Election 2004

The thread for discussing the upcoming elections in the USA: local, state and national.

Marjoribanks bet me $200.00 Bush would not win the '04 election. I've encouraged him to pay up now, but I guess he wants to hope against hope.

Don't forget, Marj.

2. vonKreedon - 1/14/2004 6:30:55 PM

I will have a better description up as soon as I figure out how to do so. I don't intend for this thread to just be about the Presidential contest, but any of the US elections; e.g., Congress, Governor, etc.

I do not want this thread to be a dumping ground for other, non-election related, political issues. For examples, talking about how the Dems/Repubs can best spin/respond to events in Iraq with an eye to the elections is fine; talking about whether or not we should go to Mars or sanction Gay marriages is not.

3. concerned - 1/14/2004 7:29:05 PM

The Dean of Mean for Democrat presidential nomination.

4. Al D - 1/14/2004 7:29:21 PM

Banks bet $200 against Bush in '04? Did you give him odds? The odds on Kucinich are something like 32 -1 against winning any primary. My ex is a big supporter of his. I told her to bet all the money she has left out of what she extorted out of me in the divorce. I told her if she put up enough dough, I'd give her 1,000-1. It should be obvious she is not too bright since she let me get away. Maybe it is evident from the fact she married me in the first place. Is it a coincidence that marry starts with mar?

5. jexster - 1/14/2004 7:30:29 PM

Ah I get it...issues discussed in political strategic terms good, policy terms bad..

OK here ya go..

GWOT Line of Advance: Demos Should Attack from the Right

6. concerned - 1/14/2004 7:36:21 PM

rdb -

Good luck getting your winnings out of marj.

7. concerned - 1/14/2004 7:52:47 PM

Ex-S.C. Gov. Beasley Enters Senate Race

Beasley served one term as governor before losing to Democrat Jim Hodges in a 1998 election known for heavy spending from the video-gambling industry that Beasley said he would outlaw.

Beasley, 46, also was battered by his stand to remove the Confederate flag that flew atop the Statehouse dome.

Beasley sounds like a straight shooter and just the guy to help wash the Democrat Jim Crow legacy out of SC politics.

8. jexster - 1/14/2004 7:58:34 PM

The New Republic endorsement of Likud Lieberman caused huge dissention in-house. My impression was that the Beinhart decided by fiat. So they have published dissenting editorials.

This is from the pro-Clark one and shows the problems and promise of a Demo attack from the right:

the question was never whether the world would be better off without Saddam--of course it is. The question was whether the costs of ousting him outweighed the benefits. And, on that question, the jury is still out.

After all, the costs have been significant: the lives of 483 American soldiers (as well as thousands of Iraqi civilians), $150 billion, an immeasurable loss of U.S. authority abroad, and the diversion of military and diplomatic resources from other threats. (Newsweek, noting that Special Forces units were pulled out of Afghanistan in early 2002 for redeployment to the Middle East, reported, "Privately, some U.S. officials acknowledge that the search for weapons of mass destruction in Iraq may have seriously drained away resources from the hunt for [Osama] bin Laden.") As Clark has argued, "The administration zeroed in on Iraq. But focusing on Iraq made no sense--if the real goal was to protect the United States either from weapons of mass destruction or terrorism. The hundred tons of loosely guarded nuclear-bomb-making material and bioweapons in Russia presents a far more tempting target for terrorists. But this administration has not made that a priority. The nuclear programs of Iran and North Korea were more advanced and more threatening than Iraq's, but for months they paid little attention. Their actions made no strategic sense; they downplayed the greater threats and exaggerated the lesser one."

Despite its inherent logic, this critique seems lost on those Democratic candidates-

9. jexster - 1/14/2004 8:05:57 PM

Well that is exactly where I found myself in 1970-1974 first as an anti-war student taking National Security policy emphasis for my Pol Sci major (the Left didn't understand Hawk Talk..iocomprhensible). Only "militarists" could appreciate how devastating a classically cast strategic and tactical critique was but by the time it started to emerge in the debate, the voices were too few nnd their investment in strategic folly too substantial for them to bother.

I am rather more hopeful now, but I did encounter some of the same blank stares when I held forth in conversations at anti-war demonstrations.

I have to confess, some on the Left still just don't get it but the radical neocon loons have made our case oh so much easier this time around.

10. jexster - 1/14/2004 8:08:28 PM

Today though you'll find anti-war hawk talk in the US Naval Institute's' Proceedings not to mention in the halls of the Carlisle Barracks AWC

11. jexster - 1/14/2004 8:11:00 PM

Jim Crow can now be seen now wearing a respectable Republican cloth coat in the Palmetto State, TD.

12. winstonsmith - 1/14/2004 8:22:49 PM

For what it's worth, here are some thoughts on the election.

Dean: The Republicans will cast him as being much more liberal than he really is and will play upon peoples fears of another attack to undermine trust in his ability to handle the job.

Clark: He's not perfect but he's smart and will be able to challange Bush on the war and national security.

Edwards: Runs a pretty classy camaign compared to most of the others.

Kucinich: I really like him but he has no chance.

Overall, I think a Clark/Edwards ticket would have the best chance against Bush.

WS

13. winstonsmith - 1/14/2004 8:24:17 PM

For what it's worth, here are some thoughts on the election.

Dean: The Republicans will cast him as being much more liberal than he really is and will play upon peoples fears of another attack to undermine trust in his ability to handle the job.

Clark: He's not perfect but he's smart and will be able to challange Bush on the war and national security.

Edwards: Runs a pretty classy camaign compared to most of the others.

Kucinich: I really like him but he has no chance.

Overall, I think a Clark/Edwards ticket would have the best chance against Bush.

WS

14. winstonsmith - 1/14/2004 8:25:36 PM

Sorry about the double post. Can posts be removed?

15. rdbrewer - 1/14/2004 8:29:15 PM

Don't worry about it. Just be careful clicking "post". And don't recycle the screen when you have words in the box. I don't know why, but that seems to cause a double post too.

16. winstonsmith - 1/14/2004 8:29:47 PM

Thanks.

17. rdbrewer - 1/14/2004 8:29:49 PM

Con'd, I'm sure Marj is an honorable man, as am I.

18. rdbrewer - 1/14/2004 8:34:36 PM

Al D, we went straight up on it.

19. arkymalarky - 1/14/2004 9:04:45 PM

Hey Winston!

If Dems don't nominate Clark I think RD will be able to collect. Evidently Con'd does too.

20. jexster - 1/14/2004 9:05:14 PM

Well I'll be damned....maybe they are getting it after all.

The Axis of War: Cheney, Rumsfeld and Wolfowitz
"America, Iraq and Presidential Leadership." Sen. Edward M Kennedy's Address to the Center for American Progress
Full Text - Salon





"We cannot simply walk away from the wreckage of a war we never should have fought so that President Bush can wage a political campaign based on dubious boasts of success."

21. winstonsmith - 1/14/2004 10:29:31 PM

Hi Jexster and Arky.

Jex, I agree. It will be really tough for anyone to beat Bush. I think Clark is the only one with a decent chance.

What do you guys think about the idea of Clark/Edwards ticket? Would somebody else be better for VP?

22. winstonsmith - 1/14/2004 10:33:40 PM

BTW, I listened to some of Kennedy's speach on the Sean Hannity radio show. Sean was putting it down but I was thinking it was great.

23. wonkers2 - 1/14/2004 10:36:16 PM

Clark/Edwards would be good, but I prefer Dean/Edwards or Dean/Clark. The idea of someone going from General to President doesn't work for me. It didn't with Eisenhower and it doesn't with Clark. It's not as bad as going from Hollywood (Schwartzenegger) to governor or president. Politics is a profession like any other that benefits from experience. Nobody would knowingly want to be the first patient of a heart surgeon. So, why subject the country to a neophyte? Nothing like starting at the top.

24. jayackroyd - 1/14/2004 10:39:01 PM

Ah I get it...issues discussed in political strategic terms good, policy terms bad..


That's what I was never able to achieve in politics thread. I hope vK can do it here. You know, rather than spinning how your guy didn't fuck up, saying that he did fuck up, and how that was gonna affect the race.

Like I'm at this point committed to Dean as the best anti-Bush candidate. But I'd rather talk about Gephardt's attacks today from an intellectual (look at the timing, look how hard they were, and look at the calendar) way than in a pro Dean way.

It looks like desperation from Gephardt, to me. But it also looks like Dean has peaked too early, in Iowa, and in NH, and that Kerry and Gephardt smell blood. Beware of Edwards. His message is good, centrist, southern, and if Dean doesn't meet the high expectations he has created, SC may be very interesting.

25. Absensia - 1/14/2004 10:48:01 PM

Where's Estes Kefauver when we need him?

26. arkymalarky - 1/15/2004 12:06:28 AM

We're not trying to go from General to President, Wonk. We're trying to get from Bush to someone else.

27. winstonsmith - 1/15/2004 12:08:11 AM

"Clark/Edwards would be good, but I prefer Dean/Edwards or Dean/Clark. The idea of someone going from General to President doesn't work for me. It didn't with Eisenhower and it doesn't with Clark"

By better, I mean more electable. Eisenhower was elected.

I would prefer Kucinich.

28. robertjayb - 1/15/2004 12:53:41 AM

Carol Moseley Braun will drop out of the nomination race tomorrow and endorse Howard Dean, the NYTimes reports.

29. winstonsmith - 1/15/2004 1:15:11 AM

Michael Moore Endorses Clark

30. concerned - 1/15/2004 1:23:12 AM

Re. 11 -

What alternate universe do you live in? Jim Crow &trade is a wholly owned subsidiary of Democrat Plantation, Inc., held in perpetuity.

31. concerned - 1/15/2004 1:30:52 AM

Kucinich's own crusade

The problem with Democrats today is that they don't follow their hearts enough.

32. vonKreedon - 1/15/2004 1:50:25 AM

Wonk wrote: Politics is a profession like any other that benefits from experience. Nobody would knowingly want to be the first patient of a heart surgeon. So, why subject the country to a neophyte?

Clark has more experience successfully performing executive tasks than any of the other candidates, even Gov. Dean. Gov. Dean has the experience of running a state with the bureaucracy and associated rules/regulations and in-fighting, but a state does not have allies and a military. Gen. Clark, as CinC Souther Command and then SACEUR has both the experience of running a state-like bureaucracy responsible for the health, education, housing and safety of the community, but he also has the experience of dealing with allies and military.

As far as being a politician, while Clark has never run an electoral campaign before, the essense of a politician's job happens after the campaign, the deal making, arm twisting, cajoling, negotiating, and finally leadership are really the art and profession of politics. One does not rise in the military to the level Clark acheived without excellent political skills in this sense.

33. wonkers2 - 1/15/2004 7:30:18 AM

Do you suppose Michael Moore is angling for a cabinet slot with Clark?

34. Magoseph - 1/15/2004 8:45:03 AM

The most drastic error the administration made, in my opinion, was not to extend the unemployment compensation. The piddling amound of money required to extend it would have restored some sense of balance in this administration.

The strong stock market is hurting Bush in a big way. It confirms the position taken by his critics that through his policies the economy is being stimulated at he expense of the unemployed and the poor. It also promotes a growing realization that the corporate boom to some extend is being driven by the lack of bargaining power in the work force. As a result, every time the market makes new highs, these points are driven home.

As Bush continues to throw billions and billions around, the frustation accelerates and is rapidly translated into support for anyone who can reverse his priorities.
Please comment!

35. concerned - 1/15/2004 10:08:50 AM

How much below 5.7% unemployment would we need to go for this to be canceled out, IYO?

36. Wombat - 1/15/2004 10:11:15 AM

Concerned doesn't seem to understand that a fall in the unemployment rate combined with little or no job creation means that people are taking themselves out of the job market (giving up). He would be wise not to keep touting this as an indicator of a healthy economy.

37. concerned - 1/15/2004 10:15:07 AM

Wombats doesn't seem to understand that the rate of job creation is not an immutable constant - if the economic pickup continues as many forecast throughout the coming year, job creation is likely to surge. And I have not touted the unemployment rate as an indicator of the health of the economy for several months, IAC .

38. PelleNilsson - 1/15/2004 10:30:26 AM

To come up with the idea that anybody, anybody at all could possibly regard the rate of job creation as "an immutable constant" says a lot about concerned's grasp of these issues.

I think it is a statistical fluke but it will be interesting to see the growth figure for the fourth quarter.

39. concerned - 1/15/2004 10:41:40 AM

Pelle wouldn't comprehend sarcasm if it had him by his nose.

40. concerned - 1/15/2004 10:42:28 AM

What I'm saying, Pelle, is that Wombat was playing the fool, but you are one.

41. PelleNilsson - 1/15/2004 11:00:41 AM

Pretended sarcasm. The well-known escape route.

42. vonKreedon - 1/15/2004 11:16:16 AM

Guys - Please take a look at the thread guidelines and then get back to discussing the elections instead of each other's personality defects.

43. TheWizardOfWhimsy - 1/15/2004 11:29:52 AM

I heard Kerry make a stump speech on last night's News Hour and I definitely noticed a much more effective speech, delivered with conviction and passion. Edwards has grown in his canditate skills as well—it's becoming a genuine horse race, overshadowing Rove's obvious ploys to steal the news cycle limelight.

44. Magoseph - 1/15/2004 11:46:48 AM

Maybe Kerry read P.J. O'Rourke's article in the Atlantic: "Speaking of the Candidates" Our correspondent looks much too closely at the current crop of stump speeches.

45. robertjayb - 1/15/2004 11:48:42 AM

Spouse saw Kerry on C-Span yesterday and was much taken. He is now her candidate.

Of course she has always been a fool for a handsome man.

heh

46. jexster - 1/15/2004 12:02:15 PM

Ruy Teixeira: The State of Public Opinion

President Bush is preparing in his State of the Union address to tout his accomplishments in a number of areas, as well as offer some new initiatives. He will, of course, put the best possible spin on these accomplishments and insist that Americans are happy with those accomplishments and want to continue moving in the direction he has taken the country.

But there’s another side to the public opinion story here. In reality, Bush faces a public skeptical in important ways of what he has done and where he proposes to go. Here’s an issue-by-issue guide to this skepticism in key areas likely to be addressed by the president (polling data cited are the most recent available for a particular question).

Iraq

• Twice as many Americans (31 percent to 15 percent) believe the capture of Saddam will increase the threat of terrorism against the US than believe it will decrease that threat (CBS News/New York Times poll, December 21-22, 2003)

[Teixeira follows with the latest detailed data on issues that will be central to the Campaign]

47. TheWizardOfWhimsy - 1/15/2004 12:02:45 PM

Handsome?—if you find Bloodhounds appealing!



I sent his campaign a donation early on, but switched my support (and many more donations) to Dean because Kerry supported Bush on his Iraq War. Now, however, I'm starting to wonder if he supported Bush because he was indeed fooled by the many lies of Dubya&Co..

As a Vet, I'm torn because Kerry showed amazing courage in Nam. I think when people learn of his story and his actions there, perceptions will change with regard to him being an " elitist yankee"— especially if he teams up with Edwards—he may have a much better shot than Dean.

48. vonKreedon - 1/15/2004 12:03:17 PM

Jex - So what do you think, as opposed to what Teixeira thinks?

49. vonKreedon - 1/15/2004 12:04:34 PM

Wiz - Why Kerry vs. Clark? What is it about Clark that leaves him out of your consideration?

And - What is it that people like about Dean? Why does he have such support?

50. jayackroyd - 1/15/2004 12:09:06 PM

Mags, did you like that PJ piece? I think he's hilarious in general; Eat the Rich is both funny and informative. But the atlantic article I found boring.

51. TheWizardOfWhimsy - 1/15/2004 12:13:05 PM

Wiz - Why Kerry vs. Clark? What is it about Clark that leaves him out of your consideration?

I don't trust Clark. His comments praising GW, then becoming a lobbyist and getting $800,000 in fees and not telling CNN about it when he hired on as an Iraqi War consultant. I think he's more ambitious and pragmatic than he is inspiring and courageous.

And - What is it that people like about Dean? Why does he have such support?

In a word: scrappy or in two: aggressive and determined. Dean would be up against thugs and those two qualities are a prerequisite in this upcoming campaign, in my opinion. But if Kerry starts to find the spine he exhibited in Viet Nam, I'll support him in a heartbeat.

52. jayackroyd - 1/15/2004 12:16:52 PM

I can say what I like about Dean.

I don't think that any of the others, with the exception of Clark, have a chance to win in November. Bush has won the triangulation battle, Rove having gone to school on the Clinton years. Gephardt is Mondale, the midwestern labor liberal with a message for a previous generation. Kerry just doesn't know how to campaign. Lieberman is Bush lite, and can't go to war over the stock market scandals, because he's a big part of the problem.

Dean can attack Bush on the war from the right. He can attack him on the budget from the right. And he can attack, which is gonna be an essential element of this campaign. The RNC threw down the gauntlet with the ad accusing "some" of being against the war on terror. Dean and Clark are the only ones who can pick up that gauntlet.

I don't like Clark because I think he's too green, and it shows. I have a personal dislike from reading his book about Kosovo, as I've said before. He's self-agrandizing in a way that grates on me.

Finally, his greenness has led him into the clutches of the consultants. Bush's consultants are better than any of the democratic consultants.

Dean/Zinni.

That's the ticket that could beat Bush.

53. robertjayb - 1/15/2004 12:18:31 PM

Four-way statistical dead heat...(John Zogby)

Jan. 15 (Bloomberg) -- Senator John Kerry edged into a tie with former Vermont Governor Howard Dean and Representative Richard Gephardt in a poll of Iowa Democrats, four days before they hold the first contest for the party's presidential nomination.

Kerry has support from 22 percent of likely Iowa caucus voters, a single percentage point lead over Dean and Gephardt, according to a Zogby International poll for MSNBC and Reuters. Senator John Edwards is fourth with 17 percent. The spread between the top four candidates is within the survey's 4.5 percentage point margin of error.

54. TheWizardOfWhimsy - 1/15/2004 12:21:24 PM

It's a long way to November but there a many things that will change the political landscape that needs to factored in. A case in point . . .

September 11: Will Terror Panel's Report Be an Election Issue?

By Michael Isikoff
Newsweek

Jan. 19 issue - A new political battle is brewing over the federal panel investigating the 9/11 terror attacks, NEWSWEEK has learned. Facing a May deadline that many members no longer think they can meet, the panel is weighing asking Congress for more time to prepare its report. Some members want a few extra months—which would push back its release into the summer. But the prospect of unleashing the report in the middle of the election season is creating anxiety inside the White House. Some aides fear that the document will contain fresh ammo for Democrats eager to prove Bush was inattentive to terrorism warnings prior to 9/11. As a result, Bush officials recently floated a surprise strategic switch: they might OK a delay, but only if the report were put off until December, thereby "taking it out of the election," said a commission source. Late last week, though, the White House told the commission it was sticking with its longstanding position of no give on the May deadline. . .

55. jexster - 1/15/2004 12:21:56 PM

Question for Dean - How Solid a Base?

Good question. He's already lost me to the Strumabeitlung...er C Corps mein fuehrer...er Mister President

56. TheWizardOfWhimsy - 1/15/2004 12:22:26 PM

a=are . . . to BE factored in!

