue that finally cracks the long history of isolationism. The world community would benefit greatly from this kind of development.

I was in Venezuela during 1994 when their currency began to devalue preciptiously. Within a matter of months, the amount of money needed to party with the whole family for the weekend was reduced in value so that one could only by a loaf of bread. Fourteen banks failed, and millions of depositors camped outside the banks waiting for a glimmmer of hope. In a country that is one of the largest oil producers in the world. All because the country had lost the trust and faith of the major investor class.

It was quipped that "every Venezuelan is an economist." Actually global macroeconomist and foreign exchange "expert". I would explain to Venzuelans that in order to preserve their currency value, they must take care of their rich people or rebuild the resource-rich country almost from scratch. (As an aside, it looks like the decided to build from scratch, and I hope they can do it.)

Certainly, if nearly every Venezuelan can become a global macroeconomist, then certainly the US citizen can do it, too.

5391. PelleNilsson - 3/13/2005 3:46:08 PM

Welcome Gebhard!

I would venture to say that a comparison of Venezuela, a paltry state with a paltry economy and a paltry currency, with the US, the largest economy in the world whose currency is the world's reserve currency is meaningless and misleading. True, the dollar has depreciated by some 30% against the euro but what effects have that had? Do you see runaway inflation in the US? Banks failing? Investors rushing to get out? Of course you don't.

5392. arkymalarky - 3/13/2005 4:41:01 PM

The bigger they are....

Welcome to the Mote, Gebhard!

5393. Gebhard - 3/13/2005 7:58:59 PM

My goodness, quite provocative. Are you aware of the strategic importance of Venezuela's petroleum supply and reserve ? Probably "paltry" companies like Exxon will not appreciate disruptions in supply from the world's #5 oil producer conveniently located in the Western hemisphere. Especially, in light of the fact that Chavez has begun to seize large private landholdings (eg. 13,000 hectares from Vestey Group) and has invited the vast majority of the 28 million Venezuelans to squat at will. He has already tried to disrupt the oil supply prior to this.

When Allende took similar measure in Chile, investors disappeared, food supply became critical and "paltry" companies like ITT did not appreciate the restricted supply of copper from the Anaconda mine. Serious impacts on a corporate institution that rivals many nations, and necessitating US gov't "involvement" at the highest levels.

(As an aside, Colombian Cassandras fear "invasion" by the US, as an access point to gaining military control of the Venezuelan oil supply.)

The mere fact that major currency traders have lost a good deal of confidence in US economic and political leadership and thereby divested themselves of as many US dollars as possible (and reduced the US$ value in doing so) is enough of a red flag. Especially, in light of the fact, that the only thing that is continuing to hold the value is the Asian banks that hold so much US debt. They do not want to see a further devaluation of the dollar.

Thank goodness for them. Otherwise we would see greater devaluation. Further, as long as China continues to fix the yuan to the dollar, the dollar remains in good shape. But once the Chinese observe sufficient int'l confidence in their economic and political leadership and they let the yuan float, then the dollar will suffer another 20% - 30% loss.

Note: that until 2004, the Chinese have let the yuan float for one month each year, in order to observe its value against the dollar. Starting in 2004 they no longer do that innocous test, and I expect that is to avoid speculation on when they will no longer fix the yuan to the dollar.

Such words as "paltry", "innocous" and "insignificant" - terms so easily dismissive and superior. Let's talk in another year.

5394. jayackroyd - 3/13/2005 8:32:17 PM

The trouble is that if there is a run on the dollar, it will be a seriously big run. My retirement investments (I'm in my mid-40s) have long been in foreign instruments because I think it is almost certain that the dollar will be worth less when I retire than it is now. This administration is doing nothing to prevent such a run.

The Chinese, on the other hand, have enormous incentives to stop such a run. Which, in my view, just makes the bubble bigger.

5395. Marc-Albert - 3/13/2005 8:46:29 PM

Tiens! The Mote now has a passionate chavista in its midst. Well, why not?

5396. wonkers2 - 3/13/2005 8:56:58 PM

I fear that there may be much truth in what Gebhard and Jay are saying. Pete Peterson said much the same thing the other day at a seminar broadcast on C-Span. Several big guns were there including Robert Rubin and Greenspan.

I would be very much interested in what vehicles Jay is using to get his money out of the U.S. How about Vanguard's International or Europe or Pacific Index Funds? I've just recovered from the bath I took in 2000 and am not looking forward to another one.

5397. pseudoerasmus - 3/14/2005 5:37:25 AM

I don't see a hard landing scenario in the offing. A modest recession, much like the one in 1990-92 at worst. The Venezuela example is completely irrelevant, as Pelle said.

The dollar is massively overvalued, and needs to be devalued. Asian central banks should demand a higher coupon on US Treasury obligations.

The harms of the overvalued dollar:

(1) It implies relatively cheap financing of the US budget deficit, which encourages the current profligacy. The sooner the Asian central banks stop propping up the dollar, the greater the pressure for fiscal rectitude in the United States.

(2) To the extent that the current account deficit represents foreign financing of consumption and housing investment (as has been the case now in the noughties) as opposed to foreign financing of capital investment (as was the case in the nineties), then a rising foreign debt is not a good thing even if it is sustainable for a very long time. Unless the trade balance actually changes direction and starts moving toward surplus, the current account deficit will mushroom out of control from rising interest payments. The sooner the Asian central banks stop propping up the dollar, the sooner the adjustment in the current account can begin taking place.

(3) To the extent that American consumption is in part financed by world savings, this reduces the level of world investment and therefore retards world development. The world is becoming dangerously dependent on demand generated by the US market. US consumption constitutes a moral hazard delaying microeconomic reforms which would, in another situation, help create internal demand in East Asia and Western Europe as well as the developing countries. Ideally, all the developed countries should run current account surpluses, while the fast-growing developing countries (such as China and India) should run investment-driven deficits. But right now, even Russia and Mexico run surpluses and help finance US consumption. This is an unhealthy situation both for the USA and the rest of the world.

(4) The lack of full dollar depreciation (that would have happened under normal market conditions in the absence of Asian central bank intervention) keeps imported goods in the USA artificially cheap, miring the US export sector in continued recession, and keeps long-term interest rates artificially low, biasing US investment toward housing. If this continues, this can only lead to a faster deindustrialization in the USA than would have normally happened without Asian central bank intervention.

5398. alistairconnor - 3/14/2005 5:39:34 AM

hey, a fellow un-American! Welcome Gebhard. We are a vocal minority here.

The Venezuelan experiment is fascinating : old-style class war. It will be interesting to see how much social change he can get cemented in before he loses the elections. The problem being that, having fostered such an adversarial climate, the right will be seeking to roll it all back.

5399. alistairconnor - 3/14/2005 5:43:58 AM

But what will Asian central banks, with already overheating economies, do with their surpluses if they can't buy US bonds?

5400. pseudoerasmus - 3/14/2005 5:47:35 AM

They can buy those 50-year French bonds!

5401. alistairconnor - 3/14/2005 5:53:56 AM

Well, I reckon the EU central bank should be issuing bonds massively, to finance the development of the new entrants of central Europe. That would suck some juice out of the US deficit.

They won't, of course. The EU is completely useless in that respect, unable to make a strategic decision to save its life.

5402. pseudoerasmus - 3/14/2005 6:03:41 AM

The ECB isn't a bond-issuing body.

5403. alistairconnor - 3/14/2005 6:15:14 AM

My point exactly. What the hell use is it?

5404. alistairconnor - 3/14/2005 6:18:07 AM

OK, forget my technical illiteracy. A central bank is probably not the appropriate organ. But the EU should be issuing bonds, and sucking in Asian money.

5405. jayackroyd - 3/14/2005 8:00:32 AM

I would be very much interested in what vehicles Jay is using to get his money out of the U.S. How about Vanguard's International or Europe or Pacific Index Funds?

T Rowe Price. International Bond Fund. New Asia Fund. European Stock Fund.

5406. jayackroyd - 3/14/2005 8:02:26 AM

I agree with PE's analysis in 5397, except for the claim that there will be no hard landing. The longer the asian economies fight the cheaper dollar, the harder the landing will be.

5407. wonkers2 - 3/14/2005 8:08:32 AM

Thanks!

5408. Gebhard - 3/16/2005 2:17:55 AM

psuedoerasmus, thank you for your fine analysis. I will keep it.

Now we are getting somewhere. By the way, I didn't mean to indicate that the US would experience the kinds of effects that Venezuela experienced during their currency collapse. Venezuela is just a small crucible of which I am somewhat familiar. Clearly, it is a separate situation which is very interesting in itself.

Frankly, I am not sure how the vagaries in the petroleum economy will affect the US dollar, but it is worth some thought. Especially, seeing how much of our affluence was developed by the availability of cheap energy over the past century.

Regardless, I think the dollar value is a good "norte" or focus for discussion. And as the most concrete measure of our standing and success in the world. As a typical American, never in my lifetime did I expect the dollar to drop even slightly. (sorry alistair, I was born here and do not feel un-American in the slightest. Remember "free-thinking" - oh sorry that was in Ben Franklin's time). I think the country has been literally asleep on this issue of the dollar. I know that I was also asleep until 1994 and my experience in Venezuela. I won't mention it anymore. . .

5409. alistairconnor - 3/16/2005 4:36:09 AM

Don't apologise for being American... (where would we foreigners be if you undermine our stereotypes like that?)

I tend to be a bit obsessed with the value of the US dollar -- perhaps excessively so. The effect of its decline on the US economy is probably pretty marginal; It's more the disruptive effect on other economies that is interesting, hard to predict, and perhaps very destructive.

I'm not so sure that oil at $50 or $60 is such a big deal either -- although I've been pushing a "peak oil" point of view, it looks like the overall economic effect is pretty marginal. If China can absorb the price increase while maintaining an obscene level of economic growth, then it's surely no big deal for the US or Europe.

On the contrary, feel free to talk about Venezuela. It's a fascinating socio-political laboratory at the moment...

5410. thoughtful - 3/16/2005 9:16:42 AM

I agree with some of what pseue posted. Where I disagree are:

1. I don't think this crowd gives one whit about the impact of interest rates on the deficit. In fact, I don't think the bushies care one iota about the deficit. A cursory look at their policy proposals: including the huge costs of their social security privatization plan, their ignoring the enormous costs of medicare/medicaid and their intractability on the tax cut, hundreds of billions on iraq, all confirm that.

2. I can't square the 'massively overvalued' dollar with the 'modest recession...at worst'. While it's in China's interest to maintain stability, the problem with currency movements is they can be very difficult to control, especially when the 'control' is an economy the size of China's, which is already struggling with sterilizing the impact of the massive flood of reserves. The longer the dollar/rmb remain out of balance, the more likely the $ is to crack. The impact of a $ crack on China will be very large. For the US, the impact could be significant if it leads to a deflation in housing markets and a run up in interest rates. We know a fair amount about stimulating economies out of inventory cycle recessions. We know a whole lot less about stimulating economies out of asset deflation....to wit, Japan.

In my view, China is still working diligently on getting its domestic banking system in order and won't consider chaning its xrate until it feels the system is in order...2006 at the very earliest.

But the even larger problem is, say the rmb appreciates. So what? It is unlikely to lead to an improvement in the trade balance any time soon. If you've seen the roubini/setser stuff on what it takes to improve the trade balance, the numbers are very scary indeed.

Last time the $ & trade deficit ran up, it took the plaza accord with reagan, the great communicator, sweet-talking the trading partners to bring around an orderly decline in the $. This crowd has demonstrated very little interest in international comity, or even a sense that policy coordination can be a good thing.

I see very little to be optimistic about here.

5411. thoughtful - 3/16/2005 9:18:59 AM

speaking of which, the current account balance just came out...set a new record deficit at $187.9B, beating expectations.

5412. jayackroyd - 3/16/2005 9:30:25 AM

on 2 on 5410, recall what happened to Japan when they accepted huge numbers of dollars in exhange for US stocks, real property and consumer goods. It wasn't the US that got burned when the dollar crashed and Japanese investments tanked.

5413. thoughtful - 3/16/2005 9:42:09 AM

OMG! Just announced bush will name wolfie to head the world bank!

If this and Bolton aren't enough fun, just wait to the supreme court appointments!

5414. jayackroyd - 3/16/2005 9:45:05 AM

Unbelievably bad decision. The very existence of the Bank conflicts with everything Wolfowitz believes in. The Bank already has a reputation as purely American organization. This kind of extremely partisan appointment is going to be very damaging.

5415. thoughtful - 3/16/2005 9:52:10 AM

re 5412, I would argue that china's role in the world economy today is a significant one...it has been one of the critical engines of growth, esp for SE asia and commodity exporting countries. If China tanks, a good chunk of the world will go with it. If the us once again stands alone as the engine of global growth, it will only exacerbate the trade deficit.

And with us housing starts hitting a 21-year high today, the longer the housing bubble inflates, the more painful the crash will be. That's what I meant with my 'to wit Japan'. It's our asset bubble collapse that will be painful for all. And without any overseas demand to lift US exporters the way it has for japan, it's likely to be a long slow recovery.

I just don't see a good solution here.

5416. jayackroyd - 3/16/2005 10:12:41 AM

If China tanks, a good chunk of the world will go with it.

The same was said to be true of Japan Inc.

On the housing bubble, I'm like the Economist--I've been pointing to it for at least 5 years, and it just keeps on going. There's a point in time when you may have to just admit that these price increases are real. It's like the current account deficit. It seems my entire adult life we've been told the American system is at risk because of the large and growing current account deficit, yet nothing ever seems to come of it.

Also, the downside risk of a possible housing bubble is a lot smaller. If the value of their properties fall, people can just stay there until it rises again. There's no risk of a JDS Uniphase like collapse where the investor loses everything. Well, maybe not those people who put 100,000 dollars down on a 500,000 dollar house that falls to 300,000 shortly after the purchase. They may walk away. But the effect on your credit rating of walking away is mighty high.

Here in the City, though, the pace of expansion into the outer boroughs and formerly unacceptable neighborhoods has been astounding. And the rise in prices in my neighborhood have been remarkable. Maybe it's a bubble, but the people we're seeing buying apartments in my building could certainly ride out a 20 percent correction.

5417. thoughtful - 3/16/2005 10:34:40 AM

There's a point in time when you may have to just admit that these price increases are real.

That's what irving fisher said about the stock market in Oct 1929...looks to have reached a permanently high plateau.

That's what they said about the dot.com bubble...greenspan was warning about irrational exuberance back in 1996.

I've learned too many times over the years not to bet against the fundamentals, and the fundamentals say that the US, even as a reserve currency, cannot borrow money forever. I suggest you read what roubini/setser have to say about bretton-woods II.

5418. thoughtful - 3/16/2005 10:41:09 AM

hmmm....that first line was supposed to be italicized....sorry about that.

5419. jayackroyd - 3/16/2005 11:09:35 AM

Yes, that's certainly true. But for each of those incorrect bulls there have a been half a dozen incorrect bears. IAC, my central argument was that housing is a different kind of investment. Its illiquidity is a bulwark against a bursting bubble. It may go flat or down 10 percent or so, but people pretty much have to buy and hold. The worst I've seen in this area was about a 20% drop after the Bush recession. It's tripled or quadrupled since then.

5420. thoughtful - 3/16/2005 11:40:41 AM

see calculated risk for a chart on real and nominal real estate prices in california

5421. jayackroyd - 3/16/2005 11:51:15 AM

But he makes my point:

Real Estate prices are “sticky downward” since sellers are slow to adjust their prices down, and buyers are reluctant to buy a declining price asset.

5422. PelleNilsson - 3/16/2005 1:49:22 PM

In my view there is too much focus on China. One would think that it singlehandedly underwrites the US deficit. That is not the case, not by far. According to the Economist the US 12-month current account deficit was $600 bn. China's surplus was $46 bn. By comparison Japan had a surplus of $172 bn, Germany $103 bn and Russia $58 bn.

thoughtful is of course right when she says that it is the fundamentals that count. But are the fundamentals the same over time? Look at this diagram of oil prices in constant 2000 dollars. The period of high prices starting in 1973 crippled western economies. But now prices are near their historical high and there is healthy growth all over, except in the African basket cases.

5423. PelleNilsson - 3/16/2005 1:57:25 PM

Regarding Wolfowitz it will be interesting to see the reaction of the European members of the board. But it would be foolish to assume that the Bush administration has not sounded them out. According to BBC "His nomination has been welcomed by International Monetary Fund head Rodrigo de Rato and UK Foreign Secretary Jack Straw. Both men praised Mr Wolfowitz's experience and said they were looking forward to working with him. Mr Straw said the US president's choice was "very distinguished and experienced internationally"."

5424. thoughtful - 3/16/2005 1:59:12 PM

Pelle, I'm not sure which numbers you are looking at, but I suspect you are looking at total trade deficit and not bilateral. China does run trade deficits with other countries from which it gets raw materials and semi-manufactured goods which are then shipped to China for final assembly.

The bilateral data i see quoted are that china is about 25% of the US trade deficit. This is consistent with the latest numbers here for the goods deficit. In January China's deficit was $15.3B and the total was $62.3B.

5425. pseudoerasmus - 3/16/2005 2:00:52 PM

Capital inflows to China far exceed its trade surplus, so looking at surplus figures by themselves tell you nothing about its reserve accumulation. China also buys up dollar assets through intermediaries which are not immediately obvious. Also, China's role is not revealed by numbers alone, however. Other Asian central banks track China's exchange rate policy closely.

5426. pseudoerasmus - 3/16/2005 2:10:12 PM

Alistair, there is already such a thing as the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, which issues bonds (like the World Bank) and relends them for development.

I think Thoughtful is mindlessly apeing Roubini, a professional Cassandra whose mind is stuck in Third World currency crises. And her comparison with Japan is downright silly. There is just no parallel in the US housing market with the Japanese asset bubble of the 1980s. The Japanese real estate bubble was fuelled by growth in bank assets (i.e., unsecuritied loans) and by the fact that Japanese banks were allowed to count shares as part of their capital base. There is nothing comparable in the USA. The US real estate loans are securitised. So a burst bubble in the US housing market will not result in the epidemic of bank insolvencies and credit contraction that Japan was subjected to. At worst, it will depress consumption, which is a good thing at the moment, in my opinion.

"I can't square the 'massively overvalued' dollar with the 'modest recession...at worst'.

I guess you don't recognise any significant differences between small open economies and large open economies.

"But the even larger problem is, say the rmb appreciates. So what? It is unlikely to lead to an improvement in the trade balance any time. If you've seen the roubini/setser stuff on what it takes to improve the trade balance, the numbers are very scary indeed. "

I think the Roubini-Setser calculations use full-employment assumptions. That is, they are ignoring the cyclical effects of currency movements and only predicting structural current account balances. In the long run, naturally, only savings and productivity dynamics change the structural balance. Exchange rates do not directly affect the trade balance much, because one country's depressed import demand is another country's depressed export growth and the net effects are not large. But exchange rate movements do affect interest rates, which will depress US consumption overall.

All these people who are talking up a scare about a hard landing also want the budget balanced. But balancing the budget is at best a temporary solution to structural current account imbalances, since consumption and investment will eventually rise to reduce national saving yet again. That's what happened in the 1990s. In the early 1990s, the current account was nearly balanced (because of the recession) and as the economy recovered and boomed, and even as the US budget balanced turned toward surplus, the US current account deficit climbed to nearly 5% of GDP.

5427. pseudoerasmus - 3/16/2005 2:58:42 PM

As for Wolfowitz, the appointment is not as interesting or dramatic as if he had been appointed IMF managing director (which is usually reserved for Europeans, anyway).

5428. thoughtful - 3/16/2005 3:34:18 PM

Ah Pseue, so nice to 'see' you again.

You do recall the RTC and the S&L crisis don't you? So it's not that there are no parallels between Japan's and the US housing market. And as far as securitizing the debt, that only changes who and how many are left holding the bag. The S&L crisis at least had federal insurance backing. These securitized portfolios have none. Forget the $9B in losses at Fannie Mae (at least what we know about). Forget that housing demand is above what anyone would consider to be consistent with demographics. Forget signs of overbuilding in key regions like CA, FL, and the northeast. Forget net national savings falling like a rock. We have risk managers who are not being compensated for the risks they are bearing....risk spreads are at record lows. Yet they continue to lend. Why? Because that's what they do. We are talking about loans being issued as 'no doc'. That means no documentation. You walk in, tell them you're related to donald trump and they lend you money. We have mortgages being issued at 125% of equity. We've had a dramatic growth in subprime loans...no one knows how poorly they will perform in a recession. We have consumers who have continued to spend through a jobless recovery, not based on income growth, but by tapping the asset value in their homes. These highly leveraged balance sheets are dependent on rising house prices and low interest rates. We are losing one and at risk of losing the other. No one knows what the fall out will be. But it is likely to be substantial. And while you're right that from a trade deficit point of view lower consumption is desirable, it is also the heart of recessions in the US where consumers account for 2/3rds of GDP.

That's not even addressing the growing bifurcation of income which is driving growing numbers of people into precarious financial health.

And key differences between the trade deficit in the early 90s and now is that then the rest of the world was growing sufficiently to support US export growth; and US was much less dependent on imports in order to export. (Can't remember where but I recently saw a chart illustrating the different elasticities for US imports vs exports...)

I hope you're right that it will just be a mild downturn, but I suspect it won't be. The problem is, the longer it is in coming, the worse it will be when it happens.

And remember, Cassandra was right...just no one would believe her.

5429. pseudoerasmus - 3/16/2005 4:25:36 PM

"You do recall the RTC and the S&L crisis don't you? So it's not that there are no parallels between Japan's and the US housing market."

I still don't see the parallel. The causes of the two are quite different. But even disregarding the differences, the scale is also incomparable. Bad debt in Japan is on the scale of at least $1 trillion. The S&L crisis ended up costing about $150 billion, in a much larger economy.

"And as far as securitizing the debt, that only changes who and how many are left holding the bag."

Investor losses in securitised debt don't result in a general contraction of credit. A big big difference. Also, securitisation means that the total risk in the financial system is much more widely spread than if domestic financial institutions held the bad loans. This is particularly true since so much of the US mortgage and consumer debt has been financed through international capital inflows.

"And while you're right that from a trade deficit point of view lower consumption is desirable, it is also the heart of recessions in the US where consumers account for 2/3rds of GDP."

Well, you want to increase saving and reduce the current account deficit on a long term structural basis, right? That requires a permanent fall in consumption. Hell, as soon as things settle down, I would also (a) eliminate the tax-deductibility of mortgage interest, so that it becomes more expensive to buy houses, which means that Americans will be forced to save more in order to acquire a house; and (b) tax or regulate the consumer credit market, so that consumer credit (credit cards, home equity loans, auto loans) becomes less accessible, and Americans will be forced to save more before making big-ticket purchases.

"And key differences between the trade deficit in the early 90s and now is that then the rest of the world was growing sufficiently to support US export growth; and US was much less dependent on imports in order to export. (Can't remember where but I recently saw a chart illustrating the different elasticities for US imports vs exports...)"

You mean that the US import elasticity is much greater than non-US import elasticity. That's because most economies are structurally less able to generate as much internal demand as the USA. But this situation has to change. Can't think of a better time and a better incentive, than a fall in US import demand.

5430. alistairconnor - 3/17/2005 6:50:38 AM

Message # 5423 Pelle, yes I'm sure Straw is diplomatically delighted that one of the "fucking crazies" (Cheney, Rumsfeld and Wolfowitz, as described in a famous phone call from his friend Powell) has this new key role.

Undoubtedly the shining example of the efficient use of US aid money to Iraq is what qualifies Wolfowitz for the job.

5431. alistairconnor - 3/17/2005 6:53:09 AM

We are talking about loans being issued as 'no doc'. That means no documentation. You walk in, tell them you're related to donald trump and they lend you money. We have mortgages being issued at 125% of equity.

Hey, can I get a piece of that? European banks are such fuddy duddies.

Well, you want to increase saving and reduce the current account deficit on a long term structural basis, right? That requires a permanent fall in consumption.

Heretic! Burn him at the stake!

5432. alistairconnor - 3/17/2005 6:57:47 AM

Message # 5426 there is already such a thing as the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, which issues bonds (like the World Bank) and relends them for development.

Yes, but
a) it isn't an EU organ, there are 60 governments with a finger in the pie, and half its lending is outside the EU
b) it loaned about 4 billion euros last year, which is surely at least an order of magnitude less that what the EU should be borrowing and investing.

I want to get us some of that free money the US is currently paying the groceries with.

5433. PelleNilsson - 3/17/2005 11:14:58 AM

Yes, the EBRD is not a EU bank but its lending is confined to Europe (albeit somewhat loosely defined). The European Investment Bank, on the other hand, is a EU bank but it lends outside Europe as well as inside.

5434. pseudoerasmus - 3/17/2005 11:21:25 AM

I think all the newly acceded EU countries are running current account deficits, so they are already importing capital.

5435. jexster - 3/17/2005 12:00:54 PM

RU Euros as "Shocked and Bewildered" as the WaPo headline proclaims?

5436. PelleNilsson - 3/17/2005 12:36:28 PM

Over here there is apprehension. Some see it as a move in the US fight against abortion. A spokesman for Swedish aid put it into the context of the recent nomination of Ann Veneman as head of UNICEF. She is on record as saying the the agency should not be involved in "reproductive health".

5437. thoughtful - 3/17/2005 1:10:19 PM

This is getting really scary. I guess it's the combination of bush being so effective at making change and shaking things up combined with always doing it in the wrong direction. How can he manage to be so consistently wrong? you figure odds are he'd get something right once in awhile, no?

5438. wonkers2 - 3/17/2005 2:42:13 PM

No.

5439. jayackroyd - 3/21/2005 6:06:46 PM

Pelle--

Tom Friedman today recommended al Sistani for the Nobel Peace Prize. I concur. Can you get in touch with powers that be, and get him on the list, please.

5440. sakonige - 3/21/2005 7:07:40 PM

Hamid Karzai deserves a Nobel Peace prize far more than al Sistani, in my opinion. Karzai has really put his life on the line to serve his country.

5441. PelleNilsson - 3/21/2005 11:48:48 PM

The Peace Price is awarded by he Norwegian Parliament. There is nothing I can do.

5442. sakonige - 3/22/2005 12:02:36 AM

dang, that must be really frustrating.

5443. jayackroyd - 3/22/2005 12:38:39 AM

You're closer than we are. WRT to Karzai, al Sistani has accomplished much more in the cause of peace than Karzai has, even though I agree that he is a brave man trying to serve his battered country.

Al Sistani has also done this while consistently preaching a message of non-violence. He just adamantly held the administration to its word, and got something approaching real elections.

5444. sakonige - 3/22/2005 12:51:27 AM

I think al Sistani has a hidden agenda.

5445. sakonige - 3/22/2005 1:05:26 AM

The US would be in much deeper shit if Karzai had not been there to pick up the pieces in Afghanistan. The pieces of Iraq haven't been broken off yet. Their civil war is still in the offing.

5446. jayackroyd - 3/22/2005 3:01:48 AM

Al sistani does have an agenda, but I think it is one that is the interest of peace.

I agree completely with 5445.

I believe that the impact in the oppressed arab world of OECD recognition of someone who stood up to the United States and demanded that they do what they promised would be substantial.

Leave that aside. I think al Sistani ranks with Mandela, Havel, Solidarnoscz (there are too many people to pick out) He has shown restraint in the face of enormous provocation, but he has been unyielding. Praise him.

5447. sakonige - 3/22/2005 9:15:28 AM

I suspect what al Sistani has actually shown is premeditation and patience. Even al Sadr can do that much. They knew they had to act fast to cut out the Sunnis and they know they won't have to wait long for the Americans to leave.

5448. Wombat - 3/22/2005 10:20:08 AM

Boy..I never thought that I could say this, but I agree with Sakonige. Quite a few things have to shake out before we start awarding Sistani any prizes. He has certainly been the voice of reason, and has done much to keep the Shiites in line, but he perceives this to be in the Shiites' interest. We'll start handing out prizes when he successfully convinces the Shiites to give up a little of their power for the greater good of Iraq. I am not seeing that yet.

5449. concerned - 3/22/2005 10:38:06 AM

He just adamantly held the administration to its word, and got something approaching real elections.

Puhleeze. Sistani doesn't have enough influence to have allowed or denied these Iraq elections which were possible purely due to coalition intervention.

5450. concerned - 3/22/2005 10:45:02 AM

JA is perfectly comfortable with the coarsest kind of religious fundamentalism - as long as it's not Christian.

5451. concerned - 3/22/2005 10:45:02 AM

JA is perfectly comfortable with the coarsest kind of religious fundamentalism - as long as it's not Christian.

5452. Wombat - 3/22/2005 10:50:31 AM

Back to more familiar territory...Does Concerned have any idea of the difference between Shia and Sunni Islam? If he did, he wouldn't have come out with such nonsense.

Had Sistani had not supported elections, and then insisted that they not be postponed, the "coalition" would be fighting a much larger insurgency across even more of Iraq than they are now. Sistani played a key role in discouraging more Shia from joining Sadr's bunch, and in providing the U.S. enough breathing room (barely) to supress Sadr.

5453. concerned - 3/22/2005 10:56:13 AM

Sistani's 'insistence' or lack thereof was irrelevant to the timing of the elections. I don't doubt he kept his Shia followers somewhat more pacified than they would otherwise have been, but on that did not hinge the success or failure of the coalition effort.

5454. concerned - 3/22/2005 10:57:17 AM

More self referential bleating from Wombat, I see.

5455. wonkers2 - 3/22/2005 10:59:33 AM

Seems to me a Nobel Prize would be a bit premature at this point. He does appear to take a longer range view of things than many others.

5456. Wombat - 3/22/2005 11:01:07 AM

If the Brits had to face the degree of violence in the south of Iraq (Shia territory) as the U.S. is facing in other parts of Iraq, they would pull out. Concerned does not appear to be aware of the amount of influence that in Shia Islam the Ayatollah holds over his followers (remember Iran?).

5457. concerned - 3/22/2005 11:07:37 AM

Well, I have to go along with that. IAC, it's premature, at best, to award al Sistani any sort of peace prize at this point in time.

5458. jayackroyd - 3/22/2005 11:37:51 AM

We'll start handing out prizes when he successfully convinces the Shiites to give up a little of their power for the greater good of Iraq. I am not seeing that yet.

That's fair enough. But he has prevented at least as much bloodshed as Kissinger did, and has at least created a framework for a peaceful resolution by patiently holding the Americans to their rhetoric and, as you say, tamping down the Shiite radicals.

The proof, as you also say, will be in how the deal with the Kurds gets cut and how the Sunnis are treated now that they are on the bottom. I'm hoping that they'll recall the words of the Polish minister when pressed to release the secret police records of informants--"Their ways are not our ways."

5459. jayackroyd - 3/22/2005 11:39:40 AM

Sistani's 'insistence' or lack thereof was irrelevant to the timing of the elections.

His insistence made the elections happen. The US had no plans for elections for at least two years. They were going to install another interim government, but al Sistani insisted on elections, and then held firm in the face of many calls for delay.

5460. jayackroyd - 3/22/2005 11:44:19 AM

Here's the list since '68. Fewer than I expected would I label "premature." Kissinger and Le Duc Tho stand out more than I expected.