57. wonkers2 - 1/15/2004 12:22:37 PM

Dean is the only one of the viable candidates who was an early opponent of the war. Also, his tax and economic and health care proposals make a lot of sense. The election isn't or shouldn't be a personality, grooming or spouse contest. However, Dean is more spontaneous and willing to take a clean position on the issues. When Kerry is asked a question he thinks to long and comes up with answers that are too complicated and transparently designed to avoid alienating anybody. Dean comes across as not worrying so much about pleasing everybody.

58. vonKreedon - 1/15/2004 12:28:21 PM

Wiz - The current campaign against Clark seems to come down to "He's not a real Democrat." Personally I don't care if someone is a "real Democrat", I care about two things: 1) what policies does the candidate propose 2) Does the candidate have a chance in hell of defeating Bush. On both these counts Clark, IMO, comes out well ahead of the rest o the pack.

Further, the fact that Clark voted for Reagan and is willing to be nice to the Repubs is a significant advantage that none of the "real Democrats" possess. In order for the Dems to win against Bush they must capture a majority of the swing voters. The "real Democrats" are going to vote Dem if for no other reason than to vote against Bush, so the contest is for the swing. A large portion of this consituency also voted for Reagan, and other Repubs, and are known as "Reagan Democrats". Clark has a far better chance to appeal to this block than does Dean who has gone out of his way to alienate them with his "I'm from the Democratic wing..." campaign theme.

59. wonkers2 - 1/15/2004 12:29:56 PM

I was an early supporter of Kerry, but he didn't inspire me. I like the way Dean and Clark and Edwards handle themselves better than Kerry and Lieberman. And I don't agree with Gephart's protectionist trade policies. It won't work to be an internationalist on anti-terrorism, arms control, the environment and a trade protectionist. I want more complete internationalist.

60. vonKreedon - 1/15/2004 12:31:45 PM

Wonk - Clark was an early opponent of the war. What first attracted me to Clark was his analysis on CNN. He was consistent and clear that this war was elective and unwise. Finally, in the last couple of weeks before the invasion, he did say that the administration had pushed the nation into a corner and it would now cause us more strategic harm to not go to war. And I agree with this, though I don't think that either of us thought that the administration would be so incompetent in the aftermath of the invasion.

61. jayackroyd - 1/15/2004 12:36:29 PM

58

So you reject this cycle's conventional wisdom, that it's not about the swing. It's about turning out the base.

If you buy that (and I to some extent do), then Dean's gonna do two things. 1) Energize the base 2) Add to the base.

I think Bush is endangering his base, right now. The libertarian conservatives are starting to freak out about the budget, and yesterday's 12 billion dollars to open the door to 200 billion or more in manned space research is not gonna reassure them. The racist wingnuts are not gonna be happy about the immigration proposal. He's been all hat, no cattle on the movement conservative issues. And it's time for him to move the center.

We'll see. They are very savvy campaigners. There was an interesting piece in the Times recently about Bush campaign staffers showing up on local talk radio shows around the country. They are creative in reaching the base in stealth ways like that. Dean can counter that with his internet strategies--although that seems to have peaked at the moment.

62. wonkers2 - 1/15/2004 12:38:10 PM

Seems to me Clark has waffled a bit on Iraq. But I've liked Clark ever since I first saw him on television during the Kosovo, Bosnia period when he was head of NATO. He's probably the smartest career officer to come down the pike since WWII. As I said he's my first choice for VP after Dean wins the nomination. Dean-Clark would be an unbeatable ticket, although there could be friction if they were elected because they both have strong personalities.

63. jayackroyd - 1/15/2004 12:40:04 PM

60

I will take this moment to make my one annual "I told you so."

In March, as the war began, I said that I didn't believe that this administration could handle the aftermath.

Politically, that may not matter. I think people have become numb to the casualty figures. They'll paint this as a tremendous victory for the Iraqi people no matter what happens, and they've got 200 million dollars to buy canvas and oils. Only, IMO, Dean and Clark have a chance to counter that message.

64. robertjayb - 1/15/2004 12:49:14 PM

They'll paint this as a tremendous victory for the Iraqi people no matter what happens...

See Riverbend's blog, linked in Conflict...

65. robertjayb - 1/15/2004 1:06:11 PM

They'll paint this as a tremendous victory for the Iraqi people no matter what happens...

See Riverbend's blog, linked in Conflict...

66. robertjayb - 1/15/2004 1:15:25 PM

Scuse the double, please...

Maybe more than you will want to know about how the Texas congressional races are shaping up after the GOP/Tom DeLay gerrymander is available here from Off the Kuff.


BTW Stenholm and Frost have endorsed General Clark.

67. TheWizardOfWhimsy - 1/15/2004 1:35:20 PM

58. vonKreedon - 1/15/2004 12:28:21 PM


vK- I don't have a lot of time to respond fully, but I disagree, in part, with some of your views. I think there is another factor besides "swing voters" and Reagan Democrats.
I think there is a morass of complacent non-voters out there who'll vote now because they're tired and afraid of Bush's foreign and domestic policies.

With regard to Clark, you mislabel my rationale for not trusting Clark (who is probably as smart as Jimmy Carter who wasn't as great a president as he is a former president)—I don't find the man courageous or inspiring but rather ambitious and whater the hell I said above! ;-)

That will have to suffice for me, for now.

68. vonKreedon - 1/15/2004 1:43:16 PM

Appealing to the Swing - Part Deux:

Conventional wisdom, backed by polling, is that the US swing voter agrees with the Dems on domestic issues and with the Repubs on security issues. In the post-9/11 context security trumps domestic, so for the Dems to win they must be able to show that their candidate is better qualified than Bush to ensure US security. Dean cannot do this, only Clark is in a position to beat Bush on security issues.

69. jayackroyd - 1/15/2004 1:49:09 PM

Dean/Zinni trumps that argument.

70. vonKreedon - 1/15/2004 1:51:41 PM

Jay - I disagree because the strength must be at the top of the ticket. Further, Zinni is unknown to the electorate. Hell, Clark is just starting to be known.

71. jexster - 1/15/2004 2:09:31 PM

That's not what Teixeira thinks vK

If you bothered to read the link, that's what the American public thinks on any number of critical national issues according a compendium of latest polling results, provided as a service to you and readers of this thread.

So what's the question?

What do I think about how all this relates to the 2004 election? Some part of it?

Well I think that it suggest substantial weakness that the Democrats can exploit expecially Iraq/Foreign policy, health care, the economy, and control of the country by radical fanatics who have raped our national fisc for the benefit of their fat cat benefactors esp Big Erl 'n Gas.

Now what does it all boil down to? Perhaps that's your question.

1. I agree with my friend Charlie Cook whom I taught everything he knows (inside joke) - no matter who the Dems nominate this will be a close election.

2. Bush is vulnerable on foreign policy to attack from the right

3. The overarching theme for the Dems in 2004
Liars incompetents
incompetents liars
Lying incompetents

72. jayackroyd - 1/15/2004 2:11:51 PM

70

I see your point. But the attack dog guy is usually the veep. And on security issues the attacks are going to have to be unusually strong, and from the right.

The veep doesn't have to be a name guy, especially in an outsider run.

73. jexster - 1/15/2004 2:12:26 PM

and the Jexster Election Index for January 15, 2004

Google Bush/moron count - 105,000 up from 70,000 two weeks ago

74. jexster - 1/15/2004 2:13:38 PM

I THINK thar reflects the O'Neill expose

75. jayackroyd - 1/15/2004 2:33:12 PM

Talking points memo has a lengthy quote from Clark congressional testimony on the dangers of Iraq and the possible responses. the full transcript is also on the site.

It demonstrates that Clark has an eloquent, fully formed understanding of the nature of the problem, and a series of responses. And that the various quotes he's given that have been seen as contradictory are consistent with that testimony. For example:

First of all, I do believe that the United States diplomacy in the United Nations will be strengthened if the Congress can adopt a resolution expressing U.S. determination to act if the United Nations can not act. The use of force must remain a U.S. option under active consideration.

Such congressional resolution need not, at this point, authorize the use of force. The more focused the resolution on Iraq, the more focused it is on the problems of weapons of mass destruction. The greater its utility in the United Nations, the more nearly unanimous the resolution, the greater its utility is, the greater its impact is on the diplomatic efforts under way.

76. vonKreedon - 1/15/2004 5:27:13 PM

Regarding "Dean the Outsider", to continue a conversation form Politics.

Dean endorsers:
Gore, Sen. Harkin, The American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees (AFSCME), AFL-CIO, Service Employees International Union (SEIU), Ex-Sen. Paul Simon, Ex-Sen. Braun

Clark's endorsers:
Abenaki Nation, Rep. Ortiz, Rep. Frost, Charlie Stenholm, Rep. Gonzalez, Michael Moore, John Dalton, Mary Frances Berry

I don't see how Dean can claim to be the outsider any more. Or is it being claimed that the DNC is working against him in fear of his nomination will result in the Dems being crushed?

77. wonkers2 - 1/15/2004 5:41:06 PM

Well, Gore is the only establishment Democrat who has endorsed Dean. For example, Michael Moore is hardly establishment. Neither are Moseley Braun or Harkin. And it appears to me from watching the "Tube" that NBC and CNN favor either Clark or Kerry over Dean. Clinton appears to be supporting Clark although he hasn't said so. Also, you omitted Jexter from the Clark supporters.

78. wonkers2 - 1/15/2004 5:47:07 PM

Jexter is a reliable guide to where the big Democrats are coming from. A couple of years ago there was another motie from D.C. who appeared to be wired in to the DNC. What was her name? Sounded Oriental as I recall??? Whatever happened to her? Anybody know?

79. vonKreedon - 1/15/2004 5:48:56 PM

Wonk - Several people have said that Harkin is not establishment, why not?

I would say that the two unions cited are part of the Dem establishment, do you disagree?

Regarding Clinton's support of Clark, well, yeah, but done with typical Slickness. What Clinton seems to have done is all very behind the scenes calling in of favors to get various Clintonistas to work for Clark.

Somehow I just don't see Jex as "establishment" material.

80. vonKreedon - 1/15/2004 5:49:31 PM

Are you thinking of JadeGold?

81. wonkers2 - 1/15/2004 6:00:12 PM

Harkin is too far to the left of center and a bit of a maverick. Don't underestimate Jexter. He's from just across the river from Baton Rouge! He's connected.

Ah, yes, JadeGold. Very bright and well informed lady??

82. vonKreedon - 1/15/2004 6:01:20 PM

Well...a bright selectively informed vicious partisan hack would be how I would describe her.

83. vonKreedon - 1/15/2004 6:02:21 PM

Jade, the anti-Ace.

84. wonkers2 - 1/15/2004 6:06:45 PM

She was partisan but not a hack and I don't recall she was vicious. Whatever she said was predictably down the line DNC. Ace was the one who was vicious and nasty. They were a good match! Jexter is also quite predictably down the line DNC. Perhaps a bit left and ahead of the party line, actually.

85. robertjayb - 1/15/2004 6:09:57 PM

Madonna supports Clark.

86. vonKreedon - 1/15/2004 6:19:39 PM

Yeah, it was kind of funny ... see Paris Hilton has been sending me all this email, like two or five a day, wanting me to check out some video she made, and I've just been deleting them because I am so not into her any more. Anyway, then this email from Madonna shows up and I'm thinking....
turned out she only wanted me for my donation to Clark.

87. wonkers2 - 1/15/2004 6:32:50 PM

I'm sure your donation to Clark had nothing to to with it!

88. robertjayb - 1/15/2004 6:44:25 PM

Enough of this heavy stuff....Has anyone seen the video of Howard Dean flipping pancakes?

How does he do that?

89. vonKreedon - 1/15/2004 6:46:07 PM

I am even more sick of the Dean pancake video than I am of the Paris Hilton video, man have I seen that a lot.

90. wonkers2 - 1/15/2004 7:13:45 PM

Kerry is now leading in at least one of the polls.

91. wonkers2 - 1/15/2004 7:36:18 PM

Martin Sheen and Rob Reiner are campaigning for Howard Dean in Iowa. Sheen because he was the first and strongest to oppose the war in Iraq and Reiner because Dean will bring a big change in course from where Bush is taking the country.

92. wonkers2 - 1/15/2004 7:38:04 PM

Rob Reiner: "The American people like a plain spoken, unscripted person."

Sheen: "I shouldn't have called Bush a moron. But I don't think he's capable of leading this country."

93. wonkers2 - 1/15/2004 7:53:53 PM

Hard to predice the Dem nominee. But IMO Edwards is the most likely VP candidate. And I think he would be a good one. He would add Southern balance to Dean or Kerry, plus a calming influence on Dean. He is smooth, articulate, persuasive and likeable.

94. robertjayb - 1/15/2004 7:58:36 PM

Spouse lies Edwards, too. But like I said, she's a fool for a handsome man.

95. vonKreedon - 1/15/2004 8:21:36 PM

I totally agree on Edwards being the prime potential VP among the Dem contenders. A non-condenter who I think could prime VP is Gov. Richardson.

96. arkymalarky - 1/15/2004 8:24:46 PM

Arky politicians Dale Bumpers and David Pryor are supporting Clark. I think that's really neat.

97. wonkers2 - 1/15/2004 8:31:52 PM

Yeah, Richardson is capable, Hispanic and from the West.

98. jexster - 1/15/2004 10:10:47 PM

But he already delivered Sherman Statement


ATLANTA (Reuters) - In a sign of the difficulty President Bush (news - web sites) faces as he tries to win black support for his reelection, several hundred protesters loudly booed him on Thursday as he laid a wreath at the grave of civil rights leader Martin Luther King.


"Bush go home" and "peace not war" the predominantly black crowd of protesters shouted from behind a barrier of buses, as Bush paid tribute to King on the 75th anniversary of his birth.

99. jexster - 1/15/2004 10:22:38 PM

The predictable workings of the RNC Slime Machine..

This time big breakdown...folks gettin wise to that act.

So imagine that. The same day Drudge has his 'world exclusive' with ridiculously distorted clips of Wes Clark's September 2002 congressional testimony on Iraq, RNC Chairman Ed Gillespie is in Little Rock giving a speech about Clark and he's using the same testimony to riff on.

What a coincidence they were both using google on the same day with the same idea, right? Amazing.

And then, according to KnightRidder, it turns out that Drudge didn't even play the smear straight. To quote the KnightRidder ...

Clark's congressional testimony was further distorted Thursday by cyber-gossip columnist Matt Drudge, who quoted selected portions of Clark's testimony and added sentences that don't appear in the transcript on his Web site Thursday. Drudge didn't respond to an e-mail request for comment.
Oh what a tangled web ...

-- Josh Marshall

And what do I think vK?

Liars and incompetents
Incompentents and liars

TomAto
TomAHto...truth squads will be in the frontlines this time around

100. vonKreedon - 1/16/2004 12:25:23 AM

Jex - Your Message # 98 really should be in another thread.

101. rdbrewer - 1/16/2004 1:04:57 AM

I could tell from your eagerness to have my thread yesterday that you were going to turn into Inspector Javert.

102. concerned - 1/16/2004 3:45:53 AM

The NYT is now talking about 'Bush Democrats'. This crossover is a phenomenon we haven't seen since the Reagan era.

Maybe it's time for Democrat party operatives to turn up the rhetorical heat to keep their constituency from leaving the plantation. After all, how can the Democrat Party handle losing the presidency to someone like GWB a second time after all the rhetorical energy they've expended describing his shortcomings?

103. Magoseph - 1/16/2004 3:59:17 AM

Ann Richards endorsed Dean, concerned. What do you think about that?

104. concerned - 1/16/2004 4:04:23 AM

Hi, Magoseph. Here's what I think of that:



Thanks to Jimmuh Cahtuh, the 'nuculer' engineer for legitimizing that pronunciation.

105. concerned - 1/16/2004 4:13:35 AM

"I'm Al Franken. I'm here to present the funniest ad award. I'm a last-minute substitution, former Treasury Secretary Paul O'Neill was supposed to be the presenter, but unfortunately he was murdered."

Ooh, that's hil-ar-i-ous.

106. concerned - 1/16/2004 4:20:46 AM

Chuck D:


* "But truly, seriously, quite frankly, the people are smart enough to realize that the world is important and we only have one life, that's tired of this bullshit, or better than that, tired of this Bushshit" (big applause)

* "Americanization is like McDonaldization"

* "Son of a Bush and his crew is at it again, because, we do not want 8 years run by a Colon, a Bush and a Dick."

From Margaret Cho:

* "Despite all of this stupid bullshit that the Republican National Committee, or whatever the fuck they call them, that they were saying that they're all angry about how two of these ads were comparing Bush to Hitler? I mean, out of thousands of submissions, they find two. They're like fucking looking for Hitler in a hawstack. You now? I mean, George Bush is not Hitler. He would be if he fucking applied himself." big, extended applause) "I mean he just isn't."

* "I think this last year has just proven how stupid Republicans are." (big applause)

The above quotes from Soros' Move On Award meeting as quoted on Drudgereport.

107. concerned - 1/16/2004 4:22:08 AM

jexster has to be loving this.

108. Magoseph - 1/16/2004 4:24:42 AM

Hey, that's off topics, concerned. Neither O'Neill, not Franken is a candidate.

109. Magoseph - 1/16/2004 5:17:18 AM

You are right, Jay, Rourke's column was not funny but the inconsistencies in the stump speeches were hilarious, if not comforting about each candidate's ability to keep issues straight in their memory.

110. wonkers2 - 1/16/2004 8:39:17 AM

Sports.com nomination odds this morning:

Dean 1-3

Clark 13-5

Gephart 7-1

Kerry 7-1

Edwards 12-1

Lieberman 18-1

Clinton 20-1

Gore 60-1

Sharpton 500-1

Kucinich 500-1

111. jayackroyd - 1/16/2004 9:21:56 AM

There's been a lot of poll reporting in Iowa last few days. The stats education I've had leads me to mostly ignore polls at this stage, because the sampling error tends to be so large, relative to the numbers. That is, Dean up 25-21 over Gephardt with a sampling error of 5 is a tie, pending the actual caucus.

I particularly don't pay attention to polls in Iowa because the effort gap between answering a buncha questions on the phone and attending a caucus is so great.

Am I wrong about this? Do the polls successfully predict results?

My gut would bet Dean on the depth of commitment his followers have. But Gephardt's labor guys know how to get out the vote. And I suspect that Kerry's surge won't be matched by people trundling out to their cars on Monday.

Any idea what the weather is supposed to be like on Monday evening?

112. concerned - 1/16/2004 10:38:21 AM

Kerry Opens 5-Point Lead Over Dean, Gephardt in Iowa Poll

Where's Weasley?

113. judithathome - 1/16/2004 11:06:25 AM

After all, how can the Democrat Party handle losing the presidency to someone like GWB a second time after all the rhetorical energy they've expended describing his shortcomings?

To be technical, they didn't lose the first one and if they lose the second, it will still be America, where anyone can grow up to be President or at least, if they have enough money, can run for the office.

And it is still a country where the President's short- comings are allowed to be the subject of conjecture by not only his oppoents but by the general public and the media. Unless, of course, the current one has passed some stealth legislation making it illegal.

I'm sure you'd rather think a loss to Bush will ring the death knell of the Democrtic party but it won't. I happen to believe a win for Bush will do some damage to the idea of a Republican majority, however. It will take time and unfortunately, the entire country (that portion which isn't wealthy) will suffer for it but it will happen.

114. vonKreedon - 1/16/2004 11:08:58 AM

Con - Clark is not running in Iowa. He decided that, given his late entry, he did not have the time and resources to effectively campaign in Iowa and so focused on NH and the southern/southwestern primaries on Feb. 3rd.

115. jexster - 1/16/2004 11:09:28 AM

Charlie Cook was wrong. This race is murky before Iowa, not after NH.

Here Comes Kerry!

116. vonKreedon - 1/16/2004 11:14:57 AM

Speaking of pie-in-the-sky political death knell fantasies, here's mine:

Clark/Edwards score a solid win over Bush/Cheney. Clark appoints either Powell or Bill Clinton Sec. State. The economy grows gangbusters and we successfully repair our damaged international relations. Dems retake one or both houses of Congress. The Repubs get wilder and wilder in their recriminations, both within the party and conspiracy theories about the Dems/Liberal Media. In '08 the Clark/Rodham-Clinton ticket wins in a walk. Some Repub's start to tear off their own heads. In '12 Hillary becomes president and the Repub Party implodes.

Of course, an equally implausible fantasy can be woven about the self-destruction of the Dem party.

117. concerned - 1/16/2004 11:58:11 AM

Re. 114 -

Thanks for reminding me of that. I recall reading something now about a week ago to that effect, but I had forgotten.

118. jexster - 1/16/2004 11:59:12 AM

This is the very first time in my three decades of active involvement in Democratic politics that I can recall the party rank and file totally abandoning its concerns over ideological purity in favor of electablility.

Even in San Francisco, the Peoples' Republic, this is so. In the mayor's race, which was a Demo ideologue fest par excellence, I met Demos and Greens of all stripe and none from Kucinich to Clark cared about anything but electablility.

Amazing....

119. concerned - 1/16/2004 12:01:00 PM

Considering what we know now, the Democrat Party's best odds for capturing the presidency for the next decade could well be in '08.

120. concerned - 1/16/2004 12:02:42 PM

Re. 118 -

Don't blame Republicans for that. After all, people of voting age are considered adults.

121. vonKreedon - 1/16/2004 12:04:28 PM

Jex - That is amazing indeed, and gives me hope. I was very concerned ... well no Concerned mind you ... early in the campaigns that the Dems were so angry about the 2000 election and the passage of both the PATRIOT ACT and the Iraq war resolution that they would insist on draconian ideological purity and ignore the need to appeal to the swing needed to actually get elected.

122. robertjayb - 1/16/2004 12:16:25 PM

Kerry's Climb and his Keyser Soze guru...

The New Republic Online---There are some obvious reasons for this Kerry comeback. One is the way he essentially gave up on winning New Hampshire and began campaigning constantly in Iowa, in the hope that a surprise finish would slingshot him into New Hampshire with fresh momentum. Another may be a sharpened stump style, and the well-advised dumping of contrived slogans like "The Real Deal."

But there might be another, more hidden story--a secret weapon Kerry unleashed in Iowa several weeks ago. His name is Michael Whouley.

123. jexster - 1/16/2004 12:26:17 PM

The Kerry-nator scenario...

If Kerry does score and Dean doesn't win (caveat: Iowa polls tell little about caucus performance)...

Clark has a female problem and Kerry, though I don't know how he polls, has both war record and I suspect no gender gap problem.

He also has had a ground operation in place longer than the General in NH

Though Dean will be on the run after NH, he is sitting pretty here in California (so far) and certainly has the bucks to do CA media buy...

very interesting

124. jexster - 1/16/2004 12:27:08 PM

Key for Clark - Bury Likud Lieberman

125. jexster - 1/16/2004 12:59:43 PM

Clark Opens Records, Challenges Bush on Secrecy, Coverups

126. jexster - 1/16/2004 1:02:13 PM

clARKY will love this...latest in a series of remarkable policy initiatives...



In South Carolina on Thursday, Wes Clark announced a plan to tackle the persistent problem of school inequity. Clark argued that for too many children in America, the education they get depends on where they live and how much money their parents have.

127. vonKreedon - 1/16/2004 1:04:56 PM

Jex - I really appreciate such posts as Message # 118 and Message # 123, because in them you express your own opinion and analysis without resorting to gratuitous invective. Your posts such as Message # 125 are useful sources of information, and again wonderfully free of gratuitous invective, but I am more interested in why you think that the information is important than simply the link to the information.

Finally, I appreciate that you have been playing, by and large, nicely in this thread. Thanks.

128. jexster - 1/16/2004 1:09:28 PM

De nada. Ask me my views I tell em....my major problem sometimes

129. jexster - 1/16/2004 3:52:41 PM

The General is moving so fast on so many fronts I can scarcely keep track of it all...

Kinda reminds me of something, I cannot quite put my finger on it..

130. OhioSTOPAS - 1/16/2004 4:28:59 PM

Here is something refreshing: the press refuting RNC crap instead of just repeating it.

"Ed Gillespie, the chairman of the Republican National Committee, charged Thursday that retired Army Gen. Wesley Clark endorsed President Bush's policy toward Iraq two weeks before Congress voted to authorize Bush to go to war.

"If true, that would contradict the core message of Clark's presidential campaign. The complete transcript of Clark's Sept. 26, 2002, testimony, however, reveals that Clark didn't endorse Bush's policy during the congressional hearing, and that the Republican charge is based on selected excerpts of his remarks.

"Gillespie . . . chairman didn't mention that Clark also said America should work through the United Nations to seek a diplomatic solution and go to war only as a last resort. . . ."

These reporters (Dana Hull and Drew Brown of Knight-Ridder) can expect never to be called on at any Bush administration press conference!

The accepted procedure, as has been amply demonstrated over the last few years, is (as I read on a blog recently) for the reporter to quote the Republican statement that white is black and up is down, and note only that "some people say" white is white and up is up.

131. PelleNilsson - 1/16/2004 4:37:19 PM

jexster

Blitzkrieg?

132. robertjayb - 1/16/2004 4:40:36 PM

Good catch, Ohio.

133. robertjayb - 1/16/2004 5:01:46 PM

Krugman, who gets it, says Clark and Dean do also....

Earlier this week, Wesley Clark had some strong words about the state of the nation. "I think we're at risk with our democracy," he said. "I think we're dealing with the most closed, imperialistic, nastiest administration in living memory. They even put Richard Nixon to shame."

In other words, the general gets it: he understands that America is facing what Kevin Phillips, in his remarkable new book, "American Dynasty," calls a "Machiavellian moment." Among other things, this tells us that General Clark and Howard Dean, whatever they may say in the heat of the nomination fight, are on the same side of the great Democratic divide.

134. concerned - 1/16/2004 5:12:54 PM

rjb-

Take that rhetoric seriously? Clark doesn't.

135. vonKreedon - 1/16/2004 5:21:40 PM

Con - Why do you say that Clark doesn't take the things that he says seriously?

136. concerned - 1/16/2004 5:22:30 PM

Who could, given rjb's excerpt?

137. concerned - 1/16/2004 5:26:01 PM

vK -

Make sure you look over this little tidbit:

Among other things, this tells us that General Clark and Howard Dean, whatever they may say in the heat of the nomination fight....

138. concerned - 1/16/2004 5:30:31 PM

Maybe Krugman takes it seriously, but I look at him as a special 'case'.

139. vonKreedon - 1/16/2004 5:53:32 PM

Con - The quip you exerpt, whatever they may say in the heat of the nomination fight.... is talking to whatever they may say about each other.

140. concerned - 1/16/2004 6:02:16 PM

If it makes you feel better to believe that Democrats will lie about each other but tell only the truth about Republicans, be my guest.

141. vonKreedon - 1/16/2004 6:07:40 PM

Dude, take off the overly partisaned spectacles and re-read the article. What is being said is that no matter how much Dean and Clark may disparage each other's Democratic quals, they are on the same page regarding the nature of the Bush administration. That's all it is saying. It is unremarkable that opponents in a race will say bad things about each other, all that is being pointed out is that at the end of the day both Dean and Clark believe the Bush administration to be reckless and untrustworthy.

142. arkymalarky - 1/16/2004 8:14:52 PM

Jex,

Clark just won me with that. Our governor's attacking inequity here by pushing to get everything under his complete control. And I think he's going to succeed.

Education should be such a major part of any political platform, and if someone can offer something besides lip-service and slogans I'm all for it.

143. jexster - 1/16/2004 8:16:55 PM

I know I just said its the electablity stoopid but

THIS IS FUN!
PBS Newshour Making Us Smarter Than the Average Fox Idiot...

Here is a quiz sponsored by PBS's New Hour and WBUR.org: "Do you really know where the candidates stand? Learn about the candidates through their platforms, not their personalities. Read the answers from the nine
Democrats running for president on 14 major issues. Choose the one you agree with most. Create your own report card that reveals the candidates you chose for each issue."


The PBS Vote By Issues Quiz

144. jexster - 1/16/2004 9:30:23 PM

Ruy Teixeira and John Judis authors of the Emerging Democratic Majority, are about to come with EDM: Afterword...

Excerpt follows...For the record, I agree with their analysis and would add that it makes weight for my argument "The Attack forms on the Right Flank"

145. jexster - 1/16/2004 9:30:57 PM

Afterword: “The Enemy is Coming”
John B. Judis and Ruy Teixeira

If the November 2002 elections had been held on September 10, 2001, the Democrats would have made impressive gains, increasing their one-seat edge in the Senate and probably winning back the House of Representatives. At the time, George W. Bush was seen as a weak and ineffective leader, who was most comfortable reading The Very Hungry Caterpillar to schoolchildren. His approval rating was at 51 percent, dangerously low for a president in his first nine months. In addition, the Clinton boom had given way to a pronounced economic slowdown. Combine these factors with popular support for Democratic positions on social security, health care costs, the environment, and the economy, and you had a recipe for a Republican disaster. But nothing of the kind occurred. In the wake of the September 11 terrorist attacks, Bush and the Republicans boosted their popularity and actually gained seats in both houses, narrowly winning back the Senate.

The GOP successes in November 2002 gave rise to new theories about a long-term Republican realignment. In the conservative Weekly Standard, Fred Barnes described an emerging 9/11 majority. “We are no longer an equally divided, 50-50 nation,” Barnes wrote. “America is now at least 51-49 Republican and right of center, more likely 52-48, maybe even 53-47.

146. jexster - 1/16/2004 9:32:06 PM

The terrorist attacks on September 11, 2001, created a new political era, and the midterm election on November 5 confirmed it.” Barnes was certainly right about the Republican tilt of the election, but not about the “new political era.” The November 2002 elections represented the temporary revival of the older conservative realignment of the 1980s. September 11 brought to the forefront national security issues on which Republicans have enjoyed an advantage since the election of 1980; and Bush’s sure-handed performance in the months that followed ensured that this advantage would accrue to him and the Republicans in November 2002. But this advantage will persist only as long as Americans feel under attack and also feel that the Republicans are best able to protect them from attack. The 2002 election did not begin a new era, but unexpectedly prolonged an older one.



And it supports my oft expressed analysis that Bush used the War in Iraq as a cynical manipulation of public opinion to gain advantage in the mid-term elections.

147. jexster - 1/16/2004 9:43:33 PM

Bush had motive.
He had opportunity.

Now he's got big trouble...

General Wesley Clark, American Son, American Hero
Karl Rove's Worst Nightmare

148. jexster - 1/18/2004 6:08:20 AM

vK...

High price vK quality spread for the bar...

Campaign Desk: Critique and analysis of 2004 campaign coverage from Columbia Journalism Review

149. jexster - 1/18/2004 6:13:39 AM

Timely wrap up of the Big RNC/Drudge Slime of the Week...
or how media repetition can make sothing out of something...

Echo Chamber
The Good, the Bad and the Ugly Converge on One Story
The echo chamber is vibrating with full force after yesterday's distortion of Gen. Wes Clark's 2002 testimony to the House Armed Services Committee, courtesy of the Republican National Committee, as passed along as gospel by Matt Drudge. At one point in Drudge's piece, as CampaignDesk has already pointed out, he manufactured a single quotation with an ellipse that jumps 11,500 words.

That's bad. But, worse, the false reporting has already leaped into the mainstream. Yesterday, Democratic Presidential hopeful Joe Lieberman repeated Drudge's error in a press release he issued highlighting Clark's distorted testimony.

A number of reporters joined the chorus, passing along Drudge's misrepresentations without reading the full transcript. The Associated Press and Reuters both repeated the excerpts of Clark's testimony without noting the true context, and the Washington Times copied the Drudge charge practically verbatim, taking note of Clark's denial but quoting an anonymous "Democratic strategist" suggesting Clark "got an extra pass [from the media] because he was a general."

Thankfully, some reporters did get out their shovels and Campaign Desk applauds their efforts. Dana Hull and Drew Brown of Knight Ridder released a story late last night with a headline challenging the RNC release. Hull and Brown report, "The complete transcript of Clark's Sept. 26, 2002, testimony, however, reveals that Clark didn't endorse Bush's policy during the congressional hearing, and that the Republican charge is based on selected excerpts of his remarks."

By morning most of the major newspapers including the Washington Post, the New York Times, and the Boston Globe ran pieces reflecting the whole story.

150. jexster - 1/18/2004 10:58:22 AM

George McGovern
Michael "Green Party" Moore
and Madonna

have one thing in common but I wanna know what Clark is slipping in their drinks!

Still, his great weakness they don't fill

He needs one hot shot field organizer more than 1000 eyebrow raising endorsements

151. jexster - 1/18/2004 11:33:42 AM

There's been a lot of poll reporting in Iowa last few days. The stats education I've had leads me to mostly ignore polls at this stage, because the sampling error tends to be so large, relative to the numbers. That is, Dean up 25-21 over Gephardt with a sampling error of 5 is a tie, pending the actual caucus.

I particularly don't pay attention to polls in Iowa because the effort gap between answering a buncha questions on the phone and attending a caucus is so great.

Am I wrong about this? Do the polls successfully predict results?

No polls don't predict results. A poll will only tell you the probability that the statistic it reports would fall within a range either side of the actual population proportion that would be found in an actual census taken over the same time period. The sample must be randomly drawn from the popuplation of voters who will actually vote on election day right? Unless you manipulate s simple random sample to reflcect likely voters reliably the poll will not be as accurate. The explosion of cell phones has probably made telephone surveys less reliable.


You're right about Iowa. There's probably no poll that queries only likely caucus voters. This favors candidates with strong field organization(Dean Gephardt) and/or "buzz"(Kerry/Edwards)

152. Magoseph - 1/18/2004 11:41:29 AM

Message # 149

Jex, all this means to me is that when they focus Drudge on a candidate with that intensity and pull in every chip they have out to make the legitimate print, you can bet your bottom dollar they're scared to death of him. I have watched all these people and this man Clark is the fastest and cleverest I have ever seen. I even believe he tops Clinton if that is possible. The way he handled Russert recently back was something to behold.

153. jexster - 1/18/2004 11:53:00 AM

Jay look at the spread at any given time shown on this graph of 14 polla of Bush approval since 2001



And this tabulation of the average difference in poll results on the approval question since 2001 for several polls from the Ipsos Reid Poll (benchmark=0)


Approval is more ambiguous than preference, especially the closer to election, and the spread is smaller on the latter but you get the idea

154. jexster - 1/18/2004 12:06:35 PM

Clark is brilliant no doubt about it...but his late start brought serious practical disadvantages...insufficient time to build a nationwide field organization and weak position with state/local party activists, heavy hitting contributors, union, and officeholder connections.

HE has done well setting strategy, policy, broad brush stuff but its the nitty grity things that make stil him a long shot unless the field narrows to 2 or 3 real soon so he scavenge resources and voter focus advantage, he will have more troubles than solutions.

155. Magoseph - 1/18/2004 12:26:11 PM

Jex, you may be right. What I want is a combination soldier/Rhodes scholar mind. When I say soldier, I mean someone who has led men in combat and faced enemy fire in addition to top-brass planning. We're faced with a fight to the finish with the barbarians and won't survive led by a crew of draft-dodgers/deserters and seat-of-the pants neocon warriors presently aboard. I can live with either Kerry or Clark with my vice-president as Edwards.

156. jexster - 1/18/2004 2:46:26 PM

Anybody but Lieberman...

157. PelleNilsson - 1/18/2004 2:59:19 PM

jex hast been up and posting for 24 hours now.

158. wonkers2 - 1/18/2004 3:29:10 PM

Try reading his posts instead of bitching about them and you might learn something.

159. jexster - 1/18/2004 3:59:59 PM

So Much for Bush's Saddam Bounce..back to 50%..50% all time NyT Low

11/10-12/03 CBS 50 42 8
12/10-13/03 52 40 8
12/14-15/03 58 33 9
1/12-15/04 50 45

160. PelleNilsson - 1/18/2004 4:19:39 PM

Bitching? I'm admiring his dedication.

161. jexster - 1/18/2004 4:23:23 PM

More like on and off over 8 hours...but who is counting?

You?

162. OhioSTOPAS - 1/19/2004 11:19:55 AM

I'm very glad to see the Kerry campaign rise from the dead. In my opinion, he's the candidate best qualified to be President and the candidate who will run best against Bush.

163. vonKreedon - 1/19/2004 11:24:50 AM

Let's make guesses about under what circumstances various candidates will drop out of the race.

• Gephardt - I think that he has to win Iowa. If Gephardt fails to win in Iowa I think he drops even before NH.
  
• Kerry - Kerry stays at least through NH. If Kerry wins Iowa then I expect he will stay in at least through the Feb. 3rd primaries. If Kerry comes in third or fourth in Iowa and doesn't win NH I expect him to drop before Feb. 3rd.
  
• Edwards - No matter what Edwards is in it through the Feb. 3rd primaries. If he hasn't won anything at that point he drops out.
  
• Clark - Clark is in through the Feb. 10th primaries. If he is not in the number one or two spot at that point he might drop.
  
• Dean - I figure that Dean is in the same position as Clark.
  
• Lieberman - I can't figure out why he is still running at all. I'd like to say that he would drop out after getting trounced in Iowa, or at least after getting trounced in NH, but my take is that Joe is stubborn beyond reason and will have to dragged screaming from the stage.
  
• Kucinich - Dennis will drop out when the money is all gone and he stops getting invited to the debates.
  
• Sharpton - Al will drop out when he gets some sort of consession from the National Convention. He'd like to get to speak, and god help us he might.
  

164. judithathome - 1/19/2004 11:39:38 AM

Lieberman and Gephardt can't understand that they are not "flashy" enough to win a presidential election. You can laugh all you want but I doubt either would be elected no matter what. And as a joke, I doubt they'd even win if they ran unopposed.

165. vonKreedon - 1/19/2004 1:49:46 PM

Ohio - Why do you like Kerry over the other candidates, particularly regarding electability?

166. jexster - 1/19/2004 2:17:51 PM

Is Kerry the 2004 Komeback Kid???

I've heard all sorts of explanations - he's smart; looks presidential; man of evident good character; experienced etc but this may be have a little to do with it

Meet
Mike Whouley - Field Director from Hell

Ohio -

The General has ordered me to give you this PASS which allows you access to all areas under the control of C Corps.


Please keep this with you at all times or you may be shot - dead.

167. OhioSTOPAS - 1/19/2004 3:10:01 PM

VonK - I agree with Kerry on the issues, and his intelligence and knowledge acquired as a Senator make him more than qualified.

I think Kerry's military experience will be very beneficial in running against a "wartime President" who is sure to be wrapped in the Flag during the campaign. If AWOL Bush questions Kerry's patriotism, it'll get shoved down his throat.

General Clark of course also has this advantage. But if Howard Dean is the nominee, I fear that all we'll hear about right up to election day are Dean's skiing trips after having been found 4-F for Vietnam service.