2004 Wangari Maathai

2003 Shirin Ebadi

2002 Jimmy Carter

2001 United Nations, Kofi Annan

2000 Kim Dae-jung

1999 Médecins Sans Frontières

1998 John Hume, David Trimble

1997 International Campaign to Ban Landmines, Jody Williams

1996 Carlos Filipe Ximenes Belo, José Ramos-Horta

1995 Joseph Rotblat, Pugwash Conferences on Science and World Affairs

1994 Yasser Arafat, Shimon Peres, Yitzhak Rabin

1993 Nelson Mandela, F.W. de Klerk

1992 Rigoberta Menchú Tum

1991 Aung San Suu Kyi

1990 Mikhail Gorbachev

1989 The 14th Dalai Lama

1988 United Nations Peacekeeping Forces

1987 Oscar Arias Sánchez

1986 Elie Wiesel

1985 International Physicians for the Prevention of Nuclear War

1984 Desmond Tutu

1983 Lech Walesa

1982 Alva Myrdal, Alfonso García Robles

1981 Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees

1980 Adolfo Pérez Esquivel

1979 Mother Teresa

1978 Anwar al-Sadat, Menachem Begin

1977 Amnesty International

1976 Betty Williams, Mairead Corrigan

1975 Andrei Sakharov

1974 Seán MacBride, Eisaku Sato

1973 Henry Kissinger, Le Duc Tho

1972 The prize money for 1972 was allocated to the Main Fund

1971 Willy Brandt

1970 Norman Borlaug

1969 International Labour Organization

1968 René Cassin

5461. sakonige - 3/22/2005 12:33:07 PM

His insistence made the elections happen.

Al Sistani made sure the elections happened while the Sunnis were unable to vote.

5462. jayackroyd - 3/22/2005 12:42:04 PM

Huh? You mean when the Sunnis were so busy shooting up the country?

5463. sakonige - 3/22/2005 12:48:32 PM

The quicker the elections, the sooner and more completely the US is out of Iraq. The sooner and more completely the US withdraws, the less capability it will have in using Iraq as a base of operations in an assault on Iran. It makes sense for al Sistani to use the political momentum of the situation while it is swinging in his favor. In the euphoria following the rushed elections, the Americans will jump at the excuse to leave, and he knows it.

5464. sakonige - 3/22/2005 12:49:22 PM

Huh? You mean when the Sunnis were so busy shooting up the country?

Right. The Sunnis couldn't go to the polls. What better time for the Shias to hold an election?

5465. sakonige - 3/22/2005 12:51:10 PM

The Americans are in such a panic to pull out, they have effectively handed half the country to Iran. It is amusing to see someone suggest al Sistani deserves a Nobel Peace Prize for pulling it off.

5466. sakonige - 3/22/2005 12:52:11 PM

Sombody should have noticed something was up when al Sadr suddenly got so quiet.

5467. alistairconnor - 3/23/2005 4:31:51 AM

That, I think, is a better reason why al Sistani should get the peace prize.

I thought, when the occupiers had managed to spark off a two-front insurrection (Falluja and the Shiite holy cities) that it was a tipping point.

I thought that Iraqi patriots, faced with the choice between a Shiite-Sunni alliance to defeat the occupation, or sitting tight and hoping (despite the occupier's blunders and mixed motives), for a brighter future), would join the barricades... and die in their thousands.

Al-Sistani threw all his weight behind the peaceful option. This may have been a mere cynical calculation on his part. Or it may be that he preferred peace to war. Or both.

5468. sakonige - 3/23/2005 8:46:14 AM

> That, I think, is a better reason why al Sistani should get the peace prize.

Don't be silly. They obviously cut a deal, like rival gang members with a common enemy. Anyone who was paying attention to the timing could see it. There was a secret meeting, and al Sadr did an instantaneous 180º turn with not one word of explanation.

5469. sakonige - 3/23/2005 8:49:17 AM

I don't think it will take long for the proof to pudding out, anyway. I bet a guy in another forum that the Bush administration would publicly blaming eachother and making excuses for allowing Iran to control half of Iraq by next January. We'll see.

5470. alistairconnor - 3/23/2005 8:54:51 AM

Don't be silly. They obviously cut a deal, like rival gang members with a common enemy.

How does that contradict anything I said? Sadr wanted war, Sistani wanted peace, Sistani prevailed.

allowing Iran to control half of Iraq by next January

I think that's silly. Sistani is not an Iranian stooge, and a Shiite-dominated government will do its best to defend Iraqi iterests, by its own lights. And Sistani is way more progressive than the Iranian mullahs : he's not calling for any formal power for the clerics.

5471. PelleNilsson - 3/23/2005 10:00:04 AM

sakonigi is not known for her deep geopolitical insights.

5472. sakonige - 3/23/2005 10:21:45 AM

Sadr wanted war, Sistani wanted peace, Sistani prevailed.

Nobody wants war. They want power.

Sistani is not an Iranian stooge

You're an idiot.

he's not calling for any formal power for the clerics.

why would he do that while the Americans are still occupying the country?

5473. sakonige - 3/23/2005 10:25:46 AM

#5471

You should try to do something about your being such an asshole. I've seen people tell you that over and over, but it just doesn't sink in.

5474. alistairconnor - 3/23/2005 10:41:33 AM

You're an idiot.

Thank you. How about addressing the issue?

Sistani's theology with respect to temporal power is quite distinct from that of Khomeini, which was the foundation for the Islamic republic in Iran. It's not a matter of opportunism, it's a long-standing doctrine.

If it turns out that Iran and Iraq have convergent interests and can coexist in peace, I think that's a good thing. Bearing in mind that they bled each other dry in one of the 20th century's most ghastly wars (manipulated by the Western powers).

5475. alistairconnor - 3/23/2005 10:42:30 AM

Message # 5473 My. You're living in a glass house today.

5476. sakonige - 3/23/2005 11:20:02 AM

If it turns out that Iran and Iraq have convergent interests and can coexist in peace, I think that's a good thing.

You think so? I guess an Iraqi civil war will make for good television.

5477. jayackroyd - 3/23/2005 11:22:16 AM

Where did that come from? The election seems to have distinctly reduced the risk of civil war, despite efforts on the parts of the Sunnis to start such a war.

5478. sakonige - 3/23/2005 11:22:55 AM

Sistani's theology with respect to temporal power is quite distinct from that of Khomeini, which was the foundation for the Islamic republic in Iran.

yeah, right. He was born in Iran, educated in Iran, and lived most of his life in Iran. He arranged for hundreds of thousands of fellow Iranians to vote in the Iraqi elections. But he is quite distinct from an Iranian.

5479. sakonige - 3/23/2005 11:28:41 AM

Where did that come from? The election seems to have distinctly reduced the risk of civil war, despite efforts on the parts of the Sunnis to start such a war.

Jesus Christ, how can you be so gullible? How can you not realize both the Shi'ites and the Kurds are just kissing American ass until the occupation is over?

5480. jayackroyd - 3/23/2005 11:37:30 AM

Actually, the problem that is going to arise is that the Americans don't plan on the occupation ever being over. The plan is for permanent military bases in Iraq.

5481. jexster - 3/23/2005 11:40:42 AM

Found in Lies

Time's a wastin Jay ;)

5482. sakonige - 3/23/2005 11:42:53 AM

Actually, the problem that is going to arise is that the Americans don't plan on the occupation ever being over. The plan is for permanent military bases in Iraq.

American plans don't amount to squat when you are talking about Iraq. That's been proven.

5483. PelleNilsson - 3/23/2005 12:19:46 PM

I much prefer being an informed asshole over being an ignorant sweet-talker like you, sakonige.

5484. jayackroyd - 3/23/2005 1:57:22 PM

riverbend agrees with sakonige:

peace prize

I got an interesting email today telling me about an internet petition to nominate Sistani, of all people, for the Nobel Peace Prize. That had me laughing and a little bit incredulous. Why should Sistani get the Nobel Peace Prize? Because he urged his followers to vote for a list that wants to implement an Iranian-styled government in Iraq? Is that what the Nobel Peace Prize has come to?

Someone once told me that they thought Sistani was responsible for the fact that civil war didn’t break out in Iraq. That’s garbage. Sistani has no influence over Sunnis and he also has little influence over many Shia. Civil war hasn’t broken out in Iraq because Iraqis are being tolerant and also because we’re very tired. It’s like we spent our lives in conflict with someone or another, and being in conflict with each other is not the most tempting option right now. Sistani is an Iranian cleric quietly pushing a frightening agenda and we're feeling the pressure of it every day.

5485. jexster - 3/23/2005 2:53:22 PM

It is 9 pm in Goteburg, do you know where Peter-the0-Moron is?

5486. jexster - 3/23/2005 2:56:07 PM

tick...tick..tick..tick

5487. jexster - 3/23/2005 2:58:50 PM

WASHINGTON (AP) — President Bush said Wednesday that American troops under fire in Iraq aren't about to pull out, and he challenged those tempted to attack U.S. forces, "Bring them on."

5488. jexster - 3/23/2005 2:59:24 PM

Pelle and anyone else are MOST welcome

5489. sakonige - 3/23/2005 3:06:35 PM

people may be tired of war, but that doesn't mean they won't fight. Iran is going to do everything it can to protect itself from a US invasion. The Kurds are not going to yield the best chance for independence they have had in modern times. The millions of disaffected Sunnis in Iraq aren't going to just disappear.

5490. jayackroyd - 3/23/2005 4:28:40 PM

And your point is?

5491. sakonige - 3/23/2005 5:58:14 PM

Americans have sown a civil war in Iraq.

5492. Gebhard - 3/23/2005 9:44:42 PM

Thanks for the discussion on China. I like the idea of the appropriate EU institution issuing bonds.

Re: Wolfowitz - remember when the Bagdhad hotel that he was staying in took a rocket ? That scared him. Probably the first time he really understood the real consequences of his academic ideas.

Also, remember the information that was obtained from a suspected terrorist listing various buildings as targets for attack ? including IMF and World Bank buildings in Washington, DC ? This supports the idea that those institutions are perceived as pro-American. Certainly, his appointment doesn't help. (Just for my sake, don't call him "Wolfie", that was my grandfather's name.)

By the way, we are at war. It is not an amorphous, indistinguishable enemy. It is a specific enemy, and our leaders do us great disservice by indicating otherwise. Further, the enemy has specific agenda points. Six primary ones, in fact, but we don't negotiate with them because they are "terrorists".

It seems that it is 'war' when we want war, terrorism when we want terrorism. I would say that it is war.

My question is, do we negotiate with our enemies of war ? Did we make overtures to the USSR to mediate with Hitler towards the end ? I have not been able to find time to research this properly. Perhaps someone can lend some historical insight.

5493. Gebhard - 3/23/2005 9:48:27 PM

Who said that it is the Job of leadership to simply "define reality" ? Despite reality being an immutable, concrete fact, it is odd that so few can. I don't blame reality, I blame the imperfect human mind.

5494. Gebhard - 3/23/2005 11:50:49 PM

5495. jayackroyd - 3/24/2005 3:12:55 AM

By the way, we are at war. It is not an amorphous, indistinguishable enemy. It is a specific enemy,

Who would that be?

5496. alistairconnor - 3/24/2005 3:51:11 AM

Further, the enemy has specific agenda points. Six primary ones, in fact, but we don't negotiate with them because they are "terrorists".

I have a sinking feeling that there's a conspiracy theory coming up...

OK Gebhard, I'll be your shill. Please explain about the six-point agenda.

5497. Gebhard - 3/24/2005 9:20:00 AM

Who is our specific enemy ? A small guerilla force, who blew up the Trade Center towers. The six primary points are on page 241 of "Imperial Hubris" by Anonymous - now known (after his resignation) to be Michael Scheier former head of the Al Qaeda desk at the CIA.

Actually they are six US policies with which Al Qaeda strongly objects. I would not advocate acceding to their objections, but it is important to understand the objections.

1) US support for Israel that subjugates Palestinians
2) US and other Western troop presence in the Arabian peninsula
3) US occupation of Iraq and Afghanistan
4) US support for Russia, India and China against their Muslim militants
5) US pressure on Arab energy producers to keep oil prices low
6) US support for apostate, corrupt and tyrannical Muslim governments

This is why they blew up the towers. I would say they are an enemy.

PS: The only thing I like about Hugo Chaves is the fact that in his public appearances, he keeps a vacant seat next to his. The vacant seat is for Simon Bolivar. Luckily, I will never have any public appearances, but as some of you might guess, my vacant seat would be for Ben.

5498. PelleNilsson - 3/24/2005 12:14:37 PM

Protesters oust Kyrgyz government

The opposition in Kyrgyzstan says it has taken control of the capital, Bishkek, after overrunning the president's palace.
Protesters confronted supporters of President Askar Akayev before flooding into government offices.

A prominent Kyrgyz opposition leader, Felix Kulov, made a televised appeal for calm after being freed from jail.

Demonstrations were stepped up after recent parliamentary elections, which the opposition said were rigged.

An unconfirmed report by Interfax news agency said Mr Akayev and his family have left Bishkek by helicopter.

Kyrgyzstan's Supreme Court has annulled February's controversial elections and recognised the former parliament as the legitimate legislature, Russia's Itar-Tass news agency quoted court chairman, Kurmanbek Osmonov, as saying.

This may be good news and it may not. We know that the apparently victorious opposition was against the Akayev regime but apart from that its agenda is not clear.

5499. jayackroyd - 3/24/2005 2:27:41 PM

5497

Gebhard, I don't think that's true. Those are the items they list, but I don't think they're sincere in listing them. Their real ultimate goal is reestablishment of the Caliphate, while their proximate goal is the elimination of American (or, if you prefer) western consumerist, hedonist culture from Islamic societies.

IN particular:

1) US support for Israel that subjugates Palestinians
Arafat's death has opened up peace talks. If they were sincere in this regard they would be encouraging those talks and holding Sharon at his word on some promises he has made.

2) US and other Western troop presence in the Arabian peninsula

Actually Saudi Arabis is the issue, and those troops have been essentially withdrawn.

3) US occupation of Iraq and Afghanistan

The Afghan occupation is minimal. They despised Saddam's regime. We still have to see whether the US is prepared for withdrawal.

4) US support for Russia, India and China against their Muslim militants

If that were so, they'd be bombing the Russians, Indians and Chinese.

5) US pressure on Arab energy producers to keep oil prices low

Actually the US is working to keep prices stable to high rather than low. The US, for example, didn't take Iraq out of OPEC, nor has the US done much of anything to pressure OPEC to reduce prices. This may be all moot soon, as oil production is close to capacity, and may soon be at full production levels.

6) US support for apostate, corrupt and tyrannical Muslim governments

Which would those be? They're obviously not opposed to tyranny--see the taliban. The saudis are certainly not apostate. I guess Egypt is, and the US has supported Egypt's oppression of the Muslim brotherhood. But I really believe all these issues are just cover.

5500. Gebhard - 3/24/2005 10:53:54 PM

I think even Bandar Bush would have to admit that all non-Muslims are infidels. But, don't those martinis taste great.

5501. jexster - 3/30/2005 11:15:56 AM

Maybe Bush should send Condimima to Cairo to lead a chorus of "We Shall Overcome"

Police again thwart Egyptian anti-Mubarak protestors

Bull Connor where art thou?

5502. alistairconnor - 3/31/2005 3:26:01 AM

wtf?

Egypt is not a candidate for a sudden outbreak of democracy. Lebanon it is not. A tiny minority of libral democrats would be overwhelmed by the Muslim Brotherhood majority in any free election.

Bush is no more in favour of democracy in Egypt than Mubarak is. For the record, he's for it -- just like he's against building in the West Bank settlements -- everyone knows it's of no consequence.

Even the Brothers themselves are not too fussed about democracy -- their historic compromise with Mubarak gives them a free hand to control Egyptian society outside the cities.

5503. wonkers2 - 4/2/2005 9:09:36 AM

Justice Ginzburg on the value of international law Here.

5504. concerned - 4/7/2005 2:10:57 PM

Sistani's 'insistence' or lack thereof was irrelevant to the timing of the elections.

His insistence made the elections happen. The US had no plans for elections for at least two years.

Untrue. Afghanistan had its first Loya Jirga (their version of the democratic process) far sooner than two years after the Taliban was driven out of the country. There is not the least factual basis supporting the idea that the US had ever seriously entertained a policy requiring a three or more year hiatus after Saddam was driven from power to hold general elections. The very idea is ludicrous.

5505. jexster - 4/7/2005 7:33:13 PM

Sistani's 'insistence' or lack thereof was irrelevant to the timing of the elections.

His insistence, the threat of a fatwa and 500,000 in the streets, not only was relevant to the TIMING of the election but directly brought those elections about. They would never have happened.

5506. jexster - 4/7/2005 7:41:28 PM

June 2003: The original U.S. plan following the invasion was to ensure that we got the Iraq we wanted, and so elections would be held only after a new national constitution had been written by a handpicked, exile-led group. Indeed, our colonial provisional administration was so afraid of the people's will that we cancelled ad-hoc local elections all across Iraq in June of 2003. (Subsequent protests in Najaf, the home city of the Shiite religious establishment led by Grand Ayatollah Sistani, included banners that read, "Canceled elections are evidence of bad intentions.")

Perhaps not coincidentally, within days Grand Ayatollah Sistani issued a fatwa calling for national elections as the only acceptable way to choose the assembly that would draft a constitution, specifically rejecting the U.S. plans to appoint a committee.

Fall 2003: As richly documented in this space, the American administration tried in vain to ignore or sidestep Sistani's decree for several months, until it became clear that the Iraqi would-be puppets on the so-called Governing Council were refusing to go along with the scam.

The U.S. solution, of course, was to come up with a new scam -- a complicated series of steps with "caucuses" (indirect elections, with participants vetted by the Americans) to choose an interim governmen that would be given nominal sovereignty, with Iraqis not allowed to vote directly for their own leaders until the end of 2005. Sistani's response was to say, in essence, "What part of 'elections' don't you understand?", demanding full national elections by June 2004.

January 2004: As the Bushites continued to dither and balk (including quashing a census plan that would have enabled faster elections), Sistani was forced to organize massive demonstrations in Basra and Baghdad (shown in the picture above) to make his growing impatience clear.

Seeing hundreds of thousands of Shiites in the streets of Baghdad, the denizens of Dubyaville promptly crapped their pants. Although still whining about infeasibility of elections, Bush and his appointed colonial ruler Jerry Bremer invited the UN to design a new transition, just as Sistani had demanded.

February-May 2004: The Bushites then did their best work behind the scenes, pressuring Kofi Annan to yield to an election date after the U.S. voting in November, pushing through a "transitional administrative law" intended to influence the eventual constitution, and promoting Iyad Allawi as temp prime minister over the UN's choice, Hussein Shahristani (an adviser to Sistani).

5507. jexster - 4/7/2005 7:44:54 PM

The above chronology here

The Bush administration strove to avoid having one-person, one-vote elections in Iraq, which were finally forced on Washington by Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani. Despite the U.S. backing for secularists, the winners of the election were the fundamentalist Shiite Dawa Party and the Supreme Council for Islamic Revolution in Iraq. Nor were the elections themselves all that exemplary. The country is in flames, racked by a guerrilla war, a continual crime wave and a foreign military occupation. The security situation was so bad that the candidates running for office could not reveal their identities until the day before the election, and the entire country was put under a sort of curfew for three days, with all vehicular traffic forbidden Cole

5508. wonkers2 - 4/8/2005 6:17:20 AM

Academic freedom under attack at Columbia University over Israel-Palestine issues. Here.

5509. concerned - 4/8/2005 8:23:17 AM

According to jexster, Saddam and Sistani are good guys and all the US is doing is creating a disaster in Iraq. No wonder the Left is increasingly being regarded as having totally lost it, sort of like the insane aunt in the attic.

5510. concerned - 4/8/2005 8:25:45 AM

Only a LW crackpot would insist that a marginal religious zealot like Sistani advanced the schedule for elections in Iraq.

5511. Wombat - 4/8/2005 8:59:47 AM

Hopefully, in his "analysis," Concerned is getting Sistani mixed up with Sadr. If not, his ignorance is truly breathtaking. Sistani is hardly a marginal religious zealot. Compared to Sistani, Sadr is both.

5512. PelleNilsson - 4/8/2005 9:05:13 AM

jexster's account of the sequence of events is substantially correct. To call Sistani a "marginal religious zealot" is to demonstrate a fundamental ignorance of the situation in Iraq.

5513. concerned - 4/8/2005 1:12:17 PM

jexster may be correct wrt the politically's marginal Sistani's histrionics, but that merely underscores his marginality.

Anyone who takes Sistani's electoral agigation & posturing a mere few months after Saddam was deposed as having any influence on the current Coalition policy, as jexster insists, are ignorant, credulous fools indeed.

5514. concerned - 4/8/2005 1:13:16 PM

PN seems quite comfortable with religious zealots, as long as they're not Christian.

5515. concerned - 4/8/2005 1:13:17 PM

PN seems quite comfortable with religious zealots, as long as they're not Christian.

5516. concerned - 4/8/2005 1:16:14 PM

Let me put it another way. If Sistani had not existed, Coalition policy and its electoral timetable would have hardly been affected.

The truth is, those who insist otherwise are really only revealing their anti-administration bias.

5517. Wombat - 4/8/2005 2:13:32 PM

The only insisting Pelle and I are doing is that you are in far over your head when attempting to comment on the role that Sistani plays among the Shia in Iraq.

A relatively peacable and politically involved Shia majority is due in large part to Sistani's efforts. If you continue to think that this is "marginal," then you only continue to demonstrate what an ignoramus you are.

5518. concerned - 4/8/2005 3:08:30 PM

Since you aren't comprehending what I'm posting, please refrain from commenting on it. Sistani is marginal to the Coalition efforts and is eminently replaceable. Your simplistic elevation of Sistani to a saintlike political status simply because he's not among the more rabid of the Islamic fundamentalists shows just what a naive chump you are, Wombats.

5519. concerned - 4/8/2005 3:13:18 PM

You and Pelle's politial thought processes are like a rain puddle - shallow and transparent.

This is obvious from the mere fact that the force of ongoing fact has caused you to veer wildly from your original opinions and projections of the results of GWB's mideast policy. IOW, you just don't know WTF you're talking about and in your online logorrhea can't stop parading your ignorance.

5520. jexster - 4/9/2005 9:51:06 AM

Supporters of radical Shiite Muslim cleric Moqtada Sadr burn the American while holding up a poster of assassinated Grand Ayatollah Mohammed Sadeq al-Sadr. Shiite cleric Moqtada Sadr demanded US troops leave Iraq and called on God to cut off their necks in a fiery speech to tens of thousands in Baghdad on the two-year anniversary of the city's fall to the Americans

5521. jexster - 4/9/2005 8:59:59 PM

Yes indeed those Greens aren't very convincing!

France could throw EU into crisis
French voters are in the mood to sink the EU constitution

The Greens have been persuaded by the mainstream Socialists to support the constitution. But when they launched their campaign, they were unconvincing, stating that they were pressing for a 'not entirely enthusiastic "yes", but not a resigned "yes" either'

5522. alistairConnor - 4/10/2005 4:13:46 AM

Yeah the article is a fair summary.

Except where it says that the Greens have been persuaded by the mainstream Socialists to support the constitution. The actual motivations are different... this requires considerable development... to follow.

5523. wonkers2 - 4/14/2005 11:11:09 AM

Alistaire and Pelle, this one has a definite international flavor! Message # 4712 in thread 138

5524. jexster - 4/14/2005 6:06:18 PM

Aux Armes Citoyens!

PARIS (Reuters) - President Jacques Chirac began his campaign to save the European Union constitution on Thursday by warning voters that France could "cease to exist politically" in the EU if they reject it in a referendum.

Chirac mixed warnings of dire consequences and gentle lecturing on the content of the constitution in a live televised debate with 83 young people, in which he began a mission to turn back a rising tide of opposition before the vote on May 29.

He said the treaty could not be renegotiated if voters reject it but that he would not resign over the treaty on which he has staked his personal prestige.

"If by chance France did not vote in favor, France would at least for a certain time cease to exist politically at the heart of this Europe," the president said in his concluding comments after a more than two-hour debate at his Elysee palace.

Formez Les Battalions Verts
Marchon AC Marchon

No time for the timid temporizer

La Republique herself is at stake.

5525. jexster - 4/14/2005 6:16:21 PM

This requires considerable development

Considerable development???

Has the injunction "Keep It Simple Stupid" ever been given in Green Party meetings???

How many seats you guys winnin whilst you play French intellectual games?

Greenies appear to be always and everywhere the same.

Weenies in any language

5526. alistairconnor - 4/15/2005 3:22:08 AM

How many seats? Three currently.

Oh and um four senators, currently (out of 600 or so)

Yup, the Greens refuse to simplify the inherently complex...

The "non" of the left is not an anti-European "non"... it's actually a "oui" to a different Europe.

Which probably exists on some other planet, or in a parallel universe.

We had to destroy Europe in order to save it

5527. Macnas - 4/15/2005 4:10:36 AM

That's been tried a couple of times before...

5528. PelleNilsson - 4/15/2005 4:26:48 AM

Ha! The Greens here tell us that it will be simple to (a) dismantle nuclear power (currently 50% of electricty generation), (b) not build any more hydropower, (c) adhere to Kyoto by reducing the burning of fossile fuels. All that is needed is wind, the sun, a "change in lifestyle" and breaking the power of the "vested interests". I get so tired every time I see an apple-cheeked young enthusiast in windbrekaer and backback explain how easy it will be. But the worst thing is that because the Greens can tip the balance in parliament this impossible equation has become official policy. All that has been achieved so far, though, is to increase the import of electricity from coal-fired power stations in Denmark and Poland.

Regarding the constitution I tend to agree that a 'non' would not necessarily be a bad thing. After the extension the EU has changed much more than foreseen. It may be necessary to rethink the whole project.

5529. alistairconnor - 4/15/2005 5:15:16 AM

Well you can't agree with me on that, because I think a 'non' would be a disaster. Will be.

There are plenty of good reasons for voting No; but they are outnumbered by the bad reasons for voting No.

Le Pen, and all of the other xenophobe right wing, are keeping very quiet indeed. But there's no doubt at all that we'll be hearing from them soon if they win the referendum, with the help of the useful idiots of the left.

5530. alistairconnor - 4/15/2005 5:21:12 AM

After the extension the EU has changed much more than foreseen.

That's just the sort of lame hindsight I despise. It was obvious that the extension would change the EU fundamentally. Nobody was against it; now it's time to live with the consequences.

And OK, we can say no to the constitutional treaty : but we'll have to live with the consequences of that too. It means (short of a sudden, miraculous consensus) the unworkable status quo : the Treaty of Nice.

Sorry : the EU does not need a constitutional crisis. It needs a constitution. Even a poor one.

5531. jayackroyd - 4/15/2005 5:26:32 AM

So where are you now on these questions? Each source has serious downsides. (Although I may be wrong about solar. I suspect there are some serious waste disposal problems, but I'm not sure.)

Here, the Sierra Club is pushing the adoption of current technology to raise automobile mileage as the lowest hanging fruit. In short, the gains to conservation may be the method that best carries us to a hydrogen economy--but doesn't that have to fueled by nukes?

5532. PelleNilsson - 4/15/2005 5:27:52 AM

On reflection: a disaster for France, yes, not necessarily for Europe. If the constitution is to be wrecked, which seems likely, it had better be done by some other country. Denmark? UK?

How did Chirac do yesterday in your opinion?

5533. jayackroyd - 4/15/2005 5:28:03 AM

that was to pelle's snarky green comment (one I happen to agree with).

5534. jayackroyd - 4/15/2005 5:28:58 AM

Yup, the Greens refuse to simplify the inherently complex...

So what's your policy proposal? The longer you wait, the harder it gets.

5535. alistairconnor - 4/15/2005 5:41:06 AM

Our position on the constitution is to vote Yes : not because it's a good constitution, but because it's better than current arrangements, and because it devolves more power to the EU parliament.

Fundamentally, we are regionalists : our dearest wish is to see the withering away of the nation-state, so that Europe may be a federation of its regions.

5536. alistairconnor - 4/15/2005 5:45:21 AM

I heard Jeremy Rifkin on the radio, he's written a book called the European dream

He says if he woke up and found that the US had the equivalent of the EU constitution, he'd think he'd died and gone to heaven.

His 93 year old mother, after reading his book, said there must be a mistake : there are rights in that constition I've never even heard of.

5537. alistairconnor - 4/15/2005 5:47:55 AM

In short, the gains to conservation may be the method that best carries us to a hydrogen economy--but doesn't that have to fueled by nukes?

No, you can get your hydrogen from wind turbines. It's a good match.

5538. jayackroyd - 4/15/2005 5:55:08 AM

All of it? We can't get wind turbines built here because most of the good places are places of scenic beauty, and residents (and some greens) object. Do you mean way out to sea on big platforms?

5539. alistairconnor - 4/15/2005 5:57:09 AM

If the constitution is to be wrecked, which seems likely, it had better be done by some other country. Denmark? UK?

The UK is the obvious one.

The funny thing is, they are likely to vote No for exactly the opposite reasons to France :

The French left-wing No (which is currently making the running) wants less economic liberalism, more social security (they want everyone in Europe to have the same entitlements we have in France), more power to the EU parliament.

The UK No wants the exact opposite.

Illustrates why it was so hard to draft a constitution in the first place.

The whole thing looks hopeless, if France says No (I actually think that would increase the chances of a UK no, paradoxically)

I think a narrow Yes in France would reassure everyone else.

5540. alistairconnor - 4/15/2005 5:58:51 AM

We can't get wind turbines built here because most of the good places are places of scenic beauty

Learn to love them. They are not intrinsically uglier than an 18th century windmill.

When the energy crunch really hits, they will look pretty.

5541. Macnas - 4/15/2005 6:25:27 AM

We have plenty windfarms out on the west coast. Places of natural beauty?, well maybe, but there is no denying the usefulness of the turbines.

The English vote is probably the most uninformed in the EU, I don't have any hope for aceptance of the present form of the EU constitution, even though it tries hard...

5542. jayackroyd - 4/15/2005 6:38:16 AM

Learn to love them. They are not intrinsically uglier than an 18th century windmill.

Right. Tell that to Walter Cronkite. I should have made clear that the people who live in areas of scenic beauty tend to people rich enough that they can prevent things like wind power installations. And there are a number of greens opposed as well.

5543. jayackroyd - 4/15/2005 6:46:16 AM

And you're making Pelle's point for him. If greens keep doing things like saying dismissively, "I'm right. Get over it.", then we're gonna end up with coal and nukes.

5544. alistairConnor - 4/15/2005 9:15:21 AM

And there are a number of greens opposed as well.

NIMBY is sometimes the right response. I have a close friend who fought against a wind installation near her holiday place in the Auvergne mountains... I didn't want to hear about it, but when I looked at the particulars of the case, she was dead right. There were better sites a few miles away, etc...

I'm not automatically in favour of any wind generation, anywhere; but I'm just saying that the equation is changing fast, driven by economics.

But when you say "greens", are they really greens, or are they people claiming to defend the environment, and actually defending their own interests and comfort?

I do not know of a principled Green argument against wind power.

5545. jayackroyd - 4/15/2005 9:17:35 AM

I do not know of a principled Green argument against wind power

They're like the green who oppose hydropower because it sullies the environment. Windmills, they say, are ugly and noisy and disruptive to animal life. I'm a little too busy right now to find a quote, but I've read them wrt installation s on wilderness ridges.

5546. alistairConnor - 4/15/2005 9:21:03 AM

Right, location is everything.

I'm in favour of a very distributed network, rather than trying to saturate the highest-yield sites. What you lose in generation you may well make up for in transmission.

5547. jayackroyd - 4/15/2005 9:22:21 AM

So it wasn't so hard: Greens against wind

This harks back to Pelle's original point--that there is no coherent green strategy. Or my long time saying "It's not easy being green." Any energy production strategy is going to generate negative externalities. If greens were serious, they'd sit down and face the postives and negatives and construct a reasonably coherent menu of choices depending on the setting. But they don't. They think globally, act locally--which means wind for you, solar for Joe, and hydro for Frank.

5548. jayackroyd - 4/15/2005 9:25:48 AM

Sorry. That link requires registration:

Workers will start building 47 giant windmills this fall along a five-mile stretch of the wooded Moosic Mountain Ridge, a project that will make Pennsylvania the leading producer of wind-based electricity east of the Mississippi.