(Although Kerry is my preference, every Democratic nominee will be a better President than Bush and I'll unreservedly support the Democratic nominee.)

168. OhioSTOPAS - 1/19/2004 3:50:34 PM

In Message # 130 I pointed out a refreshing bit of political journalism: a Knight-Ridder newspaper article exposing a current conservative/Republican lie (saying Wesley Clark supported a war against Iraq in 2002) as such.

Unfortunately, that appears to have been an anomaly. At CNN, it's business as usual.

169. robertjayb - 1/19/2004 5:12:30 PM

Edwards, Kucinich supporters may team up...

Supporters for Democratic presidential candidates Rep. Dennis Kucinich and Sen. John Edwards may team up at caucuses tonight, although neither candidate is either dropping out of the race or endorsing the other, officials from both campaign officials said Monday.

The candidates are encouraging voters to join forces in precincts where either one or both campaigns are not viable, and do not have enough support to win a delegate. A candidate is deemed viable if he has support from 15 percent of the caucus participants.

In those situations, the group with the smaller number of supporters will move to the other campaign, according to a press release from the Dennis Kucinich for President campaign.

170. vonKreedon - 1/19/2004 5:23:38 PM

I can find a that confirms this, but nothing on the Edwards site. This could push Edwards over the top to a win in Iowa. I wonder whose idea this was and why there doesn't seem to be anything about it on the Edwards site?

171. vonKreedon - 1/19/2004 5:24:42 PM

Shit, sorry about the bad HTML code.

Here, press release

172. robertjayb - 1/19/2004 5:47:20 PM

These Iowa caucuses are very much like the caucuses Texas Democrats use to select convention delegates from precinct level on up to state.

Iowa democrats may be more amenable to being organized---but here schemes to influence the meeting outcome are pretty shaky propositions. Everyone is a free agent. If your candidate fails to "make," that is cross a minimum level of representation---here it is usually 15-percent---there is a tendency to want to go with the likely winner.

Of course the scheme here is to select delegate to the next level so the largest group will have the most delegate spots to assign.

173. robertjayb - 1/19/2004 6:03:59 PM

Former McCain aide may join Clark...

DES MOINES, Iowa (AP) -- Wesley Clark, seeking a bipartisan flavor for his presidential campaign, is in negotiations with a former adviser to Republican Sen. John McCain to be his senior strategist.

The Clark campaign and John Weaver, who helped run McCain's insurgent 2000 primary campaign against President Bush in 2000, said Monday it is not a done deal.

``John Weaver has not been hired by the Clark campaign although he has been in discussion with the campaign about the possibility of coming on to give us some strategic advice,'' said Matt Bennett, spokesman for the Clark campaign.
................................

Weaver was one of a handful of aides who helped McCain upset Bush in the 2000 New Hampshire primary on the strength of broad support among independent voters, who are allowed to cast ballots in Republican and Democratic primaries.
.................................

Are we having fun yet?

174. jexster - 1/19/2004 7:32:41 PM

Estimates of Iowa Caucus Turnout - 100,000
Shiites in Streets of Baghdad - 100,000

Can't America do better with its democracy than the faux democracy in Iraq?

175. jexster - 1/19/2004 7:34:42 PM

Robert...Weaver's nice, McGovern nice, Moore nice too

NEEDS FIELD DIRECTOR

176. TheWizardOfWhimsy - 1/19/2004 7:41:27 PM

Okay, here's my prediction: Kerry and Edwards— Bush will be Repug Roadkill come November 3rd.

177. jexster - 1/19/2004 7:43:40 PM

vK...I think you are wrong about Clark and Dean but the complexity I don't that can be entirely captured in bullets

The situation will be totally murky through NH at which point we agree, Lieberman probably out if he finishes <3 and Gephardt if he doesn't win Iowa, probably out after NH if not earlier...that affects SC where he's fairly strong

What I am trying to get at is that you have to run a couple or three what if's here and look at staying power first

Dean will stay through March 3rd because he has the money and the support in California...he will not piss that away

Clark....is #2 in staying power ..nationwide support and money or ability get it

Kerry has money but its HIS ...he has to finish no worse than 3 in NH but he will be hard to discourage if he goes past NH because from then on he will probably have mixed results upon which he can justify fighting on

Now

Edwards...lookin good esp if Gephardt drops out in SC (black vote) as does does

Now what if you add back Lieberman or Gephardt or drop Edwards if he loses SC then what happens?

Or what happens if any of what now looks like the second tier, Edwards. Mr. Likud, and Gephardt make middling finishes...what then?

Too murky for my mind to be able to predict anything other than at least 3 possibly 4 will make it to the Golden State

178. jexster - 1/19/2004 7:46:05 PM

Speaking of strange bedfellow

McGovern/Moore - Gen. Clark
Ayatollah Sistani - Bush

How about

Kucinich - Edwards

His votes to Edwards when he can't make 15% threshold 2 nite

179. jexster - 1/19/2004 7:47:56 PM

How COULD I forget

Kofi Annan - George Bush

180. jexster - 1/19/2004 8:57:03 PM

Interesting on CNN..video inside one caucus's second round. An Edwards precinct captain was counting off his supporters...lots of Kucinich buttons

37% Kerry
33% Edwards
18% Dean

1/3 most rural in

181. robertjayb - 1/19/2004 8:59:10 PM

first cut from Des Moines Register:

645 of 1993 precincts====

Kerry, 37%

Edwards, 33

Dean, 18

Gephardt, 11

182. jexster - 1/19/2004 9:04:44 PM

Gephardt - RIP

183. jexster - 1/19/2004 9:11:23 PM

Lieberman - Dead Man Walkin and other subjects
Report of interview with ARG NH Tracking Poll Guy

184. robertjayb - 1/19/2004 9:14:44 PM

1020 of 1993 precinct:

No change in percentages..


Gephardt is toast....

185. vonKreedon - 1/19/2004 10:03:53 PM

Right, so Gephardt drops out now. Big victories for both Kerry and Edwards. This is bad for Clark in NH and SC as this will really boost Kerry and Edwards in their neighbor states.

Big winners: Kerry and Edwards
Big losers: Gephardt, Clark, Dean, McAuliffe

186. vonKreedon - 1/19/2004 10:05:10 PM

Gephardt's already on his way out, Gephardt Scraps Plans to Head to N.H.

187. jayackroyd - 1/19/2004 10:24:57 PM

Edwards.

Wow. He's the new front runner, imo.

188. robertjayb - 1/19/2004 10:57:19 PM

He ran a good race but he ran too slow...

By DAVID ESPO
AP Special Correspondent
Published January 19, 2004, 9:22 PM CST




DES MOINES, Iowa -- Rep. Dick Gephardt intends to drop out of the Democratic presidential race after a disappointing fourth-place finish in the Iowa caucuses, a Democratic official said Monday night.

189. vonKreedon - 1/19/2004 11:01:45 PM

Jay - I included Terry McAuliffe among the big losers this evening because I think that there is no longer a front running; McAuliffe's dream of the nomination being decided by March is in ruins.

190. judithathome - 1/20/2004 9:06:28 AM

So, was Edwards' per centage that high because of Kucinich? What might it have been without Kucinich?

191. Magoseph - 1/20/2004 9:13:58 AM

I listened to all the commentators last night and came to the conclusion that the Democratic ticket is pretty well set. It will be Kerry and Edwards or Clark and Edwards. Dean taped into the anger and energized the party. He has served his purpose and becomes history. The party wants a winner and will only tap into the Independents with a Clinton type candidate.

192. vonKreedon - 1/20/2004 10:10:37 AM

J@H - That's a good question. Given that Edwards received 32% of the caucus votes to Dean's 18%, I doubt that Kucinich cross-over votes made much of a difference in him finishing second.

Mag - I think you are right that it will be either Kerry or Clark at the top of the ticket and likely Edwards as VP.

193. robertjayb - 1/20/2004 10:15:41 AM

Congratulations to Wiz for calling the election....

194. judithathome - 1/20/2004 10:27:18 AM

If we thought Dean was angry before, watch out! I think this will really tick him off and he will be more determined than ever.

195. Magoseph - 1/20/2004 10:45:22 AM

Won, thanks, I bet everybody came to that conclusion including you.

I believe this election will be decided the last six to eight weeks of the campaign depending on which way the pendulum swings during that period. There will be extreme pressure on both sides not to make a mistake. Caution will be the watchword of the day as we approach the finale. What do you think in this respect?

196. Magoseph - 1/20/2004 10:46:44 AM

Angry will not work, Juds.

197. TheWizardOfWhimsy - 1/20/2004 10:54:13 AM

Thanks for noticing, rj.

Dean will lose for two reasons, imo. 1. His stance on Bush's Iraq War has lost its power because it's been trumped by the electability factor. 2. Dean is also an utter ditz when it comes to socializing and charm. He hasn't a clue when it comes to regulating his responses. He has only one behavior down — feisty. He's going to become more shrill now that he's been jolted and wounded.

If Kerry wins in N.H. and Edwards in Carolina, the Dem ticket will be Kerry/Edwards. Bush will be in trouble because both these guys are way more personable than Smirk&Sneer.

Moreover, Kerry is a real hero and Edwards is a real southerner—as opposed to Bush's obvious veneers.

198. vonKreedon - 1/20/2004 11:12:02 AM

Regarding Dean "feistiness", I've heard on CNN/MSNBC several references to Dean's concession speech has being "suprising" and "angry". I've only seen a clip of him on stage taking his coat off and handing it to Harkin as if he was about to get into a bar fight. Is this what is being talked about, or is there more?

199. jexster - 1/20/2004 11:38:56 AM

Two weeks ago the pundits said Kerry was dead.

Two weeks ago the pundits said John Edwards had better measure drapes for his new law office.

Two weeks ago the pundts said Bush wsa unstoppable.

So much for the pundits.

President Bush delivers his State of the Union address tonight to an American public that has become broadly dissatisfied with his domestic agenda, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll

200. concerned - 1/20/2004 11:40:59 AM

Oh ye of little faith. What happened to all the Dean boosterism I was seeing around here? IAC, it'll be interesting to see if Weasley can pull rank on Kerry in New Hampshire. Then, there's that one term NC Senator and tort lawyer.

"Edwards always helped the little guy as long as he got a million dollars out of it."

201. vonKreedon - 1/20/2004 11:46:14 AM

Con - "...all the Dean boosterism..."? It seemed to me that the liberals at the Mote have mostly been supporting Clark or Kerry. Perhaps you are mistaking this forum for another, conservative, forum where Dean's loss really hurts.

202. vonKreedon - 1/20/2004 11:47:03 AM

Also Con, you quote "Edwards always helped the little guy as long as he got a million dollars out of it." without attribution, are you quoting yourself?

203. judithathome - 1/20/2004 11:47:53 AM

Concerned, there are a lot of little guys out there who have been helped by lawyers such as Edwards.

And welcome to your worst nightare: an erudite and articulate rich ex-soldier who fouhgt in a war your guy avoided.

204. robertjayb - 1/20/2004 11:48:07 AM

I don't get it, vonKreedon, unless many in the media have bought into the angry Dean idea and won't let it go. The post-caucus TV I saw was full of references to angry Dean. I am reminded of the bogus serial-exaggerator label that was hung on Al Gore.

Charlie Rose had on a twerp from the National Democratic Leadership Conference who couldn't let up on Dean and the unsuitability of his supposed anger. Of course, Dean hasn't tossed many roses at establishment democrats.

I'm not and haven't been a Dean guy but come what may I think the party owes him for getting some juices flowing.

205. jexster - 1/20/2004 11:50:55 AM

One interesting CNN finding in Iowa Robt, no matter who a person voted for, he liked all opponents except for Likud Lieberman.

206. concerned - 1/20/2004 11:51:24 AM

Re. 202 -

It's an anonymous quote, therefore from a Democrat.

207. jexster - 1/20/2004 11:52:33 AM

More on the Vanishing Bush Bounce - Donkey Rising


A couple of days ago, DR flagged the fact that, according to the CBS News/New York Times poll, Bush's approval bounce from the capture of Saddam Hussein had completely disappeared. Yesterday, he complained bitterly about the New York Times graphic that showed Bush's approval rating going up at very time it appeared to be losing altitude rapidly .

Now the most recent Gallup poll has been released, which has Bush's approval rating down to 53 percent, a 6 point drop from their last poll and 2 points below where he was in this poll before Saddam was captured. With this cofirmation of Bush's disappearing bounce, it's a good time to delve more deeply into the detailed CBS News/New York Times results and highlight the many ways his political vulnerabilities have re-emerged as this bounce has dissipated.

....

All this indicates that the brief bounce in support Bush got from Saddam's capture did not have a lasting effect on the broad vein of skepticism that the public has about Bush, his policies and their effect on the country. That skepticism remains and is likely to dog him througout this critical election year.

208. robertjayb - 1/20/2004 11:53:46 AM

Which demonstrates Holy Joe's wisdom in staying away from Iowa.

209. judithathome - 1/20/2004 11:53:53 AM

There is, of course, totally unbiased coverage of Dean's reaction on the Drudge Report right now...take your cue from the headline: Dean Goes Nuts

210. jexster - 1/20/2004 11:56:03 AM

Sorry, I should never link before first coffee

211. concerned - 1/20/2004 12:05:58 PM

Well, with Gephardt out, I'd say Lieberman is the most statesmanlike of the remaining Democrat candidates, but he's toast because a lot of Democrats won't vote for a Jewish president.

212. jexster - 1/20/2004 12:06:43 PM

He's toast because he's weak.

213. jexster - 1/20/2004 12:07:48 PM

Two weeks ago Ace was chiriping about 'win-win and Pat Robertson was receiving divine transmissions.

Now Ace is in a spiderhole

214. jexster - 1/20/2004 12:08:18 PM

statesman=peddler of Bush lies

215. vonKreedon - 1/20/2004 12:08:40 PM

Con - Please explain why it is that Dems won't nominate Lieberman because he's Jewish, as opposed to because his policy positions aren't supported by most dems?

216. concerned - 1/20/2004 12:14:41 PM

Re. 215 -

Even though it's not warranted, many LWers associate his religion with Israel which is a nation that a number of Lefties do not favor. Then, there's the well known tension between Jews and certain other Democrat constituencies.

217. jexster - 1/20/2004 12:14:53 PM

A special thanks to George Bush for giving us such fine slogans!

218. jexster - 1/20/2004 12:15:38 PM

Without 9-1-1, this guy would be Gerald Ford II

219. judithathome - 1/20/2004 12:17:26 PM

Then, there's the well known tension between Jews and certain other Democrat constituencies.

Being coy does nothing for your biases, Concerned...why not say what you mean?

220. concerned - 1/20/2004 12:17:50 PM

In 216, I should have posted: "Even though it's not warranted, many LWers have trouble getting past his religious association with Israel which is a nation that a number of Lefties do not favor."

221. concerned - 1/20/2004 12:18:26 PM

Re. 219 -

JAH -

Now you think I'm a Democrat?

222. TheWizardOfWhimsy - 1/20/2004 12:19:52 PM

vk - I base my appraisal of Dean's shortcomings mostly from footage I've seen on Cspan or The News Hour and it seems obvious to me that he isn't socially astute—that is to say he doesn't get it when it comes to spontaneous interaction with people—he doesn't know how he appears to others and now that it's becoming more important (the personality factor), he is overshooting the runway by miles.

Just as a funny aside, he was interviewed by a female interviewer/comedian on The Daily Show last night who was blatantly laughing to all his sincere attempts to address her first serious question. He just didn't get the fact that she was ridiculing him—or he realized he was on camera and just had to cope. However, at the end, she asked, "Well can I at least have a hug?" Dean complied and read her request as if she was looking for sympathy. It was a ludicrous which was exactly what the woman wanted. He just wants it too bad now and I think he's going to sink faster than he rose.

223. TheWizardOfWhimsy - 1/20/2004 12:22:01 PM

ludicrous moment

224. concerned - 1/20/2004 12:24:53 PM

Okay, here's my prediction: Kerry and Edwards— Bush will be Repug Roadkill come November 3rd.


Haunting words.

225. Magoseph - 1/20/2004 12:31:15 PM

Two weeks ago Ace was chiriping about 'win-win and Pat Robertson was receiving divine transmissions.

How do you know that?

226. judithathome - 1/20/2004 12:44:00 PM

that is to say he doesn't get it when it comes to spontaneous interaction with people

As when he told that old, old man who was heckling him about being so hard on Bush to shut up and sit down...bad form even if the old coot deserved it. Someone like Kerry or Edwards would have finessed the situation much more gracefully.

227. TheWizardOfWhimsy - 1/20/2004 1:07:03 PM

224. concerned - 1/20/2004 12:24:53 PM
Okay, here's my prediction: Kerry and Edwards— Bush will be Repug Roadkill come November 3rd.
Haunting words.

Not for me connie, but maybe for you.

Judith, thanks—I'd forgotten about that episode.

228. jayackroyd - 1/20/2004 1:43:40 PM

I think you folks are all underestimating Edwards. He has the right message on domestic issues. He showed enormous discipline in not going negative, and now his NH results don't matter.

Then we go south.

229. TheWizardOfWhimsy - 1/20/2004 1:49:12 PM

Maybe, jay, but his inexperience with regard to war and foreign affairs weakens his appeal.

230. jayackroyd - 1/20/2004 1:50:23 PM

You mean like Bush? Or Clinton? Or Reagan? Or Carter?

231. TheWizardOfWhimsy - 1/20/2004 1:56:00 PM

You mean like Bush? Or Clinton? Or Reagan? Or Carter?

Yes, because they were all pre 9/11. Do you really think Dubya would have been elected if 9/11 was on Clinton's watch.

Mean while . . .

Republicans Warn Bush on Spending, Deficits


Pelosi and Daschle Deliver Pre-Buttal to State of the Union Address

232. TheWizardOfWhimsy - 1/20/2004 1:57:08 PM

? meanwhile

233. jexster - 1/20/2004 2:06:35 PM

A Victory for Electablity?

The only thing that matters to Democrats.....and with Bush demonstrably vulnerable and consistently trailing the GEneric Democrat, just wait until he has to run against flesh and blood.

234. vonKreedon - 1/20/2004 2:26:20 PM

I think that the Wiz is right about Edwards; his lack of experience in foreign policy/security issues should keep him from being the Dem nominee. Even if Dean was as well behaved as Edwards this should have kept him from being viable as well.

The Dem nominee must be someone who's foreign policy and military affairs experience puts Bush's to shame. This leaves only Kerry and Clark as viable nominees.

235. jexster - 1/20/2004 3:27:57 PM

vK's got a rippin bad case of it...

Electability Fever - CATCH IT

236. jexster - 1/20/2004 3:29:46 PM

and so apparently do I..the first thing to go...hand eye coordination

A Victory for Electability

237. robertjayb - 1/20/2004 3:51:53 PM

Let us appreciate a good man, Dick Gephardt, moving on. A straight arrow and dull as dishwater. He never got above his raisin' and he danced, too long, it seems, with who brung him.

238. concerned - 1/20/2004 4:08:50 PM

Re. 237 -

True. He's more suited for the presidency than most of the other Democrat candidates.

239. judithathome - 1/20/2004 4:28:26 PM

Hardly.

240. TheWizardOfWhimsy - 1/20/2004 4:35:00 PM

Faulty Logic on Dean's decline

241. wonkers2 - 1/20/2004 5:10:55 PM

Edwards could be a valuable running mate for the eventual nominee.

242. concerned - 1/20/2004 5:44:05 PM

Rank pulling REMF: Well, I don't think that's at all -- Senator (Dole), with all due respect, he's a lieutenant and I'm a general. You got to get your facts on this. He was a lieutenant in Vietnam. I've done all of the big leadership.

Showdown in NH coming up.

243. jexster - 1/20/2004 6:21:21 PM

Gephardt Quits Presidential Race After Iowa Defeat

Likud Lieberman to the guillotine please

244. Al D - 1/20/2004 6:29:13 PM

WoW
Bush will be Repug Roadkill come November 3rd.

I don't imagine you gamble, since you seem quite a prude about drinking, but if you have any spare change to back up the above assertion, I'm willing to take a risk. The amount can be anywhere between $500-$5,000. I would be willing to let jay hold the bet, since he has been willing to identify himself, and I think he is a very honorable person.

245. Al D - 1/20/2004 6:31:10 PM

The reason Lieberman could not be elected President as a Democrat is because he would not get a high % of the Black vote, and Dems. can not win in many states without 90% of the Black vote.

246. jexster - 1/20/2004 6:45:00 PM

NH will take care of Lieberman.

What's the black population of NH? Anyone?

247. TheWizardOfWhimsy - 1/20/2004 6:47:41 PM

244. Al D - 1/20/2004 6:29:13 PM
WoW
Bush will be Repug Roadkill come November 3rd.
I don't imagine you gamble, since you seem quite a prude about drinking, but if you have any spare change to back up the above assertion, I'm willing to take a risk. The amount can be anywhere between $500-$5,000. I would be willing to let jay hold the bet, since he has been willing to identify himself, and I think he is a very honorable person.

Well Al, first yer talkin' to the son of a bookmaker and a compulsive gambler — I don't gamble. Secondly, if you think I'm going to put money down on the whimsical decisions of complacent and lazy Americans who spend little time doing their civic homework , influenced by a corporate media circus geared for dunderheads and the largest political war chest (read bribe money) known to history, then you're dumber than you are macho.

By the way, I just gave MoveOn.org a hundred dollars for a new SOTU commercial.

248. jexster - 1/20/2004 6:47:44 PM

But Al is right and without 90% vote from the freaked out fundie "Base", the Cheney Regime hasn't a snowball's chance in hell of staying in power.


Now I'll be the first to say that I have major issues with the Base.

Al, do have one with colored folk?

249. jexster - 1/20/2004 6:51:09 PM

I only regret that the Democrats of California won't have the high honor of handing Mrs. Lieberman hubbie's head.

250. jexster - 1/20/2004 6:53:34 PM

Now Wiz, you know that vK has labored mightily to lower the temperature and raise the tone on this thread.

Those little photo thingies you do piss Al off no end, you realize that don't you?

251. jexster - 1/20/2004 6:58:23 PM

Wiz..speaking of MoveOn and pissing Al off...

Check out the SOTU ad..

The Bush Medicare Swindle: Its Enough to Make You Sick Real Player

252. concerned - 1/20/2004 7:03:05 PM

C'mon, WoW. Just a little friendly wager. Al 'n Jay seem like stand-up guys.

253. Magoseph - 1/20/2004 7:22:24 PM

What's the black population of NH? Anyone?

Around 7%, I think, Jex.

254. jexster - 1/20/2004 7:52:46 PM

Well so much for the Big Bad Negro theory..

FYI Josh Marshall by popular demand of his Talking Points fans is on the campaign trail. Now in NH...black ghetto of New England.

255. jexster - 1/20/2004 7:53:30 PM

I'll vouch for Al...not too sure about that Jay fella

256. jexster - 1/20/2004 9:20:21 PM

Kerry is followin on hard with email to supporters



Thank You Iowa! On to New Hampshire!

There were three tickets out of Iowa - and we won the gold. Two weeks ago, the pundits counted me out and called Iowa a two-person race. They didn't count on Iowa voters.

Our campaign is on the move -- up! We just turned the conventional wisdom on its head and defied the pundits, because we listened to the voters -- and they listened to us and not to the polls or the politicians.

https://contribute.johnkerry.com

This first place finish amounts to nothing less than thunderous victory for our campaign. Front runner Howard Dean had it all. He had the endorsements of Al Gore, Bill Bradley, and Tom Harkin. He had a record $41 million raised in the off-year. He had a 20-point lead in Iowa and a 35-point lead in New Hampshire. He should have beaten every other candidate by a mile -- but he didn't.

The people of Iowa like our chances of sending George Bush back to Crawford, Texas in November. They shouted it out of the heartland and shook the political landscape.

Your support made a difference. I am truly grateful to you for everything you do for this campaign -- this is not just my victory, it's ours.

Now, on to New Hampshire! Here we face two well-funded candidates, but we've got them on the run (we've pulled even with Clark and we're coming up on Dean) and we're only just beginning. Governor Jeanne Shaheen told me that we need results in Iowa and the funding to get out our vote. We've delivered the results, now we need to deliver the funds.

I need your help,...

https://contribute.johnkerry.com

Thank you for your belief in our campaign -- it has made the difference.

On to New Hampshire,

257. vonKreedon - 1/20/2004 9:49:57 PM

Wiz - As Jex pointed out, most of your political art really is not appropriate for this thread. You have the Politics thread, please keep this thread for discussion of the elections.

Jex - Thanks for pointing that out, but you then link to MoveOn's response to the SotU, this would be appropriate for Politics. I appreciate that you have been posting your own thoughts at some length in this thread; you have well formed opinions and analysis and I look forward to seeing more of it.

Carry on.

258. concerned - 1/20/2004 10:17:05 PM

C'mon, people. Don't give up on Dean yet. Remember these?

23. wonkers2 - 1/15/2004 3:36:16 AM

Clark/Edwards would be good, but I prefer Dean/Edwards or Dean/Clark. The idea of someone going from General to President doesn't work for me.

24. jayackroyd - 1/15/2004 3:39:01 AM

...Like I'm at this point committed to Dean as the best anti-Bush candidate.....

47. TheWizardOfWhimsy - 1/15/2004 5:02:45 PM

Handsome?—if you find Bloodhounds appealing!
I sent his campaign a donation early on, but switched my support (and many more donations) to Dean because Kerry supported Bush on his Iraq War.

And I distinctly recall jexster throwing his support to Dean earlier in the Politics thread. The Ship of Dean is only listing and already you guys are deserting. There's a decent chance he'll make up lost ground in NH. Maybe you people should be called the Ficklecrats.

259. Al D - 1/20/2004 10:57:46 PM

Is Dean losing appeal from former supporters because he came in 3rd in Iowa or because of the way he behaved afterward?

WoW
Well, it is easy to spout off about the election, but obviously you don't really mean what you say. And jexster is wrong about me being pissed off about what you post. At first I was convinced you were a teenager that just didn't know any better. Now I realize you are an adult that doesn't know any better. It is somewhat of a mystery to me why people objectify humans as pigs and monkeys. Well really, when you see what they want to do to those they animalize, it is not much of a mystery, is it.

261. vonKreedon - 1/21/2004 2:44:24 AM

WoW post #260 has been deleted.

Wiz - Take your attitude elsewhere.

262. wonkers2 - 1/21/2004 9:35:32 AM

I would like to see the post that you deleted. Why didn't you send it to the Inferno. The Mote doesn't benefit from over-weening censors or would-be czars.

263. wonkers2 - 1/21/2004 9:41:00 AM

Dem establishment favorites Kerry and Clark may kill each other off in New Hampshire as Dean and Gephardt did in Iowa.

264. vonKreedon - 1/21/2004 10:12:12 AM

I will move to the Inferno in the future. I hope that will not be necessary.

The post consisted of taunting Al and Con, telling me to shove this thread up my ass, and a cartoon lampooning the SotU address.

265. concerned - 1/21/2004 11:15:21 AM

If WoW gratuitously included me in one of his insult fests, I feel no particular need to see it regurgitated.

266. judithathome - 1/21/2004 11:18:57 AM

VonK, I think Al ought to get a little chide, also...he isn't immune to button pushing himself.

267. jexster - 1/21/2004 12:02:33 PM

Tracking poll who's got a tracking poll....Dean is in trouble...

Not unexpectedly, John Kerry has made a big jump in this morning's ARG tracking poll. The Numbers: Dean 26%, Kerry 24%, Clark 18%.

The poll analysis reads ...

While Howard Dean has a 2 percentage-point lead over John Kerry in the 3-day average, Kerry has a 1 percentage-point lead in the 2-day average (sample size of 508 likely Democratic primary voters) and Kerry has a 5 percentage-point lead in the one-day sample on January 20 (the sample size of 302 likely Democratic voters, theoretical margin of error ± 6 percentage points). Also, from January 19 to January 20, Wesley Clark is up 1 percentage point and John Edwards is up 3 percentage points. There is no change for Joe Lieberman.
Zogby is also running a tracking NH tracking poll now and his numbers (Dean 25%, Kerry 23%, Clark 16%) are broadly similar.

-- Josh Marshall

268. judithathome - 1/21/2004 12:07:41 PM

The Ship of Dean is only listing and already you guys are deserting.

I'm wondering why it is LWers don't have the option of changing their minds? I must have missed that page in the handbook where it says "You will choose a candidate and stick with him no matter what; it is verboten to change your support once you choose."

I thought that sort of rule was only in the RIGHT Wingers Handbook!

269. jexster - 1/21/2004 12:11:18 PM

Electability fever - Catch it!

270. concerned - 1/21/2004 12:13:17 PM

Poll Shows Kerry Surge in New Hampshire

There are now seven dwarves since they have already consumed two of their own. Dean initially surged to a big lead as an inflammatory 'anti-Bush' and now Kerry threatens to take the brass ring from him as the 'anti-Dean' in NH. The NH primary could well be pivotal to the hopes of both Dean and Kerry given its proximity to their home turfs, although Dean will be in the running at least into March, regardless of how it goes for him now, given the support he has from hardcore Bush haters. A good showing in NH will be important to Weasley also, since Edwards could potentially eat his lunch if he does similarly or better than Clark there.

271. jexster - 1/21/2004 12:16:47 PM

You are so right TD....it will be hard to knock Dean out with 41 million in the kitty and a strong CA field op.

He'd be a fool to drop out before March 3rd. Clark, Kerry and Edwards are certainly more likely to do so esp Edwards but my hunch is that all four will be in Super Tuesday.

272. jexster - 1/21/2004 12:17:22 PM

Lieberman ought to go back to DC and register as the agent of a foreign government

273. jexster - 1/21/2004 12:18:27 PM

That would be the "statesman" like thing to do wouldn't it?

274. concerned - 1/21/2004 12:25:09 PM

Re. 268 -

JAH -

I just think what happened in Iowa was somewhat amusing since it seemed apparent enough to me that Dean's popularity didn't have much of a chance to hold up for the long haul or at least that he would eventually say too much that was indefensible not to hurt his electoral chances at some point. I was a little surprised that he imploded in Iowa so quickly, though.

I even had a rather spirited discussion a week ago with a (then Dean supporting - I don't know what his position is at this moment) brother in law about this and the fact that Dean was digging himself into a hole with his over-the-top accusations. But, no, my brother in law insisted that Dean was the man because he had so much obvious 'enthusiasm' and 'spirit'.

275. jexster - 1/21/2004 12:29:04 PM

Lest any doubt that Lieberman is toast...first he slings RNC/Drudge sludge now this..the final nail in his coffin


Lieberman on Tuesday received the endorsement of the conservative Manchester Union Leader newspaper, which called him a "man of conviction" and urged independent voters to consider supporting him in the Democratic primary.


The endorsement drew a rebuke of Lieberman from state Democratic Party Chairman Kathleen Sullivan. "I'm very disappointed that he accepted the Union Leader endorsement," she told reporters. "The Union Leader has not stood with Democratic principles for decades, and it really breaks my heart to see someone I respect so much accept an endorsement from that newspaper."

276. concerned - 1/21/2004 12:33:14 PM

Re. 273 -

Ha!

277. jexster - 1/21/2004 1:06:49 PM

You've heard the old saying "You can't beat something with nothing?"

Nothing 45 Something (however meager!) 43...



On the generic horse race question for 2004, 43 percent say they'd vote for Bush, while 45 percent say they'd support the Democratic candidate. That's down from a 9 point lead Bush had after Saddam was captured and, again, is several points weaker than he was peforming before the capture.

Address Takes Campaign Criticism Into Account
Analysis: Bush's reactive tone showed his consciousness of Democratic candidates' attacks.

All in due time little monkey all in due time...

278. judithathome - 1/21/2004 1:28:03 PM

I was a little surprised that he imploded in Iowa so quickly, though.

To be honest, he had a lot of help from the media.

279. wonkers2 - 1/21/2004 1:28:07 PM

Has he gotten Ariel Sharon's endorsement yet?

280. judithathome - 1/21/2004 1:29:18 PM

By that I meant if you tell the public loudly enough and often enough that a man is insane, they will start to believe it.

Unless, of course, the man is Bush.

281. vonKreedon - 1/21/2004 1:34:58 PM

Jon Stewart led with Dean's "concession" speech last night. He certainly looked and sounded like a man in search of a bar fight. The media can harp on his anger managment problems, but it only has any traction if he gives them video demonstrating this.

Jon also showed Ted Kennedy introducing Kerry. Ted didn't look like he was angry, but he did look like his tie was WAY too tight, and his head might just explode.

282. judithathome - 1/21/2004 2:26:25 PM

but it only has any traction if he gives them video demonstrating this.

Anyone who watches reality TV (as I'm sure most of you don't) knows that things aren't always how they seem when the tapes are played. I'm not saying Dean hasn't made some really huge goofs. Yes, he has given them pleanty of ammo but just as the Clark quote was passed around out of context over the weekend and taken up as something "he said", much of the angry, wild-eyed, raving idiot stuff about Dean has been exaggerated and taken out of sequence.

283. wonkers2 - 1/21/2004 3:52:16 PM

Dean was just trying to pump up his troops. NBD.

284. wonkers2 - 1/21/2004 3:53:13 PM

Why don't we try to focus on substance (policies and programs) not style or the spouse's hairdo.

285. wonkers2 - 1/21/2004 3:54:38 PM

Cap'n Dirty sez "The Cap'n could go fer the Missus Kerry. She's a looker and smart, too!"

286. Magoseph - 1/21/2004 3:59:05 PM

And I sez that I could go fer the Mister Kerry. He is smart and a looker too!

287. wonkers2 - 1/21/2004 4:00:07 PM

Ha! Not compared to The Cap'n!

288. vonKreedon - 1/21/2004 4:02:43 PM

Wonk - I think that we need to focus both on substance and image. And I am afraid that of the two image is the more crucial to getting elected.

289. wonkers2 - 1/21/2004 4:05:53 PM

True. We need a little of Edwards to rub off on Kerry and/or Dean. For me there's something off-putting about both of them. Edwards is almost as slick as "Slick Willy." But I doubt he measures up on policy knowledge.

290. concerned - 1/21/2004 4:20:04 PM

And I am afraid that of the two image is the more crucial to getting elected.

You have that right, at least with regard to the current Democrat presidential candidates. It's unfortunate for the Donkey Party that the 'too sedate' Gephardt has already bowed out and that Lieberman's getting no respect while 'Mr. Popularity's' blowing gaskets.

291. concerned - 1/21/2004 4:24:57 PM

What does anybody want to bet that Howard Dean won't be on a tranquilizer during the next Democrat Candidate debate?

292. concerned - 1/21/2004 4:28:38 PM

Re. 286 -

He looks like something out of the '60's TV series the 'Addams Family' to me.


'You Rannnnnggg?'

293. Magoseph - 1/21/2004 4:42:07 PM

State of the Union: Long on Long, Short on Lofty"

Talking about image, here is candidate Bush's image to the world!

We like a confident president, but we don't like a cocky president, and George W. Bush had too many moments of cockiness last night as he delivered his third State of the Union address to both houses of Congress and the viewing nation. Often the words of the speech were written to sound lofty, but Bush had such a big Christmas-morning grin on his face that they came out sounding like taunts -- taunts to the rest of the world or taunts to Democrats in the hall.

294. judithathome - 1/21/2004 4:47:19 PM

You have that right, at least with regard to the current Democrat presidential candidates.

Yes, because god knows, the Bloated Pachyderm Party has a candidate that looks perfect. Forget that he looks like a confused chimpanzee half the time and walks like one, too. He is what America and Concerned want...a damned good looking chimpanzee!

Concerned, for a centrist, you certainly betray which way you skew...

295. judithathome - 1/21/2004 4:48:18 PM

toys!

296. vonKreedon - 1/21/2004 4:51:24 PM

Please, I beg of you all, do not use this thread as a venue for taunt and insult fests, we have the Inferno for such activities.

Thanks.

297. judithathome - 1/21/2004 4:58:47 PM

Strangely, given my penchant for picking on Concerned, I like the way Edwards has kept his campaign "nice" and yet, he has admitted if attacked, he will defend himself and give back what is thrown his way. I think the people in Iowa liked that he kept a positive approach to his campaigning and it showed in the way he rose in the numbers the last part of the week.

I don't know how long he can maintain this position or this approach but it is rather refreshing to see it attempted on a national level.

298. vonKreedon - 1/21/2004 5:02:10 PM

The Edwards surge was very interesting. Typically people say that they want positive campaigns and hate how negative campaigning has become, BUT when push becomes shove the negative campaign wins. Edwards appeared to reverse that convention, at least in Iowa. I do wonder what that strategy will be like once Edwards becomes the target of negative attention.

299. wonkers2 - 1/21/2004 5:32:23 PM

Re: #296. I assume your edict won't stop us from pointing out what a lieing asshole our President is. As I've pointed out before Moties only go from good to excellent.

300. vonKreedon - 1/21/2004 5:35:29 PM

Wonk - Right, within the confines of discussing the upcoming elections, the candidates are fair game for invective, mindless or thoughtful (not that Thoughtful is given to invective). I just want us to treat each other with more curiosity and respect than that.

301. robertjayb - 1/21/2004 6:09:39 PM

Safire, a slimy but masterful word-wrangler, is on his game in this Dean piece...

...the qualities that made him a great underdog made him a disaster as a front-runner. The engaging feistiness was soon taken to be calculated anger; the Trumanesque cockiness, as he surged ahead, was seen as smug arrogance. He reveled in the opinion polls and became a sore winner, but piqued too soon.

302. jexster - 1/21/2004 6:16:54 PM

Democrats 2004 - The Military Vote?

You bet. Attack from the right.

PORTSMOUTH, N.H. (Reuters) - Democratic presidential candidate Wesley Clark (news - web sites) played to his strengths on Wednesday, stressing his military experience to veterans and promoting his foreign policy credentials by pledging to "clean up the mess" in Iraq (news - web sites).



Running third in the Reuters/MSNBC/Zogby tracking poll in New Hampshire, the retired Army general aggressively courted veterans, who make up a sizable voting bloc in the state, with rival Democrat John Kerry (news - web sites), a Vietnam war hero, also seeking their support.

303. jexster - 1/21/2004 6:28:26 PM

Aside from Joe Lieberman, he said, none of the major Democratic contenders have substantial negatives with New Hampshire voters. The state’s voters support one candidate or another, but they tend to like the other ones, too

Marshall on the Kerry Campaign in NH - The Hill

Not just NH voters. I am on 3 internet lists myself - Clark, Kerry, Dean. This makes the situation extremely fluid as voters with electability fever will move back and forth as their assessments change.