That is, unless some local environmentalists put a stop to it first.

The irony of environmental opposition to earth-friendly energy is not lost on these opponents, who acknowledge that wind power is about as "green" as it gets: It doesn't pollute the air, and it doesn't depend on a fuel that could become scarce. The 47 turbines would produce 63 megawatts, enough power for 19,000 homes, as long as the wind blows.

Yet the concerns are similar to those voiced by opponents of wind "farms" elsewhere, including ones in Northern California and Washington and one planned off Cape Cod: That although a wind farm is clean, it is big - sometimes placed in unspoiled natural areas and sometimes killing birds with the giant blades.

"It's a recipe for taking large areas of green space and slicing them in half," said Kenneth Mayers, treasurer of the local chapter of R.E.S.C.U.E., an environmental group challenging the state's issuance of a permit for the wind farm.

Area Sierra Club members also have urged caution, stressing that they support wind power but want to make sure the turbines are put in the right place.

Other environmentalists question whether the local objections are less about being green and more about crying: "Not in my backyard."

Yes, the NIMBY question arises. But there's no question that the people raising it in this article are greens. The Sierra Club is for wind, but only in the "right places." Sheesh.

5549. alistairConnor - 4/15/2005 9:50:43 AM

OK, I'm with them in this particular case.

That article illustrates the points I've made, nothing more.

As I said, I've been there. My friend's holiday place is actually her grandparents' summer hut, they were shepherds, it's mountain pasture. Ecologically sensitive, and UNESCO registered site. The wind machines would have required building a road, and power lines etc. highly disruptive.

There were much better sites available, but there were profits for the landowners.

This sort of thing is a trap for environmentalists, there is no way they can avoid getting a bad press. "oh, even the Greens are against it".

To illustrate the problem :
- are you in favour of nuclear power?
- are you in favour of building a 1000 MW nuclear power station on Manhattan?

5550. jayackroyd - 4/15/2005 10:04:20 AM

But the Greens ARE against it. That's the whole point. I can just as well say that the guy who says the greens who protest it being near them are being NIMBY is himself being NIMBY. As I said at the outset, there are problems with all energy delivery systems. The problems with wind power are unreliability and NIMBY. The problem with nukes is waste disposal and Homer Simpson at the controls. The problem with fossil fuels is global warming and air quality (and more). The problem with hydro is habitat destruction and killing off of fish species. The problem with solar is disposing of the products used to make the cells. You've got to face those issues to have a serious discussion. To dismiss NIMBY as not a real problem is to duck the issue.

On your specific question, I have mixed feelings about nuclear power. I don't like it, but I get very irritated when people want to implicitly replace it with guys ripping the tops off of mountains and getting black lung disease. IAC it would be idiotic to put a plant on an island that can't even get people in and out of the city to go to work every day. Which is what has happened here. Fine, shut down the plant. But recognize you're extending the life of coal fired plants elsewhere that are affecting you more than the nuke would, and really affecting the people who supply the coal.

5551. jayackroyd - 4/15/2005 10:05:51 AM

This sort of thing is a trap for environmentalists, there is no way they can avoid getting a bad press. "oh, even the Greens are against it".

Exactly. Because it's true. Greens are against it if they have to live with it.

5552. alistairConnor - 4/15/2005 10:12:30 AM

But the Greens ARE against it. That's the whole point.

You can keep saying it, but you haven't illustrated it. What you have is some local environmentalists (small-G greens, if you insist : we have no idea of their party affiliation) opposing a specific project, with good reason on the face of it. There are good reasons for not building a nuclear power station on Manhattan, but it's possible, and rational, to oppose it without being against nuclear power.

As for the drawback of wind being unreliable : if you recall, we are talking about the hydrogen economy. You'll find that wind generation averages out pretty evenly over medium to long periods. If you're making hydrogen, you haven't got a peak-load problem.

5553. PelleNilsson - 4/15/2005 10:17:49 AM

Jay's link illustrates another problem. It says that those 47 "giant windmills" will privide enough power for 19,000 homes. That converts to 400 homes per windmill. Scale that up to the total number of homes in the US (or in France or in Sweden) and think about it. And private homes are not the largest consumers of electricity. Industry is, at least here.

5554. alistairConnor - 4/15/2005 10:23:37 AM

Your assertion Greens are against it if they have to live with it is bullshit.

I'm surprised to see you so naive on this.

It's obvious that the building of wind generators poses a classic land-use conflict. These have always existed, and always will. There is nothing different about this one. People who come to live in the country don't want a big pig farm setting up next door. They will say it's for the environment, but the reality is that it's because of the smell (real example, from around here a couple of years ago. I made enemies at a public meeting because I said that I didn't think it was right to prevent the farmer earning a living.)

Think about it : as a result of the normal human NIMBY reaction, people will oppose the installation of a wind generator near them, regardless of any valid environmental objection. However, if they want good publicity, they will claim to be objecting for "environmental" reasons. Result : headlines say "Greens oppose wind power". But who are these people? Are they active on other environmental issues? That would separate the sheep from the goats.

It's a case by case thing, involving judging each project on its merits.

5555. alistairConnor - 4/15/2005 10:26:27 AM

Scale that up to the total number of homes in the US (or in France or in Sweden) and think about it.

Yes, energy is expensive in the real world, Pelle. Is this news to you?

The free lunch is nearly over. Fossil fuels were too good to last. It seems unlikely to me that current per-capita energy consumption levels will be sustainable, say fifty years from now.

Nuclear isn't cheap either, actually. So what's your proposal?

5556. PelleNilsson - 4/15/2005 10:36:28 AM

It is not a question of cheap or expensive. It is a question of practicability, of the validity of wind power as a viable alternative energy source. What is your proposal for the long-term provision of energy to major cities?

5557. alistairConnor - 4/15/2005 10:46:39 AM

Wind power is eminently suited to the hydrogen economy, as I'm sure you'll agree. It is also a valid base-load option in certain countries which have major hydro resources, as in New Zealand (and, presumably, Sweden), because they can be managed in a complementary relationship.

But you're right, the question is tough. Consuming a whole lot less power, in order to live with sustainable generating resources, is the long term answer, and you know it.

5558. PelleNilsson - 4/15/2005 11:56:04 AM

No, I don't know that and I don't believe in it in a global perspective. The two goals of raising the living standard of the world's poor to an acceptabl level and reducing global power consumption are mutually incompatible, another fact that the Greens prefer to deny or bypass with glib phrases. There is a very simple rrelationship between power consumption and living standard. Sure, there is overconsumption in the developed countries but it doesn't match the undersonsumption in the thirld world.

You asked for my proposal. My dream is the hydrogen-based society with decentralised power generation replacing the long-distance transmission networks and their inherent energy losses with local networks for redundancy purposes only. But for the time being I think the least bad option is more nuclear power, at least in the countries that already have it. We already have the sites and we already have the waste problem; we have X tons of waste to be disposed of. There is no qualitative difference if that becomes 2X or 3X tons or whatever.

5559. jexster - 4/15/2005 12:24:09 PM

Altamont Pass Wind Farm near SFCA

The Ultimate Power Trip - Explore the Palm Springs Wind Farm

Before Bush follows the French example and starts building Nukes again...

But what about Iran???

5560. jexster - 4/15/2005 12:27:03 PM

You can't just build em anywhere

1. They're isores
2. They make a hella lot of noise
3. You gotta have some pretty steady, pretty strong prevailing winds

5561. jexster - 4/15/2005 1:08:53 PM

iso - topes

eye - sores

5562. alistairConnor - 4/15/2005 3:47:21 PM

The two goals of raising the living standard of the world's poor to an acceptabl level and reducing global power consumption are mutually incompatible

Well, if one BMW per family (or equivalent) is your measure of an acceptable level, then I guess you're right.

But, as you and I both know that it's physically impossible (go on, tell me you don't know that), perhaps we should start looking at realistic solutions.

There is a very simple rrelationship between power consumption and living standard.

Yes, it's so simple that Americans are twice as rich, and live twice as long, as Europeans.

After all, they consume twice as much energy per capita.

5563. alistairConnor - 4/15/2005 3:52:51 PM

Eyesore is in the eye of the beholder.

(Eyesore Esau sitting on a see-saw.)

A good modern design is not noisy.

How much wind you need to make them economic, is a function of the price of energy.

5564. PelleNilsson - 4/16/2005 1:39:02 AM

Well, if one BMW per family (or equivalent) is your measure of an acceptable level, then I guess you're right.

I'm disappointed, Alistair. I thought we had a serious discussion going.

5565. alistairConnor - 4/16/2005 4:07:38 AM

So you're wimping out of it?

Fair enough.

I was hoping you'd explain how failing to reduce power consumption in Europe and the US is going to help Indians and Africans attain a decent standard of living.

5566. alistairConnor - 4/16/2005 4:24:32 AM

The current oil crunch : demand meeting capacity : has, as its proximate cause, Chinese economic expansion and concomitant increased energy consumption.

It's likely, with the critical mass of the Chinese economy, and the head of steam they have built up, that they can absorb the increased energy costs, like the US and Europe. However, it also seems likely, to me, that others who wish to follow the Chinese model will have been priced out of the market.

$100 a barrel : is a high-energy economic growth strategy possible, for India, for example? I doubt it.

It seems to me Pelle, your "realistic" vision falls at the first hurdle. Malthus trumps Keynes.

5567. alistairConnor - 4/16/2005 4:35:16 AM

The most likely path for China, it seems to me (I'm puzzled they haven't really started yet) is to go nuclear, on a huge scale.

I'm guessing that once they have sufficiently mastered the technology, and are completely autonomous with it, they'll roll it out pretty quickly. Population density must make it pretty tricky to find suitable sites, but they have no qualms about shifting people for big projects. And I don't imagine they'll be doing much soul-searching about the waste : they'll just create a huge dump in Sinkiang or Tibet or Mongolia.

I can't see that being a viable strategy for anyone else. Brazil, possibly. India, I guess not, because of democracy.

5568. jayackroyd - 4/16/2005 6:33:19 AM

I watched Hotel Rwanda last night. And I was struck again by something that has struck me before. In the third world, there is a shortage of clean water, intermittent food shortages, absence of consumer goods and the means to buy them--but an apparently unlimited quantity of weapons and ammunition.

5569. PelleNilsson - 4/16/2005 11:12:28 AM

No, Alistair, I have not "wimped out" as you so gracefully put it, but I expect arguments to be countered by arguments, not by content-free oneliners like the one I quoted above.

I was hoping you'd explain how failing to reduce power consumption in Europe and the US is going to help Indians and Africans attain a decent standard of living. I was hoping you'd explain how failing to reduce power consumption in Europe and the US is going to help Indians and Africans attain a decent standard of living.

That is not at all my position. I have already said (Message # 5558) that there is over-consumption of energy in the developed world . It is certainly worse in the US than in western Europe and, I suspect, worse in south Europe than in the north because, historically, the south has had less incentives to develop building codes emphasizing energy efficiency.

Now to my dreamworld of raising the living standard for the world's poor. There are three stages. First they would be given access to some of the basic amenities of the modern world. That would include lighting, probably of the basic "el foco nudo" variety but it would still be enough for the children to do their homework and generally enjoy the world of reading. Refrigeration would make it possible to store fresh food for much longer periods. An electrical stove would eliminate the need for the women to go on long treks to collect firewood, depleting the bush vegetation that prevents soil erosion and/or cow dung that could be better used as fertilizer. Finally ready access to clean water would eliminate another trek to the communal well where the water is easily contaminated. As we now, contaminated water is the single most important reason for the high infant mortality in the third world.

The second stage involves a modest increase in farming productivity by substituting energy for human labour so that the farmer can send the children, in particular the girls, to school instead of employing them in the fields.

The third stage would be the general goal of raising the standard of living for the poor in the third world to the level we in the west enjoyed 70-80 years ago. It shouldn't stop there of course but that is where I stop for now.

What I have said above applies, mutatis mutandis, to the city slum dwellers as well.

All this requires energy and considering the numbers involved I seriously doubt, even if we in the west trim down our over-consumption , that the two goals of improving the lot of the poor in the third world and reducing global energy consumption are mutually compatible. I haven't heard the Greens address this issue except in general and glib terms usually involving "change of life-style". What exactly does that mean? A return to the days of the horse and carriage? Doing away with central heating systems in favour of wood stoves?

5570. alistairConnor - 4/16/2005 1:02:55 PM

Yes, I agree with your vision, but I haven't heard you postulate a viable energy source to bring it about. It is a terrible shame that it didn't happen, for a large section of humanity, during the era of cheap fossil fuel.

As this era is now over (have you assimilated that yet, I wonder?), then it's not very productive to criticise low-energy development strategies as unrealistic... because the high-energy path is now completely out of the question.

The problem of the greens, as usual, is to have been right too early. It was indeed rather futile to advocate low-energy, renewable, sustainable paths to development, when oil was so cheap.

5571. PelleNilsson - 4/16/2005 2:17:18 PM

Yes, I do understand that era of cheap fossil fuel is over. On the other hand I also understand that about a third of the current oil price is an effect of the fall in value of the dollar.

But I don't understand the concept of low-energy development strategies. Development is a question of increasing productivity by replacing human and animal power by other power sources. What is a low-energy tractor? I understand fuel efficiency and energy efficiency in general but low-energy development baffles me. Please explain.

No, I haven't propsed a viable alternative energy source. I agree that this is a crux of the mater and I hope to return to it tomorrow.

5572. alistairConnor - 4/16/2005 4:12:08 PM

With respect to your three-stage ideal plan :

OK for the first step.

There is a problem with the second step. Actually two problems.
The second stage involves a modest increase in farming productivity by substituting energy for human labour so that the farmer can send the children, in particular the girls, to school instead of employing them in the fields.

One problem is the energy for that automation (I'm eager to hear your development on that.) The other problem is the capital to buy the tractor.

You've experienced that first-hand, as your story illustrates... If the starting point is 100 poor subsistence farmers (and their families) with one acre each, what is the outcome after mechanisation? At best, 10 tractor-owning commodity farmers, 10 farm labourers, and 80 underemployed urban slum dweller families.

This may be the desired outcome, depending on what your objectives are in the first place. If optimal food production is the question, then this is the classic answer. If human development is the aim, then I think the method is not a good one.

The condition of the poor subsistence farmer is such that he not only has no capital, he typically has no cash at all to pay for intrants of any sort : seed, fertiliser, etc. There are always of helping him improve his productivity, though they may not be easy to find (Jay may wish to contribute here, he has first hand experience in this).
A change or diversification of crops, techniques which increase the accumulation of humus, co-planting with helper plants which drive away pests... I'm not a specialist, but there are a lot of (literally) grass-roots initiatives which really work, but get little funding or publicity, for various reasons. The primary one, probably, being that there's nothing in it for anyone but the farmer : no profits to be made by selling him anything.

5573. PelleNilsson - 4/17/2005 11:28:37 AM

I am no fanatic about mechanization. If there are other ways to achieve increased productivity and capital accumulation in the agricultural sector I am all for it. But to think that economic development can take place without causing a change in existing structures is, in my view, naive and yet another example of mutually incompatible goals.

Which lead us back to my original post (Message # 5528) where I said

The Greens here tell us that it will be simple to (a) dismantle nuclear power (currently 50% of electricty generation), (b) not build any more hydropower, (c) adhere to Kyoto by reducing the burning of fossile fuels. All that is needed is wind, the sun, a "change in lifestyle" and breaking the power of the "vested interests".

I haven't seen you try to respond to that challenge.

And I'm still interested to know what "low-energy development strategies" means in down-to-earth concrete terms.

5574. PelleNilsson - 4/17/2005 11:45:38 AM

The most likely path for China, it seems to me (I'm puzzled they haven't really started yet) is to go nuclear, on a huge scale.

But they have!

Source1

Source2

5575. PelleNilsson - 4/17/2005 11:56:03 AM

The advantage of fossile fuels is that they can be moved around. Except for coal they have a high energy density wich means that they can be profitable transported over vast distances.

Now consider the case of Sweden. We don't use a single drop of oil for power generation. Assume that we can save 10% of our electricity consumption through better management on all levels. How would that help the thirld world? We cannot move our waterfalls or our nuclear plants to Tanzania or Mali, nor can we get our electricity from here to there.

5576. PelleNilsson - 4/17/2005 11:57:42 AM

Oh dear. I fear I'm getting iiibbbish. But I'm very interested in the subject and I'm glad to get a chance to discuss it.

5577. jayackroyd - 4/17/2005 12:20:42 PM

The difficult answer to this is that mechanization is not always appropriate. In the US, with cheap capital, expensive labor and wide flat land area, tractors are perfect. Some crops, like wet padi rice resists mechanization. Other settings make it difficult. On the project in the Sudan that I worked on, tractors were decidedly not helpful. There was more return to capital in the household sector, reducing food prep time with simple machines.

Adding energy in the form of fertilizer, ala the Green Revolution, works everywhere, but has high externalities that grow over time in the form of run off and topsoil loss.

The case can be made for organic techniques, with intercropping, planting multiple varieties and integration with animal husbandry as a fertilizer source. There's an essay in the NYTimes Magazine by a guy named Michael Pollan comparing different potato cultivation strategies. You can find a lengthier version in Botany of Desire. He finds that the organic farmer is just as productive as the GM or the pesticide using farmer, but that he knows a whole lot more than either of the others do. Knowledge has been transferred from the farmer to Monsanto lab. (It gets more complicated still, of course. The potato monoculture of the mainstream potato farmer is very much driven by the need (literally) to provide MacDonalds with the russets they make their fries out of.)

There was an interesting article in the most recent Harpers about the effect of being flat broke after the Soviet collapse on Cuban agriculture. It has followed an organic path and found, painfully, that yields can be as high, although returns to labor are lower than in the tractor years. However, the techniques they're developing are sustainable indefinitely.

5578. jayackroyd - 4/17/2005 12:24:53 PM

He finds that the organic farmer is just as productive as the GM or the pesticide using farmer, but that he knows a whole lot more than either of the others do.

This wasn't clear. He (among other things) visits three Idaho potato farmers; his example isn't idealized. The three farmers I mentioned are actual farmers.

5579. alistairConnor - 4/17/2005 2:46:22 PM

Message # 5574 Your source actually confirms my point :
EIA projects that by 2020, China's nuclear electricity consumption8 (reference case scenario) will climb to 142 billion Kwhr, passing that of Canada (118 billion Kwhr) and Russia (129 billion Kwhr)9. If EIA projections turn out to be accurate, however, the rapid growth of China's nuclear industry will do little to offset the anticipated phenomenal growth in electricity demand or carbon emissions.

To put it another way : currently there is roughly 8000 megawatts of installed nuclear generating capacity in China. That's about a tenth of the installed capacity in France. To reach the same level of nuclear electrical production per capita as France, they would need to build a thousand times more reactors as they currently have. They don't seem to be in any hurry to do that -- which I find surprising.

5580. alistairConnor - 4/17/2005 3:12:15 PM

But to think that economic development can take place without causing a change in existing structures is, in my view, naive and yet another example of mutually incompatible goals.

And who is it who thinks that? must be the strawman sitting in the corner.

Economic development will certainly change existing structures. That's the whole point of it (if there's some other point, it's about time I knew about it). But in my view, it's preferable if those changes are for the better.

The scenario where modernisation displaces 80 out of 100 rural families, sounds rather like "we had to destroy the village in order to save it".

5581. jayackroyd - 4/17/2005 8:52:46 PM

5580

To my knowledge, displacement of rural communities is entirely voluntary. Many people want more opportunity than is available in their rural locale, and leave if such opportunities arise. It's happening in the US right now, as family farms are abandoned and towns become deserted. The problem the poor countries face is not that "we" forced them to modernize; it's that they came to the city, willy-nilly. (Who is this "we" anyway?

I know you don't mean to fall into the trap that says that "we" can control development. But that's how that post reads.

The real problem is the one that China is facing--that as people get richer, they'll want more stuff, especially cars. The environmental impact of their getting more stuff could be quite severe. The good news is that the Chinese government has the longest time horizon of any in the world. If anyone can figure out what to do, they can.

5582. alistairconnor - 4/18/2005 1:57:45 AM

Who is this "we"?

Jay, insofar as we are talking about development strategies, it's not necessarily meaningful to talk about individual choices. These are generally dictated by economic circumstances, which any development strategy is necessarily trying to shape to some extent.

Your example of the end of the family farm in the US is an interesting one, and doesn't reinforce your thesis of personal choice, as far as I can see. As I understand it, the abandonment of small farms is driven, or accompanied, by bankruptcies in a lot of cases. This indicates that the real problem is not one of personal opportunities, but of scale, tied to ever more capital-intensive methods, and the decline of returns per unit produced.

I guess the sociology of development is highly variable from place to place around the world : often, small farmers are physically forced out by those with access to capital, who need to increase their land holdings. In other places, the introduction of capital-intensive commodity farming forces down the price of the produce, and those semi-subsistence farmers who have a foothold in the cash economy through the sale of their surplus, are ruined.

Did Pelle's stepfather actually choose to sell up and move to the city because of better opportunities and rising expectations? In order for the choice to exist, it would be necessary that he could have continued to make a humble living in the old way. I don't know whether this was true or not.

Where I live, farmers in their 30s and 40s are, for the most part, heavily indebted, and there is considerable attrition, a bad year leads to guys selling up and looking for unqualified work -- in a factory, or driving a truck, if they can get it. They do it with a heavy heart, they continue as long as they can, because farming is what they want to do.

5583. jayackroyd - 4/18/2005 2:19:18 AM

As I understand it, the abandonment of small farms is driven, or accompanied, by bankruptcies in a lot of cases.

No. The way kids see it, there's nothing to do in the towns they live in, and farming's a dead end.

In other places, the introduction of capital-intensive commodity farming forces down the price of the produce, and those semi-subsistence farmers who have a foothold in the cash economy through the sale of their surplus, are ruined.

Where would this be? Where are these happy subsistence farmers? I've read accounts of happy hunter-gatherers, none of happy subsistence farmers.

often, small farmers are physically forced out by those with access to capital, who need to increase their land holdings.

Where would this be?

You have to keep in mind that the families in subsistence households tend to be underemployed now that populations are not held in check by infant mortality.

I don't doubt that there are unhappy people forced off their farms by economics in France, despite decades of heavy subsidy. I'd claim that there is a special French attitude toward farming and food (which is why it's better there than anywhere else. It's not the prep; it's the ingredients.)

5584. alistairconnor - 4/18/2005 2:55:03 AM

OK, so I sound like I'm passéist and nostalgic.

Not so. My point is (and Jay's remarks about organics reinforce this) that the brute-force method of rural development (consisting of encouraging capital-intensive methods) is in many or most cases not optimal, even from a purely agronomical point of view, and certainly not socially.

50 years ago in Europe, the cities needed an influx of rural people to power a rapidly expanding economy. This is probably true today of some developing economies, e.g. in SE Asia, and is certainly not the case in others, notably in Africa.

In many places, people continue living in miserable subsistence conditions, precisely because there are no better opportunities elsewhere. Also, very often, they can not even pull themselves up by their bootstraps, because artificially-low (subsidised) international foodstuff prices, and locally-subsidised basic foodstuffs, make it impossible to get a decent return on their surplus. These are the people who can best be helped by the diffusion of low-energy agronomical techniques (a "cuban" strategy), organisation of markets, etc.

5585. PelleNilsson - 4/18/2005 3:21:28 AM

Good governance is the best development strategy. Away with corrupt kleptocracies! Away with nepotism! Away with swollen bureaucracies where people sit around devising absurd, stifling rules and regulations because they have nothing better to do. I have been to Africa many times and met many industrious, innovative Africans but they are not given any room for their talents.

5586. alistairconnor - 4/18/2005 3:32:36 AM

Jay : No. The way kids see it...

I'm confused. Are you saying the bankruptcies are not happening, or are you saying that they are caused by the kids' desires?

often, small farmers are physically forced out by those with access to capital, who need to increase their land holdings.

Where would this be?

Happens a lot in Latin America.

Where are these happy subsistence farmers?

It's an interesting point, but I didn't allege happiness. I simply point out that there are often strong economic constraints on those subsistence farmers who freely choose to be happy urban slum dwellers.

5587. Macnas - 4/18/2005 3:54:43 AM

You'd be amazed Jay, just how many farmers are content just to hang on, making ends meet as best they can.

That's not to say that aid from the EU hasn't delayed the enivitable demise of many small holdings, but I know many who are still determined to stay on farming, come what may.

And quite a few are young farmers. Many supplement income with part-time work, such as silage cutting, and other farm services to bigger farms. Others have jobs in workshops (farming does qualify you for many jobs, such as being handy with a welder and cutting torch).

The outlook isn't rosey, but many will stick it out for as long as is possible.

5588. jayackroyd - 4/18/2005 3:59:10 AM

I'm confused. Are you saying the bankruptcies are not happening, or are you saying that they are caused by the kids' desires?

I'm saying bankruptcies aren't causing kids to not take up their parents' farms, from the news reports I've seen. The life in a small town in Nebraska raising corn is simply not as appealing as a job in Omaha, or New York.

Bankruptcies in general don't look bad to me.

Sorry this is so small. The source .

On happy subsistence farmers, do you know how brutal that existence is? It's one thing if it's your only choice, but if there is somewhere to go, people go. And, even worse, if your production levels won't support everybody, what else can they do?

5589. alistairconnor - 4/18/2005 4:37:10 AM

On happy subsistence farmers, do you know how brutal that existence is?

This is becoming circular. That is the implicit starting point of this discussion. The debate is on strategies to alleviate this condition.

Probably the best strategy is rapid industrialisation. It seems to be working OK in SE Asia. It has been a miserable failure in Africa. The question is, what next?

Abolishing corruption and inefficiency would help a great deal, as Pelle notes. It's a nice idea.

Failing that...

5590. alistairconnor - 4/18/2005 5:05:11 AM

Bankruptcies in general don't look bad to me.

My impressions about farm bankruptcies in the US seem to be severely dated, probably coming from the shakeout in the 80s (for which the statistics apparently don't exist).
So the miserable subsistence farmers of the midwest have already mostly been liberated, I suppose.

5591. jayackroyd - 4/18/2005 5:10:28 AM

Rapid industrialization requires dense populations and a government concerned, at least to some degree, with the welfare of the people. It didn't work in the USSR. It won't work in Zimbabwe. But in Asia there is a certain amount of infrastructure in place. Educational attainment is higher. Sweatshops are easy to organize. (Mind you, I don't lose my shit over what some people here call sweatshops. As long as people are working voluntarily, I don't have a huge problem. I'd like to see some kind of minimum labor practice label.)

For Africa, let's start with clean water. And let's eliminate ag subsidies in the OECD and allow them to make some cash income. And forgive the debts for the less egregious regimes, and provide carrots for the more egregious. Reward Botswana and Mozambique for the efforts they've gone to.

Then there will at least be a starting point. Africa is not even there yet.

Did you see Hotel Rwanda?

5592. alistairconnor - 4/18/2005 5:31:41 AM

I agree with all you say about Africa. I also think that helping subsistence farmers to optimise their agricultural practices is important, and importantly, doesn't require everything else to be right before you start.

No, haven't seen the film... does France take a hammering? It should.

5593. jayackroyd - 4/18/2005 5:41:17 AM

We can't help subsistence farmers much to optimise their agricultural production. They've already done that over the last couple dozen generations. One would have to come up with a whole new paradigm, as with Pelle's reference to mechanization. Western experts have been largely unsuccessful making improvements to current practice.

A key scene in Hotel Rwanda (Nick Nolte is surprisingly good as the UN C-in-C) involves the recognition that the west just doesn't care what happens in Africa.

5594. jayackroyd - 4/18/2005 5:47:34 AM

Oh, and yes, there is a little French bashing. A lot more Belgium bashing. I hadn't known that the Hutu-Tutsi divide had been created by the Belgians.

5595. Marc-Albert - 4/18/2005 7:03:33 AM

You were right in your blissful ignorance, because the Belgians did not create the Hutu-Tutsi divide during the short 32 years they ruled Rwanda and Burundi.

The Tutsis have lorded over the Hutu at least since the the 16th century in the mixed feudal/pastoral environment of those countries. The kings and the aristocracy were Tutsis.

European colonisation came very late to Rwanda and Burundi. When the Germans arrived around 1890, they simply maintained the existing socio-economic system. When the Belgians took over after 1918, they did the same, confirming Tutsi dominance while reserving ultimate autority to themselves.

It is silly, as some anti-colonial ideologically-driven historians have said (be PC, always blame the White Man), that Belgians could have created such a strong antagonism between the two tribes in the short period that they rule the area.

5596. Wombat - 4/18/2005 7:10:24 AM

The Belgians institutionalized the Hutu-Tutsi divide in the western context (ID cards, ethnic classification, etc.), and made the Tutsis priviledged partners in Belgian rule at the expense of the Hutu.

5597. jayackroyd - 4/18/2005 7:20:48 AM

The claim in the film (and I was told by my viewing partner) was the classification was made by the degree of how western looking the features of the individual were, how light-skinned, and whether the individual was tall/thin vs short/stocky.

The central protagonist is a Hutu man married to a Tutsi woman. One brave and crafty fellow, regardless of the degree of license taken. He's now alive and living in Belgium with his family.

5598. jayackroyd - 4/18/2005 7:23:21 AM

It is silly, as some anti-colonial ideologically-driven historians have said (be PC, always blame the White Man), that Belgians could have created such a strong antagonism between the two tribes in the short period that they rule the area.

That's what I thought when I heard the claim in the movie. However, Jared Diamond claims in his latest book (of which I have only read adapted essays) that this was not fundamentally about ethnic strife, but about overpopulation and resource shortages. Too many young men, too little land.

5599. PelleNilsson - 4/18/2005 9:24:02 AM

Alistair

Abolishing corruption and inefficiency would help a great deal, as Pelle notes. It's a nice idea.

Failing that...

Failing that nothing. That is my opinion after 30 years in the development business.

When are you going to attend to my Message # 5573 and Message # 5575?

5600. jayackroyd - 4/18/2005 9:51:49 AM

Pelle-

How is saying that any different from the pie-in-the-sky things the greens say?

5601. PelleNilsson - 4/18/2005 11:24:16 AM

Do you mean that development can take place in spite of corruption, sleaze in general and nepotism leading to incompetence at all levels of authority?

If so, how?

There is a reson why some countries get ahead while others stay behind, and that reason is, in my opinion, bad governance. Why is Japan, almost totally lacking indigenous natural resources one of the richest countries in the world while the resource-rich Congo (or Angola) is a total failure? Why has Saudi Arabia whith its abundance of capital failed to develop a strong industrial base?

5602. jayackroyd - 4/18/2005 11:55:14 AM

Do you mean that development can take place in spite of corruption, sleaze in general and nepotism leading to incompetence at all levels of authority?

I mean that just as the greens have goals that have no clear path to attainment, there is no path for the elimination of corruption, sleaze and nepotism. That's one reason I got out of the business. It's corrosive. I feared I would end up the other cynical ex-pats, cashing their USAID checks, flying business class and staying at the Meridien. And our project was an idealistic attempt to change the way development works. Not to say it's just the contractors--the donor agency reps, the recipient reps are equally culpable. But there is something very broken that the BA ticket that flew me home cost more than than the total annual cash income of the 15 household cluster I had been living in.

So I agree it is a central problem (if it weren't, those water projects I was talking about would have been done decades ago), but I don't see a path out. You need to get lucky and get a good leader, like Botswana.

The theory on why resource-rich countries fail to establish good governance is that the natural resources represent such a huge centralized revenue flow that corruption is inevitable. Actually, resource richness and affluence are pretty much negatively correlated. The US is an exception, but look at Venezuela or Australia.

One of my most fervent wishes for Iraq is that there is an oil grant made to each citizen, to get at least some of the money out of the government's hands (and to mollify the losers in Kirkuk and elsewhere). But I am not holding my breath.