Although I think I have come to rest with Clark, I would have no problem with the other two or even Edwards though I believe he's off the electability radar Iowa notwithstanding.

Only one with high negatives....only the Joe Lierbman (Likud-Connecticutt)

304. wonkers2 - 1/21/2004 6:54:47 PM

My sentiments exactly, except Dean is my first choice.

305. jexster - 1/21/2004 6:59:24 PM

Maybe Wonk since you a bit longer in the tooth than I, you can remember anything like this in either party - where any of four candidates not only are in the running but where most democrats will give each almost equal standing looking only to electabillity.

That Bush is a uniter, not a divider, that's for damn sure.

Uniting the world against him...uniting Sadr & Sistani...and uniting Democrats of all things

306. jexster - 1/21/2004 7:04:07 PM

Former NH Sen. John Durkin withdrew his Dean endorsement.

307. concerned - 1/21/2004 7:11:04 PM

Re. 294 -

JAH -

I'm shocked, SHOCKED, that you would stoop to such billingsgate.

308. robertjayb - 1/21/2004 8:12:47 PM

jexster,

re your message 392 above:

Don't count your soldier boys just yet. Take a look at this: Online military vote scheme said insecure...

A new $22 million system to allow soldiers and other Americans overseas to vote via the Internet is inherently insecure and should be abandoned, according to members of a panel of computer security experts asked by the government to review the program.
...............................

The authors of the new report noted that computer security experts had already voiced increasingly strong warnings about the reliability of electronic voting systems, but they said the new voting program, which allows people overseas to vote from their personal computers over the Internet, raised the ante on such systems' risks.

The system, they wrote, "has numerous other fundamental security problems that leave it vulnerable to a variety of well-known cyber attacks, any one of which could be catastrophic." Any system for voting over the Internet with common personal computers, they noted, would suffer from the same risks.


Remember Florida and keep your powder dry!

309. jexster - 1/21/2004 8:20:57 PM

392???

Corruption cuts both ways Robert..we're goin for the military vote this time...mmm....don't fire til you see the yellow in Cheney's eyes!

310. jexster - 1/21/2004 8:22:38 PM

Damn Dean is gettin pasted for what I have to concede was Concession Speech Unhinged...

As my nephew would say "Jeezaleezus"

That's why Durbin withdrew his endorsement.

311. robertjayb - 1/21/2004 9:11:27 PM

Sorry. 302

312. jexster - 1/21/2004 9:58:58 PM

The attack forms on the right...watch those military ballot boxes...those votes belong to us..

If George Bush wants national security to be the central issue of the campaign, I want to tell you, I know something about aircraft carriers for real. If he wants to make national security the centerpiece of this campaign, I have three words for you that may sound familiar: 'Bring it on!'

James Carville wandered around in a yellow LSU Nike jacket, avowing that he was just looking, not buying. He hasn't signed on with Kerry—at least not yet.


Kerry Serves Up 5 Alarm Stump Speech

I saw clips on PBS tonight...it was kickin...Clark was good too at VFW but could have used a touch of tobasco...

313. robertjayb - 1/21/2004 11:04:45 PM

Dean continues cash collection...

MANCHESTER, N.H. (AP) -- Democratic presidential candidate Howard Dean has raised $590,000 since his damaging Iowa loss, his campaign reported Wednesday night.

He isn't the only candidate to turn their performance in Iowa into new campaign money. Sens. John Kerry and John Edwards, who finished one-two in that state's precinct caucuses, each took in tens of thousands of dollars over their Web sites within hours of the voting.

314. Magoseph - 1/22/2004 8:26:55 AM

More troubles for Dean?

"Powell said it was ``just awful'' and ``total absurdity'' for former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean to speak openly about theories that suggest Bush was warned in advance about the terrorist attacks of Sept. 11, 2001. Nearly 3,000 people were killed in New York, Washington and Pennsylvania.

``That is a total absurdity,'' Powell said when asked about the comment during an interview on ``The Sean Hannity Show'' on Fox News Channel. ``It is really sad that any candidate would make such a statement. He has no basis for making such a statement.

``None of us knew about 9/11 before the attack. My God, to suggest that responsible people, the president of the United States, would have known about that before the fact and not done anything about it, it is just, it's just, it's awful,'' Powell said.

Dean since has said he doesn't believe Bush new about the attacks in advance.

Powell also was asked about comments by Ohio Rep. Dennis Kucinich, another Democratic presidential hopeful, and Sen. Edward Kennedy, D-Mass., regarding Bush's war on terrorism.

``One, I'm annoyed. Second, they know better. Three, they must be desperate,'' Powell said. ``I mean, the American people aren't going to fall for these kinds of ridiculous, outrageous and irresponsible charges.''"

315. Magoseph - 1/22/2004 8:31:49 AM

Toys!

316. jexster - 1/22/2004 11:31:49 AM

317. jexster - 1/22/2004 11:34:03 AM

He didn't mention his roadmap

Not a word about those who died

Not a word from his JFK moonie act

Steroids..steriods..SOTU on steroids...

They're polls must not look so good.

318. jexster - 1/22/2004 11:35:22 AM

err about those who continue to die for last SOTU's sack of yellowcake

319. jexster - 1/22/2004 11:38:36 AM

320. jexster - 1/22/2004 12:55:58 PM

i3b3..

Sharpton(!!!!) Battles Electability Fever in SC

321. jexster - 1/22/2004 12:58:26 PM

The media can harp on his anger managment problems, but it only has any traction if he gives them video demonstrating this.

Who cares about the media?

Just run a clip...no voice over...and close

Bush/Cheney 2004

322. robertjayb - 1/22/2004 1:20:01 PM

All five polls shown today on Daily Kos rank the NH contenders:

Kerry, Dean, Clark, Edwards, Lieberman with Kerry gaining 3 to 7 points since the previous poll.

323. TheWizardOfWhimsy - 1/22/2004 2:23:20 PM

Gee vK—no admonishment of jexster for polluting your thread with images—how evenhanded of you!

324. Magoseph - 1/22/2004 2:32:45 PM

I don't think he was here this morning. Just wait until he checks his thread, VK will take care of Spamming Jex.

325. robertjayb - 1/22/2004 2:57:23 PM

Ahem__

A moon base? I mean

__C'mon Y'all__

ARE YOU SERIOUS?

A FRIGGIN' MOON BASE?!

(Okay, that's enough__)

A $@*#&% MOON BASE?!!

326. wonkers2 - 1/22/2004 3:30:29 PM

Powell said, "I mean the American people aren't going to fall for these kinds of ridiculous, outrageous, and irresponsible charges."

I assume he's referring to Bush's wild claims about WMD in the 2002 State of the Union, his own presentation to the UN on WMD, Cheney's continuing statements on WMD, etc.

327. vonKreedon - 1/22/2004 3:33:07 PM

Wiz - Feel free to mail me with suggestions for better implementation of my thread guidelines.

All - In the interest of keeping this thread on topic and as civil as possible please look at the thread guidelines and remember that this is, The thread for discussing the upcoming elections in the USA: local, state and national. Discussion/images relating to the SotU, Iraq policy, taxes etc. should relate to their effects on the elections.

I am hoping that I can become less of a net nanny than I have been and still host a thread in which I would want to participate.

328. jexster - 1/22/2004 3:36:32 PM

FogHorn Leghorn to endorse Kerry

329. jexster - 1/22/2004 3:38:48 PM

You gotta keep it topical Wiz...

For instance, the above...

I could have said "Hollings to Endorse Kerry in Major SC Development" or something like that.

But I wouldn't have been communicating to anyone in particular.

Now the above clearly shows Hollings offering to play ball with TD...

330. jexster - 1/22/2004 3:45:45 PM

Latest NH Polls via K St. Kerry Kontact





Suffolk University/WHDH

Kerry 27% (up 7% in one day)

Dean 19%

Clark 15%

Edwards 7%

Lieberman 6%



Boston Herald

Kerry 31%

Dean 21%

Clark 15%

Edwards 11%



Zogby

Kerry 27%

Dean 24%

Clark 15%

Edwards 8%

Lieberman 6%

331. vonKreedon - 1/22/2004 4:12:16 PM

Jex - Do you have links to any recent polling data for the Feb. 3rd states (SC, OK, AZ etc.)?

332. TheWizardOfWhimsy - 1/22/2004 5:45:02 PM

My images are topical and the images I posted in this thread had to do with the SOTU speech . . . which was way more about reelection than the state of our union.

The first (pre-speech) one had to do with Dubya's transparent reelection ploy to go to the moon and Mars— which I was trying to predict. If I had said the same thing, it wouldn't have had the same impact.

The second (post-speech) image dealt with Bush's total avoidance of bin Ladens' non-capture, Ken Lay's unpunished corruption; 500+ American's dead in Iraq and the prohibition of Americans purchasing cheaper drugs in Canada.

Can I help it if an anti-image, word-based, bunch of visual illiterates are running the entire world? vK obviously didn't get it and I railed against his unfair, proprietary thuggery with regard to his power here—how Bushian!

333. robertjayb - 1/22/2004 6:36:47 PM

Tonight's Dean television trifecta:

8 p.m., NH debate----Fox

10 p.m., ABC Primetime

11:35 p.m., CBS David Letterman

Info via Daily Kos----Times Eastern

334. jexster - 1/22/2004 6:38:12 PM

Not yet vK...though I think I saw something about Arizona a few weeks ago but I can't remember where. When K ST doesn't pass along his propaganda (same guy was responding to my Newsom contrib solicitations with requests to bang doors for Dick G in Iowa), I rely on Josh Marshall.

I think the Arizona Republic is running polls.

335. jexster - 1/22/2004 6:40:33 PM

I am just teasin you Wiz but seriously, complex rules can be a minefield, to navigate properly you need the expertise of nationally recognized law firm to protect your interests...dial 1-800-555-4LAW operators are standing by

;)

336. jexster - 1/22/2004 6:43:02 PM

Please disregard the pic link to Center for American Progress unless intereest in Cheney's latest lies...

I meant a pic link to their SOTU roundup..I guess that' still what you'll get but apparently the picture will change as they update their site

337. Magoseph - 1/22/2004 6:43:06 PM

Can I help it if an anti-image, word-based, bunch of visual illiterates are running the entire world? vK obviously didn't get it and I railed against his unfair, proprietary thuggery with regard to his power here—how Bushian!

You definitely have a valid point, Whiz!

338. wonkers2 - 1/22/2004 7:29:10 PM

VK, Please don't censor WoW's images. They are one of the most entertaining features of the MOTE. And what's the problem if someone drifts slightly off topic once in a while in this or any other thread? Moties don't like to be regimented too much unless there is a compelling reason for doing so.

339. jexster - 1/22/2004 7:50:03 PM

My email is now cluttered with K St. Krap...

"National Press Clips for Thursday, January 22, 2004 - Candidates"

Every GD day I am getting this shit...

340. jexster - 1/22/2004 7:56:41 PM

BUSH-CHENEY BUMPER STICKERS

Bush/Cheney '04: We didn't elect them--we don't have to keep them.

Bush/Cheney '04: Compassionate Colonialism

Bush/Cheney '04: Because the Truth Just Isn't Good
Enough.

Bush/Cheney '04: Deja-voodoo All over Again!

Bush/Cheney '04: Four More Wars

Bush/Cheney '04: Leave No Billionaire Behind

Bush/Cheney '04: Making the World a Better Place, One
Country at a Time.

Bush/Cheney '04: Over a Billion Whoppers Served.

Bush/Cheney '04: Putting the "Con" in Conservatism

Bush/Cheney '04: Thanks for Not Paying Attention
.
Bush/Cheney '04: The Last Vote You'll Ever Have to
Cast.

Bush/Cheney '04: This Time, Elect Us!

Bush/Cheney '04: Asses of Evil

Bush/Cheney '04: Don't Think. Vote Bush!

George W. Bush: A Brainwave Away from the Presidency

George W. Bush: The Buck Stops Over There

341. jexster - 1/22/2004 9:57:24 PM

Very interesting finding in the latest Pew Poll;

Americans view Howard Dean as more liberal than the other leading Democratic candidates
and far more liberal than the way they see themselves. For his part, President Bush is seen as more conservative than the average person. Bush is somewhat further from the ideological self-perception of the average American than are several leading Democratic candidates, like Wesley Clark, Richard Gephardt and John Kerry. Ideologically, Dean is seen as further from the average American than Bush, but that is largely due to Dean’s extremely liberal image among Republicans. Independents rate both Dean and Bush as equally far from their own ideological self-assessments.

The public clearly places Bush to the right of the ideological spectrum. On an ideological
scale ranging from 1-6 (where 1 is the most conservative and 6 is the most liberal), those who can rate the president give him an average score of 2.7. Respondents rate their own ideological leanings as close to the center; the midpoint on the 1-6 scale is 3.5 and the public’s rating, on average, is 3.3.
For the most part, the leading Democratic candidates are closer ideologically to the public’s average than is Bush. But Dean is the exception – his overall rating of 4.2 places him decidedly to the left.

Bush 2.7
Mean public - 3.3
Clark - 3.6
Kerry - 3.8

342. jexster - 1/22/2004 9:57:57 PM

"Centrist" TD - 2.1

343. KuligintheHooligan - 1/22/2004 10:10:04 PM

Current odds by the bookies to win the Democratic nomination:

Al Gore 75-1


Al Sharpton 1000-1


Dennis Kucinich 1000-1


Hillary Rodham Clinton 35-1


Howard Dean 2-1


Joe Lieberman 15-1


John Edwards 4-1


John Kerry 5-9


Wesley Clark 4-1

344. rdbrewer - 1/23/2004 8:38:33 AM

Edwards had too many hot totties at the old folks home yesterday.


"Heheee..!" "HAAHGHCK!" "Hahaha!"

345. jexster - 1/23/2004 8:44:59 AM

This year's Electability Fever epidemic is worse than the flu ...

Kerry Dean Defend Electability in Debate

346. Magoseph - 1/23/2004 9:03:46 AM

I missed the flap over a reference by someone to the effect that Bush was a deserter and the drift connected that accusation in some indirect fashion to Kerry. I wonder if anyone on this forum knows the real facts or supposed facts in respect to this whole matter.

347. jexster - 1/23/2004 9:15:59 AM

"I want to thank the astronauts who are with us, the courageous spacial entrepreneurs who set such a wonderful example for the young of our country."—Washington, D.C., Jan. 14, 2004

George W. Bush:

A Brainwave Away from the Presidency

348. jexster - 1/23/2004 9:19:48 AM

RD..a real spacial pic that...thaynk yuh ..mayghtay fayhn

349. Magoseph - 1/23/2004 9:27:19 AM

Answer post 346, please, Jex!

350. TheWizardOfWhimsy - 1/23/2004 9:27:38 AM

Where's our proprietary anti-image host?

Mags and Wonk, thanks for the support.

351. jexster - 1/23/2004 9:28:38 AM

I didn't cause I have not heard anything about it.

I'll make something up..like TD??

352. jexster - 1/23/2004 9:30:12 AM

I support you Wiz.

353. jexster - 1/23/2004 9:30:40 AM

and RD too...his pics are spacial

354. jexster - 1/23/2004 9:39:18 AM

Independents' Views: Read 'Em and Weep, Karl

355. vonKreedon - 1/23/2004 10:28:21 AM

All - I have responded to complaints about my treatment of WoW in the Inferno.

356. vonKreedon - 1/23/2004 10:40:26 AM

Regarding the debate last night:

I thought that Edwards did very well. His skill as a trial lawyer was apparent, both in his ability to discern, focus on and make the most advantageous argument, and for his ability to push the envelope of what the moderators would allow in extending his on-screen time.

I thought that Dean continues to look like he's drowning. I now wonder if his campaign will survive the Feb. 3rd primaries.

What has happened to Kerry? Suddenly the man looks ... well, not embalmed. Did he lose weight? His hands still tend to look like they are being operated by a different process than the one operating his voice, but still he looks far more engaged and energetic than he has for years.

Lieberman and Sharpton had the best lines, to paraphrase, "...I'd say good try." and "...if I'd spent that money in Iowa and only gotten 18% of the vote I'd still be yelling." Sharpton also had, for me, the most jarring line, "I am unilaterally opposed to the DoMA..." Well, I really can't support a unilateralist you know.

Clark needed to shine in this debate and I'm afraid that he did not. His handling of the Moore "deserter" question could have been smoother, but he did use it as an opportunity to highlight the breadth of his support accross the Dem political spectrum. I don't know if this question really hurts him in the Dem nomination process, but I'm sure the Repubs would resurrect it in the general. Clark needs to not be such a stickler for the rules. Every other candidate used the sounding of the bell as a sign that they had another 30 seconds to make yet more points and soak up more screen-time; Clark would stop in the middle of a sentence. The one time Clark went over time, on the issue of his supposed flip-flopping, I thought he was very effective.

Kucinich, the man is adorable and totally looks like the aging captain of the High School Debate, Chess, Computer and D&D clubs.

357. wonkers2 - 1/23/2004 10:52:57 AM

Well, that settles it.

358. robertjayb - 1/23/2004 11:07:45 AM

Magoseph,

Michael Moore (Bowling for Columbine and Dude, Where's my Country) has endorsed Wesley Clark for president. Apparently, he has also referred to dubya as a deserter from his duties in the Texas Air National Guard.

Debate moderator Peter Jennings tried twice to get Clark to disavow Moore's support because of this outrageous slander of the LOFW. Clark refused, saying that while he had heard stories about dubya's military career he didn't know the truth and wasn't very interested anyway and besides that Michael Moore was entitled to have his own opinions and express them anyway he wished. Jennings didn't seem satisfied with that reasonable response.

Tales of dubya being AWOL from duty stem from the absence of records accounting for his whereabouts at all times. This is the same reasoning the bushies and neocons use to make claims of Saddam's supposed huge stocks of nasty weapons. There are no record of their destruction so, they say, he must still have them.

Desertion is a bit much. I think that desertion requires an intent to go away and stay away forever. And rather than AWOL, I think dubya can be charged more fairly with extended goofing off. After a time I think the Texas ANG didn't care very much what he did. They already had the flight-suit photos with the aircraft and his congressman daddy. The aircraft he was trained in was being phased out. He wasn't going to be a career pilot so there was no point in retraining him for another bird.

A personal suspicion is that he was never a fully-qualified, combat-ready pilot anyway.

359. TheWizardOfWhimsy - 1/23/2004 12:05:39 PM

You're right Robert, it was more like Absent With Other Liberties because his Daddy has pull with the powers who determine our budgets.

360. TheWizardOfWhimsy - 1/23/2004 12:07:38 PM

vK, your rebuttal is in The Inferno.

361. concerned - 1/23/2004 12:57:15 PM

Vote For Me or This Cat is History!

Yeaaarrrgh!

362. jexster - 1/23/2004 1:02:53 PM

vK..I missed the debate

Here are Teixeira's conclusions backed up by extensive polling data analysis linked above.

I have tertiary electability fever and Bush is quite vulnerable & likely to become more so.

Which candidate showed the most promise in your opinion under these criteria:
1. Independents will decide the outcome of the 2004 election.

2. Independents, because they're leaning toward the Democrats in so many different ways, will give the Democratic candidate a long and respectful listen in this election.

3. Therefore, the best candidate for the Democrats in 2004 will be the one who can communicate most effectively with independents and turn their leanings into actual votes.


Independents are weak party identifiers, not really independent which is largely a misnomer.

363. vonKreedon - 1/23/2004 1:11:43 PM

Jex - Given those three criteria ... I don't really know.