5603. PelleNilsson - 4/18/2005 12:30:20 PM

"Rapid industrialization"

This has been tried. It was in fact the first development strategy adopted by "the international community" (ie. the World Bank) for post-colonial Africa. It was known as the "kick-off strategy" based on a theory developed by the American economist and founded on the Western historical experience of industrialization-.This can be summarized (and simplified) as follows.

Productivity increases in agriculture lead to increased incomes for farmers.
Part of that is used for investment in mechanization (albeit still horse-powered) further increasing productivity part is used for increased consumtion of non-farming products.
This creates the beginnings of a manufacturing industry. It also creates a labour pool of redundant farm labourers who are absorbed by the emerging industry.
Economic develepment takes off and proceeds at an ever increasing pace.

In the West this process took place over a period of fifty years or more. Rostow's idea was to radically compress the time scale. Agriculture would go directly from the hoe to the tractor. The waiting time for capital accumulation would be eliminated by credits from the World Bank to be repaid when the efforts had born fruit. The shape of the manufacturing sector would be determined by western planning experts. Everything would mesh nicely together and the benefits would show up within a decade or so.

What Rostow had not taken into account whas the need for infrastructure. I am not talking about roads, railways, ports, electricity, telecom or other hard stuff but of "soft" infrastructure: reliable and stable systems for payments, credits, insurance, adjucationn of contractual disputes and many other things that are indispensable in an industrial economy. In the West these things had evolved organically during a long period. In Africa they did not exist at all.

As a result the strategy was a total and tragic failure. If you travel in Africa today you can still see unfinished factory buildings and rusting machinery dating back to the 60s and 70s, ironic monuments to the memory of Walt Rostow who died in 2003.

5604. jayackroyd - 4/18/2005 12:43:44 PM

You left out the import substitution part, which created a corrupt set of cronies. But it's not like the other strategies imposed later on by western advisers as the price of getting western money were any more successful.

At the time, though,it did seem to be working in the USSR.

5605. marjoribanks - 4/20/2005 2:57:58 AM

Re: India-Pakistan

Several years ago, I remember writing in this thread that what was happening on the cricket field between India and Pakistan was going to shake up the perennially hostile stance the countries have taken most of the time since 1947. Our quarter-Pakistani/Pashtun correspondent ridiculed that opinion, but – as is usual – I have been proven comprehensively correct in my analysis by the events that have followed. Most recent, of course, is the plaintive appeal by Musharraf to come and watch the cricket in Delhi – a request that was received positively, and we were all subjected to television pictures – just last week - of a slightly jubilant general explaining the finer points of the cover drive to a rather bemused Manmohan Singh’s wife. That was last week.

See, what happened, years ago, is that the teams had not played each other in the subcontinent for several years when the Pakis finally came down to play in a nervous India. And in one match, in Chennai, the Pakis first thrashed the Indians, and then took an hour-long victory lap in front of an Indian crowd that yelled its heart out without stopping. The players were all shaken by this brand of solidarity, they said as much in every newspaper and on every public airwave in the subcontinent, and this is what prompted my comments years ago that things were going to change.

Since then, loosely, cricket has been the main symbol of the changing relationship between India and Pakistan, and it has culminated in last year’s Indian tour of Pak and then this recent reverse stand. Really, the turning point in the relationship can be put down to a number of things – including the decision by Vajpayee (and the BJP) to enter into very strict nuclear protocols with Pak – but there is no doubt that the strong grassroots feeling that it’s time to get over Partition has seen its most public flowering alongside cricket. For India’s intelligentsia, media, political class, and even the Page 3 set, the a-ha moment came during that tour last year. It was almost called-off, there were threats made by extremists, all of this in the post 9/11 era. But the Pakis didn’t just invite the team – they opened the doors almost completely and thousands and thousands of Indians in their 20’s, 30’s and 40’s poured over the border and engaged with Pakistan on the street. The unanimous feeling (I know at least 20 of the people who went over) was that this was a kind of smashing of the Berlin Wall, not a single negative account of the Pakistanis has been heard from any of those people.

Spontaneous hospitality is a hallmark of our region, and from all accounts the Indians – from Sachin Tendulkar and Priyanka Gandhi to my journalist buddies – were received more warmly than anyone could ever have hoped for. Dozens of books have been written since then about the necessity to put the hostility behind us, columnists and writers now routinely publish in the opposite country’s media, Bollywood has suddenly made a dozen conciliatory films in a row, and Shahryar Khan (now head of the PCB) has actually written a book called Cricket Diplomacy about what has happened between India and Pakistan in the wake of simple cricket matches.

Since then, Punjab has thrown open its borders (the huge state was divided in 1947) for all-Punjab games, and those teary scenes have been multiplied by 500 (Punjabis are big criers), and thousands of Pak Punjabis were housed by locals on this side of the border, and visited their ancestral villages, etc. And then it all happened again with this recent tour, when the captain of the Pakis had to regretfully turn down an offer by a similarly named Bengali family who declared him a relative and invited him to come down and claim his birthright of fruit orchards and fish-ponds.

Bad shit can always happen, but I can’t see things going anyplace but upwards from here. There will not be war. There will be increasing liberalization of the borders (there was a bus between the two parts of Kashmir last week), more congruity in the media of the two countries, more travel by ordinary citizens. But, frankly, I hope there isn’t that much more cricket. The fuckers beat us badly in the one-dayers and somehow salvaged a tie in the tests.

5606. robertjayb - 4/20/2005 2:53:35 PM

Berlusconi will reboot...

ROME (Reuters) - Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi resigned on Wednesday but vowed to form a new coalition government with the same partners, seeking to avert a snap general election and revive flagging political fortunes.

"I accept the challenge of forming a new government," Berlusconi told parliament, saying he had assurances from the four main parties in his center-right coalition that they would back him.

His coalition was plunged into disarray when two coalition partners, the Union of Christian Democrats (UDC) and the right-wing National Alliance (AN), demanded sweeping changes after a heavy defeat in a regional ballot two weeks ago.

5607. robertjayb - 4/20/2005 2:59:21 PM

Ecuador's president gets the boot...

QUITO, Ecuador (AP) - Ecuador's Congress removed embattled President Lucio Gutierrez from office Wednesday after a week of escalating street protests against him and swore in Vice-President Alfredo Palacio as Ecuador's new leader.

A special session made up of opposition congressmen in the 100-seat unicameral Congress took less than an hour to reach the decision with a vote of 62-0, in hopes of ending a crisis that was quickly spiralling out of control with the threat of violent clashes between Gutierrez supporters and opponents.

5608. alistairConnor - 4/20/2005 3:02:17 PM

Looks like the Italian right are staking out positions for the post-Berlusconi era.

They have already understood that they are getting thrashed in the next election, some are keen to get it over with.

In all events, the clown is a lame duck now, he won't be able to do much more damage.

5609. jexster - 4/20/2005 6:18:27 PM

I am sure Pooty Poot is losing sleep this night

MOSCOW (Reuters) - Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said on Wednesday Russian President Vladimir Putin had too much personal power and that Washington was closely watching the trial of oil magnate Mikhail Khodorkovsky.

5610. Gebhard - 4/21/2005 9:28:14 AM

Anybody watching Greenspan and his comments ? Well it hasn't been a year, but he has said that it would be much better for the Chinese economy to no longer fix the yuan to the dollar.

How will the Chinese react ?

5611. sakonige - 4/21/2005 11:35:36 AM

Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said on Wednesday Russian President Vladimir Putin had too much personal power and that Washington was closely watching the trial of oil magnate Mikhail Khodorkovsky.

Putin considers telling Condi where to stick it.

5612. concerned - 4/21/2005 11:55:16 AM

Geez-o-weez, Sak! Where's your empathy for downtrodden minorities? Sheesh!

5613. concerned - 4/21/2005 11:55:16 AM

Geez-o-weez, Sak! Where's your empathy for downtrodden minorities? Sheesh!

5614. jexster - 4/21/2005 5:20:19 PM

Pest Control
Eradicating the Killer Bees: Italians Scramble to Form New Gov't following Berlusconi Resignation

5615. sakonige - 4/21/2005 11:10:21 PM

Geez-o-weez, Sak! Where's your empathy for downtrodden minorities? Sheesh!

My empathy is right here. But the look on Putin's face in that picture is hilarious. He must not be able to hide his feelings with a fake smile very well.

5616. alistairconnor - 4/22/2005 1:20:38 AM

Completely reptilian. Snake and chicken. He's hypnotized her, we'll hear no more about those complaints.

5617. jexster - 4/23/2005 10:03:34 PM

Blair blow as secret war doubts revealed

· Attorney General's advice on Iraq is leaked
· He cast doubts on legality of invasion

5618. jexster - 4/26/2005 9:32:47 AM

Here's a foreign affairs quiz:

(1) How many nuclear weapons did North Korea produce in Bill Clinton's eight years of office?

(2) How many nuclear weapons has it produced so far in President Bush's four years in office?

The answer to the first question, by all accounts, is zero. The answer to the second is fuzzier, but about six.

PRNK 6 bUSh 0

5619. Marc-Albert - 4/30/2005 4:30:33 PM

A new city is taking shape just 4 km from District 1 - the center of old Saigon.

When finished, the 3,300 hectare (8,154 acre) Saigon South development will be home to a million people. Its carefully planned environment boasts the most modern infrastructure and amenities in Southeast Asia.

Thank you for your interest in the Phu My Hung Corporation. Please direct all inquires to the following address or send us an email using the form below:

Office Location:

Phu My Hung Corporation, Saigon South Parkway, Tan Phu Ward, District 7, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnan.

(Phu My Hung means Wealth, Beauty, Prosperity. The Phu My Hung Corporation is a joint project of Taiwanese interests and the Communist Party Section of what is still occasionally called Ho Chi Minh City.)

5620. Marc-Albert - 4/30/2005 4:41:28 PM

I bet Cuban Army Corp General Raul Castro, Defense Minister and 1st Vice-President, who is in Vietnam this week-end for the celebrations, will be given a grand tour of Saigon South.

5621. jexster - 4/30/2005 10:14:20 PM

Louis Lapham - Harpers April Issue....

His Notebook essay, styled a travelogue reflection of his trip to Brussels for the Feb. opening session of the EU parliament, speaks highly of the Parliament's Green Party Prez, Daniel Cohn-Bendit.

The essay itself compares the emerging structure of the EU and Europe's emergin political culture with the US whose Congress opened a few weeks earlier. It is another great unlinkable Harpers essay which I may summarize later but for now, the Cohn-Bendit guy seems a sharp mofo :

5622. jexster - 4/30/2005 10:17:26 PM

Yes he will Marc. The Vietnamese have developed along with Saigon North an enviable rep for hospitality to ferriners of all type and stripe. My good friend who heads the East Asia govt relations of Unocal visits regularly and has nothing but good things to say about our "enemies"

5623. jexster - 5/1/2005 2:12:50 PM

AC what is this green rash on my groin?

Foreign Policy Magazine
A Debate Between Daniel Cohn-Bendit and Richard Perle

5624. jexster - 5/1/2005 2:17:49 PM

D Cohn-Bendit

5625. jexster - 5/1/2005 10:55:33 PM

I took heart from Europe's willingness to learn from experience and to employ the tools of constitutional government that in AmeriKa have become museum pieces, to find its security in the heatlh, courage, and intelligence of its citizens rather than in four color photographs of invincible air craft carriers, to understand the democratic idea not as a projection of power but as an _expression of liberty.

"We have made Europe," Gremek had said, "but how do we make Europeans?" What he had in mind was a civilization in place of a fortress, and although the question is unanswerable, it seemed to me somehow better matched to the complexities of the twenty-first century than the ones that get asked in Washington about the throw weight of the President's codpiece....

Louis Lapham is such a queen!

What is the throw weight of Georgie's codpiece?

I bet TD knows the answrr..I'll make a note to ask him at his next Appearing

5626. jexster - 5/1/2005 10:57:23 PM

toys..vive La France! Vive Europa!

5627. Ulgine Barrows - 5/1/2005 10:59:22 PM

viva la tongue!

5628. jexster - 5/1/2005 11:41:51 PM

mmm.. tongue..codpiece..Ugline..

Got it

5629. alistairconnor - 5/2/2005 2:03:58 AM

The making of Europeans is underway, slow but inexorable.

Spain is the first EU country where same-sex marriages are recognised.

This doesn't imply that, for example, a couple of French boys or girls who marry in Spain would have their marriage recognised in France. But it does have interesting implications for immigration :
France has the obligation to grant residency to a foreign spouse of an EU citizen. There hasn't yet been a same-sex text case, but there is no apparrent wiggle room.

So Jex, if you want to live in France...

5630. alistairconnor - 5/2/2005 7:48:44 AM

Ulgine, you can tongue my codpiece any time you like.

5631. alistairconnor - 5/2/2005 7:59:48 AM

Jex, you realise your new hero Daniel Cohn Bendit is the same who led the student barricades in the Quartier Latin in May 68... sending De Gaulle in panic to Baden-Baden.
(De Gaulle is alleged to have sent a message to the Israeli government : "Tell your Dany le Rouge to calm down"... that must have confused them)

He's had most of his political career in Germany. In terms of the French Greens, he's unanimously considered to be a right-wing mofo. But we still love him.

5632. Magoseph - 5/2/2005 8:44:21 AM

Ulgine, Bush has one:

5633. Magoseph - 5/2/2005 8:55:37 AM

Managing China's Rise--Contending effectively with China's ambitions requires a better understanding of our own, by Benjamin Schwarz

When President Bush took office, in 2001, the dominant national-security issue for his administration—and for most foreign-policy analysts, whether Republican or Democrat—was not terrorism or even Iraq but China. The issue, specifically, is that China will eventually emerge as what Pentagon planners call a "peer competitor" to the United States in East Asia—that is, a great power with the economic and military muscle to challenge America's preponderant position in a region that is sure to be the economic pivot of the new century.

When "eventually" may roll around is a matter of intense debate between moderates and hardliners. The moderates have a better case. Hardliners, some of whom hold powerful positions in the current administration, see a hegemon on the horizon. But China is a defense-minded state, vulnerable to domestic turmoil and burdened with colossal environmental problems and natural-resource demands. True, over the past several years China has selectively and impressively modernized its armed forces, but they're still debilitated by pervasive corruption and are organizationally and technologically far behind not only America's but also Japan's and South Korea's. Hardliners point, correctly, to Beijing's ambitions to play a more active role in the eastern Pacific. But they exaggerate when they claim that soon China will be able to disrupt sea-lanes and intimidate Malaysia, Singapore, the Philippines, and even Australia and Japan—because the problems posed by projecting air and naval power far from home waters are a good deal more complicated than those in a game of Risk. To bid for mastery of East Asia, China will have to fundamentally transform the doctrine, training, and structure of its military (which has traditionally focused on defending home territory), not to mention acquire aircraft carriers—no easy task in itself. Hardliners warn that China has recently bought first-rate fighter planes from Russia, but America's fighter pilots are vastly superior, owing to their incomparably better experience, tactics, and training (the Chinese air force has been training to fly over open waters for only seven years, and its pilots can devote barely half the hours to flight training that U.S. pilots can). Forget about fighting the United States or Japan; today China's navy would lose a battle in the home waters of Singapore or Malaysia. To be sure, China's newly acquired midrange missiles, and even its diesel submarines, complicate aspects of U.S. naval planning in the eastern Pacific. The United States, however, has such a jump on Beijing in its command, control, communications, computer, and intelligence capabilities—by far the most vital elements of a modern military's effectiveness, and by far the most difficult to develop—that American strategic supremacy in East Asia will grow, not diminish, in the coming years.
(continued)

5634. jexster - 5/2/2005 10:36:19 AM

Mais certainment AC!

5635. jexster - 5/2/2005 10:58:59 AM

A couple questions AC..how do I get my "green card" and

Lapham makes much of what I take from his description is some sort of variant in the EU parliament on the venerable "corporatist" tradition in Europe.

Specifically:

What's this about? Lapham is sometimes more in love with his rhetoric and than his reportage...

5636. jexster - 5/2/2005 11:19:28 AM

Mago..see my post on the Wang Chung Oil Company coming soon to a corner in your neighborhood..in AP..

I hear they are planning a fast food menu of pot sticker, egg roll, and chow fun

YUM!

5637. jexster - 5/2/2005 11:58:21 AM

It is merely anecdotal evidence of the NEW Europe (that's New + Old in Bush ShitSpeak TD) but I recently met two gay couples on different occasions, SF touristas, one from Holland, the other from Austria.

The question "Ya wanna move here?" probably would have drawn at least a "maybe"..

But in each case, the answer was a decided Nein...and the reason cited by both was two-fold - first and foremost a definite Euro pride and secondarily extreme disgust with Bush League AmeriKa

Like I said..not representative...but tellingly illustrative..

Even the Gay Mecca's delights did not matter

5638. jexster - 5/2/2005 11:59:45 AM

They still come but as they say about New York..nice place to visit but I wouldn't wanna live there

5639. PelleNilsson - 5/2/2005 1:24:19 PM

This from an op-ed piece in the IHT dealing with an Ethiopian village.

Some 5,000 villagers live out their short lives - life expectancy here is about 40 years.

In the twilight of her life at age 30, Kidan Hagos a mother of seven, leaned against a shady tree as she took a break from hacking rocks for the new clinic.

I get so tired, so angry, so outright disgusted by innumerate reporters who do not understand that in countries with high infant mortality life expectancy at 30 has nothing to do with life expectancy at birth.

5640. alistairConnor - 5/2/2005 1:52:40 PM

Message # 5635 1) Easy Jex : marry a nice Spanish boy, then you can move to France and apply for a 10-year residence permit.

They may try to deny it to you, and the papers will all write up the story in sympathetic terms, and you'll get it in the end.

(Oh by the way, Bertrand and whatsisname, his husband, had their marriage invalidated by the Court of Appeals a couple of weeks ago -- they are appealing to the European Human Rights Court now.)

5641. alistairConnor - 5/2/2005 1:56:32 PM

2) He's talking about Euro- MPs being rather more relevant and competent than they are given credit for. I think he's right -- the quality of the legislation is generally pretty good, the same can not be said of the directives that come from the Commission and the Council of Ministers.

The main problem I have with the EU Constitution is that it gives too little power to the Parliament, and leaves far too much in the hands of the other two, unaccountable, small-minded politically driven institutions.

5642. jexster - 5/2/2005 4:07:59 PM

Merci AC...

Tell Le Boss des Verts, I am doin my bit for Le Cause

The European Dream - America's nightmare?

Video of the Panel debate with Jeremy Rifkin on 15 February 2005 in the European Parliament
In a panel debate with Jeremy Rifkin, president of the Foundation on Economic Trends and advisor to government leaders and heads of state, the Green/EFA group discussed on Tuesday, 15 February 2005 in the European Parliament the chances of realizing the "European Dream": >>>Start

For access to pictures of the event, the report, the audio-streaming and other documents

Clique Ici

5643. jexster - 5/2/2005 4:12:26 PM

You mean I have to go to Barcelona on my own dime which will be worth 1/2 of what it is now once I get around to it...then spend tens of thousands of Euros buying a Spanish boy's affections before I can get the CHANCE at French Citizenship

Whatever happened to Liberte, Egalite, Fraternite?

I betcha if I was a towelhead I'd have no such problemes

You tell Le Boss, if he ever aspires to more than cheapo Hollywood knock-off website..you know how to get in touch w/ moi

5644. jexster - 5/2/2005 4:15:09 PM

Re; EU reps...

Is there a "corporatist" element that determines selection (like Franco, like Medieval guilds ou non?

Si "oui" what are the specifics, s'il vous plait?

Workin on my franglais AC

5645. Marc-Albert - 5/2/2005 5:26:54 PM

You could practice your franglais with any one of the dozens of article in the French press these last few days about the reason why the execrated Tony Blair ("Bush's poodle") is going to be the first Labour PM to be re-elected for a third term in a few days.

It's the economy, stupid! (and the French are understandably a bit envious, or bitter)

En huit ans, le "blairisme" a fait reculer le chômage et lancé la réforme des services publics

Or this:

PROBUSINESS

Cette stratégie du New Labour a deux temps : tout faire pour la croissance ; le social viendra ensuite. Contrairement à ce qu'on entend en France, elle ne conduit pas à un social "peau de chagrin" . Etre probusiness ne force pas Blair à être antisocial. C'est le contraire qui est vrai, être probusiness est la condition du social. Et, à l'examen, la résultante sociale de la stratégie blairiste est importante et bien supérieure à celle issue de la stratégie française de prétendue "résistance" .
Qu'on ne se méprenne pas : l'Etat social est bien plus développé en France qu'en Grande-Bretagne depuis toujours, et plus encore depuis le passage ravageur de Margaret Thatcher. Mais il ne s'agit pas ici de stock, mais de flux, d'évolution. Et, partant de plus bas, la situation sociale britannique s'améliore, tandis que la nôtre se dégrade.
La démonstration est désormais chiffrée. Le niveau de vie moyen des Britanniques, qui était de 15 % inférieur au nôtre il y a vingt-cinq ans, le dépasse aujourd'hui de 5 %. La croissance est supérieure à celle de la France (2,5 % contre 1,9 % en 2005), mais elle est surtout plus résistante, plus autonome, face aux aléas en provenance des Etats-Unis (l'économie est cruelle pour la diplomatie du cocorico). La Grande-Bretagne connaît sa plus longue période de prospérité depuis... 1701, date de la création des royales statistiques.

5646. jexster - 5/2/2005 8:28:49 PM

Rice to N. Korea: U.S. Can Defend Itself - one hour ago

Rapidly becoming an international laughingstock

But not to worry TD...China won't let anything happen to us...they're get those Wang Chung Oil signs made

Even got a jingle...

5647. alistairconnor - 5/3/2005 1:47:36 AM

Britain has bowed out fairly gracefully from its erstwhile "great power" status.

Another vestige disappears... last rocket launch

5648. alistairconnor - 5/3/2005 1:55:17 AM

Jex : corporatist EU MPs?

Hard to analyse. No two countries have the same electoral system for Europe (one weakness of the system). The low profile of the EU parliament, and lack of career prospects, means that nominations are generally not bitterly fought over as they are for national parliaments. As a result, you generally get people who are genuinely interested in the job itself. So there is a high proportion who are not career politicians. Topped up by politicians who have generally been marginalized in internal power struggles, and are given the nomination as a sop (semi-retirement, or planning a comeback).

5649. jexster - 5/3/2005 11:00:38 AM

Oh damn I thought that you guyz had gotten in touch with your history and brought the guild system into the 21st century...

5650. alistairconnor - 5/4/2005 4:28:01 AM

Brazil tells Bush to get f*cked... but with a condom

Brazil yesterday became the first country to take a public stand against the Bush administration's massive Aids programme which is seen by many as seeking increasingly to press its anti-abortion, pro-abstinence sexual agenda on poorer countries.

Campaigners applauded Brazil's rejection of $40m for its Aids programmes because it refuses to agree to a declaration condemning prostitution.

[...]
Sam Brownback, a leading Senate conservative, told the Wall Street Journal: "Obviously Brazil has the right to act however it chooses in this regard. We're talking about promotion of prostitution which the majority of both the house and the Senate believe is harmful to women."

To which the obvious answer is : then why don't you pass a law against it in the US?

5651. jayackroyd - 5/4/2005 1:07:10 PM

It is illegal everywhere but Nevada.

5652. alistairConnor - 5/4/2005 3:00:09 PM

You're serious? Prostitution is illegal in the US?

5653. wonkers2 - 5/4/2005 3:49:23 PM

Brasil had one of the earliest and most effective AIDs programs with, among other things, very graphic TV cartoons advocating safe sex and depicting how to do it.

5654. wonkers2 - 5/4/2005 3:51:05 PM

The average Brazilian's attitude toward sex is about as far from that of the Bush administration as you could get.

5655. jexster - 5/5/2005 3:29:45 PM

Election Returns: Poodle With a Bad Case of Bush Mange
Tony Blair's Labour Party won an unprecedented third term in office but with a sharply reduced majority in Parliament that could set the stage for Blair to be replaced by a party rival, according to exit poll projections broadcast as vote counting began in Britain's national election Thursday.

With a 66-seat majority Blair could face difficulties controlling a faction of his party deeply disillusioned with his leadership, especially over the war in Iraq, and ready for a new prime minister such as Treasury chief Gordon Brown.

The BBC projected that Labour would win with 37 percent of the popular vote, the lowest winning share ever. The Conservatives, showing their first signs of life since losing power eight years ago, were projected to take 33 percent.

The BBC and ITV projections, based on a survey of 13,000 or more voters in 115 closely contested districts, suggested Labour would win 356 seats, ahead of the main opposition Conservatives with 209. The Liberal Democrats, the only major party to oppose the Iraq war, were projected to win 53 seats — for them a disappointing gain of two seats.

The projected victory was a comedown for Blair following landslides in 1997 and 2001. In the previous House of Commons, Labour had 161 more seats than the combined opposition.

Such a result matched the "bloody nose" — a humiliation but not a defeat — that opponents had hoped to administer to the prime minister who took Britain into the divisive war in Iraq.

The government's strong economic record and investment in public services such as health care and education appear to have outweighed lingering resentment about the U.S.-led invasion.

Counting in 645 Parliamentary districts was continuing through the night, and the winner would not be officially confirmed at least until Friday morning.

5656. Magoseph - 5/5/2005 4:36:49 PM

Prostitution is illegal in the US?

Prostitution is not a legal women’s choice in this country, Ali.

5657. Magoseph - 5/5/2005 4:55:02 PM

Toys

5658. jexster - 5/6/2005 11:31:33 AM

Blair just lost 100 seats and has one hella case of the mange

He's not the only one either. BBC World reporting last night from the Italian parliament:

"Berlusconi desperately wants the Italian people to forget his relationship with George Bush and his support for Bush's war in Iraq. The Italians aren't being very accomodating"

and neither are the Brits. In fact, Chris Mathews Hardball picked up a story line from the New York times to the effect that the US can kiss British military support for future adventures GOOD BYE.

5659. Marc-Albert - 5/6/2005 3:29:38 PM

Blair just lost 100 seats

It's of very little consequenc in countries with first-past-the-post electoral systems like the U.K. and Canada, where the distribution of seats varies wildly from one election to another. It's quite common, it's part of the first-past-the-post system and it's soon forgotten.

We're going to have national elections anytime now in Canada, and Paul Martin will be ecstatic if he were to be re-elected with a 6-seat -- let alone a 66-seat -- absolute majority.

5660. Marc-Albert - 5/6/2005 3:38:53 PM

Ten years ago or so, the Parti Québécois got re-elected with 46% of the vote, while the opposition Liberal Party had received 48%. That was not a unique case. Yet the PQ went on governing with as much authority and legitimacy as if it had got 88% of the vote.

You win, you win, and as long as you can control Parliament, that's all that count.

5661. jexster - 5/7/2005 12:33:00 PM

Last night the Washington correspondent for the Daily Telegraph who'd been covering Blair during the campaign said that the entire significance of the election was captured in the look on Blair's face:

One of Mr. Blair's opponents in his constituency was Reg Keys, whose son died in Iraq. "I hope in my heart that one day the prime minister may be able to say, 'I'm sorry,' " Mr. Keys said, as an ashen Mr. Blair stared straight ahead.

Analysis: Blair, Bush and the Iraq War

5662. jexster - 5/7/2005 12:40:30 PM

Blair's Time Is Running Out

Senior figures in the Labour party last night called on Tony Blair to abandon his presidential style of government, rein back on his most radical ambitions and name the date of his departure.

5663. PelleNilsson - 5/8/2005 10:32:59 AM

It's of very little consequenc in countries with first-past-the-post electoral systems like the U.K. and Canada, where the distribution of seats varies wildly from one election to another. It's quite common, it's part of the first-past-the-post system and it's soon forgotten.

It won't be in the UK because a significant number of the Labour backbenchers are of the unreformed, old labour. Tony Benn variety. With his large majority in the last parliament Blair could afford to snub them. Not so anymore.

5664. jexster - 5/8/2005 11:19:04 AM

I take it that "first-past-the-post" is the same as "winner-take-all" ie no proportional representation, no run-off, a plurality winner takes all...

Certainly things may be different in parliamentary systems, though I cannot on this question come up with a good reason why, but the hypothesis that such systems produce wild swings is not valid.

5665. jexster - 5/8/2005 11:23:31 AM

Certainly Blair and his Labour party aren't joining Marc-Albert in singing que sera sera over these results against such mediocre competition.

Labour remains the dominant party in Britain. Blair used to be the dominant politician.

No more.

5666. PelleNilsson - 5/8/2005 11:43:16 AM

The winner-takes-all system can produce some odd results when there are more than two parties. In this election Labour got a parliamentary majority of 67 with only 36% of the votes. Withe a proportional system they had been forced into a coalition with the Liberal Democrats who positioned themselves to the left of Labour.

5667. Macnas - 5/9/2005 1:53:38 AM

Blair's time is coming to a close. Enter Gordon Brown.
But the party will remain strong enough to win another election as long as it doesnt do anything too stupid.

That said, the Brits have surprised everyone in the past by voting out a government simply because they think they've been in office for long enough. If the Tories want to gain more seats, they'll have to do some image modification just as labour had to do.

5668. alistairconnor - 5/9/2005 2:16:27 AM

Most likely, Labour will make the job easier for them by shifting left. Blair, being a centre-right politician, made it very hard for the Tories to stake out a distinctive position, since he was happy with most of Thatcher's legacy.

That'll put Labour and the LibDems into an interesting power struggle for the left-of-centre vote. I was hoping for more of a lib-dem breakthrough, enough to get a hung parliament, which would logically have resulted in a lib-lab coalition, at a price of revision of the electoral system and the introduction of some form of proportional representation... maybe next time.

5669. alistairconnor - 5/9/2005 2:22:07 AM

I note that Trimble's lot got wiped out by the Paisleyites. That doesn't look promising to me (insofar as I prefer cholera to the plague).

5670. Macnas - 5/9/2005 2:40:20 AM

The UUP got a right drubbing, taking only one seat. It's the perverse nature of northern politics, where an orangeman like Trimble, who I remember watching on television at the Drumcree standoff, walking the line of RUC men, pointing at them one after another, identifying each by name and address in order to intimidate them, can be held as being a croppie lover.

What makes it even stranger is the fact that Paisleys party, the DUP, is now making noises about working with Sinn Fein. This of course, they will have to do, as so many people vote for SF that they will always be a party you have to do business with.

What a fucked up province.

5671. alistairconnor - 5/9/2005 3:21:29 AM

I'm rather disappointed that Sinn Fein didn't lose any seats to the SDLP (did they?), I guess Adams's fervent peacenik act must have convinced someone.

5672. Macnas - 5/9/2005 4:02:09 AM

No, they did not lose anything to anyone really. The SDLP is fading somewhat.

SF and the DUP gain from the increasing polarisation in Ulster, mainly due to the stalled peace process and the suspension of the northern parliament.

But having said all that, there is peace, so fucked up and all though they might be, everybody is still ahead.

5673. alistairconnor - 5/9/2005 4:17:24 AM

Care for a plutonium cocktail?
A leak of highly radioactive nuclear fuel dissolved in concentrated nitric acid, enough to half fill an Olympic-size swimming pool, has forced the closure of Sellafield's Thorp reprocessing plant.

The highly dangerous mixture, containing about 20 tonnes of uranium and plutonium fuel, has leaked through a fractured pipe into a huge stainless steel chamber which is so radioactive that it is impossible to enter.

Recovering the liquids and fixing the pipes will take months and may require special robots to be built and sophisticated engineering techniques devised to repair the £2.1bn plant.

Sounds like a job for Macnas, he's a can-do sort of plumber.

5674. Macnas - 5/9/2005 4:26:42 AM

"The managing director of British Nuclear Group, Sellafield, Barry Snelson, who ordered the plant to be closed down, said: "Let me reassure people that the plant is in a safe and stable state.""

I'll tell you what I can-do, if I could-do. I'll spend every single penny that bunch of cack handed poisoners have to clean up the site, decomission it, scap avery single piece of plant, demolish the entire structure, including the foundations, dig out the spot where Windscale once stood, line the pit with lead, then pour concrete into it so all that remains is a smooth, clean naturally weathered surface. On top of this I'd then build a reinforced wall, about 3 meters high and 1 meter thick.

Then I'd line the fuckers up against it, and shoot them.

5675. jexster - 5/10/2005 1:51:18 AM

A Swede With Class
Hans Blix What a Mensch

UNITED NATIONS (Reuters) - Former U.N. chief arms inspector Hans Blix urged Iran and Israel on Monday to support a ban on nuclear enrichment across the Middle East as a possible compromise on curbing Tehran's nuclear ambitions.

Making the Middle East an enrichment-free zone would be in the interests of both Iran and Israel, Blix told a news conference on the sidelines of a month-long meeting of the 188 signatories of the 1970 nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty.

"I think Israel is extremely interested in having Iran refrain from moving on" to resuming enrichment activities, Blix said. "I'm surprised the idea has not come up before."

Such a move would also reassure Iran without affecting any existing Israeli nuclear weapons, he said. While Israel neither admits nor denies having the bomb, it is estimated to have about 200 nuclear warheads.

But to help seal the deal, he also encouraged Washington to offer security guarantees to Tehran as a further enticement for it to give up its nuclear ambition

5676. jexster - 5/11/2005 10:40:37 AM

BIG BUSH VICTORY!
North Korea Ends Nuke Fuel Extraction

5677. jexster - 5/11/2005 11:41:04 AM

Tales of Toxic George
Poodle Blair's Incurable Case of the Mange

LONDON (Reuters) - Britain's Prime Minister Tony Blair urged his restive Labour party on Wednesday to unite behind him after a third straight election victory, but he failed to silence critics who want him to resign early.

Growing disillusionment with Blair, especially over his handling of the Iraq war, cost his center-left party more than half its majority in last week's election.

That has sparked calls from some within Labour for Blair, who has said he will serve a full term of four or five years but not stand again, to quit sooner rather than later.

5678. PelleNilsson - 5/11/2005 11:59:32 AM

Many observers think Blair will quit after the referendum on the European constitution which will take place next year, probably in the spring.

5679. alistairconnor - 5/12/2005 3:51:40 AM

... which will not take place at all if we vote No in France.

Fascinating : there is intense debate going on. Every Wednesday, I have dinner with a close friend and we discuss the subject passionately until the wine runs out. It seems that Europe is leaving the debate to us : the result will be quite influential, and nobody can say which way it'll go.

With typical French arrogance, Chirac said a week or so ago that the EU constitution was a continuation of the revolution of 1789. Personally I've always thought that 1789 was the beginning of the European, rather than just French, revolution, so I find the idea pleasing.

The problem is, the treaty is a crappy one. The process of writing it was badly designed, and the result is undemocratic : the power stays in the hands of the national governing classes, who are not accountable except within their national frameworks.

What we need to do is to elect a European Constituent Assembly, for the express purpose of writing a decent constitution. This of course is hopelessly utopian.

The nay-sayers (the pro-European ones of the left, in any case) claim that they believe a French "no" will shake things up, kick-start a pan-European democracy movement, face down the Big Capital backers of the crappy treaty, and lead to a substantially better rewrite.

If I believed that this would happen, I would enthusiastically vote No.

5680. jexster - 5/12/2005 9:20:40 AM

Surat Al-Waq`ia

Afghan Riots Over US Desecration of Holy Qur'an Aimed at Pakistan

5681. jexster - 5/12/2005 12:24:00 PM

Poodle With Mange
A special relationship gone sour

Tony Blair wouldn't come clean about his deep problems with the Bush team, making him look furtive and dishonest. And he paid the price at the polls.

5682. PelleNilsson - 5/13/2005 10:27:22 AM

In see that France is doing away with the day after Pentecost as a public holiday. By an odd coincidence the same thing happens here but in oour case the holiday will be transferred to June 6, Sweden's national day which will now become more "official" than it has been.

I'm totally opposed to that. June 6 is a product of the unsound nationalism that prevailed all over Europe in the latter half of the 19th century, that caused so much harm then and continues to plague us today. Moreover, it is not tied to any decisive event that shaped Sweden as a nation for the simple reason that there isn't any.

The ceremonies are cloyingly sweet, an orgy in folkloristics traditions which themselves are largely 19th century contructs, culminating here in Stockholm with the king handing out flags to selected "deserving" organizations. It is all so disgusting.

5683. wonkers2 - 5/13/2005 10:54:02 AM

Curious. I think of the Swedes as being more modern and ratinonal.

5684. PelleNilsson - 5/13/2005 11:08:05 AM

Yes. After WWII nationalism lost its lustre after having been perverteed by the Nazis and June 6 retreated into near obscurity. When I grew up and long after it was seen as a rather odd thing. That is why I am worried and angry about this neo-nationalism.

5685. PelleNilsson - 5/13/2005 11:48:55 AM

Talking about national days the Norwegian one - May 17 - is coming up. It is a very big thing there. They celebrate May 17 1814 when they adopted their own constitution and elected their own king after 400 years of union with Denmark. A couple of months later the Swedish army marched in and claimed the country in accordance with the terms of the Vienna Congress. So back into the darkness for the Norwegians. This year - I think I have mentioned this before - marks the 100th anniverserary of the peaceful dissolution of the union so the celebrations will be extra large, not least here in Stockholm where many Norwegians live.

5686. jexster - 5/13/2005 1:01:54 PM

Easy to see how the resurgence of hard nationalism in the US freaks Euros out so.

5687. jexster - 5/13/2005 1:02:40 PM

Qur'an Riots: Anti-American Violence Spreads Across Afghanistan, Spills Over Into Pakistan

5688. robertjayb - 5/13/2005 2:53:21 PM

French making babies...Lots of them...(The Independent)

(13 May 2005)

France is on track to become, once again, the most populous nation in western Europe, overtaking Germany and outdistancing Britain.

According to demographic calculations announced yesterday by the French government, a booming birth rate and high longevity should push the population of France to 75 million by the year 2050.

On present trends, the British population will remain close to its existing figure of 60 million. The German population is expected to fall from 82 million to 70 million and Italy - which has a very low birth rate - from 57 million to 43 million.

If confirmed in the coming years, those demographic trends will have a profound impact on European politics. From the Middle Ages to the early 19th century, France was the most populous country in western Europe. It was overtaken by the future Germany in the mid 19th century and matched by Britain by the early 1900s.

5689. alistairConnor - 5/13/2005 3:05:16 PM

Essentially a matter of social engineering.

An apparently trivial detail :

In France, schools take complete charge of children from (roughly) 8am to 4.30 pm. Lunch is organised.

In Germany, someone's got to organise lunch and care for the child, in the middle of the day. Guess who that is?

This is obviously not the sole factor, but : 50% of German women choose not to have children.

5690. concerned - 5/13/2005 3:54:16 PM

More cannon fodder for the next equivalent of the Sun King or Napoleon is what I think.

5691. alistairConnor - 5/13/2005 4:07:45 PM

Yeah right.

The next European war is going to be provoked by the French.

Yeah.
Right.

5692. alistairConnor - 5/13/2005 4:09:46 PM

It's true that the wars organised by Napoleon provoked the demographic apocalypse from which France is only now recovering.

5693. Marc-Albert - 5/13/2005 7:24:48 PM

Mon dieu! Five consecutive posts here in International without the words "U.S.", "American" or "Bush". Did Jexster call sick?

5694. jexster - 5/14/2005 12:18:35 AM

UR right MA..we should not bother with the inconsquential hegemon and its wacked cowboy crusader...I have reformed....

Give the New Europe and our Great Northern Satellite a voice around here.

But hey....more Germany/France/Russia, less Sweden/Norway..there's inconsequential and then there's irrelevant..I mean who would die for Danzig anyway?

5695. robertjayb - 5/15/2005 10:57:51 AM

Hundreds dead in Uzbek uprising...(AP)

FERGANA, Uzbekistan May 15, 2005 — Groups of attackers killed several soldiers in eastern Uzbekistan on Sunday before fleeing across the border into Kyrgyzstan, villagers said, and about 500 bodies were laid out in the nearby city where troops fired on a crowd of protesters, a doctor said.

Residents' accounts of the fighting in Tefektosh could not be independently confirmed, but blood stains were visible on the pavement there.

The village is in the same region as Andijan, where troops fired on a crowd of protesters Friday to put down an uprising, killing hundreds, witnesses said. On Sunday, about 500 bodies were laid out in rows in Andijan's School No. 15, a doctor in the town said.

5696. jexster - 5/18/2005 12:29:06 AM

Galloway Gives Bush's Gang of Thugs Both Barrels

View Highlights
[or the entire bloody mayhem Proudly Brought to Your Via the BBC World Service..

Their Washington correspondent on the evening telecast was busting gut to maintain control

"After Galloway's pummeling the browbeaten Senators were left with only one lame line of questionning"

"Today Galloway delivered a lesson in democracy to the US Senate, the heights that are possible only when practitioners take it seriously"

WARNING: This Video Contains Highly Disturbing Scenes of Graphic Violence

George Galloway had vowed to give US senators "both barrels" and after sitting - coiled - through an hour-and-half of testimony against him, he unloaded all his ammunition.

Far from displaying the forelock-tugging deference to which senators are accustomed, Mr Galloway went on the attack.

He rubbished committee chairman Norm Coleman's dossier of evidence and stared him in the eye.

"Now I know that standards have slipped over the last few years in Washington, but for a lawyer, you are remarkably cavalier with any idea of justice," the MP declared.

The whole room scanned Mr Coleman's face for a reaction. The senator shifted in his seat - nervously it seemed.

It was the first time a British politician had been interrogated as a hostile witness at the US Senate - but Mr Galloway cast himself not as the accused, but the accuser.

On stage at the heart of American power, he attacked the US-led war on Iraq and accused Washington of installing a "puppet" regime there.

5697. jexster - 5/18/2005 1:38:32 AM

Braveheart the Sequel
Stewart of Galloway Tartan
Daniel Le Who?

Die Stewarts, spätere schottische Monarchen, stammen von einer Familie ab, die Stewards (Verwalter) in Dol in der Bretagne waren. Sie erwarben nach der normannischen Eroberung Ländereien in England, und Walter Flaad, der Steward, zog nach der Thronbesteigung Davids I. nach Schottland. Er wurde zum Steward von Schottland ernannt und erhielt großflächige Ländereien in Renfrewshire und East Lothian.

5698. Macnas - 5/18/2005 2:59:24 AM

I heard some of the Galloway hearing on the wireless, very entertaining.

5699. alistairconnor - 5/18/2005 4:18:22 AM

Yes he was very stirring. Gave them a bollocking.

Galloway won his libel case against the Telegraph -- it doesn't look like the Senate has anything more solid against him.

5700. Macnas - 5/18/2005 5:44:51 AM

I'm not up to speed on all the facts of this issue, but it would seem that Galloway has more than a leg to stand on than his accusers.

What is more interesting to me is the manner in which he took the senators by surprise. It was as if they expected him to say "yes, no, plead the 5th". What kind of cocoon do U.S. senators live in, I wonder.
Or am I being unfair?

I read somewhere that soccer is unpopular in the U.S. due to its relatively unstructured anarchic play.
Is it the case that U.S. political systems are as different from british/euro systems as soccer is to american football??

5701. jexster - 5/18/2005 11:37:07 AM

Charlie Rose on PBS had a coup last night..he had Galloway on...He was still rolling! Charlie on PBS isn't exactly the top charts on news ratings..which means that the media didn't think much or know much about Galloway..in fact, Rose also had the WaPo reporter who coveres the Oil for food and he warned committee staff and Lyncher Coleman exactly what Galloway would do because he did it in the Telegraph trial..

They didn't listen...and Coleman was beat like a drum..he was chastened little mouse "I was just trying to make a record"

BULLSHIT as anyone who has seen his vitriolic McCarthyesque appearances promoting his circus would know right off

He cut Coleman's balls off and made him eat em - in front of an international audience

I hope the Democrats were taking notes

Sorry ass bunch of wimps

5702. jexster - 5/21/2005 8:56:51 AM

Sweden makes the front page of WaPo!

New Swedish Documents Illuminate CIA Action
Probe Finds 'Rendition' Of Terror Suspects Illegal

STOCKHOLM -- The CIA Gulfstream V jet touched down at a small airport west of here just before 9 p.m. on a subfreezing night in December 2001. A half-dozen agents wearing hoods that covered their faces stepped down from the aircraft and hurried across the tarmac to take custody of two prisoners, suspected Islamic radicals from Egypt.

Inside an airport police station, Swedish officers watched as the CIA operatives pulled out scissors and rapidly sliced off the prisoners' clothes, including their underwear, according to newly released Swedish government documents and eyewitness statements. They probed inside the men's mouths and ears and examined their hair before dressing the pair in sweat suits and draping hoods over their heads. The suspects were then marched in chains to the plane, where they were strapped to mattresses on the floor in the back of the cabin.

5703. jexster - 5/21/2005 8:43:48 PM

South Korea Rebuffs US War Plan

5704. concerned - 5/23/2005 10:13:31 AM

Newsflash from jexster's fave theocracy: 'Saudi Council Shelves Debate on Women's Driving Ban'

Here we have jexster aligning himself with the most socially repressive regimes in the world in his hysterical attempts to take swipes at US conservatives.

5705. PelleNilsson - 5/23/2005 10:26:59 AM

He does? Where?

5706. jexster - 5/23/2005 11:15:05 AM

That's news to me.

I think maybe we should send in Bushies Imperial Legions or what's left of them to Take the "Saud" Out of Arabia

Oh but wait a minute, I thought the Saudis were part of that Baghdad Spring I was supposed to be eating my hat over.

Sort of like Uzbekistan, where Bush is allied with the most socially repressive regime in the world

Boy keeping up with the Bush-Shit can leave a reality based community citizen very confused.

5707. jexster - 5/23/2005 11:18:39 AM

Maybe we oughta have free elections!

OOOPs then we get Hizbollah, Hamas, Al Qaeda, the Muslim Brotherhood, Muqtada the Mediator Sadr..

OOOO a better idea - let's start on the West Bank move up through Lebanon while launching armored thrusts into Iran, Pakistan, and the Gulf States..clean out the whole mess in the 11th Crusade!

Of course, that would leave our rear vulnerable to the democratically elected government in Egypt..

Damn I am stumped

5708. jexster - 5/23/2005 11:25:03 AM

God Knows I Really Shouldn't

But you see I am not. I just take swipes that the Bush TheoFascists, the so-called "neo conservatives".

Genuine conservatives are my natural allies here.

It is only the wacko ideologues that I have a problem with, that the country has a problem with.

When Schwartz went to Uzbekistan and produced a flurry of articles hailing the "elections" staged by Karimov as a paradigm of the progress made by Uzbekistan's "young democracy," he noted ruefully that "the Uzbek authorities made extensive preparations to accommodate foreign journalists, who did not show up in substantial numbers."

Perhaps that's because they knew that the whole procedure was just a propaganda exercise staged for foreign consumption, and they didn't want to be a part of Karimov's Potemkin village. Schwartz lent himself to the charade, to his everlasting shame – if he had a sense of shame, which he doesn't. Neither he nor Kristol could care less about Uzbeks, what they have suffered, and what they will no doubt continue to suffer as long as Karimov and his devilish legions retain their hold on the country. Kristol and Schwartz are scheming, lying weasels without a single moral compunction between them, and their reaction to the Andijan atrocity proves it: that is the real nature of their "Uzbek problem
(above)

5709. jexster - 5/23/2005 12:05:29 PM

I have not now nor have I ever been a Saudi Oil Traitor Senator

Bush Meets Saudi Prince at Crawford Ranch

As I said, it is getting harded and harder to keep up with the Bush-Shit around here

Message # 5704

5710. Marc-Albert - 5/23/2005 12:31:31 PM

This place should be renamed "American Politics With An International Flavor"

5711. jexster - 5/23/2005 1:09:27 PM

Unfortunately, thanks to rampant radical right wing ultra-nationalist militarism in the US, the World should be renamed, "US politics by other means"

5712. jexster - 5/23/2005 1:09:52 PM

Not my fault.

The World's problem

5713. concerned - 5/23/2005 2:25:05 PM

Democracy shuts its eyes as Muslim women are enslaved

5714. alistairConnor - 5/23/2005 3:10:43 PM

well, women's rights have taken a huge step backwards in Iraq since the regime change...

Baathist Iraq was the most advanced Arab country in that particular respect, with the possible exception of Tunisia

5715. jexster - 5/23/2005 4:17:39 PM

Mote poll..

Who thinks concerned or Armstrong Williams give a shit about women's rights in the Middle East?

5716. concerned - 5/23/2005 4:20:23 PM

I care about women's rights a lot more than you do, jexster. To prove it, all I need do is mention that you're on record in the Mote opposing the removal of bin Laden & the Taliban by US forces.

Case closed, I'd say.

5717. jexster - 5/23/2005 4:23:11 PM

Well no I am not on record opposing the removal of bin Laden & the Taliban by US forces

In fact I supported it enthusiastically.

If only Bush and his gang had supported it as strongly as I, Osama'd be dead today.

Perfectly fine to vote for yourself.

Next vote?

5718. concerned - 5/23/2005 4:26:31 PM

Come off it, jexster - you never supported anything GWB did, let alone 'enthusiastically'.

5719. jexster - 5/23/2005 4:28:46 PM

Oh yes I did..in fact if you really wanted to embarrass me you'd find the post where I advocated Mongul-like destruction and ruin of the country...

My own little 9/11 ultraviolence

5720. jexster - 5/23/2005 4:29:17 PM

"moment of the" ultraviolence

5721. jexster - 5/23/2005 4:59:37 PM

Little did we know at the time that we'd never have invaded Afghanistan at all had it not been for Tony Blair's insistence that it was a price of British involvement.

You may recall that Chirac was the first to visit DC after 9/11. Blair followed the next day and during their joint departure newsconference, the two were asked whether they'd pledged their nation's support to Bush.

Blair's "absolutely" was met by a curious "anything that defeats Al Qaeda" clarification from Chirac, which Blair seconded.

Looking back, based on what we know now, ie that Bush wanted to invade Iraq not Afghanistan, I wonder whether that colloquy was premised on Blair's deal with Bush which also goes back to 9-10/01

5722. alistairconnor - 5/24/2005 3:23:30 AM

I care about women's rights a lot more than you do, jexster. To prove it, all I need do is mention that you're on record in the Mote opposing the removal of bin Laden & the Taliban by US forces.

OK Mr Women's Lib... I suppose you also opposed the removal of the Communist regime in Afghanistan by guerilla forces?

(the Communist interlude was the only time in Afghan history when women had any meaningful rights)

5723. Marc-Albert - 5/24/2005 6:22:48 AM

(the Communist interlude was the only time in Afghan history when women had any meaningful rights)

An overstatement, to say the least.

I would say the golden age of women in contemporary Afghanistan was during the last couple of decades of the monarchy. I read somewhere that under king Zahir Shah, most students in higher education were women. Certainly most Afghan students in local French-run lycées were women as were most Afghan students in France and elsewhere in Europe. Considerable efforts were made then to modernize the status of women, including by legislation. This effort continued during the early years of the republic, before the Soviet-backed communist coup.

Which probably explains why the ex-king was welcomed so warmly when he returned to Afghanistan after the fall of the Taliban. Had there been a plebiscite, maybe Afghan women would have put him back on his throne....

5724. alistairconnor - 5/24/2005 6:43:41 AM

OK, I stand corrected, M-A.

But that doesn't let Con off the hook.

5725. concerned - 5/24/2005 8:18:42 AM

Sure it does. I don't deal only in extremes, unlike yourself.

5726. concerned - 5/24/2005 8:21:22 AM

Re. 5721 -

Sorry, but your premise is a ludicrous falsehood. There's no way that Britain marginal role enabled US involvement in Afghanistan post-911.

5727. concerned - 5/24/2005 8:22:27 AM

...Britain's...

5728. Magoseph - 5/24/2005 9:08:55 AM

Posted by Reynaldo in ATI

Ali, do you know anything about this man?

5729. alistairconnor - 5/24/2005 9:21:12 AM

yeah, he's going to be president some day.

Spiritual son of Chirac, betrayed him for Balladur in 95, came slinking back into favour, then stole Chirac's party off him... quite an operator.

The conventional wisdom is that Chirac will stand for a third term in 07 (if only to stay out of jail), and he and Sarkozy will slug it out in the first round. I'm betting that it's all a Guignol show : it serves to remove the focus from potential candidates on the left.

He made his mark being a hard-line Law'norder minister of the Interior, appealing to the far right. He's since done a few conjuring tricks as minister of finance, and moderated his appeal, notably by reaching out to Muslim French. A consummate populist, and utterly unscrupulous.

5730. thoughtful - 5/24/2005 9:39:06 AM

so what are the odds of the eu constitution passing?

5731. thoughtful - 5/24/2005 9:39:22 AM

and is it relevant?

5732. PelleNilsson - 5/24/2005 9:56:01 AM

The chances are slim. If it is rejected by one of the lesser countries or even by the UK the situation can possibly be saved with some fudging but not if France says no. The Netherlands which will vote soon also carries a lot of weight being one of the original six. And yes, it is relevant but I would ask alistair to explain why because he knows more about it than I do.

5733. alistairconnor - 5/24/2005 10:00:06 AM

Odds are looking pretty poor from here.

Most of the time I think that's a crying shame. Some of the time I think it'll be fun to kick the anthill and see what happens. But I don't expect anything positive to come out of France rejecting the Treaty.

The political debate has been rich and passionate. People mostly couldn't give a crap six months ago; were interested but wavering, a month ago; and now have strong opinions.

The likely outcome, in my view, is that the constitution will sink without a trace. Technically, that means that Europe will continue to be regulated by the existing mish-mash of multilateral treaties, which are worse than the proposed constitution (bad as that is). In practice, that means that the historic hard core of Europe will continue to intensify their integration... and the new adherents will get short-changed by a general backlash of protectionism. Less trade, less employment, less growth.

The national governments will carry on hammering out opaque compromises in backrooms, and the meagre democratic advances contained in the constitution will be lost.

5734. alistairconnor - 5/24/2005 10:03:51 AM

What I tell people, and it gives them pause (most of my friends are voting no) is that this constitution, shonky compromise as it is, is what the new adherents signed up for. We were happy to let them join us (a historic responsibility, as everyone acknowledges), now we should refuse to live with the consequences? That's reneging on the deal.

The Rumanian plumber is my brother too.

5735. thoughtful - 5/24/2005 10:54:58 AM

Forgive my ignornace...I thought joining the EU put a limit on protectionist actions, no?

5736. PelleNilsson - 5/25/2005 5:16:49 AM

EU is always experiencing some kind of crisis but right now things look ominous. If, as seems likely, France and Holland vote no, the constitution is dead. The long-term budget should have been approved in the next couple of months, but it won't be because Germany has a lame-duck government. If the CDU wins the September elections, also likely, the position of Turkey becomes perilous. Of these things, I personally consider the last one the most threatening. EU can manage for a while with the existing set-up. The present budgetary framework can be extended for a year. But Europe and Turkey need each other. A setback can easily provoke a backlash in Turkey. Lover spurned and all that.

5737. alistairconnor - 5/25/2005 5:26:15 AM

The media in France are supposed to give equal time to both sides of the referendum (the "no" crowd have complained that the "yes" has been getting too much time, this is partly true, due to the nature of the media, and partly paranoia).

My radio station (France Culture), where the commentators are equally divided between yes and (pro-Euro) no, but where the higher-ups presumably are yes men (it's a government station), has taken an interesting tactic : Over the past few days, they've been giving the "No" time to forthright nationalists (their constituency probably makes up somewhat less than half of the overall No vote).

They are frankly pretty scary (today, it was the sinister Charles Pasqua's sidekick). When the "No" wins, it'll become pretty clear that it's their victory.

5738. alistairconnor - 5/25/2005 6:17:02 AM

Mago, I suspect you knew something I didn't know when you were asking about Sarkozy...

It turns out the press is buzzing with rumours about his "conjugal difficulties" with his wife Cécilia. Normally, this would be considered nobody's business in France, and the press wouldn't touch it. However, the Sarkos themselves have, over the last several years, made themselves a high-profile family, as a deliberate political strategy : they have encouraged the press to treat them as movie stars, cute photos of the kids etc... and she runs his office, they're a high-profile political partnership.

It's never been done before in France. So, logically enough, a divorce, or whatever, would be damaging for him politically. A lot of people are beside themselves with joy. Particularly Chirac's clan, who are doing all they can to feed the rumours.

5739. thoughtful - 5/25/2005 7:24:24 AM

understand that i'm a naive american...what does the eu constitution do? how does it help the new-eu countries? Does it formalize a balance of power among the nations? will it create a new army? new budget? new taxing power? and how much subordination of the individual country govts does it require?

5740. alistairconnor - 5/25/2005 7:29:06 AM

Thoughtful : I thought joining the EU put a limit on protectionist actions, no?

In theory, sure. The high-wage economies of Western Europe are shedding jobs in manufacturing -- Italy is now in recession because it's lost competitivity. Rejection of the constitution will generate a powerful backlash: governments will be obliged by their constituents to erect all sorts of barriers, which will contradict the spirit if not the letter of existing EU treaties, in a futile attempt to hold back the tide.

Example : EU regulations have recently changed to facilitate mobility of workers (individual freedoms, yay). EU foreign workers are supposed to pay their social security contributions in their home countries; employers no longer have to declare them to the French authorities, nor to guarantee that these payments are in fact made.

This, in practice, decriminalises the illegal use of cut-rate east European workers in the building trade. There is no way that French labour inspectors can check up on these guys individually, particularly as some EU governments refuse to provide the information, although theoretically obliged to.

This sort of craziness is one of many things pushing people to vote no, and which will create a protectionist and nationalist backlash.

Big step back for Europe, coming right up.

5741. Macnas - 5/25/2005 7:47:23 AM

Just as you're mentioning the building trade, you might recall a while back that we had a short discussion on Turkey and the Turkish workers currently in Ireland en-mass with the company Gama-Tubin.

It turns out that Gama has been ripping off its Turkish workers ever since they set foot in the country. The main union in the country, SIPTU, has taken their case on board and are now officially in dispute with Gama.
The case is with the labour courts as we speak, with full backing from the government I'm happy to say.

Gama is being accused of intimidation of the workers families back in Turkey, while overtime payments have been with-held and diverted to a company bank account in Holland.

5742. thoughtful - 5/25/2005 8:20:04 AM

well europe's big step back was in going for the emu in the first place imho. And their structural rigidities in labor markets are a big part of the problem. productivity growth will solve a lot of problems, but when you can't grow your own domestic demand and your currency is acting against you, and you have no independent fiscal/monetary policy to fix the situation, the only thing that's left to adjust is economic growth...and it's adjusting.

5743. PelleNilsson - 5/25/2005 8:54:25 AM

The EMU is ancient history. It was never a currency anyhow, just an accounting unit like the SDR or the venerable Swiss gold franc. It is the Euro now. What do you mean "no independent fiscal/monetary policy"? There is the European Central Bank and the Stability Pact, the latter sadly violated and softened at the edges but still there.

5744. thoughtful - 5/25/2005 9:09:14 AM

by independent fiscal and monetary policy is one that is responsive independently to each country's need. Right now, Germ is heading into recession which would suggest the ECB should lower interest rates....but it can't/won't lest it fuel even further the Spanish housing bubble.

In the states, we have a single currency which is managed through a flexible labor market...yes americans move to different states to get jobs a lot. Anecdote, to make that point I was in staff meeting and asked a room of about 30 people how many were native to our state and only 3 were. The other area of flexibility to hold the single currency constant is through the tax system. Rich states pay into the federal govt and the feds dish out cash to the poor states, helping to equilibrate economic performance across the states.

In order for the emu to hold together, europe will need similar mechanisms. So far labor markets have been very rigid, and i've not heard much about germans and french happily shipping money to greece to keep it all together.

5745. thoughtful - 5/25/2005 9:11:14 AM

i realize i mistakenly refer to the emu when i should say euro ... i think of euro as being the result of the emu and the emu being the philosophical/economic/political background to the euro.

5746. alistairconnor - 5/25/2005 9:29:21 AM

Damn, I think you may be right about the euro.

In fact, I suspect that the economic interests that have been the most powerful lobbies driving Euro-integration, expected that monetary union would force labour-market flexibility. And that is in fact happening, mobility is increasing, but fundamentally most Europeans aren't all that mobile.

With respect to wealth transfer, historically there's been a fair amount of that, but it's been restricted precisely because of the huge needs of the new entrants. I expect that this will be the major sticking point in the future, because the stupid Constitution does not accord to the European parliament the right to levy taxes. Representation without taxation : a pantomime of democracy, no real power.

5747. Marc-Albert - 5/25/2005 11:53:44 AM

For a Canadian, the EU is federalism upside down: foreign affairs, war & peace, taxation, are left to the states while the central organs in Brussels legislate on just about every local, everyday matters you can think of, such as the number of hours an Irishman, Pole, Maltese, Swede must spend at a driving school before being granted a drivers permit by the local authorities.

5748. jexster - 5/25/2005 12:19:17 PM

US Gift to Al Qaeda - Asia Times

5749. PelleNilsson - 5/25/2005 12:57:41 PM

The EU is not a federal entity, nor would it become so under the new constitution.

Your story about driving schools is just another of the EU myths that circulate, like the one about the alleged rules defining the permitted bending radius of bananas. Here in Sweden it is perfectly possible for a young person to be taught to drive by a relative or a friend and then proceed to the examination.

5750. jexster - 5/25/2005 1:03:02 PM

bin Laden and al-Zawahiri overestimated the reaction of the Arab street. They didn't understand that the average Arab living in the Middle East - or in Western Europe - may indeed express a lot of grievances toward US foreign policy, but this did not translate into solid, political mobilization. If it ever happened, political activity would be set off by events in Palestine and Iraq - Arab, and not Islamic, problems. Thus, sensationally plunging Boeings-turned-into-missiles into the heart of the American power elite did not show the Promised Land to the alienated masses.

The "war on terror" - the American response to al-Qaeda - was a meaningless metaphor in the first place because al-Qaeda essentially poses a security problem. It is not a strategic threat. At least it was not until its recent mutation - after Guantanamo, the invasion of Iraq and the Abu Ghraib scandal. ...So if al-Qaeda is winning Muslim hearts and minds, the Bush administration has only itself to blame. Considering all the "clash of civilizations" rhetoric and a "war on terror" bound to last indefinitely, as Vice President Dick Cheney himself said on the record, it may have been the original intent anyway.

5751. PelleNilsson - 5/25/2005 1:06:08 PM

jexster, I hate to say this, but we have a ME thread specifically created for that kind of stuff.

5752. wonkers2 - 5/25/2005 2:10:49 PM

Somebody told me that Germany requires a test and license to operate a sailboat.

5753. thoughtful - 5/25/2005 4:14:49 PM

Pelle, would the new constitution create such a federal entity though?

5754. jexster - 5/25/2005 7:24:48 PM

Sorry Pelle, I was posting so fast I didn't where I wuz for a second.

The paper's from Hong Kong if that counnts

5755. jexster - 5/25/2005 8:39:54 PM

EU Dominates French Conversations

5756. PelleNilsson - 5/25/2005 11:22:57 PM

No, the EU will continue to be mainly a multilateral entity made up of sovereign states. The term "new constitution" is really too dramatic in my view. It is a question of relatively modest modifications of EU's governance in order to accommodate the expansion with ten new member states. So what's all the fuzz about, you ask. So do I.