Edwards is a phenomenal communicator, and certainly speaks well to independents. OTOH, his inexperience was particularly highlighted in his reponse to the question on DoMA, and I think that this argues against him being at the top of the ticket.

Clark speaks well to independents, being more a liberal independent than a partisan Dem. I think that regarding your criteria, he is the best candidate for the general election. But his performances in the debates have been mediocre and he needs to appeal to partisan Dems to win the nomination.

Kerry seems to have remade himself in the last two weeks to appear much more approachable, passionate and caring. So the question with him is can he keep this up, or will he lapse back into his normal gravitas obsessed catatonia?

Dean would certainly attempt to run back to the center in the general election, but the Repubs would be sure that he could not.

At this point I think the ticket is likely to be Kerry/Edwards, though I'm still hoping for a Clark/Edwards ticket.

364. robertjayb - 1/23/2004 1:19:56 PM

I do believe that if Howard Dean had the cheerleading experience of dubya, Trent Lott and Kay Bailey Hutchinson, he could have handled that post-election rally with more skill.

What is it with GOP politicians and cheerleading? Is it that they tend to be both shallow and attractive?

We have beaucoup cheerleading schools in Texas. Howard should come on down.

In wayback times my first-ever actually published and paid-for feature article was about such a school.

My freelance career went downhill from there.

365. jexster - 1/23/2004 1:23:07 PM

Well I have about a month to decide, but its still Clark then with Kerry getting a second look. In California, I think independents can go either primary if memory serves so that augurs well for Clark.

Kerry's definitely remade his campaign not just himself.

Last night I got a call from a Dean volunteer asking me to join their saturday precinct walks starting tommorrow. Fraid not

366. robertjayb - 1/23/2004 1:23:54 PM

...will he lapse back into his normal gravitas obsessed catatonia?

Splendid, vonKreedon!

367. justears - 1/23/2004 1:31:34 PM

I am leaning towards Edwards. He can beat Bush all to hell on "good ole boy" charm and can offer reasoned arguments for positions to boot. It seems to me that the central criterion for President these days is "would I like to have a beer with him at the barbecue?" Kerry always gives me the " I am entitled" or even worse " I am destined to inherit JFK's mantle". Sometimes I like Clark's lucidity and pragmatic, technocratic ease.

368. jexster - 1/23/2004 1:46:22 PM

At a restaurant stop in New Mexico, Bush waxes on "rib economics." WPost

Bush/Cheney '04:

Putting the "Con" in Conservatism

369. TheWizardOfWhimsy - 1/23/2004 2:00:59 PM

As a vet, I'm torn and I'll bet there are a lot out there like me who trust Kerry and Clark to understand.

On one hand, I know Kerry's story and I know he's the real deal, but it seems like he needs to be prodded into action by circumstance. Then again, is that a bad thing for a POTUS?—especially compared to the unmeditated wingnut we have now.

I also trust Kerry more than Clark because of his experience with most of the Democratic party compared to Clark's relative recentness. That is to say, I would think Kerry's connections with the best and the brightest progressives is more in line with my hopes to counterbalance the NeoCon onslaught.

With regard to, Edwards, I have no problem voting for him if he can surmount his deep and more experienced Dem opponents' accusations of inexperience. What the hell, if a twerp like Dubya can vanquish a guy like John McCain (whom I would have voted for) then anything is possible.

The bottom line—it always comes down to A.B.B. — Anybody But Bush!

370. judithathome - 1/23/2004 2:18:38 PM

Is it that they tend to be both shallow and attractive?


Two out of two on all of them...wspecially Kay Bailey. She neglected her skin something fiere.

I think the cheerleaders succeed because they are used to showiing fake enthusiasm for things they don't quite understand (football) and they are used to being looked at and cheered on by crowds.

371. judithathome - 1/23/2004 2:19:45 PM

Okay, I have a new keybaord today and even that isn't helping my woeful typing.

372. Magoseph - 1/23/2004 2:24:27 PM

robertjayb,
Thank you for your post: Message # 358.

373. jexster - 1/23/2004 3:45:48 PM

mags is THIS what you were thinking of ... if not it should be!!!

SPECIAL AFTERNOON MISLEAD
Questions About Bush's Military Service Linger


Questions about President Bush's military service were raised at last night's Democratic debate by Peter Jennings who called charges of desertion from the Texas Air National Guard "reckless" and "not supported by the facts."1 However, meticulously collected evidence suggests that there are continuing questions.

ABC News anchor Peter Jennings questioned General Wesley Clark about whether he should have disputed supporter Michael Moore's assertion that President Bush was a "deserter" from the Texas Air National Guard in 1972. Mr. Jennings said, "At one point, Mr. Moore said, in front of you, that President Bush - he's saying he'd like to see you, the general, and President Bush, who he called a 'deserter.' Now, that's a reckless charge not supported by the facts. And I was curious to know why you didn't contradict him, and whether or not you think it would've been a better example of ethical behavior to have done so."2

Despite Mr. Jennings characterization, the facts relating to the president's military service, beginning in 1968, and abruptly ending in 1972 -- two years prior to his six-year commitment -- are not at all clear.
Investigative reporters with the Boston Globe looked into Bush's service during the 2000 presidential campaign, in an article that appeared on July 28th.3


A retired member of the Air National Guard has obtained several memos and official letters regarding Mr. Bush's military service, and provided an analysis of whether the president "did the duty necessary,"4 as he maintains.

374. jexster - 1/23/2004 3:48:01 PM

A scanned copy of President Bush's request to be transferred to an inactive postal Reserve unit in Alabama (he requested the transfer to work on a U.S. Senate campaign) can be viewed here


A scanned copy of the denial of Bush's transfer order be viewed here:


A scanned copy of the memo confirming Bush's suspension from the Air National guard for "failure to accomplish annual medical examination can be viewed here:


The full analysis can be viewed here:

375. jexster - 1/23/2004 3:53:00 PM

Why Robert ah defuh to yo expuhtayse..not beeeyun uh raysudayunt uv thuh Grayte Stayte..but ah thanyk weez lukin at a gahrdun varayuhtay Texus

Yeller Behlayed Sayup Sukkah

376. Magoseph - 1/23/2004 3:55:38 PM

mags is THIS what you were thinking of ... if not it should be!!!

It is, Jex. Robert wrote about it in post 358. I just heard part of a conversation on Imus this morning about Kerry and the AWOL matter in one of his speeches somewhere.

377. jexster - 1/23/2004 3:57:17 PM

And this is whay ayhm spaykun uuvv...



The Yellow Bellied Sapsucker
Sphyrapicus varius Bushicus

378. jexster - 1/23/2004 4:05:41 PM

CNN track Kerry up by 12, one shows The General movin out ahead of Dean who's fallen to #3

379. wonkers2 - 1/23/2004 4:26:38 PM

Big media did and is still doing an unfair job on Dean over his little speech to his supporters in Iowa. CNN is still recycling the tape over and over. The malefactors who own the networks are afraid that Dean will actually do something, possibly something they won't like and won't be able to control--the Viacoms, GEs and Murdochs. I think they consider Kerry a bit more tractable. If Clark starts to get traction the talking heads will start to feed on him also like piranhas.

380. judithathome - 1/23/2004 4:43:30 PM

The "liberal" media....my ass. There IS no liberal media.

381. vonKreedon - 1/23/2004 4:54:59 PM

I don't know that one needs a conspiracy against Dean to explain the airplay. Dean's rant was perfect reality TV imagery and would have gotten play simply based on ratings.

If this were not the dominant reason behind the airplay I would have expected Fox to downplay the video, since Dean is thought to be Rove's preferred Dem candidate, but they did not.

382. wonkers2 - 1/23/2004 5:04:54 PM

They are still re-cycling the video. Did anyone notice that Dean was smiling as he was ranting? A mountain out of a mole hill. You can bet your sweet ass GE and Murdoch and Viacom, et al, would worry more about Dean as President than Kerry or especially Lieberman. Of course they prefer Bush over any of the Dems. The talking heads know which side their bread is buttered on.

383. wonkers2 - 1/23/2004 5:06:03 PM

The same goes for the establishment DEMS who are divided between Kerry and Clark.

384. jexster - 1/23/2004 5:06:06 PM

No all I noticed, all I needed to notice was the rant
...

next dean email I go off the list..

I want to beat Bush

385. Magoseph - 1/23/2004 5:06:58 PM

won,
I just saw Kerry on Crossfire being interviewed by Novak and Begalia. I had been told that he was a strong debater and a commanding figure in this type of situation. Nevertheless, I really didn't expect what I got. This man has an overwhelming presence, he is decisive, and stays on point no matter the degree of pressure. The last thing in the world that President Bush should entertain is an encounter with this individual before the public. It would probably turn out to be pitiful.

386. Magoseph - 1/23/2004 5:36:37 PM

I don't believe the voting record of males versus females has been emphasized in this election. Yet it is a fact that the Republicans get a majority of the male voters and I believe that is one of the biggest factors in this election. The Republicans are quite aware of where their support is, male: issues such as right to carry guns, subordination of women through legislation controlling their bodies, etc.
The candidate the Republicans they picked was perfect. George Bush is the poster--man's man. He is married to a non-working woman. He plays an excellent dumbo. That with the boots and cow boy hat endear him to the group they're after and they got them in the last election. I was told early in this selection cycle by people I respect that to offset the male edge incorporated into the Republican party, a candidate similar to Kerry was essential. Kerry would definitely bite into the male macho majority and would hold the women.
After watching Kerry's performance today, I stand converted. It is possible that Clark would be just as effective. At the moment, I am leaning to Kerry.

387. judithathome - 1/23/2004 5:37:56 PM

We can only hope....

388. judithathome - 1/23/2004 5:39:51 PM

...that the meeting between Bush and Kerry will be pitiful. As it will be, I'm sure.

389. vonKreedon - 1/23/2004 5:45:02 PM

Keep in mind that most of us expected that Gore would mop the floor with Bush.

What I fear in Kerry is that he will appear aloof, somber, overly cerebral and postured, all qualities he has had in the past. Clark is none of these things, but he is also more likely to make a big mistake than Kerry. Still, I think that going with known and safe is unlikely to win this election.

390. jexster - 1/23/2004 6:25:16 PM

I didn't.

I thought he'd beat him, but, aside from a brief glimmer of hope from the Acceptance Speech and the Kiss, I'd generally been of the opinion that Gore was the worst campaigner in modern US political history.

391. jexster - 1/23/2004 6:26:51 PM

And he did beat him...


Clark Gets Organized - Caravan to Arizona
January 30 – February 4th

We will caravan to Arizona on January 30 – February 4th to assist with the campaign for the Feb. 3rd primary. Let us know if you would like to drive or just need a ride. People from all of California will be joining us. If you can’t go for the whole time, fly down for the weekend.

392. concerned - 1/23/2004 7:35:09 PM

Last night I got a call from a Dean volunteer asking me to join their saturday precinct walks starting tommorrow. Fraid not

Fucking fickle.

(Say that a dozen times in quick succession.)

393. robertjayb - 1/23/2004 7:55:26 PM

--------FLASH--------

Mondale for Kerry:

Former Vice President Walter Mondale backed John Kerry's presidential campaign Friday, saying the Massachusetts senator has ``the experience, the background, the knowledge and the strength'' to be president.

Mondale called Kerry's campaign to relay his support. He told The Associated Press in a phone interview that he arrived at his decision after watching Kerry in recent debates and during the Iowa caucus campaign.

``He would be the strongest candidate to win and this is going to be a very tough race for Democrats,'' Mondale said.

394. vonKreedon - 1/23/2004 8:14:32 PM

I wonder if Mondale will have the same effect on Kerry's campaign as Gore had on Dean's. All in all I'm not sure if it's a good thing to receive the endorsement of the man who lost 49 of the 50 states to Reagan in '84.

395. jexster - 1/23/2004 9:43:48 PM

The NyT conservabot David Brooks on PBS agreed with Jim Lehrer - Bush SOTU vanished into thin air....a remarkable bit of nothing, a failure by any measure especially in an election year.

396. jexster - 1/23/2004 9:46:37 PM

Mondale's not news...

Foghorn Leghorn is news because the pundits are going to play SC as Edwards v. Clark - who is strongest in the south....a false matchup but regardless, media truth

397. jexster - 1/23/2004 10:03:07 PM

Is Dean's campaign dead? Maybe. Maybe not. DR doesn't pretend to know the answer to that question.

But DR feels a little surer about something that should be dead: the Dean campaign's theory that an influx of new voters can make up for deficits among the swing voters who typically show in national elections


The Dean New Voter Myth

398. rdbrewer - 1/23/2004 10:56:14 PM

I feel sorry for Dean. It must hurt.

399. vonKreedon - 1/24/2004 12:08:10 AM

Jex - I completely agree about Sen. Leg ... I mean Hollings being much more important than Mondale. Why do you call the Edwards/Clark matchup in the south a false, media driven matchup?

400. vonKreedon - 1/24/2004 12:11:19 AM

RD - A couple of questions:

• If you knew it was pre-ordained that a Dem was going to win the WH in November (bear with me on this heretical hypothetical), which of the candidates would you most prefer/least dread having in the WH?
  
• Of the current Dems, which one would you most like to have Bush run against?
  

401. robertjayb - 1/24/2004 1:45:17 AM

David Brooks outs John Kerry---Man, that Rovian oppo research is really something...

Both John McCain and John Kerry nearly died in Vietnam. Both say that these experiences have made every day that has followed feel like an gift from God, and that they are going to take this extra time to do what is right. The difference is that once McCain latches onto an issue, like campaign finance reform, he sticks with it year after year.

John Kerry doesn't. He will momentarily embrace daring ideas, but if they threaten core constituencies, he often abandons them, returning meekly to the Democratic choir.

402. jayackroyd - 1/24/2004 2:45:55 AM

395

Re sotu: No harm, no foul. Bush is in the three corner offense now.

403. Magoseph - 1/24/2004 7:04:01 AM

National Review


AWOL in the Fight Against George W. Bush
It's all in the Kerry record

As a senator with the responsibility to cast a vote on a variety of contentious issues, Kerry has had many opportunities to square off with the president. Yet an analysis of Kerry's 2003 Senate voting record shows that he did not show up for most of the Senate's confrontations with the White House.

Are the big guns on their way now?

404. jexster - 1/24/2004 9:57:38 AM

Its All About Beating the Bush and the Democratic Party Has NEVER Seen Anything Quite Like It:
Marshall Reports on an Energized and Relaxed John Kerry

405. wonkers2 - 1/24/2004 10:00:08 AM

David Brooks--the Devil with a smile on his face.

406. TheWizardOfWhimsy - 1/24/2004 10:00:22 AM

Republicans try to cut off 'soft money' to activist groups . . .

407. TheWizardOfWhimsy - 1/24/2004 10:10:43 AM

Al-Qaida will do Whatever it Takes to Assure Bush is Re-elected

408. jexster - 1/24/2004 10:22:16 AM

“President Bush is asking Congress for $80 billion dollars to rebuild Iraq. And when you make out that check, remember there are two L’s in Halliburton.” -- David Letterman, Late Show, September 2003

409. jexster - 1/24/2004 10:24:16 AM

“There is such a thirst for gain [among military suppliers]…that it is enough to make one curse their own Species, for possessing so little virtue and patriotism.” -- President George Washington, 1778r

Sounds like an excellent Election Year issue to me.

410. jexster - 1/24/2004 10:25:24 AM

In fact Wiz has some artwork on the subject hehehehehe

Sorry vK , Wizzer, I can't help myself sometimes

411. TheWizardOfWhimsy - 1/24/2004 10:39:49 AM

It's okay, jex—a little rascality can be a virtue—especially if you're up against gangsters.

412. rdbrewer - 1/24/2004 12:47:17 PM

If you knew it was pre-ordained that a Dem was going to win the WH in November (bear with me on this heretical hypothetical), which of the candidates would you most prefer/least dread having in the WH?

I don't like Clark. I think he has character problems. That having been said, I would least dread him in the White House, since he's really a republican.

Of the current Dems, which one would you most like to have Bush run against?

Dean.

413. arkymalarky - 1/24/2004 1:28:00 PM

What character problems?

414. judithathome - 1/24/2004 1:51:53 PM

That he served in the military instead of skipping out, probably.

415. vonKreedon - 1/24/2004 2:27:49 PM

As far as I've been able to tell, the Clark character issue issue seems to originated with some innuendo from Gen. Shelton. The innuedo was then taken at face value by some like Gen. Schwarzkopf. But what so offended Shelton appears to be that Clark jumped the chain of command over the CJC Shelton and SoD Cohen straight to Clinton to demand ground troops in Kosovo.

To me this is a show of character strength, not a liability.

416. vonKreedon - 1/24/2004 2:29:25 PM

RD - Many people are referring to Clark as a Repub, but why? He voted for Nixon and Reagan, but so did many Dems. He voted for Clinton and Gore. His policy positions are to the left of Dean. Do generals have to be Repub by nature?

417. rdbrewer - 1/24/2004 2:39:29 PM

What character problems?

418. TheWizardOfWhimsy - 1/24/2004 2:47:37 PM

I've been validated . . . or is this cartoonist is a thief!

419. wonkers2 - 1/24/2004 2:48:49 PM

I'm not sure Shelton was even in Clark's chain of command. As commander of NATO, didn't he report to NATO members as well as to someone? in the U.S. Government, possibly Clinton or Cohen?? Shelton wasn't the brightest bulb on the tree. And besides he gave Clark glowing efficiency reports. Shelton couldn't carry Clark's lunch bucket.

420. wonkers2 - 1/24/2004 2:50:04 PM

WoW, both!

421. rdbrewer - 1/24/2004 2:57:38 PM

Clark is lying when he said he voted for Gore and Clingon. When presented with his history of support for Republican presidents, including this one, he goes to the one thing that cannot be validated, his voting record.

Plus, his benefactor is this guy:

- The only president ever impeached on grounds of personal malfeasance
- Most number of convictions and guilty pleas by friends and associates*
- Most number of cabinet officials to come under criminal investigation
- Most number of witnesses to flee country or refuse to testify
- Most number of witnesses to die suddenly
- First president sued for sexual harassment.
- First president accused of rape.
- First first lady to come under criminal investigation
- Largest criminal plea agreement in an illegal campaign contribution case
- First president to establish a legal defense fund.
- Greatest amount of illegal campaign contributions
- Greatest amount of illegal campaign contributions from abroad

422. wonkers2 - 1/24/2004 3:00:19 PM

Well, so what? Many neocons were communists earlier in their careers.

423. rdbrewer - 1/24/2004 3:03:59 PM

Clark disobeyed direct orders in Kosavo.

424. wonkers2 - 1/24/2004 3:05:26 PM

What orders? To shut up and not say any more about what was needed to prevail?

425. vonKreedon - 1/24/2004 3:06:15 PM

RD - Your argument seems week if you have to go to "He lied about his voting record." after Clark already volunteered that he voted for Nixon and Reagan

Yeah, Clark seems to be a Clinton protoge, but then no one would argue that Clinton is not a partisan Dem so this seems to argue against Clark being a Repub.

426. vonKreedon - 1/24/2004 3:07:06 PM

Duh ... week=weak

427. TheWizardOfWhimsy - 1/24/2004 3:40:41 PM

Does anyone know what Clark's relationship to Edwards is—if any? I'm starting to sense that as things progress, Clark will become more and more "the spoiler" — if so, then the question becomes: Who will he spoil it for?