5757. Macnas - 5/26/2005 1:10:11 AM

Me too.

5758. alistairconnor - 5/26/2005 3:01:38 AM

Yeah but the debate is fascinating...

Chirac could have put the treaty to parliament for ratification, there would have been relatively little debate, it would have passed easily

But he wanted to divide the left, and he has certainly succeeded in that. Generally, people see it as a split between reformists and revolutionaries -- that's putting it a bit strongly, but the left-wing "no" is powerfully driven by utopian ideals. The major sticking point, the visceral refusal, is the fact that the principle of a free-market economy is enshrined in the constitution. I see this as incongruous, but basically harmless. Many are unwilling to abandon the old dream of collective ownership of everything; others believe that this provision will force us to privatise health, education, cradles, graves, and everything in between.

So the whole left is hugely energized, and strongly mobilized, largely against each other...

The corpse of the Communist party has gained new vigour, ably led by the excellent Marie-Georges Buffet; they, at least, are unanimous. The Socialist party is split right up the middle, some say it won't survive. The Greens likewise are pretty much 50-50, but we're used to being at each other's throats, we'll get over it.

Where Chirac miscalculated, of course, is that he was banking on a Yes vote. His place in history is now assured; it won't be the Iraq war that he'll be remembered for.

5759. PelleNilsson - 5/26/2005 3:18:51 AM

The problem with referendums is that you know which question you ask but you don't know which one the voters answer.

5760. alistairconnor - 5/26/2005 4:31:25 AM

To be fair : There was the usual worry about people saying No to Chirac, or to Raffarin (the evanescent prime minister), i.e. general discontent or national issues colouring the result.

There really appears to be very little of that. People are arguing about the text of the constitution itself. Of course nobody's actually read it -- I challenge anyone to do so. The problem is, the thing is chock full of carefully-crafted ambiguities; so, like the Bible, you can get it to say anything you want basically.

5761. Marc-Albert - 5/26/2005 5:09:59 AM

I was laughing my head out when I read that the French gov't ordered the printing and distribution of millions of copies of the proposed constitution to each and every Frenchman and Frenchwoman of 18 and over.

Thousands of trees were sacrificed for nothing, keeping in mind that the French, despite their reputation for intellectualism, read less newspapers and books than the average West European.

5762. alistairconnor - 5/26/2005 5:13:19 AM

Newspapers, sure. Books? Where do you get your numbers? That strikes me as unlikely.

5763. Marc-Albert - 5/26/2005 5:44:07 AM

5764. Marc-Albert - 5/26/2005 6:01:47 AM

Chirac counts on jungle tribes to swing EU vote
MATTHEW CAMPBELL, PARIS

AMONG the Wayampi Indians it is not uncommon for children to give birth at 10 and become grandparents in their twenties. They hunt and fish in red loincloths. Their favourite food is smoked alligator. They are also among Europe’s most civic-minded citizens.

Britain has the Pitcairn islands and the Dutch have West Indian Curaçao, but these cannot compete with the impressive French portfolio of dominions around the globe from the Pacific to the Amazon jungle.

Their 1.4m voters could swing the result in the closely fought May 29 French referendum on the European Union’s constitution and determine the future of Europe, not to mention influence the timing of Tony Blair’s departure from No 10.

The Wayampi do not know him but excitement was building last week at the prospect of playing their part in the politics of the palan isi lena, or the “land of the white man”, as Europe is known.

Many speak only rudimentary French and have little understanding of qualified majority voting, but an election is always a welcome occasion for a gathering in this alligator-infested corner of French Guiana in South America.

They will watch Joseph Chanel, their leader, in fascination as he slips a red, white and blue French mayoral sash over his tribal tunic to supervise voting. Copies of the constitution, shipped at considerable expense on Air France from Paris, and then by helicopter and canoe up the river from Cayenne, the distant capital, will come in handy for wrapping tapir meat and lighting fires.

“We are European citizens,” said Chanel, a renowned Wayampi hunter, on a visit to Cayenne. “It is an obligation for us Wayampi to vote.”

In Cayenne, a rickety town by the sea, they drive Citroëns and visit internet cafes. Civilisation has gradually taken root since the brutal days of the former French penal colony depicted in the book and film Papillon.

But how free and fair an election will they hold in the Amazon? Or, for that matter, in the Wallis and Futuna islands in the Pacific, where three kings rule by fiat? So narrow was the victory of the “yes” camp — 540,000 votes — in the 1992 referendum on the Maastricht Treaty, which paved the way for the euro, that it prompted unsubstantiated rumours of skulduggery in the “Dom Toms”, as the overseas “departments” and “territories” are known. Suspicions arose partly because the “yes” vote there averaged 70%, far higher than in France.

This time it could be just as close. According...

5765. PelleNilsson - 5/26/2005 6:07:26 AM

So you laughed your head off at the idea that the French government ought to make the text of the constitution available to those who are going to vote on it? That is an interesting position.

5766. Marc-Albert - 5/26/2005 6:09:42 AM

Sorry about the double post. Don't know what happened.

5767. Marc-Albert - 5/26/2005 6:18:44 AM

As AC says, "nobody's actually read it", and the gov't knew that. But ordering its distribution to all the chaumières of the Realm was typically a dramatic, if hollow, Gallic gesture.

5768. Dubai Vol - 5/26/2005 6:23:08 AM

Gee Pelle, the text IS available, online, I have downloaded it myself. Nobody is keeping it secret. Point is that most people will make up their minds based on what OTHER PEOPLE tell them about the text. Sad, really, not laughable.

It cuts to the core of the fallacy of universal suffrage IMO. Ignorant masses voting on the basis of what they have been told by media, politicians, and pundits, without taking the time or making the effort to really understand the issue.

5769. alistairconnor - 5/26/2005 6:41:49 AM

Ah so that's what your years in Dubai have taught you. Democracy is a Bad Thing.

That certainly makes your opinions a bit easier to understand, Vol...

5770. alistairconnor - 5/26/2005 6:44:43 AM

... or maybe it was your years in Tennessee that taught you that??

Let's start by taking the vote off the women, then we could re-introduce the property franchise.

5771. thoughtful - 5/26/2005 6:50:40 AM

so when I talk to a group of europeans next week, i should put the constitution down as unlikely to pass, but don't worry about it anyway.

5772. alistairconnor - 5/26/2005 7:06:38 AM

Personally I consider that this referendum in France is about the finest example of democracy that I have experienced.

The text itself is unreadable, but that's a side-issue. I haven't read the bible, I haven't read the Da Vinci code, I've got opinions on both. I learn more by reading the analyses of the constitution by erudite people whose political position I know, than I can learn by reading the document itself.

It's a shame they couldn't produce a clear and simple constitution, but it's not surprising.

5773. Dubai Vol - 5/26/2005 7:12:13 AM

Actually, Alistair, you are not far wrong. Look up the UAE in the CIA fact book. Suffrage: none. I found that rather shocking when I first read it. But after living here for a while I realised that giving people here the vote would result in a theocratic Islamic state. Compared to the relatively liberal, tolerant government that the UAE has, democracy WOULD be a bad thing IMO.

In America, voters are stampeded to vote against their own self-interest by a combination of cynical politicians' propaganda and ignorance. That is what I find sad.

Given a choice between enlightened despotism and cynical oligarchy, give me the enlightened despot every time.

Maybe it's time you considered the possibility that your democracy has produced a bad result in terms of who has power and what they are using it for. The GOP is raping the planet, the working class, and even the middle class.

I'm not saying that democracy is in itself bad, i am saying that the American model is a democratic failure, and the people, through their willful ignorance, are at least partly responsible.

Ans as always, I am happy to entertain the idea that i am wrong. Above all I want to have a friendly discussion. gee am I boring!

5774. Dubai Vol - 5/26/2005 7:17:21 AM

I haven't read the bible, I haven't read the Da Vinci code, I've got opinions on both. I learn more by reading the analyses of the constitution by erudite people whose political position I know, than I can learn by reading the document itself

Alistair, I have to call you on this. You're a smart guy. Basing your opinions on second-hand information is just intellectual laziness. If you can't be bothered to read the original text and form your own opinion then you really don't have any right to an opinion. Or a vote. JMO

5775. Dubai Vol - 5/26/2005 7:17:57 AM

toys

5776. Dubai Vol - 5/26/2005 7:18:58 AM

little help here?

5777. Dubai Vol - 5/26/2005 7:19:20 AM

ah, sorry

5778. alistairconnor - 5/26/2005 7:43:23 AM

Basing your opinions on second-hand information is just intellectual laziness.

So you're a do-it-yourself man, Dube? You grow your own food? You make your own clothes? No?

Lazy, Dube.

5779. Dubai Vol - 5/26/2005 7:43:28 AM

And Alistair, I am a little disappointed that you jump to the conclusion that my disillusionment with democracy is racist and sexist. Both are unfair and unjustified. But I forgive you.

5780. Dubai Vol - 5/26/2005 7:50:27 AM

Re 5778: arguing by alanlogy os a slippery thing, Alistair. I have an hour here and there to read and think, I don't have all day every day to grow my own food, and in fact it would be a terrible waste of resources. As an engineer I can contribute a lot more to society by designing machines than I would by growing my own food. The latter benefits only me, the former benefits many. Plus it gives me the time learn enough to make INFORMED decisions when I vote.

Once again, I enjoy friendly constructive discussion, I see no benefit in sniping and trying to score empty points with cheap debating tactics.

Yer pal, Dubai Vol :)

5781. judithathome - 5/26/2005 8:02:13 AM

In America, voters are stampeded to vote against their own self-interest by a combination of cynical politicians' propaganda and ignorance. That is what I find sad.

Given a choice between enlightened despotism and cynical oligarchy, give me the enlightened despot every time.

Maybe it's time you considered the possibility that your democracy has produced a bad result in terms of who has power and what they are using it for. The GOP is raping the planet, the working class, and even the middle class.

I'm not saying that democracy is in itself bad, i am saying that the American model is a democratic failure, and the people, through their willful ignorance, are at least partly responsible.

Amen, brother!

5782. alistairconnor - 5/26/2005 8:03:16 AM

I don't believe I mentioned race, Dube... I mentioned two categories of arbitrary disenfranchisement, based on sex and wealth, that have been practiced in our common democratic heritage. My point is, once you start disenfranchising people, one criterion is as good (bad) as another. What do you want exactly, an IQ franchise?

5783. Macnas - 5/26/2005 8:11:06 AM

"disenfranchisement".

That is a very big word indeed.

5784. alistairconnor - 5/26/2005 8:18:23 AM

I don't have all day every day to grow my own food, and in fact it would be a terrible waste of resources.

Everyone has their own priorities. The universe is too big to fit inside my head, I'm happy to sub-contract some of my thinking. Especially the boring stuff. Reading and analysing that treaty is no fun; listening to other people discussing it on the radio while I drive to work can be quite entertaining.

5785. alistairconnor - 5/26/2005 8:20:12 AM

Allegedly, the longest word in the French language is

anticonstitutionnellement

5786. Magoseph - 5/26/2005 8:39:29 AM

Mago, I suspect you knew something I didn't know when you were asking about Sarkozy...

Thanks much for the info, Ali.

5787. judithathome - 5/26/2005 8:45:47 AM

Long English word: antidisestablishmentarianism

5788. Macnas - 5/26/2005 8:47:22 AM

Sounds like something Stalin would make up in order to have someone shot.

5789. PelleNilsson - 5/26/2005 8:50:22 AM

I could say, Dubai, that I'm surprised and disappointed by your position on universal suffrage. But in fact I think it quite funny.

"Dubai goes to the UAE and finds that the whole concept of western democracy is a fallacy."

Hahaha!

5790. Dubai Vol - 5/26/2005 9:47:32 AM

Pelle, actually I moved to Dubai BECAUSE I had become disgusted with the farce that passes for democracy in the US. I was tired of PAYING for a government that not only didn't represent me but oppressed me, and hearing that "if you don't like it vote to change it!" I spent 20 years voting to change it, and working to change it, only to find that the system is stacked against people like me and uses the excuse that "you can vote to change it" to justify its oppression. So I left. Now I live under a dictator, and while I don't like some of the laws here, at least nobody is lying to me that if I don't like it I can change it. It's not true here and it's not true in the US.

At least here I don't pay taxes, so at least I am not paying for my own oppression. And truth be told I am more free in Dubai than in the US. Excuse me while I get another tax-free beer: Grolsch, $3.19/6 :)

5791. thoughtful - 5/26/2005 10:50:44 AM

Then there's: pseudopseudohypoparathyroidism

5792. PelleNilsson - 5/26/2005 12:52:21 PM

I could easily top that because except for English, the Germanic languages have no upper limit to how many words can be tacked together. A word like 'knifesharpeningtoolholdermaker' is entirely possible. The construct is not much used now but a century ago it was not uncommon. I one came across 'gelbgjutaremästersvenänka' meaning the widow of the foreman at a brass forgery. 'Ångfartygskaptensuniformskräddare' is also good: a tailor that specialises in unforms for steamship captains.

5793. thoughtful - 5/26/2005 1:10:25 PM

then there's the welsh

LLANFAIRPWLLGWYNGYLLGOGERYCHWYRNDROBWLLLLANTYSILIOGOGOGOCH is according to one source the longest placename in the world, with 58 letters. It is a town in North Wales meaning "St. Mary's Church in the hollow of the white hazel near to the rapid whirlpool of Llantysilio of the red cave" or "St. Mary's (Church) by the white aspen over the whirlpool, and St. Tysilio's (Church) by the red cave" in Welsh.

5794. PelleNilsson - 5/26/2005 1:24:07 PM

One wonders how 'WLLGWYNGYLLG' is pronounced.

5795. alistairConnor - 5/26/2005 1:27:12 PM

I suspect it's 'PWLLGWYNGYLL' that one pronounces.

W and Y are both vowels. the LL is more of an expectoration.

5796. thoughtful - 5/26/2005 1:36:56 PM

sigh...when we talk languages, i think of irving...

5797. jexster - 5/26/2005 1:40:30 PM

Josh Marshall is starting a mega blog "TPM Cafe"

It will have a foreign policy section hosted by

Daniel Benjamin of the Center for Strategic and International Studies,
Ivo Daalder of Brookings,
John Ikenberry of Princeton University,
James Lindsay of the Council on Foreign Relations,
George Packer of The New Yorker ad Anne-Marie Slaughter, Dean of the Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs.

5798. arkymalarky - 5/26/2005 6:26:24 PM

Wow, this is where I should have looked for dog name suggetions.

DV,
Given a choice between enlightened despotism and cynical oligarchy, give me the enlightened despot every time.

Given the thread, I will refrain from remarking on the fabulous irony of this statement and those following, considering your reasoning for casting a vote for the very American party and its leader you castigate in here. Not only do you have a false choice, the unfortunate problem with despots is that people don't have the luxury of living under only enlightened ones. In those cases the cynical oligarchy is probably better.

5799. concerned - 5/26/2005 10:19:23 PM

"disenfranchisement".

That is a very big word indeed.

antidisenfranchisementalism

Bigger yet, and I just made it up:)

5800. concerned - 5/26/2005 10:22:55 PM

I suspect it's 'PWLLGWYNGYLL' that one pronounces.

W and Y are both vowels. the LL is more of an expectoration.

And the phonetic spelling is.....?

5801. concerned - 5/26/2005 10:27:04 PM

Here's another one I made up that makes reference to the salient characteristics of an erstwhile Mote-skull:

'pseudopseudoerasmushyperignoranusalism'

5802. concerned - 5/26/2005 10:28:29 PM

Btw, an 'ignoranus' is both ignorant and an asshole.

5803. Macnas - 5/27/2005 1:55:40 AM

Well, that Welsh placename was made up to attract tourists.
As for how it sounds, the "LL" in welsh sounds like a spitting "CH", so give that a go...

5804. Macnas - 5/27/2005 1:56:01 AM

Con,

Very Joycean of you.

5805. Magoseph - 5/29/2005 1:39:54 PM

I just talked to my brother and his wife and he told me that the turn-out is heavy and that he and most of the people he knows voted 'non". The polls are open until ten in Lyon and Paris.

5806. alistairConnor - 5/29/2005 1:41:10 PM

Here we go...

In twenty minutes, the last polling places will close, and they will announce the exit polls on TV.

I voted at midday, in my little village, good humour and no politics. I think the result will be very close : the last opinion polls gave the NON several points ahead, I think it'll be closer than that, but I won't predict which way it's gone... stay tuned.

5807. Magoseph - 5/29/2005 2:02:22 PM

Will let us know, please, about the exit polls?

5808. alistairConnor - 5/29/2005 2:04:51 PM

Well, I have an infallible instinct for being wrong in my predictions.

It wasn't a photo finish :

Oui 45%
Non 55%

Now the fun really starts...

5809. alistairConnor - 5/29/2005 2:09:55 PM

High turnout, over 70%.

80% of workers, 60% of salaried people voted no. A victory for the generous unstructured left, and for the reactionary nationalists. They are not compatible : this result doesn't give Chirac a mandate to re-negotiate.

As I have said, I would be really excited about all this if I thought there was a snowflake's chance of re-writing a better Constitution.

5810. Magoseph - 5/29/2005 2:24:05 PM

Thank you, Ali.

5811. Marc-Albert - 5/29/2005 2:26:32 PM

But those figures are estimates, I wonder what the final count will be.

5812. jexster - 5/29/2005 9:10:56 PM

Allons AC's de la patrie
Le jour de gloire est arrive....

5813. jexster - 5/29/2005 9:11:16 PM

5814. Macnas - 5/30/2005 1:15:04 AM

A resounding "non".

Back to the drawing board I'd say. The Dutch don't sound too keen and the Brits will vote against it if they get the chance, just because it's about Europe.

It'd be interesting to see what the old sov-blok nations think about the French vote.

5815. alistairconnor - 5/30/2005 3:14:18 AM

I guess that they have their national equivalents of the French expressions about people spitting in the collective soup, or shitting in their cooking pots, which they will employ with heartfelt vigour.

I mean, what were we thinking? Us French?

The problem is that we had this magnificent French debate about Europe; it wasn't a debate of Europeans in France. There is no notion of ourselves as Europeans; of how other Europeans see us; or of how, in our various social and political sub-groups, we are part of supranational, Europe-wide categories.

I felt European long before I felt French. Now, I'm so French that I have no idea how it feels to be European.

5816. Macnas - 5/30/2005 5:48:12 AM

Join the club.

But no, I feel that one has to have two mind sets, or two hats (one for thinking, one for shitting in?).

All politics is local, as the man said, but trying to balance what is good politics for you locally, and what is good politics for Europe as a whole, is very difficult.

5817. jexster - 5/30/2005 9:16:00 AM

I interviewed a local poverty activist for my thesis a couple of weeks ago.

The man has, for what little it seems to be worth, a national rep in that policy community and is extremely bright if a little unbalanced..

Cutting to the chase, I don't know who mentioned it first, "all politics is local" is bullshit of the power class. Keeping politics local is a balkanizing tactic of the corporate power structure.

That observation is penetrating of US politics probably more so than for Europe because we have a federal structure in which the national government acts very much that way with regard to state and local units..but I think it might be applicable in Europe too especially given the growing I think backlash against globalization....saw a BBC thing on german workers and their ever unter eastern problem

5818. Macnas - 5/30/2005 9:26:37 AM

I think my version of local politics, and your interviewee's, would be quite different. Indeed, alistairs version would be different again.

The "backlash against globalisation", well, that too is very localised, or more correctly the politics of it are.
A French farmer is concerned about his own crop/stock economics, and if he can co-operate with, say, a big corporation, as some farmers do, to get the best price he will, no matter who they may be or how global they are.

He will react to things negatively if he thinks it will affect his margin. So hyperbole about the hordes from the east is going to make him unhappy.

I know it's a very simplistic example, but for the most part, those who go out on the street demonstrating against globalisation have nothing in common with the likes of that farmer, or me. It's more to do with being an activist, or a revolutionary, or a chance to get back at Macdonald’s for serving you a short order of fries by breaking their window.

5819. alistairconnor - 5/31/2005 3:10:37 AM

Today, the domestic fallout of the referendum begins.

Basically, Chirac is on his knees. On his own terms, he has just committed the biggest, or perhaps second biggest, mistake of his political career (the other being the snap election of 1997).

The Prime Minister, Jean-Pierre Raffarin, is clearing his desk. We'll have a new one before the eight o'clock news. Chirac spent yesterday interviewing candidates.

Chirac wants to pick Dominique de Villepin -- but he has very little support among the right wing majority in Parliament; and the political message with Villepin would be "more of the same".

Surprisingly, Nicolas Sarkozy is also in the running. I can't imagine why he would want the job. Currently, he has Chirac by the balls : he could sit tight, controlling the UMP (Chirac's party), then inherit the right-wing nomination for the presidential elections in 2007. If Chirac should wish to run for a third term, as is generally thought, Sarkozy would blow him out of the water in the first round.

In recent years, being Prime Minister in the lead-up to the presidentials has been the kiss of death for candidates : Balladur and Jospin both illustrated that. Sarkozy evidently thinks he's the Chosen One, he can rise above all that.

The horrible thing is that he may be right.

5820. alistairconnor - 5/31/2005 4:01:38 AM

This just in :
It's Villepin

Oddly enough, Villepin is also associated with Chirac's other disaster : it is generally thought that the early election of 97 was his brilliant idea.

I suppose Chirac's thinking is that Villepin, having gained a certain international charisma over the Iraq business, is best placed to save something from the train wreck of the Euro constitution. However on the domestic front, he will get an extremely rough ride.

5821. Marc-Albert - 5/31/2005 5:32:34 AM

Frankly, I don't understand all that excitement about a change of prime minister. Under the present constitution, the President is the master and the prime minister is a mere cypher that can be dismissed at will.

Hell, Mitterrand hired and fired six or seven of 'em!

The situation is different of course during so-called periods of 'cohabitation', when the President doesn't control parliament, such as before the last legislative elections when the Socialist party dominated parliament. Then the prime minister truly was a Prime Minister.

ut not now. This Villepin fellow will a slave to his Master as the outgoing p. m. was.

5822. Marc-Albert - 5/31/2005 5:34:50 AM

But not now. This Villepin will be a slave to his Master as the outgoing p. m. was.

5823. Marc-Albert - 5/31/2005 5:37:22 AM

If the French constitution was the constitution of the United States, George W. Bush would be 10 times more powerful than he is right now.

5824. Macnas - 5/31/2005 5:51:47 AM

Perhaps that goes to show just how restrained Chirac is....

5825. alistairconnor - 5/31/2005 6:11:49 AM

the prime minister is a mere cypher that can be dismissed at will

more or less, but he/she is the one who actually does the work (the third candidate, Michèle Alliot-Marie, would have been the smartest choice in my view, competent and pragmatic)

And if it had been Sarkozy, it would have been a different story : no puppet, he would have been jerking Chirac around.

5826. thoughtful - 5/31/2005 7:03:36 AM

So from my naive understanding, the no vote is much ado about nothing from the pov of how the european union operates. For example, though the new constitution was supposed to present a single face for foreign policy, things like weapons trade were and still will be regulated by the EU, so that hasn't changed much. And issues like immigration and economic stagnation weren't addressed in the constitution, so that hasn't changed much.

Seems the larger fallout is in France itself and what it means for its domestic politics.

Key question is if they will try again for another constitution.

5827. alistairconnor - 5/31/2005 9:06:30 AM

No, I disagree. I think the implications for Europe are devastating. Mainly because (despite the delusions of the No side) there isn't a snowflake's chance of re-negotiating anything.

It's a sea change which pretty much hands leadership of the EU to the British, and their allies who are mostly among the new entrants. They had already succeeded in watering down the treaty to a point where it didn't change a hell of a lot of stuff, and now it's their loose-association free-trade-bloc model which is all that's left.

Sure, that's basically what we already had, but the ambition to deepen the union, which has historically been driven by France/Germany in tandem, is now fundamentally, and probably definitively, broken.

Thanks, idealists.

Here's a cute explanation of what happens next from the Guardian, in the form of a
pinball game

5828. Marc-Albert - 5/31/2005 3:15:40 PM

The full name of the new prime minister is Dominique Marie François René Galouzeau de Villepin. Mon dieu!

Like a surprising number of French politicians, he was born in the colonies. In his case, Morocco, 1953.

5829. alistairconnor - 6/1/2005 1:43:01 AM

He's an alleged poet and man of action... worshipper of Napoleon, he's written a book about the Hundred Days... looks like he's Chirac's Cambronne.

... Chirac has got to hang on for two more years until his Waterloo.

Amazingly, Sarkozy has agreed to enter the government in the number two spot. That promises to be entertaining.

The obvious historical comparison : Talleyrand and Fouché.

5830. Macnas - 6/1/2005 1:56:37 AM

Talleyrand? That is a lot to expect of him alistair, don't hex him before he starts.

5831. PelleNilsson - 6/1/2005 2:38:57 AM

A commentator here wrote that we don't need any sophisticated socio-economic-politial explanations for the failure of the constitution. It has simply become too much EU in too short a time. We have had the Euro and the row over the stability pact, the enlargement and the Cyprus reunification debacle, the service directive controversy and the ongoing acrimony over Turkey. The voters feel force-fed. They want to sit back, take stock and see where the chips fall before agreeing to any new initiatives.

I think there is some truth in that.

5832. Macnas - 6/1/2005 3:24:39 AM

I see they snuck in the smoking ban in Sweden Pelle, what do you think of it?

5833. alistairconnor - 6/1/2005 3:43:22 AM

I wonder if the whole EU concept hasn't been based on a misunderstanding.

The original six-nation EC was an instrument of reconciliation with Germany, primarily driven by the French. Other nations joined, many primarily for economic advantage, others also because it represents a political coming of age (Portugal, Spain, Greece) after totalitarian regimes.

The implicit, largely Franco-German, ambition of deepening political and social union, has either been embraced, politely ignored, or openly scoffed at (by the British). Regional blocs have emerged, among nations who have no problem understanding each other in cultural and political terms.

Reading the constitution, French people realise that there is relatively little of the Franco-German vision in it : it has been watered down to a compromise that even (hypothetically) the British might have accepted. And they say : it won't do.
And they see other stuff in there : laid out in black and white, the way Europe actually works. The fact (unpalatable to many) that we live in a market economy, and that one of the EU's missions is to see that the market functions fairly. There is a sense of vertigo at that glimpse of the "globalised" real world, and a melancholic reaction of refusal.

The Germans will understand, but resent, that reaction (they have, more pragmatically, accepted shitloads of compromise). The rest of Europe looks on, bewildered : What was that all about?

5834. jexster - 6/1/2005 10:48:53 PM

As Bush has been sinking and sinking and....in his Quagmire, there's been some shit goin down South of the Border..Hugo Chavez the IHT says is the next Castro..they overstate Fidel..understate Chavez..

Brazil, Ecuador, Bolivia are firm allies..left wing political parties are on the march across central and latin america, the Mayor of Mexico City is Chavezista and maybe next Presidente

China with more dollars than it knows what to do with is using em and US neglect to build strong economic position..an oil deal recently with guess who?

I now have Hugo on Yahoo news alert

Today I get

Chavez vez looks like the new Castro
International Herald Tribune Wed, 01 Jun 2005 7:09 AM PDT
When President Hugo ChÃ¡vez of Venezuela arrived at the World Social Forum in Brazil in January he was greeted with thunderous cries of "Here comes the boss!"

These two are kick in the ass!

Bush meets prominent opponent of Venezuela's Chavez
Reuters via Yahoo! News Tue, 31 May 2005 3:15 PM PDT
President Bush met a prominent opponent of Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez at the White House on Tuesday in a show of support that could anger the firebrand leader of a major U.S. oil supplier.

Bush Says He's Concerned by Chavez Opponents Case (Update1)
Bloomberg.com Tue, 31 May 2005 3:37 PM PDT
May 31 (Bloomberg) -- President George W. Bush said he's concerned that Venezuela brought treason charges against some of the organizers of last year's referendum to recall President Hugo Chavez, a White House spokesman said.

That's our Moron! Hey somebody oughta maybe tell him that his bullshit plays in Bumbfuck but in Brazil, he plays right into Hugo's hands

Viva Hugo!

5835. jexster - 6/1/2005 11:06:01 PM

Hugo SI! Bushie...

send the lyin fuck to the Hague

5836. jexster - 6/1/2005 11:06:28 PM

Che who?

5837. jexster - 6/2/2005 12:00:03 AM

Chávez defies opposition to fight electoral battle in 2006

During his speech at the graduation ceremony of high school students of Misión Ribas, President Hugo Chávez Tuesday challenged political foes to fight a new Battle of Santa Inés during the 2006 election.

Talking once again of a renown Venezuelan folk poem "Florentino y El Diablo" (Florentino and the Devil, in which a man accepts the devil's challenge), Chávez said: "We will fight another Battle of Santa Inés" (where the challenge had to take place in the poem and which he used as a reference in his campaign for the 2004 recall vote). "We will be face to face once again at Santa Inés."

In this regard, Chávez claimed he is getting ready for the 2006 election campaign.

"Florentino is already preparing the horse," he said. "The Devil seems to be getting his horse ready too," he claimed, in a clear reference to last week launching of opposition Primero Justicia party leader Julio Borges' candidacy for the 2006 presidential election.

Florentino y el Diablo

para Alberto Arvelo Torrealba, Obra poética, Caracas: Monte Ávila, 1999.

5838. PelleNilsson - 6/2/2005 3:44:28 AM

38-62 inj Holland. Devastating. The constiturion shares the fate of Humpty Dumpty.

5839. Magoseph - 6/3/2005 9:29:53 AM

WHY THE FRENCH VOTE WAS GOOD FOR EUROPE.
For Better
by Efraim Karsh Only at TNR Online
Post date: 06.01.05
On Sunday, Europe's "grand political project," as Romano Prodi, former president of the European Commission, has termed it, took a major beating when French voters decisively rejected the new EU constitution. The defeat followed a scare mongering campaign by pro-EU politicians across Europe on the dangers of voting no. While Jacques Chirac merely threatened his constituents that their neighbors were bound to regard a no vote as a French rejection of Europe, other politicians went further. Dutch Prime Minister Jan-Peter Balkenende warned that rejection of the constitution could lead to a new Holocaust. "I've been in Auschwitz and Yad Vashem," he said. "The images haunt me every day. It is supremely important for us to avoid such things in Europe. We really ought to think about that more." Sweden's European commissioner Margot Wallström followed suit in a speech on the sixtieth anniversary of V-E Day at the Theresienstadt concentration camp in Prague. "There are those today who want to scrap the supranational idea," she warned. "They want the European Union to go back to the old purely inter-governmental way of doing things. I say those people should come to Terezin [Theresienstadt] and see where that old road leads."
But in truth, France's vote against the constitution is an important victory for European unity, because the document posed a serious threat to the great European experiment in peace and prosperity. What began 53 years ago as an idealistic attempt to use economic cooperation to heal a war-torn continent has deteriorated with the passage of time into a gigantic imperial machinery that has largely eroded the democratic values and objectives for which it was originally established.
As the European Coal and Steel Community evolved (in 1957) to the European Economic Community and then (in the mid-1980s) to the European Union, and as its membership expanded from the original six to a staggering 25, the organization's vision of a confederation of states collaborating on an equal footing was increasingly replaced by the reality of an empire in the making--a consensual empire, yes, but an empire all the same, one in which a metropolitan center run by a new kind of bureaucratic political elite is responsible for more and more European decision-making and increasingly determined to remove control of lawmaking from member state governments. As Czech president Vaclav Klaus has warned:
The dangers are that Europe is departing from the foundations of democracy and liberty. I cannot imagine a democratic society without a nation state. I do not mean an ethnically pure nation state, which I reject. Democracy needs an identifiable state as its base--otherwise we are in a post-democracy and the European Union is a post-democratic institution.
The distinction between this outlook and that of Chirac and his likeminded EU supporters is hardly a matter of academic sophistry. It is the difference between individualism and universalism, between independent paths of development and the expansionist impulse--in short, the difference between nation and empire.
Taking their cue from a dominant post-World War II school of thought, the so-called pro-Europeans hold nationalism to be the scourge of international relations and the primary source of conflict and war; and they regard a tightly unified pan-European super-state as a panacea. In fact, there is nothing inherently ugly or violent about the desire of a specific group of people, sharing attributes including a common descent, language, culture, tradition, and history, to live their lives as they see fit in a territory they consider to be their historical or ancestral homeland.
Rather, the real problem is imperialism, which has constituted the foremost generator of violence throughout world history. The desire to dominate foreign creeds, nations, or communities and to occupy territories well beyond the ancestral homeland contains the inevitable seeds of violence. The worst atrocities in human history--from the exile of entire nations by the ancient Mesopotamian empires, to the decimation of the native populations of North and South America, to the Armenian genocide of World War I, to the Holocaust--have been carried out by imperial powers seeking regional or world mastery. Even some of the worst outbursts of recent violence, from the Middle East to Rwanda to Kosovo to Chechnya, are remnants of the bitter legacy of longstanding imperial domination.
Notwithstanding its universal pretense, each and every great empire throughout history has been dominated by a specific religious, ethnic, or national group, which has viewed its preeminence as a vehicle for the promotion of self-serving interests and the assimilation of attributes and value systems in the subject populations. This is how the great monotheistic religions of Christianity and Islam expanded well beyond their original habitats to become world religions, and how so many languages--Arabic, Spanish, Portuguese, English, and French, to mention but a few--transcended their origins to be assimilated by numerous countries and communities.
The same rule applies to the EU. It is no mere coincidence that the initiative for the coal and steel community came from two former great European empires--France and Germany--both of which have subsequently provided the main impetus behind its steady expansion. Beginning with Charles De Gaulle, French leaders, left and right, have viewed the European Union as a central tool for the restoration of imperial grandeur and influence. "We have to recognize," explained former French Euro Commissioner Pascal Lamy, in 2003, "that [within the EU] there are some countries which remember that they were once great world powers and which believe that this was not an accident--that they still have special qualities that deserve recognition." Given these sentiments, it is hardly surprising that the EU's smaller nations have remained wary of anything that smacks of imperialism--or that they have generally expressed greater affinity for the United States than France.
Indeed, Lamy should have added that many of those who support further European political integration--beginning with ratification of the EU constitution--do so because they see it as the best way to counter U.S. global predominance and establish the EU as a major challenger to the United States in the international arena. One of Chirac's foremost arguments for a yes vote in the referendum was that Europe needed a much deeper level of integration as it was "faced with this great world power." EU foreign policy chief Javier Solana was even blunter when he argued in April 2005, in a speech at the Institute of Political Science in Paris, that France must vote for the Constitution because otherwise "you run the risk of negating the hope for a better Europe and for a greater balance in the world. ... Some American neoconservatives are also hostile to the constitution precisely because they are see it as a sign of a new rise in Europe's power."
So not only does the frenzied rush toward integration risk turning the EU from an egalitarian community of states into an imperial ogre, but it predicates the organization on a negative footing--challenging U.S. global power--rather than giving it a positive rationale. Should their resounding non lead to a more modest EU, French voters will have done their continent a favor. For if history tells us anything it is that imperial overextension is a recipe for disaster--a destroyer, rather than a guarantor, of peace and unity. The version of the EU constitution voted down on Sunday was an imperial document, not a democratic one. Europe and the European Union are both better off without it.

5840. Magoseph - 6/3/2005 9:50:24 AM

The real question for me is why the people voted against their officialdom. They were urged to support a European Union that could emulate and compete with the US. It appears they have looked at how the people here are faring and have said: No thanks.

5841. Magoseph - 6/3/2005 10:07:12 AM

Any thoughts on this one too?

WHY THE FRENCH VOTE WAS BAD FOR AMERICA.
For Worse

by Philip H. Gordon Only at TNR Online

The humiliating political defeat inflicted on French President Jacques Chirac on Sunday--when 55 percent of voters rejected his appeals to support a new constitution for the European Union--has left more than a few Americans beaming with satisfaction. Even before the referendum, The Weekly Standard's William Kristol speculated that a no vote could be a "liberating moment" for Europe. After the ballots were counted, the American Enterprise Institute's Radek Sikorski concluded that the result would be "quite good for transatlantic relations," because it weakened "the most anti-U.S. politician in Europe."

American glee at the sight of Chirac with mud on his face is understandable; he was, after all, the leading opponent of the Iraq war and has long championed a Europe capable of serving as a counterweight to U.S. power. But Americans should hold their applause, which they may soon come to regret. That's because the eclectic group of angry French leftists, populists, nationalists, and nostalgics who opposed Chirac and the constitution had very different--in fact, precisely opposite--reasons for doing so than the Americans who cheered them on. In other words, if you didn't like French policies before Sunday, you're going to like them even less now.

It should be noted from the start that the major reason for recent American anger at Chirac--his opposition to the Iraq war--had absolutely nothing to do with his defeat. (If anything that remains one of his few redeeming qualities in the eyes of many French.) Indeed, the quick choice of former Foreign Minister Dominique de Villepin--who led France's anti-Iraq-war campaign at the United Nations--to head the new government should quickly dispel any U.S. hopes that this aspect of French foreign policy will now change. Nor should the recent political setbacks to war opponents Chirac and Gerhard Schroeder be seen as a trend--war supporters Tony Blair, Jose Maria Aznar, and Silvio Berlusconi have also suffered at the polls in the last 15 months.

Far from a statement about Chirac's foreign policies, the main message delivered by voters on Sunday was about the economy. And it was certainly not, as many Americans would have liked, that the French are fed up with excessive regulation, protectionism, and high taxes. Rather, the French no camp seemed to be saying it wanted more protection and regulation, not less. True, Chirac tried to defend the constitution by claiming that it would protect the French from "ultra-liberal Anglo-Saxon" economics. But voters did not believe him, and they wanted an EU constitution that made their preferences explicit. Does anybody really think that free-market reform and the defense of globalization will now become priorities of the French government?

Finally, consider the impact of the vote on another key U.S. aim in Europe: the widening of the EU to include America's friends and allies in Eastern Europe and, eventually, Turkey. Whatever one thinks of Chirac's sometimes condescending attitude toward so-called New Europe, he did see through EU enlargement to ten countries last year and his views on Turkish membership--in the face of strong opposition from within his own party--are downright progressive. Sunday's vote is a huge setback to the prospect of the EU aiding the spread of democracy, prosperity, and stability to the east. Indeed, many of those who voted against the constitution did so because they do not want a wider Europe. As a result, the promised accession talks with Turkey are now up in the air.

Obviously, even a massive vote in favor of the constitution would not have solved Europe's many problems or transformed the EU into a happily multicultural, pro-American economic dynamo. But it would be a mistake not to notice that the rejection of the constitution is a setback, rather than a triumph, for the United States and the principles that currently undergird its foreign policy. "Vive la France!" wrote Kristol, in celebrating the prospect that the constitution would go down to defeat. I hope I am proven wrong, but I suspect that a few years from now, neither Kristol nor most other Americans will look back fondly on the show of political strength by French extremists--left and right--we have just witnessed. When you find yourself cheering the triumph of nationalists, populists, and communists, suspicion is in order.

5842. alistairConnor - 6/3/2005 11:45:06 AM

Mago, that first TNR piece is a crock of crap.

Imagine, quoting the whackjob Vaclav Klaus with approval!
I cannot imagine a democratic society without a nation state. I do not mean an ethnically pure nation state, which I reject.

... this from the guy who broke Czecho-slovakia in two... not ethnically pure enough for him...

5843. Marc-Albert - 6/3/2005 4:58:36 PM

I would say the turpitude of the Slovak nationalists who controlled Slovakia at the time is largely responsible for the break-up of Czechoslovakia....... not Vaclav Klaus.

In the months preceeding Prague's decision to get rid of pretentious Slovakia, the autonomous Slovak Assembly was demanding ever increasing autonomy.

Having obtained from Prague just about evething they had been demanding for years, the Nationalist in control in Bratislava now formally demanded a separate Slovak army, including a fully separate officer corps, no less, and a separate slovak diplomatic service to boot.

In reality, the Nationalists in control in Bratislava were demanding for de facto independence for Slovakia, without having to pay for the risks and the costs of formal independence. Quite a deal.....

Klaus and the Czech got tired of this incredible Slovak preposterousness and, realizing there was no end to it, decided to give everything the Slovak nationalists were demanding.....and more.

Long live the Republic of Slovakia! Long live Vaclav Klaus, Founding Father of the Republic.

5844. ronski - 6/3/2005 5:37:44 PM

Of course, there had long been tensions between the Czechs and Slovaks.

Czechs were annoyed by Slovak claims of not being fully appreciated.

For example, Slovaks said the Czechs considered the Slovaks stupid.

Czechs replied that the charge was merely stupidity on the Slovaks' part.

5845. concerned - 6/6/2005 8:45:38 AM

sigh...when we talk languages, i think of irving...

When I think of demented pity monsters, I think of Irving.

5846. PelleNilsson - 6/6/2005 10:01:39 AM

When I think of hare-brained posters, I think of concerned.

5847. concerned - 6/6/2005 1:27:57 PM

When I think of goose-stepping Swedes, I think of Pelle.

5848. alistairConnor - 6/6/2005 2:55:36 PM

Just a thought I had this morning -- not an original one -- but on hearing a list of pro-Constitution nations, I thought, hmmm...

Spain
Portugal
Hungary
Germany
... yes, even Greece
(exit France)

what do these nations have in common? And why are the other nations either indifferent to, or completely hostile to, the notion of a supranational European state?

And I thought, what happened to Austria? what happened to Sweden? (... at a stretch) -- they belong in that list too.

5849. Magoseph - 6/7/2005 12:45:40 PM

Ali, est-ce que tu penses que cela vient d'un français?

Giscard d'Estaing avait écrit
Un traité pour tous ses amis
Pour l'Europe des marchés
Le peuple n'a pas marché

Dansons la Carmagnole
Vive le NON
Dansons la Carmagnole
Vive le NON
Nom de nom !

L'Europe est une marchandise
Qui excite les convoitises
Mais le peuple entêté
Veut la fraternité

Dansons la Carmagnole.

Bolkestein écrit sans retard
Une directive pour les richards
Les services publics
Ça rapporte du fric

Dansons la Carmagnole.

Avec une Constitution
Chirac veut redorer son blason
Un bon référendum
?a remonte un bonhomme

Dansons la Carmagnole.

Raffarin Sarkozy Seillières
La collusion date pas d'hier
Y'en a jamais assez
Les profits vont doubler

Dansons la Carmagnole.

En France on n'avait pas prévu
Le citoyen est résolu
Souviens toi Raffarin
Le peuple est souverain

Dansons la Carmagnole
Vive le NON
Dansons la Carmagnole
Vive le NON
Nom de nom !

Posted by Sam Sam Sam at RI.

5850. jexster - 6/7/2005 8:22:10 PM

GWB Soul Man
The Rollback of Democracy In Vladimir Putin's Russia

5851. alistairconnor - 6/8/2005 2:48:15 AM

Absolutely Mago. I hadn't heard it (thank god), but it seems completely authentic, it's precisely the sort of delirious gibberish the "Non de gauche" have been exciting each other with.

Now they will turn back to domestic politics, and will not even notice that they have brought Europe crashing down around our ears.

5852. jexster - 6/8/2005 2:26:28 PM

A sign of the times if ever one there was....can't even get the OAS to include a Bush talking point in a communique!

OAS closing statement omits US proposal to strengthen democracy

The 34-member Organization of American States omitted a US proposal on strengthening democracy in Latin America from the closing statement of its three-day summit.

5853. alistairConnor - 6/8/2005 2:36:24 PM

Yeah I also understand that, for the first time, the OAS elected a chair who didn't have the US stamp of approval.

5854. jexster - 6/8/2005 2:58:03 PM

Hugo makes hay while the sun shines.....

5855. Marc-Albert - 6/8/2005 5:06:08 PM

Brazil's financial markets fell sharply yesterday following corruption allegations against President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva's governing Workers' party. The Sao Paulo stock exchange fell by more than 4 per cent in early afternoon trading, while the real lost more than 1 per cent against the dollar.

Hilarious. The stock exchange debacle happened the very day the 4th Global Anti-Corruption Forum oppened in Brazilia.

Roberto Jefferson, head of the leftwing PTB party, a key member in the governing coalition, accused Mr Lula da Silva's PT of buying the support of congressmen with RDollars 30,000 (USDollars 12,440, Pounds 6,600) a month.

Mr Jefferson himself is accused of spearheading a scheme of kickbacks in state enterprises to help finance his party. (...)

Plus ça change.......

5856. Marc-Albert - 6/8/2005 5:14:14 PM

...oppened in Brasilia

5857. concerned - 6/8/2005 8:36:50 PM

OAS closing statement omits US proposal to strengthen democracy

The 34-member Organization of American States omitted a US proposal on strengthening democracy in Latin America from the closing statement of its three-day summit.

Something only sick sorry motherfuckers could be proud of.

5858. concerned - 6/8/2005 8:40:22 PM

I'm holding a lungful of marijuana smoke even as I type this.

Aaaaah.

5859. concerned - 6/8/2005 8:41:16 PM

Make that two lungfuls:)

-A voter for GWB.

5860. concerned - 6/8/2005 8:45:47 PM

jexster can't figure out where I'm coming from.

5861. jexster - 6/8/2005 8:47:11 PM

I am ashamed for that my country has fallen so fucking low, aren't you?

5862. concerned - 6/8/2005 8:52:31 PM

Talking about falling 'so fucking low', how about that according to the SITE Institute, 91% of Zarqawi's suicide bombers are not even Iraqis?

Ever think about who's really pulling your strings, jexster?

5863. concerned - 6/8/2005 8:56:03 PM

Here's what I think about this. What with 42 percent of the Zarqawi's killers hailing from Saudi Arabia, 12 percent from Syria, 11 percent from Kuwait, with the rest from an assortment of Asian and European nations, the Coalition can break something big for good by crushing the Iraqi insurgents, such as they really are.

5864. jexster - 6/8/2005 8:56:20 PM

But then I again, I predicted it would, well me and Manny W.

In fact we had an extensive discussion ofthis prophecy 3 years ago, around the time of the Downing Street Minutes

Perhaps this will refresh your recollection

The Eagle Has Crash Landed
Foreign Policy
The Magazine of Global Issues, Economics, and Ideas
July-August 2002

Pax Americana is over. Challenges from Vietnam and the Balkans to the Middle East and September 11 have revealed the limits of American supremacy. Will the United States learn to fade quietly, or will U.S. conservatives resist and thereby transform a gradual decline into a rapid and dangerous fall?

Now all know the answer - even you.

Power dimishes with its exercise Jexster 2002

And if I know it, and the entire OAS knows it, and even YOU know it,

do you think the Chinese, Euros, Ruskies..might have a clue too?

5865. concerned - 6/8/2005 8:59:57 PM

It's like stopping 'Rat election fraud. When the Coalition smashes these Iraqi 'insurgents' who are being bussed in from the latrines of the world, we'll be getting somewhere.

5866. jexster - 6/8/2005 9:08:06 PM

5867. concerned - 6/8/2005 9:08:22 PM

ABC News: Aggressive Talks Led to Exclusive N. Korea Access

Network Provides Rare Glimpse of World's Most Reclusive Country

Jun. 8, 2005 - ABC News' exclusive reporting from North Korea this week is the result of long-term, persistent talks with the North Korean government, said ABC News Foreign News Director Chuck Lustig.

"ABC News has been aggressive in dealing with the North Koreans, trying to convince them that it was in their best interest to teach Americans about North Korea," Lustig said.

ABC News' Bob Woodruff filed his first report from the capital city of Pyongyang on Tuesday for "World News Tonight with Peter Jennings."

The trip marks the first extensive reporting by an American network inside North Korea since then-Secretary of State Madeline Albright's visit in October 2000.

Lustig, who coordinated the trip, said he has been traveling to the country since 1995. He accompanied ABC News President David Westin on a trip to Pyongyang in February of 2005, and most recently visited in May to petition government officials for access.

He said the trip provides a "great opportunity" for Americans to gain a firsthand account of what it's like to live in North Korea.

"The American people only know what the American government says about North Korea," he said. "Our goal is to report both on current tensions and give some sense of the country."

Although North Korea's press outlets are under direct state control, Lustig said the ABC News team is making the most of the rare access.

"In any closed society, there are issues that we have to contend with," he said.

The ABC News team visited the campus of Kim Il Sung University, Lustig said, but found that all of the students and faculty had left the campus to plant rice crops. An estimated 3 million North Koreans have left the cities to plant rice for the upcoming season, he said.

North Korea is in the midst of a major food crisis, while trying to boost its agricultural production.

ABC News also visited a biscuit factory sponsored by the United Nations World Food Program, where international aid was being used to produce biscuits to feed the country's children.

Lustig said the ABC News team will remain in the country until Saturday.

Copyright © 2005 ABC News Internet Ventures

Irony? Or just LW media Ratheresque disingenuousness? You be the judge.

5868. concerned - 6/8/2005 9:11:24 PM

NK's technological high point is biscuits made with international aid to stave off mass starvation or nukes. SK's is high tech consumer goods. I don't know about a lot of you horribly fucked up lefties, but I know which I'm more in tune with.

5869. concerned - 6/8/2005 9:20:52 PM

Life remains very difficult in North Korea, where food shortages and occasional blackouts are common occurrences. To save power, the traffic lights in the capital Pyongyang have been turned off for more than four years. Highly trained police direct the traffic at intersections instead.

All traffic lights...in the capital....four years?!??!?!!!!!?!?!!!!!!!!

That's almost the most fucked up thing I've ever heard about! But I'm sure you who inhabit the Lefty bizarro universe feel differently....

5870. concerned - 6/8/2005 9:26:50 PM

The campus at Kim Il Sung University, normally teeming with 12,000 students, is empty. The students, along with an estimated 3 million other North Koreans, were ordered out of the cities this month and directed into rice fields to help plant the new crop.

North Korea is in the midst of a major food crisis, and is working to boost its agricultural production.

"Our leader Kim Jung Il told us to mobilize," one North Korean engineer-turned-farmer told ABC News. "A person cannot work without food."

What kind of vile, worthless internal terrorist state could hope to pull off such centralized command antics?

5871. concerned - 6/8/2005 9:28:54 PM

From ABC's 'World News Tonight' - sometimes actual content is impossible to avoid, even by the Lefty media.

5872. concerned - 6/8/2005 9:34:39 PM

If I was one of those NK's who were ordered to quit his job as a professional and ordered to shovel shit in some farm due to govt. mismanagement, I'd get ahold of some useful explosives and automatic weapons and take out a few dozen Stalinist bureaucrats.

5873. concerned - 6/8/2005 9:55:04 PM

Btw, if any body in the Mote knows where a very high quality figurine of a highest class Japanese Oiran or Tayuu about 2- 3 feet in height, preferably made with gofun, can be obtained, I may be willing to pay some good money for it.

5874. alistairconnor - 6/9/2005 5:49:38 AM

Message # 5857 Something only sick sorry motherfuckers could be proud of.

OK Con :

1) name me a time in the last 50 years when democracy has been stronger and healthier in Latin America, than it is now.
2) name me a time when US influence has been weaker.

... and I'll just hold my breath while I'm waiting.
(Hmmmm... interesting inverse correlation there...)

5875. Macnas - 6/9/2005 7:13:04 AM

Con

If NK had big 'ol oil reserves, maybe GW would think about going in there and improving things.

I mean, why not? They have weapons of mass destruction, hell they boast about it! They sell weapons and weapons technology to anyone who can afford it. They trample their own people into the ground and hold them more or less hostage.

If you are as in tune with the current leader of the free world as you make out, write him, or your representative and demand an invasion of NK. Global superpowers should be consistent don't you think?

5876. concerned - 6/9/2005 9:59:11 AM

Re. 5874 -

Advocating to turn democracy into the governance that dare not speak its name is something that I might expect from you.

5877. concerned - 6/9/2005 10:00:12 AM

Re. 5875 -

You're referring to the foolish consistency of small minds which GWB is not subject to.

5878. jexster - 6/9/2005 11:02:04 AM

The recent votes in France and the Netherlands against the proposed constitution of the European Union are not merely political phenomena. They represent significant actions in the development of Fourth Generation war. Why? Because the root cause of Fourth Generation war is a crisis of legitimacy of the state, and the two referenda saw the French and Dutch people rebel against their elites' efforts to empty the state of its content.

The Western political elites began to transfer their allegiance away from the state after World War I, in response to the horrors the state created at places like Ypres, the Somme, and Verdun. They intensified their new loyalty to the internationalist superstate after World War II, and began the slow, painstaking creation of actual superstates in the form of the United Nations, the World Court, the Common Market (now the European Union), and similar bodies. They expected that in time, the common people – the plebs, the narod, the riah – would follow the wise example of their betters and give their loyalty too to Brave New World.

But they were wrong. As the French and Dutch referenda showed, ordinary people would rather offer their loyalty to something real, their historic nation-state, than to an abstract scheme in which they rightly perceive totalitarian tendencies (a number of former Soviet dissidents are warning that the European Union looks increasingly like the Soviet Union). Das Volk prefers its own culture to the poison of "multiculturalism," its own neighbors to hordes of semi-barbaric immigrants and its own customs to regulations handed down by Gosplan bureaucrats in Brussels.

How will the Brave New World elites respond to this unenlightened effrontery on the part of the great unwashed?

Striking Back at the Empire

5879. alistairConnor - 6/9/2005 11:14:23 AM

Advocating to turn democracy into the governance that dare not speak its name is something that I might expect from you.

I have no idea what this means, Con. Can you translate? Is Latin America governed by gays?

And I'm starting to get blue in the face : come on, name a decade when there were more democratically-elected Latin American governments than there are today?

5880. alistairConnor - 6/9/2005 11:15:53 AM

Yeah Jex, the fact that conservative nationalists like Lind, and their European counterparts, are jubilant at the train wreck of the EU constitution... what does that tell us about the "NON de gauche"?

On est toujours le con utile de quelqu'un.

5881. jexster - 6/9/2005 3:54:26 PM

I am not sure that he doesn't have a point AC, and it is a point that I think the far left anti-globalization/WTO crowd would very much agree with. But ideological judgment aside, isn't there something fundamentally human going on here...Lind's thesis that the EU would replace loyalty to the nation with nothing, leaves the citizen attached to nothing but the citizen always looks to attach and will do so, be it to tribe, to religion, to ethnic group, to region, to town, to king, abbot, lord of the manor...thus it has always been n'est ce-pas?

ordinary people would rather offer their loyalty to something real

There's no there there

5882. jexster - 6/9/2005 4:01:24 PM

La Demoiselle d'Avignon, elle est d'accord, n'est-ce pas!

5883. jexster - 6/9/2005 4:07:38 PM

Amour sacré de la Patrie

Aux armes citoyens!

Entendes AC..entendes

5884. jexster - 6/9/2005 4:08:42 PM

mes jouets

5885. alistairConnor - 6/9/2005 4:12:18 PM

Lind's thesis that the EU would replace loyalty to the nation with nothing

That's just plain silly, it corresponds to actually nothing concrete nor even ideological.

Who do you love best, your father or your mother?

What do you prefer, truth or ice cream?

Choose between France and Europe.

Meaningless questions.

5889. jexster - 6/9/2005 4:19:22 PM

If I were French, Why should I trade Mireille for Pelle fer crissakes!

If "nothing real" is too strong, what term would you prefer?

5890. jexster - 6/9/2005 4:19:48 PM

Why die for Danzig?

5891. jexster - 6/9/2005 4:21:44 PM

and don't blame Lind Frenchman...you invented le citoyen

5892. jexster - 6/9/2005 4:24:53 PM

Amour sacre de l'UE?

Très inspirant !

5893. jexster - 6/9/2005 4:27:50 PM

Ma grandmere on the ENGLISH side spent her last couple three decades with hubbie in Florence and Paris...

She would cry in her brandy at the Crillon every 14 Juillet...

Not an empty concept AC....

5894. jexster - 6/9/2005 4:34:28 PM

5895. jexster - 6/9/2005 4:40:43 PM

But all of that pales in comparison...what if I am right? What if there is an affinity between the Black Block Anarchist in a WTO demonstration and the right wing nationalist AC..what if the "elites" ARE leaving both isolated, alienated and hungry for attachment..

What might happen then?

5896. Macnas - 6/10/2005 1:10:45 AM

Fuck all, as usual.

5897. alistairconnor - 6/10/2005 2:07:01 AM

You really don't get it, Jex.

Being part of Europe doesn't make me any less French.

I am a citizen of :
* my commune (600 inhabitants)
* my département (about a million)
* my region (say 5 million)
* France (60 million)
* Europe (300 million?)

At each level, I have rights and obligations. I feel some level of identification with each of these levels. Probably, overall, the national level is source of the strongest sense of identification, for me personally; but this varies according to the subject in question, and may vary over time.

It's perfectly OK if people choose not to feel anything about one or more of these levels. But as citizens, we still have to deal with the rights and obligations.

Oddly, although I have rights as a European citizen, I have no obligations that I can think of. This is the only one of these levels that I don't pay taxes to. The failed constitution wouldn't even have changed that (which is one of its major weaknesses in my view).

5898. alistairconnor - 6/10/2005 2:13:16 AM

but it does prove Lind's point

Lind is a Romantic. His tearful defense of the 19th-century concept of the sovereign nation-state might be moving, if it were not laughable.

5899. alistairconnor - 6/10/2005 2:25:36 AM

Lind's thesis that the EU would replace loyalty to the nation with nothing

Silly man. If I love my wife, do I have to stop loving my mother?

Perhaps Lind loves his mother like a wife?

5900. alistairconnor - 6/10/2005 3:08:54 AM

My brother has an old college chum who dedicates his life to history, to the history of the Holy Roman, A/H Empire for among other reasons, his admiration of the Hapsberg Empire as a model of the EU. this is not a novel theme in that particular field, but it does prove Lind's point

A couple of days ago, in Message # 5848, I made this point... nobody picked it up. List of countries which are favourable to the EU constitution :
Spain
Portugal
Hungary
... yes, even Greece
(exit France)
(Germany and Italy are special cases which I will discuss separately)
... and I noted that Austria and perhaps Sweden also rightfully belonged in that list.

What they have in common is that they are countries with a cultural memory of empire. In Europe, or in the colonies.

Does this mean that the citizens of each have an expectation of return to former glory; to a world where, as privileged citizens of the core of a greater ensemble, the world is their oyster?

I think so. And I think they are right.

Am I arguing that their past empires were Good Things? Of course not, the idea is completely irrelevant.

5901. alistairconnor - 6/10/2005 3:12:14 AM

But the idea that the EU, as proposed, by the mere fact of being a supranational entity, constituted some sort of totalitarian Evil Empire is completely laughable. On the contrary, practically the only concrete innovations in the constitution concerned guarantees of individual rights (creating opposable rights at a European level, so that a citizen can appeal against injustice inflicted on a national level), and direct democracy (with two million signatures, EU citizens would have been able to introduce legislation into the European parliament).

As a guarantee AGAINST tyranny, I believe the trashed constitution was unequalled by any document in human history.

What I don't get, is this notion

5902. Macnas - 6/10/2005 3:33:40 AM

Go on..

5903. alistairconnor - 6/10/2005 3:51:13 AM

(strike that last half-sentence)

So, Jex, I think you will concede that there is nothing of SUBSTANCE in this Evil Empire idea. However, there is a PERCEPTION that must be dealt with.

We've got these other nations, those without any positive cultural memory of empire. What they have, on the contrary, is national mythologies of suffering and revolt against Evil Empires, be they Hapsburg, Turk, Napoleon, Soviet or whatever. They have memories of episodes of proud national independence (and, more rarely, of democracy).

It would be interesting to see whether there has been any strong correlation between national independence and individual freedoms in Europe, in the past. What is now absolutely clear is that the EU is a bulwark against tyranny, not an instrument of it. Ask the Ukrainians and the Turks why they so ardently desire to join it. The new entrants may well take it for granted that the EU protects them from war and from tyranny; they are wrong to do so. If we allow the EU to be weakened, we greatly increase the danger of those nations finding themselves under the heel of a tinpot local dictator.

5904. PelleNilsson - 6/10/2005 4:11:19 AM

The idea of using the Habsburg empire as a model for the EU is singularly inappropriate. That empire disintegrated precisely because of such nationalist sentiments that LInd thinks are a good thing. The idea that nations are metaphysical entities to whom citizens own loyalty is, as alistair says, a romantic one which can be traced back to the German philosophers Herder and Hegel, in particular the latter who launched the concept of the Volksgeist (nation's soul) which strives to realise its own destiny. ("Nation" here is something more than a geographical territory.)

Such ideas are immensely dangerous. They can get out of control and evolve into raw jingoism. We Europeans know that. We have seen it happen twice in the last century at incalculable loss of life and wanton destruction. And we saw it again, in miniature, in the Balkans.

We don't need no American pundits telling us about nationalism and loyalism.

5905. alistairconnor - 6/10/2005 4:35:34 AM

Thankyou Pelle...

Tell me, do Swedes have that ancestral memory of empire?

...

I said that Germany and Italy are special cases which I would discuss separately. In fact, they did not come into being through the breakup of empires, but through the aggregation of smaller, more or less sovereign, entities.

And although they feel a sense of nationhood, it is strongly coloured by a sense of regional identity. And they are able to connect (this is my brand-new thesis) to the process of building a common entity out of fragments; they are naturally, instinctively pro-EU.

Also, both have seen the mid-point of their short existence as nations, dominated by extreme nationalism with catastrophic consequences.

5906. PelleNilsson - 6/10/2005 4:44:20 AM

Check in after dinner for a mini-essay on Sweden and Europe. I'm a bit pressed for time no.

5907. jexster - 6/10/2005 10:28:49 AM

Europe Votes, Neocons Gloat — but Why?
I shouldn't have been too surprised that Washington's faith-based community would once again impose their wishful thinking on the reality in Europe and elsewhere.

by Leon Hadar

I happened to be in Paris on the same day that the French people rejected the proposed European Union Constitution – a vote that was described by analysts in the French capital as a defeat for U.S.-led globalization and American-style capitalism.

After arriving a few days later in Washington, and reading neoconservative op-ed commentaries and watching the pundits on Fox News television, I had no choice but to conclude that the anti-EU Constitution votes in France and Holland were nothing less than a great victory for the United States.

Of course, many of the American foreign policy "experts" who were spinning the French and Dutch votes as reruns of the collapse of the Berlin Wall were also the same guys who had predicted that Americans would find weapons of mass destruction (WMD) in Iraq, uncover the links between Saddam Hussein and Osama bin Laden, and be welcomed as "liberators" by the Iraqis. So in a way, I shouldn't have been too surprised that Washington's faith-based community would once again impose their wishful thinking on the reality in Europe and elsewhere.

5908. PelleNilsson - 6/10/2005 12:05:22 PM

Sweden's moment of glory as a European powere occurred during the 17th century. It was the result of the collapse of the Teutonic Knights' rule in the Baltics creating a power vacuum which Sweden hastened to fill and the spoils of the thirty-years war. The strategic objective was to gain complete dominance of the Baltic Sea. It almost succeeded. The ports of present Lithuania and eastern Poland escaped our clutches.

The glory came to an end in 1708 when a Swedish army was crushed by the Russians at Poltava in present Ukraine. The 18th century was a long decline underpinned by ill-considered, adventurist undertakings to get back at Russia. The nadir came in 1809 when we lost Finland, Now, Finland was not a colony. It was East Sweden and had been so since before the historical record emerges. It was a big national trauma. The then king, Gustav IV, was deposed in a bloodless coup and the French marshal Bernadotte was elected to replace him. He became a disappointment for everybody. Napoleon, who had given his nod of approval, had counted on Sweden as an ally. Instead, Bernadotte took the country into the alliance against Napoleon. Many Swedes had relied on this famous military man to reclaim Finland but Bernadotte would have nothing of that. He realised there was no chance of success and opted for an accommodation with Russia. So began Sweden's long period of neutrality and peace.

Then first test of this policy came with the Crimean war which had repercussions up here because Britain blockaded Russia's trade in the Baltic. The revanchists saw that as a good opportunity to make a push for Finland but caution prevailed. The next test came over Schleswig-Holstein, two duchies in northern Germany, which were ruled by the Danish king (note that I say "the Danish King", not "Denmark"). The status of the two duchies was extremely complicated and unclear. Lord Palmerston is reported to have said that "only three people understood the Schleswig-Holstein question; one went mad, one is dead, and I have forgotten". In any case, by 1863 Bismarck was set to gobble them up as part of his unification mission.

The crisis had loomed for a decade. The Swedish king at the time, Karl XV the younger son of Bernadotte, spent his time inaugurating railway stations, deflowering peasant girl and delivering bombastic speeches. One of his favourite subjects was Scandinavian solidarity (recall that he was king of Norway too) and how the neighbours would come each other's aid in times of crisis. But when push came to the shove over Schleswig-Holstein he had nothing to show. His cabinet took a long look at the situation and decided that to come to the aid of Denmark would be a waste of resources needed domestically.

My theory, perhaps a bit extravagant, is that at this particular moment we finally decided to turn our backs on the mess that was (and is) Europe. We had been neutral; now we became neutralist, it had become an ideology. And that is where we stand today. We belong to Europe, but we do not identify with it in any deeper sense. I think this is changing, but slowly and mostly among the younger, well-educated generation. The Erasmus student-exchange program is particularly helpful. A significant number of students spend a semester or two at a university outside Sweden.

So, Alistair, your question that prompted the above verbiage was if Swedes have any ancestral memory of empire. I would say no. Of course we remember, but it is not an operative memory in the sense that it has any influence on present attitudes EU.

5909. PelleNilsson - 6/10/2005 12:05:48 PM

... towards EU.

5910. jexster - 6/10/2005 12:26:03 PM

My Hero
Our Saviour

Slaget vid Poltava en av de mest betydelsefulla militära drabbningarna i Sveriges historia.

5911. PelleNilsson - 6/10/2005 12:26:33 PM

And, Alistair. Talking about empires we must not forget Denmark. We need not go back to Canute. Look at the situation in 1800. Denmark then had the two duchies I mentioned, Norway, Iceland, Greenland and the Faroes. It lost Norwáy to Sweden in 1814, the duchies to Prussia in 1864 and Iceland declared independence in 1944. But Denmark hangs on to Greenland and the Faroes despite occasional grumblings among the locals.

5912. ronski - 6/10/2005 2:17:30 PM

I wonder what grumbling in Faroese sounds like.

Btw, I saw a Scanian flag decal on a car the other day.

I meant to ask a Herringista if there are some sort of separatist rumblings going on. Or grumblings.

5913. ronski - 6/10/2005 2:36:53 PM

Pelle,

Is this site in Scanian of some kind or basic Stockholmish Swedish?

Link.

5914. Marc-Albert - 6/10/2005 3:30:39 PM

Interesting Pelle. I've sometime wondered when, and for what reason, busybody Sweden had taken that "neutralist" turn at some distant past, virtually withdrawing from European and world politics.

5915. PelleNilsson - 6/11/2005 2:04:27 AM

Whackos aside there is no separatist movement as such, but a growing awareness and emphasis on Scania's Danish heritage, in particular after the opening of the Oresund bridge connecting Malmö and Copenhagen. I suppose this will reach some kind of climax in 2008 when it will be 350 years since we pried what is now southern Sweden loose from Denmark.

The site is in standard Swedish. Dialects are not written except, sometimes, for literary effect.

Here you can listen to Scanian and Stockholmian. Click on one of the speakers at the top of the page (MP3 loads much faster). Those are contemporary speakers.

5916. jexster - 6/11/2005 7:42:34 PM

How Now Kow Tow?

Bush Goes Low With Roh

5917. ronski - 6/12/2005 7:15:37 AM

Thanks, Pelle.

5918. jexster - 6/12/2005 12:25:40 PM

Democracy Lite
A Mark Fiore Animated Toon

5919. concerned - 6/13/2005 10:05:50 AM

Wasn't Sweden at the disadvantage of having a relatively low population compared to countries such as Poland, France and Russia during this period of time?

5920. concerned - 6/13/2005 10:09:38 AM

Anglo-French row over EU budget worsens

Hey, AC - what's France's problem that it has to sabotage cooperation with other EU countries? First the constitution, now this. And here the Greek, er, French, chorus was whining about GWB's 'unilaterism'.

5921. jexster - 6/13/2005 10:31:23 AM

Paper tiger
Paper tiger
Paper tiger
Paper tiger

tune

5922. PelleNilsson - 6/13/2005 11:41:33 AM

Yes, certainly. Estimates vary but Sweden including Finland cannot have had more than 2 million inhabitants in the 17th century. But the nature of warfare was such that if you could set up an initial army, train it well and score some victories in the initial battles on foreign soil you could then feed off the land and get money to hire mercanaries to complement your domestic troops. The supply of soldiers for hire was a major service industry at the time with the Germans and the Scots as the major players.

As time went by, Swedes made up a minority of the Swedish army. Moreover they had a very high attrition rate even if not sent into battle. "They shat themselves to death" as a Swedish historian has expressed it, referring to dysentery and similar diseases contracted in the germ-infested army camps. There is a documented case of 200 young boys from an area of Sweden sent to Germany. Three months after their arrival all but 38 were dead, none of them from battle wounds.

5923. Marc-Albert - 6/13/2005 6:06:37 PM

"Dutch voters are superficial and untrustworthy"

LOL! Karel de Gucht, whose recent nomination as Minister of Foreign Affairs probably had more to do with byzantine Belgian coalition politics than his diplomatic talents, also said publicly yesterday that Dutch Prime Minister Jan Peter Balkenende, that he blames for the referendum fiasco in the Netherland, was a mix of Harry Potter and and a petit bourgeois devoid of charisma ("un mélange entre Harry Potter et un brave bourgeois rigide qui n’a pas une once de charisme").

Last night, Belgian Prime Minister Guy Verhofstadt was on the phone with his Dutch counterpart late and it is said that they will have more talks during the week.

Let's touch wood: there has been no reports of troop movements at the border yet.

5924. Marc-Albert - 6/13/2005 6:12:59 PM

Actually, this took place Sunday June 5, and not yesterday.

5925. robertjayb - 6/14/2005 12:22:10 PM

Dirty War amnesty revoked...

BUENOS AIRES, Argentina (AP) -- Argentina's Supreme Court ruled Tuesday that laws granting amnesty for atrocities committed during the so-called Dirty War are unconstitutional, opening the possibility that hundreds of people could be brought back to court.

Human rights groups say up to 30,000 people disappeared during Argentina's 1976-83 military rule in a crackdown on leftist dissidents.

In a 7-1 vote, with one abstention, the Supreme Court struck down laws passed in 1986 forbidding charges involved in the disappearances, torture and other crimes, a court spokesman told The Associated Press.

Some 3,000 officers, about 300 of whom are still serving in the armed forces, could be called for questioning, according to human rights groups, which estimated that up to 400 of them could face new charges.

5926. alistairConnor - 6/14/2005 2:14:48 PM

I note that, the other day, the Chilean supreme court decided that Pinochet was mentally incompetent to face torture charges, but was answerable for fiscal crimes.

Fine with me, as long as he dies penniless and/or in prison.

5927. PelleNilsson - 6/14/2005 2:23:23 PM

Robert's toys delenda est.

5928. robertjayb - 6/14/2005 3:42:30 PM

tack...

5929. wonkers2 - 6/14/2005 3:54:46 PM

I would hope for a stroke paralyzing everything but his eyes.

5930. Marc-Albert - 6/14/2005 6:27:59 PM

Actually, I like General/Senator Pinochet, and wish him well.

Like it or not, the Chile of 2005 - the most prosperous country in Latin America - is the Chile of Augusto Pinochet.

5931. Marc-Albert - 6/14/2005 6:54:11 PM

A September 11 I intend to celebrate in 2023 is this one:

5932. wonkers2 - 6/14/2005 8:23:07 PM

What do you like about Pinochet? What event is depicted in the pictures you posted?

5933. wonkers2 - 6/14/2005 8:25:02 PM

The overthrow of Chile's democratically elected government with the help of the CIA, perhaps?

5934. wonkers2 - 6/14/2005 8:31:32 PM

Many people in Chile, U.S. and around the world consider Pinochet a criminal. As I recall, Pinochet or his henchmen arranged the murder of Orlando Letelier and his secretary on the streets of downtown Washington, D.C.

5935. wonkers2 - 6/14/2005 8:33:49 PM

Pinochet's murder of Orlando Letelier

5936. jexster - 6/14/2005 8:43:27 PM

Romanian secret agents helped free French hostage in Iraq: PM

5937. Macnas - 6/15/2005 1:31:16 AM

This is a favourite saw of yours Marc.

Khan's as well I think.

5938. PelleNilsson - 6/15/2005 6:02:10 AM

RIP Álvaro

LISBON Álvaro Cunhal, who led Portugal's Communist Party for half a century and became a national hero after the overthrow of the country's dictatorship, died on Monday at the age of 91, the party said.

The government declared a day of national mourning on Wednesday, the day of Cunhal's funeral in Lisbon.

Cunhal spent nearly 35 years underground or in prison for his role in building the Communists into the only well-organized opposition to the dictatorship of Antonio Salazar and then Marcelo Caetano, which ended in a bloodless army coup in 1974.

When Cunhal returned from exile in Moscow after the coup, his party's showing in elections propelled him into ministerial posts in four provisional military-led governments. But he was unable or unwilling to soften his austere style to broaden his support, and the country's leftist sympathies focused on Mario Soares and the Socialists.

Cunhal was a charismatic and imposing figure, even in his later years, with white hair, jet-black eyebrows and intense black eyes. His retirement in 1993, when he stepped down to make way for his groomed successor, Carlos Carvalhas, removed one of the most passionate public orators from the Portuguese political arena.

Soares, who eclipsed Cunhal to become prime minister after the army coup and then a two-term president, described his rival as "a remarkable man with a luminous, penetrating glance that bespoke great inner strength."

5939. wonkers2 - 6/15/2005 6:05:05 AM

Apparently Marc-Albert puts free enterprise ahead of free elections.

5940. PelleNilsson - 6/15/2005 6:32:43 AM

Marc-Albert is a fundamentally agreeable fellow, who, in this instance, wants to provoke us leftists.

5941. Macnas - 6/15/2005 6:33:50 AM

Who are you calling a leftist? I'm very conservative myself..

5942. wonkers2 - 6/15/2005 7:06:01 AM

Well, he has succeeded.

5943. Marc-Albert - 6/15/2005 7:07:29 AM

Some "democratically-elected government"!

That presidential Marxist bastard, backed by 36.5 % of popular vote (remember that Adolf Hitler got 37.3 %) went on destroying the entire socio-economic structures of Chile by nationalizing/confiscating virtually the entire economy (down to small farms, beauty parlors(!), travel agencies, etc).

You mention the overthrow of "the democratically-elected government", Wonkers. Let me remind you that the Chilean government was composed of the President, Congress and the Judiciary. The Chilean Congress, (also democratically-elected if you don't mind my saying so), first had to formally elect the President (because Allende got only 36.5% of the vote), then later repeatedly disavowed Allende's authoritarian decrees, declaring them unconstitutional. The democratically-elected Congress of Chile approved the overthrow of Allende who, (as "democratically-elected" Adolf Hitler) had become an illegitimate ruler.

The Chilean Supreme Court also declared several of Allende's laws and decrees unconstitutional, to no avail.

But then, for reductionist lefties, it seems that only the Marxist president's will counted. To hell with the Chilean Congress and the Courts.

5944. wonkers2 - 6/15/2005 7:16:02 AM

Allende was elected and then deposed by a CIA/ITT inspired coup d'etat. Pinochet was responsible for countless "disappearances," tortures and murders. The restoration of democracy and Chile's thriving economy don't justify Pinochet's reign of terror. Wasn't it Lenin who said you have to break eggs to make an omelette?

5945. wonkers2 - 6/15/2005 7:33:36 AM

Macnas: "Who are you calling a lefty? I'm very conservative myself."

Ditto for W2!

5946. wonkers2 - 6/15/2005 7:43:45 AM

Don't confuse my criticism of Pinochet with an endorsement of Allende. I am a supporter of democratic, free enterprise economic-political systems with effective regulattory and social insurance programs.

5947. PelleNilsson - 6/15/2005 8:05:45 AM

One mustn't confuse conservatism and nostalgia.

5948. Macnas - 6/15/2005 9:28:24 AM

Or being old-fashioned with nostalgic.

5949. PelleNilsson - 6/15/2005 10:02:11 AM

Right.

5950. Dubai Vol - 6/16/2005 11:48:00 AM

Islamic Justice

5951. Marc-Albert - 6/16/2005 1:06:32 PM

Clever... The latest advertising of the Polish Tourist Office in France, making fun of French fears about that mythical "Polish plumber", who steals French job by charging one-fifth of the price.

5952. PelleNilsson - 6/16/2005 1:31:01 PM

Dubai's UAE source: "in India, victims of crime often have nowhere to turn."

How it is reported in the local press (pile down to near the end of the page).

Lucknow, June 16: The case of Imrana, the daughter-in-law who was raped by her father-in-law and then “ordered” by the community panchayat to live with her rapist as his wife, has now taken on a new twist with the accused denying having raped the woman. The police arrested Ali Mohammad, the accused father-in-law, on Wednesday evening and produced him in court on Thursday.

The court remanded him to 14 days’ judicial custody. Ali Mohammad, while talking to local journalists in court, pleaded not guilty and said that due to his advancing age he is not even capable of normal sexual activities, leave alone rape. He alleged that he was being framed by Imrana who was being used as a pawn by some of his own family members.

Since Imrana took almost a fortnight to report the matter to the police, there was no immediate medical examination of the accused and the victim to establish rape. Meanwhile, Imrana’s brothers are now up in arms against the electronic media which, according to them, has turned the entire case into a “tamasha.” Talking to this correspondent Imrana’s brother Dilshad and Imran accused the media of “hounding their sister.”

5953. ronski - 6/17/2005 2:54:11 PM

Marc-Albert,

That's very funny.

5954. alistairConnor - 6/17/2005 2:58:18 PM

It is indeed.

Personally I subverted the "Polish plumber" riff, I was sickened by the lack of solidarity and incipient xenophobia.

So my slogan was

"Nous sommes tous des plombiers polonais!"

(historical reference : May 68, "Nous sommes tous des juifs allemands", after De Gaulle had Cohn Bendit expelled to Germany)

5955. Magoseph - 6/17/2005 7:47:30 PM

ANGRY CHIRAC AGREES WITH BUSH THAT THE FRENCH SUCK
Rare Accord for Two Heads of State

Angered that the French people voted down the European Union’s constitution two weeks ago, French President Jacques Chirac announced today that he agreed with President Bush that the French suck.

For the French president, the public acknowledgment that the French suck marked a reversal of his position and a stunning break with centuries-old tradition.

Mr. Chirac took the extraordinary step of flying to Washington to appear side-by-side with U.S. president to express their mutual distaste for the French.

In a Rose Garden ceremony, the French president told reporters, “For years, President Bush has been complaining about the French, and now, Sacre Bleu! I know what he’s talking about,” adding, “They are annoying.”

In a joint communiqué, the two leaders said they would work together to ridicule the French people, with Mr. Chirac agreeing to import over one thousand anti-French jokes over the next twelve months.

In addition, the French president said he would propose legislation in France that would change the words “pommes frites” on all French restaurant menus to “Freedom Fries.”

“Wait til those cheese-eating surrender-monkeys get a load of that!” Mr. Chirac said.

For President Bush, the French president’s agreement that the French suck was sweet vindication, but Mr. Bush indicated that he was not about to rest on his laurels.

“I will not be satisfied until Gerhard Schröder admits that the Germans suck,” Mr. Bush said.

5956. judithathome - 6/17/2005 8:31:30 PM

Is that from the Onion, Mago?

5957. Marc-Albert - 6/18/2005 7:38:34 AM

Who said he was 'finished'?

...in spite of isolation on the rebate, a real opportunity is emerging for consensus and progress on EU economic and social reform. Mr Blair is well placed to shape that debate, first as holder of the presidency and, second, as the re-elected leader of the only large EU nation whose economy is thriving and which is increasing spending on social welfare.

I hope this won't make you cry Jexster, but the above is from today's The Guardian.

5958. Magoseph - 6/18/2005 8:16:46 AM

Is that from the Onion, Mago?

No, Judith, here!

5959. jexster - 6/18/2005 8:17:43 PM

Bye Bye Empire, Bye Bye
Taliban hold 31; U.S. envoy clashes with Pakistan

Pass Georgie his pacifier please.

5960. alistairConnor - 6/19/2005 4:36:49 AM

You're quite right, Marc-Albert.

The French left are Blair's useful idiots. It was always clear that a French No to the constitution would deliver Europe, bound and gagged, to a triumphant Blair. Call me Cassandra, nobody listened to me.

On the other hand, his unseemly haggling over Thatcher's discount has seriously undermined any high moral ground that he would have had... it's clear that in the current climate, every European leader is going to pork-barrel for all he's worth, in the Euro arena.

The result will be an incredible shrinking budget; the preservation of French farm subsidies, the English rebate, regional aids for Spain and Greece; and what does that add up to?

Peanuts for Poland, Slovakia, etc etc etc... moral bankruptcy for the EU.

5961. PelleNilsson - 6/19/2005 9:17:56 AM

I think recent events have created so much bad karma that nothing significant will happen until 2007 when Blair and Chirac (certainly), Schröder (probably) and Berlusconi (hopefully) are gone. Berlusconi, by the way, has been invisible both on the constitution and on the budget, at least in the media coverage here.

5962. alistairConnor - 6/19/2005 3:23:07 PM

The problem with that, Pelle, is that Blair will be replaced, presumably, by Brown, and Chirac by Sarkozy. Both are considerably worse in terms of Europe.

5963. PelleNilsson - 6/20/2005 2:21:47 AM

I don't think UK will change its EU policy much with Brown at the helm, but it appears that Blair's uncompromising stand over the rebate generates some considerable aggro. It will be interesting to see how he handles that the next six months.

As for Sarkozy, two years is a long time in French politics. He may yet destroy himself.

5964. Ulgine Barrows - 6/20/2005 2:26:10 AM

Why is two years is a long time in French politics?

5965. Ulgine Barrows - 6/20/2005 2:28:04 AM

As opposed to 6 months USA, 1 month Brazilian?

5966. PelleNilsson - 6/20/2005 2:34:48 AM

Exactly.

5967. PelleNilsson - 6/20/2005 2:37:20 AM

More seriously, it is my impression that in Europe, at least western Europe, French public opinion is the most volatile. I may be wrong.

5968. Ulgine Barrows - 6/20/2005 3:06:06 AM

Interesting fissure, must be fun to change back and forth!

5969. alistairconnor - 6/20/2005 3:16:18 AM

As for Sarkozy, two years is a long time in French politics. He may yet destroy himself.

Here's hoping. But he's the smartest punk on the block, by a long way. And he's got Chirac by the danglers. In the last few days, he's made some pretty incendiary protectionist-type remarks, and nobody can call him to account for it.

5970. PelleNilsson - 6/20/2005 3:28:59 AM

What's his background? Is he a grande école man?

5971. alistairconnor - 6/20/2005 3:45:43 AM

Yes: law and Sciences-Po. Full-time politician since he left school.

5973. PelleNilsson - 6/21/2005 11:24:42 AM

I moved a mega-post of jexster's to AmPol.

5974. jexster - 6/21/2005 2:02:48 PM

Fine by me...I was just waving the red flag at the NeoCrazy bull.

Wanted to see if I could get TD to charge into the Lies Bull ring...

Message # 7406 in thread 155

5975. jexster - 6/21/2005 2:04:44 PM

China's of no concern to Europe anyway...right?

5976. PelleNilsson - 6/21/2005 3:15:34 PM

We don't obsess about it.

5977. jexster - 6/21/2005 5:29:01 PM

OK EuroTrash, the whole world runs on Brussels Sprouts futures..

The End of a Europe at Peace?
By Ivo Daalder

The crisis that has befallen Europe after the double shock of the French and Dutch rejections of the European Union constitution and the subsequent failure of its leaders to agree on a budget is likely to be deeper, more lasting, and of greater significance than many in Europe and here appear to realize. For the crisis not only raises serious question about the long-term viability of European integration, but also undermines the central pillar of the post-Cold War European stabilization effort: the prospect, open to all European countries, of eventual EU membership. If the enlargement of the Union’s membership is now for all practical purposes dead, then so may the prospect of continuing to build a Europe that is whole and free and at peace. And that is something all of us must worry about.

Continue Reading Here...

Touch the monkey! I'd like you to touch it!

Degenerates

5978. jexster - 6/21/2005 5:44:10 PM

Personally I favor another Entente Cordiale...(or perhaps better herzliches Abkommen) followed by subjugation of inferior nations into a New Continental System...

Been my dream since ever I can remember...

Wanna touch my monkey?

5979. Macnas - 6/22/2005 1:19:53 AM

You keep your monkey to yourself now, we know where it's been.

5980. alistairconnor - 6/22/2005 3:23:53 AM

The article by Ivo Daalder makes some good points, though it's rather overblown. The discussion is excellent.

5981. Macnas - 6/22/2005 3:56:19 AM

Indeed, the discussion makes better reading than the article.

I have to say, I'm kind of surprised at the level of interest in the EU from outside (read yankee). I'm also surprised at the level of doom saying and dire predictions for the european future.

How did NATO get on the agenda? What the hell has it got to do with the EU? Or with anything anymore?

5982. alistairconnor - 6/22/2005 4:29:57 AM

They're interested in NATO because the US is relevant to NATO, and not to the EU... it was certainly a player in the 90s. I guess the Central Euro countries have a sentimental attachment to it.

The vestigial presence of US troops on the continent is an anomaly, but harmless enough.

5983. Macnas - 6/22/2005 4:37:27 AM

True enough, it doesn't bother me for the most part.

5984. PelleNilsson - 6/22/2005 5:22:02 AM

I think much of the yankee interest in EU's perceived misfortunes is rooted in a bit of Schadenfeude. No harm in that, I suppose. But now that Swedish PM Göran Persson has teamed up with Tony Blair to reform EU's budgetary priorities things will never be the same again. Tony has the brains, Göran has the body. Invincibility guaranteed.

5985. alistairconnor - 6/22/2005 7:06:39 AM

Now you've got Jexster frantically Googling for photos of the missing Persson...

5986. Macnas - 6/22/2005 7:10:32 AM

Persson, he's kind of a Hans Blix type of bloke, isn't he?

Couldn't be bothered Googling to be honest..

5987. PelleNilsson - 6/22/2005 8:59:08 AM

The Invincible Team:

5988. Marc-Albert - 6/22/2005 3:36:44 PM

5989. Marc-Albert - 6/23/2005 5:06:03 AM

International male sex symbolism has a name, and it’s not Göran

Silvio and Tarja

"When you seek a result, it's necessary to use all available weapons and therefore I brushed up all my playboy skills, now from the distant past, and I used a series of tender pleas to the president."

Thursday, 23 June, 2005, 10:00 GMT 11:00 UK

Italy's Silvio Berlusconi has stunned the Finnish government by saying he used his "playboy" charms on the country's president, Tarja Halonen.

The Finnish government called in the Italian ambassador over the issue.

Mr Berlusconi's gaffe followed Italy's success in hosting the European Food Safety Authority, which opened in Parma on Tuesday, instead of Finland.

Adding fuel to the flames, Mr Berlusconi poured scorn on Finnish food, saying he had had to "endure" it.

"There is absolutely no comparison between culatello (speciality ham) from Parma and smoked reindeer," Mr Berlusconi was quoted as saying.

His comments drew criticism from Italian opposition MPs, who called on him to apologise.

But Mr Berlusconi's spokesman said there was no diplomatic crisis and it was simply "a nice thing to say; a way of showing friendliness at a festive occasion".

In Helsinki, Finnish Prime Minister Matthi Vanhanen said: "The matter is closed; I have nothing against Italian food; I love spaghetti, as long as it's not too spicy."

5990. PelleNilsson - 6/23/2005 11:02:12 AM

What a total buffoon that fellow is. And vain too. Last year (I think it was) he was absent from public life purportedly undergoing unspecified medical tests and treatments. In fact he had cosmetic surgery including liposuction (ass trimming, it is said). That has had an aftermath as BBC reports.

An art work purportedly made from excess fat from Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi has been sold for $18,000 (£9,862).

Switzerland-based artist Gianni Motti claims to have bought the fat from a clinic where the leader had a liposuction operation performed.

Motti gave it the title Clean Hands as a reference to an anti-corruption campaign of the 1990s. It reflects the artist's view of the current government.

"I came up with the idea of because soap is made of pig fat, and I thought how much more appropriate it would be if people washed their hands using a piece of Berlusconi," Motti told Weltwoche magazine.

5991. robertjayb - 6/23/2005 1:43:19 PM

Pew poll favors China over U.S.

WASHINGTON (AP) -- The United States' image is so tattered overseas two years after the Iraq invasion that China, which is ruled by a communist dictatorship, is viewed more favorably than the U.S. in many countries, an international poll found.
.................................................

Eleven of the 16 countries surveyed by the Pew Research Center -- Britain, France, Germany, Spain, the Netherlands, Russia, Turkey, Pakistan, Lebanon, Jordan and Indonesia -- had a more favorable view of China than the U.S.

India and Poland were more upbeat about the U.S., while Canadians are as likely to see China favorably as they were the United States.

5993. PelleNilsson - 6/23/2005 2:35:38 PM

I deleted an ill-tempered post of mine.

5994. alistairConnor - 6/23/2005 4:14:24 PM

I'm tempted to say that that is an abuse of privelege...

...

... but I won't.

5995. jexster - 6/23/2005 4:43:43 PM

What was it Pelle..I like ill tempered posts!

ah jeez..he done been "born-again" or something?

My earlier post arguing that EU enlargement is at an end and that the consequence thereof are more profound than many presume has generated a lot of interest, with EU scholars in particular shocked that I could suggest this. To give you a flavor of the argument, I am reproducing an email exchange I have had with Jolyon Howorth, Jean Monnet Professor of European Politics at the University of Bath and now a visiting professor at Yale, over the past 24 hours.

Ivo Daalder continued here...

5996. jexster - 6/23/2005 4:46:30 PM

MA...I think its a gay thing

5997. wonkers2 - 6/29/2005 8:04:43 AM

Surprise (to W2 at least)--Ireland's per capita GDP is higher than Germany, UK and France. Here.

5998. jexster - 6/29/2005 8:46:28 PM

Whilst boi Bush fiddlefucks...

Fidel and mah main man Hugo...

They goin for Latin America and the erl.....

Castro, Chavez Talk Building Oil Alliance

Cuban President Fidel Castro joined his close friend and ally President Hugo Chavez of Venezuela on Tuesday to discuss a plan to provide the Caribbean with more oil on preferential terms.

and so too the Red Menace/Yellow Peril

Can there be any doubt?

Pax Americana is Over

Immanuel Wallerstein is a Prophet

5999. concerned - 6/29/2005 9:18:18 PM

Ok for

6000. concerned - 6/29/2005 9:18:34 PM

6k?

6001. jexster - 6/30/2005 6:58:48 PM

When China Owns Our Utilities

6002. alistairconnor - 7/1/2005 4:03:58 AM

The great G8 are gathering, for a summit with principal subjects :

World poverty
Global warming.

Nothing remarkable about that! they are, after all, the two most obvious problems facing humanity...

But that is exactly what's so extraordinary : over the last few years, the movers and shakers have been holding summit after summit obsessing about the minor problem of terrorism. It drove the real problems off the agenda for several years; I feared that it would continue to do so for a while yet.

It looks like the nightmare is over. Possibly what has changed is the US failure in Iraq. This failure has undoubtedly worsened the global terrorism situation; yet manifestly, the world hasn't come crashing down around our ears. And US credibility has suffered so much that they can't continue imposing their delusional agenda.

Reality is back.

6003. alistairconnor - 7/1/2005 5:51:34 AM

... and Blair seems to have learned something...

Tony Blair is contemplating an unprecedented rift with the US over climate change at the G8 summit next week, which will lead to a final communique agreed by seven countries with President George Bush left out on a limb

6004. concerned - 7/1/2005 8:35:42 AM

Re. 6002 -

At least there's something to be done about world poverty, so it shouldn't be a total waste.

Why do you affect to prefer Saddam's tyranny to the current democratic regime? But I forget. You Lefties are genetically predisposed to snuggle up to strong socialist dictators like Stalin, Mao and Hitler, against all common sense and to the infinite detriment of millions.

6005. jexster - 7/1/2005 10:42:27 AM

The current what?

6006. jexster - 7/1/2005 11:03:31 AM

Do you know what SCIRI is?

Do you know who runs the new IraQi government?

Do you know who runs Basra and most of Southern Iraq where some 80% of the nation's oil reserves are located?

Do you know who the US forces IraQ are fighting to defend?

Message # 3166 in thread 161 for all the answers

6007. alistairConnor - 7/1/2005 2:23:37 PM

Why do you affect to prefer...

Off-subject. I'm just pointing out that the "war on terrorism", and a fortiori the war in Iraq, are minor sideshows, which have distracted attention for too long from far more serious issues.

And it's going to be seriously entertaining to watch GWB wriggle and squirm at the G8 in a minority of one, proudly proclaiming that the earth is flat, evolution never happened and there's no global warming.

6008. jexster - 7/2/2005 9:01:25 PM

From all the Talk, You'd Think the EP gone the Way of the League of Nations...

The Foreign Affairs Committee of the European Parliament has called for all foreign troops in Iraq to be replaced by a United Nations-led peace keeping force. It urged a trans-Atlantic (i.e. US and European) sharing of burdens in Iraq. It said that the troops currently in Iraq should gradually be replaced by a UN force. Moreover, it called for many more countries to begin training Iraqi troops, perhaps bringing them to their own countries for that purpose. The proposal will be debated on the floor of the European Parliament in Strasburg next month.

As regular readers know, this proposal resembles the one Informed Comment put forward about two weeks ago.
Cole

6009. Marc-Albert - 7/3/2005 7:15:51 AM

Hmm..Hardly any European know about, or care about, what the "Foreign Affairs Committee of the European Parliament" calls for on any subject.

In the EU, foreign affairs remain the sovereign prerogative of each member states and I'm afraid foreign ministers of France, Spain, the U.K. or Germany have hiterto shown scant interest in the l;ikes and dislike of the said obscure "Foreign Affairs Committee of the European Parliament".

And the recent French "non" ensures that this situation will prevail for long time.

6010. alistairconnor - 7/4/2005 9:35:39 AM

US close to climate change concessions
The United States is edging towards important concessions on climate change at this week's G8 summit, it has been revealed.

US President George Bush is now ready to concede that climate change has scientific basis, and that collective action is required over global warming.

Talk about selling out the base!

I'll bet you feel betrayed, Con.

6011. PelleNilsson - 7/4/2005 10:32:40 AM

From The Economist's Charlemagne column:

Introducing the Louis XVI prize, for being out of touch

EVERY year the city of Aachen, in Germany, awards the Charlemagne prize, to the person whom it deems to have done the most to promote the cause of European unity. This column has decided to start a new award: the Louis XVI prize, to be given to the Eu

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