I sense Sharpton will spoil it in North Carolina by taking more of the African-American vote and if so, who will be hurt most there?


Strengths:

Kerry: vet support, genuine war hero, political and governmental experience

Dean: Youth support, lots of fight, governmental experience

Edwards: Southern roots, political polish, likeable

Clark: Southern roots, military experience, studious

I still have to go with Kerry and Edwards as a winning ticket and I think Dean and Clark will cancel each other out.

[You must forgive my ramblings, I've had a weak back for about a week back.]

428. arkymalarky - 1/24/2004 3:57:18 PM

The only president ever impeached on grounds of personal malfeasance
- Most number of convictions and guilty pleas by friends and associates*
- Most number of cabinet officials to come under criminal investigation
- Most number of witnesses to flee country or refuse to testify
- Most number of witnesses to die suddenly
- First president sued for sexual harassment.
- First president accused of rape.
- First first lady to come under criminal investigation
- Largest criminal plea agreement in an illegal campaign contribution case
- First president to establish a legal defense fund.
- Greatest amount of illegal campaign contributions
- Greatest amount of illegal campaign contributions from abroad

Shows the extent to which the Republicans will now go to get someone they don't like having won an election. And it still didn't work. Now look at the way they're already starting to smear a distinguished citizen's character. Disgusting. Makes you surprised there's a Democratic candidate at all, much less nine of them.

If Dems played it the same way with Bush the Republicans would be scrounging to find a candidate right now, he's such a pathetically easy target.

429. arkymalarky - 1/24/2004 3:58:20 PM

And what's the stupid asterisk for? The whole list is crap.

430. judithathome - 1/24/2004 4:00:23 PM

Clark is lying when he said he voted for Gore and Clingon.

How do you know this? The RayBans of Truth you wear? I don't think anyone will take you seriously if you go around saying things like this, things that can't be proven.

I know Bush can do that and get away with it but most of us can't.

431. judithathome - 1/24/2004 4:01:46 PM

Most number of convictions and guilty pleas by friends and associates*

*if you take Nixon off the list.

432. rdbrewer - 1/24/2004 4:04:27 PM

In the immortal words of marjoribanks, yap yap yapyapyap yap yap.

I want Clark if a Crat is to win.

Republicans aren't to blame for Clinton's many and varied sins. ("the Clintons'" that is)

You just like Clinton because he's the only one to make it out of Arkansas. You're like the prisoners in The Shawshank Redemption reminiscing about the banker guy who got out. ;)

Remember, he never came back to Arkansas, never had any intention of doing so. I don't respect that.

433. rdbrewer - 1/24/2004 4:06:52 PM

How do you know this? The RayBans of Truth you wear?

Ha! Good one. Just a good guess, my dear. This ambitious, marginally qualified general would say anything for personal gain.

434. judithathome - 1/24/2004 4:15:16 PM

This ambitious, marginally qualified general would say anything for personal gain

At least he's not saying "Trade Sammy Sosa!"

435. arkymalarky - 1/24/2004 4:32:27 PM

Actually, I don't like the Clintons. And that's for state (and some national) political reasons that have nothing to do with the scandal-chasing agenda-driven rich folks who financed Paula Jones. That set a terrible precedent for opposition behavior wrt presidential candidates that will haunt us for a long time, as you can already see with this Clark stuff. I'd rather have Nixon.

And why aren't Democrats playing the same dadgummed way?! They've got the perfect opportunity with what's sitting in the Oval Office and they're so disorganized and scattered as a party it's PATHETIC. It's the same on the state level too. Primo opportunities, not enough unity and direction to take advantage of them.

436. arkymalarky - 1/24/2004 4:33:18 PM

Besides, Clark is from AR, RD.

437. arkymalarky - 1/24/2004 4:35:22 PM

Remember, he never came back to Arkansas, never had any intention of doing so. I don't respect that.

I don't care about that. Why should I? But the presidential library will be open by next November and it's hideous. IMHO.

438. arkymalarky - 1/24/2004 4:36:06 PM

This ambitious, marginally qualified general would say anything for personal gain.

Oooohhhh nooooo. Here we go again.

Substantiate, please. With cited facts.

439. wonkers2 - 1/24/2004 5:17:50 PM

A Bush supporter complaining that Clark "would say anything for political gain?" You've got to be kidding! Just about everything Bush says is politically motivated, even the and's and the's as Mary McCarthy said about Lillian Hellman if memory serves me. Only she said everything she says is a lie even the and's and the's, which also applies pretty well to Bush.

440. robertjayb - 1/24/2004 7:30:14 PM

Arky,

...the presidential library will be open by next


November and it's hideous. IMHO.

From what I saw when we were through there last summer you may be correct.

But it is right next door to the Democrat-Gazette. Paul Greenwood can admire (?) it every day.

441. arkymalarky - 1/24/2004 8:26:49 PM

Greenburg? He's too busy admiring his own pompous prose to look out the window.

442. arkymalarky - 1/24/2004 8:27:08 PM

Now?

443. arkymalarky - 1/24/2004 8:28:18 PM

I swear, reading his editorials is like sludging through a pool of shoulder-high cold oatmeal.

444. rdbrewer - 1/24/2004 9:03:17 PM

I love Greenberg. The guy should be national.

445. arkymalarky - 1/24/2004 9:15:26 PM

Hahaha! You've got to be kidding!

You are kidding, right?

446. rdbrewer - 1/24/2004 9:20:38 PM

I read him all the time.

447. rdbrewer - 1/24/2004 9:22:07 PM

He is good at picking interesting subject material. I get a digest of conservative opinion online with Townhall. When I look at it, I usually scan the subject matter before I see the name. I almost always end up on a Greenberg article.

448. arkymalarky - 1/24/2004 9:29:18 PM

He is good at picking interesting subject material.

Oh, man. That's what he's worst at. Well, right next to writing about it. He calls himself "Inky Wretch," and I call him "Retching Ink."

But howzabout them 2004 elections! Wonder what Greenberg thinks of them.

449. jexster - 1/25/2004 12:25:08 PM

January 24, 2004

Bashing No Child Left Behind: It's Not Just for Democrats Anymore!
The Education President Gets a D in Public Opinion Surveys

• Most Americans (52 percent) believe that the Bush administration has made not much progress (18 percent) or no progress at all (34 percent) in improving public schools; this is up from 47 percent at the beginning of last year (CBS News/New York Times poll, January 12-15, 2004)

• By 58 percentage points (77 percent to 19 percent), the public opposes using the results of tests to withhold federal funds from those schools where students perform poorly (CBS News/New York Times poll, January 12-15, 2004)

• Over four-fifths (81 percent) want schools to be given more time before penalties are assessed if funding promised by the NCLB has not been given to these schools (Greenberg Quinlan Rosner/Tarrance Group/National Education Association, January 4-7, 2004)

• By 60 percent to 38 percent, voters support increased funding, rather than cuts, for schools that are not able to meet federal testing standards (Greenberg Quinlan Rosner/Tarrance Group/National Education Association, January 4-7, 2004)

450. judithathome - 1/25/2004 12:28:11 PM

But Jex, it doesn't matter what the people want; didn't you know that?

451. jexster - 1/25/2004 12:39:08 PM

Grand Ayatollah Sistani's Website

452. jexster - 1/25/2004 12:46:49 PM

OOOPS...

Defender of Democracy???

Election 2004?

Conflict thread.

453. rdbrewer - 1/25/2004 12:49:08 PM

454. jexster - 1/25/2004 1:07:32 PM

FogHorn Leghonr Lets Loose]

At John Kerry’s Town Hall meeting on Friday in Manchester one of his high-profile supporters was retiring Senator Fritz Hollings of South Carolina.

He is one of the final representatives from an era when every Southern senator was written by William Faulkner.

Of course that old-timer-dom sometimes comes with a hint of a price, lapses from high-church political correctness which the audience on Friday was indulgent enough not to notice.

When Hollings was getting underway on the jobs theme he said that half of the furniture in the United States (or some such stat) was now made in China. At just that moment a startling, crashing pop! came out of one of the loudspeakers. Not missing a beat, Hollings said that there must be some “chinamen” over there who didn’t like that.

A few minutes later he was talking about “ole Suskind’s book” and how, as reported in Ron Suskind’s book about Paul O’Neil, the president had blanched at the idea of giving yet another tax cut to the rich, only to have Dick Cheney pipe in to steady his course.

In Hollings' retelling ...

“‘Haven’t we already given the rich a tax cut?’ the president said. And then ole’ Cheney said, ‘No, we want more.' He’s the Jesse Jackson of the Republican Party! He wants it all!’”



I love this guy. Covering the Floor when Fritz was managing a bill or debating a pending question was always a treat.

455. wonkers2 - 1/25/2004 1:09:08 PM

The Ayatollah's website is fascinating. In the Q & A section the first one is "Is anal intercourse permissible if the wife agrees? Answer: "Yes. But strongly discouraged."

[No doubt, if she disagrees she can easily be replaced by one who agrees!]

This bears out wonker's previous observation that fundamentalists tend to share a preoccupation with sex. I wonder why??

I wonder if the Ayatollah could be persuaded to become a motie? He could duke it out with Kuligin or maybe they would become pals??

456. wonkers2 - 1/25/2004 1:10:07 PM

VK, sorry for getting off topic. It was Jexter's fault!!

457. jexster - 1/25/2004 1:13:22 PM

Matters to clARKY...she's an policy advocate in what's have left of US democracy after 3 years of Bush DeLay et al.

458. rdbrewer - 1/25/2004 1:18:39 PM

Wonkers, how about anal discourse?

459. jexster - 1/25/2004 1:39:29 PM

Clark disobeyed direct orders in Kosavo

Lie. Another piece of RNC yellowcake.

From the New Republic "Falsely Accused" published last fall exposing the distortions and half truths that the RNC Conintern propaganda organs (WSJ, Washington Times - the usual sustpects) had dutifuly published accompanied by the usual buckets of frothing self righteous indignation.



But not even victory stopped the Clinton administration's intransigence. After Milosevic began to withdraw from Kosovo in early June, Russian troops began moving from their Bosnian positions toward the strategically important Pristina airfield. Clark worried that the Russians would occupy a portion of Kosovo independently of nato and allow Serb atrocities to continue, as they had in Bosnia. He arranged with Washington to quickly take the airfield under the pretext of coordinating communication and information flow with the arriving Russians.

460. jexster - 1/25/2004 1:40:22 PM

But, after Moscow assured Washington that its troops would not enter Kosovo on their own, Shelton told Clark to stand down. Hours later, however, Russian soldiers began to land in Pristina in violation of their pledge. Clark felt his hand had been forced and ordered three-star British General Michael Jackson to have his troops block Pristina's runways. But Jackson thought the move might spark a firefight with the Russians and refused, famously telling the nato commander, "Sir, I'm not starting World War III for you." Instead, Jackson suggested taking the roads near the field. Clark's command to seize the airfield has been recently cited as evidence of his overaggressiveness (hardly a Clintonian trait). But, although Jackson's quote was memorable, in essence the British general's plan differed with Clark's by only a few stretches of road. And it worked. In the end, nato took the roads, and there was no confrontation. Of course, had the Clinton administration followed Clark's advice to take the airfields in the first place, the incident might well have been avoided altogether.
Clark's tactical and strategic wisdom went unappreciated inside the Beltway. He was rewarded for his win in Kosovo by a terse call from Shelton the following month informing him that his nato assignment would end early. (According to Waging Modern War, Shelton would not even show Clark the courtesy of extending the phone call a few minutes to work out a face-saving exit.) Clinton privately told Clark, "I had nothing to do with it." Indeed, Clinton had very little to do with practically everything about Clark--including Clark's victory--while generals who shared the president's disinterest in the mission stymied a successful commander. Yet Clark has never disparaged Clinton's efforts to take full credit for winning the war--most recently, during the former president's triumphant trip to Kosovo last week. How un-Clintonian.


Polly Wanna Cracker????

461. rdbrewer - 1/25/2004 1:40:52 PM

The source articles on Clark pre-date his candidacy.

462. vonKreedon - 1/25/2004 1:49:52 PM

RD - What source articles, and why would their date be of interest?

463. rdbrewer - 1/25/2004 1:52:44 PM

All you need to know about Clark's mis and malfeasance in the military was written before Clinton told him to run for president.

464. judithathome - 1/25/2004 1:52:50 PM

The source articles on Clark pre-date his candidacy

Are you joking? So does his experience. The source articles on most of these men predate their candidacies...that's the way "source articles" usually work.

465. robertjayb - 1/25/2004 1:54:58 PM

Arizona Republic poll (via dailykos.com)

John Kerry's Iowa win has vaulted him to the front of the Democratic pack in Arizona, but one-third of respondents in a new Arizona Republic Poll are unsure who they'll support in the Feb. 3 presidential primary, suggesting the race is still up for grabs.

466. judithathome - 1/25/2004 1:55:16 PM

So Clark is that big a threat, huh? He has to be labelled a Clinton puppet because he is so much smarter than Bush, it will be obvious in debates and such. Can't wait.

467. rdbrewer - 1/25/2004 1:55:28 PM

In other words, for the reading impaired, by definition, it cannot and does not have to be Republican propaganda. There is better source material--the stuff that pre-dates his candidacy.

468. judithathome - 1/25/2004 1:58:00 PM

There's better stuff on Bush, too, but it seems to be off limits to the prrss. Stuff about HIS military "career" makes Clarke seem like a God.

469. angel-five - 1/25/2004 1:59:25 PM

All you need to know about Clark's mis and malfeasance in the military was written before Clinton told him to run for president.

Oh, for fuck's sake. This place would be a lot more attractive if there weren't so many rank-and-file trench warfare political spin posts like this. Brewer, while being an old friend, knows jack shit about Clark and more than likely won't ever go learn anything more about Clark but because Clark is running as a Democrat, Brewer will disparage Clark.

Anyone who examine's Clark's military record will swiftly find that he was what the military calls a waterwalker and that he had very little to do with the Clintons.

470. robertjayb - 1/25/2004 2:07:30 PM

A surveyUSA poll of California: JOHN KERRY DEFEATS HOWARD DEAN IN A DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY FOR PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED
STATES IN CALIFORNIA TODAY, ACCORDING TO LATEST SURVEYUSA INTERVIEWS WITH 582 CERTAIN
CA PRIMARY VOTERS CONDUCTED AFTER IOWA CAUCUS & STATE OF UNION SPEECH.

* TODAY: IT'S KERRY 31%, DEAN 26%, WESLEY CLARK 14%, JOHN EDWARDS 12%.
* COMPARED TO INTERVIEWS CONDUCTED IMMEDIATELY PRIOR TO IOWA CAUCUSES, KERRY IS UP 18
PTS, DEAN IS DOWN 6 PTS, CLARK IS DOWN 2 PTS, EDWARDS IS UP 5 PTS.

* IN CA GOP PRIMARY FOR U.S. SENATE, BILL JONES GETS 34% TO 9% FOR HOWARD KALOOGIAN, 8%
FOR TONI CASEY & 5% FOR ROSARIO MARIN, ACCORDING TO INTERVIEWS WITH 467 CERTAIN GOP
PRIMARY VOTERS. 43% OF VOTERS CHOOSE "OTHER" OR "UNDECIDED," SO CONTEST IS FLUID.

Sorry 'bout the CAPS. It's from a pdf document and I can't do a thing with it...

471. angel-five - 1/25/2004 2:09:15 PM

Very early on I predicted that there would be two potential threats to Bush in 2004 -- Edwards and Clark. It's shaping up to look that way now. Kerry's the front runner but Kerry isn't going to be able to avoid getting called a 'dirty liberal' any more than Dean was. And Kerry doesn't have the oomph with the public, he isn't telegenic, most people don't even know who he is, he does little to attract voters in the critical battleground states, there are a whole host of reasons why he isn't the best Bush-beater in the pack.

I'll admit to being a bit surprised that Clark hasn't done better, but then again I have to keep reminding myself -- as, apparently, a lot of people ought to -- that the NH primary isn't even over yet and that the NH primary is just the beginning. There is a very long way to go and it's really far too early to start talking about the 'front runner' and that sort of thing.

It will be far and away better for the Democrats if they can pick a front runner early. Bush is running essentially unopposed and he has more money in his coffer than any of them, so he gets to more or less collect all the benefits of being the nominee without paying any of the penalties you see in the primaries. He doesn't have to hug the right, he doesn't get slandered by people on his own side, all his cash is safe for the general election where he'll be able to outspend any opponent of his twice, three times over. He gets to appear, in a word, presidential, tending to the nation's business while the Democrats fight for the right to take him on. The sooner they do that the better.

But they're clearly not ready to do it yet.

472. jexster - 1/25/2004 2:11:00 PM

Does anyone know what Clark's relationship to Edwards is—if any? I'm starting to sense that as things progress, Clark will become more and more "the spoiler" — if so, then the question becomes: Who will he spoil it for?

No relationship whatsoever.

You'd be making a big mistake if as things progress you pay too much attention to the every-hour-on-the-half-hour pundit piffle.

Two weeks ago, they had Kerry's campaign on a respirator and announced that rigor mortis had set in for Edwards.

Of the five candidates only Clark and Dean have nationwide organizations. Theirs are also the only campaigns with a contributor base sufficient to the challenge.

Kerry's campaign has put its all into Iowa and NH. Though he has recently hired an ass-kickin Field Director, Mike Whouley, Kerry has canabalized his operations in other states for Iowa and NH. At last report, Kerry won't even be contesting all Feb 3 primaries.

This is the schedule after NH through March 2:

473. jexster - 1/25/2004 2:11:11 PM

February 3rd, 2004 Arizona Presidential Preference Election (Closed)
Delaware Democratic Presidential Primary (Closed)
Missouri Presidential Primary (Open)
New Mexico Democratic Caucuses
North Dakota Democratic Caucuses
North Dakota Republican Caucuses
Oklahoma Presidential Primary (Closed)
South Carolina Democratic Presidential Preference Primary



February 7th, 2004 Michigan Democratic Presidential Caucuses
Washington Democratic Caucuses



February 8th, 2004 Maine Democratic Caucuses



February 10th, 2004 District of Columbia Republican Presidential Preference Caucuses
Tennessee Presidential Primary (Open)
Virginia Democratic Presidential Primary (Open)



February 14th, 2004 District of Columbia Democratic Caucuses
Nevada Democratic Caucuses



February 17th, 2004 Wisconsin Presidential Primary (Open)



February 24th, 2004 Hawaii Democratic Caucuses
Idaho Democratic Caucuses
Utah Democratic Presidential Primary



March 2nd, 2004 California Presidential Primary (Modified Closed)
Connecticut Presidential Primary (Closed)
Georgia Presidential Preference Primary (Open)
Maryland Presidential Primary (Closed)
Massachusetts Presidential Primary
Minnesota Democratic Caucuses
Minnesota Republican Caucuses
New York Presidential Primary (Closed)
Ohio Presidential Primary (Open)
Rhode Island Presidential Preference Primary
Vermont Presidential Primary (Open)

474. judithathome - 1/25/2004 2:13:17 PM

Looks as though Texas isn't going to bother.

475. rdbrewer - 1/25/2004 2:14:30 PM

Clark is my Democrat, A-5. I don't like him, but he's my Huckleberry. And, yes, I did go back to several articles written about Clark in real time, so to speak. They say the same thing Rebpublican spin doctors are saying about him now. And I would submit that much of the spin one hears is not from Republicans anyway, but from the research and destroy background investigative teams of the Dem nominees.

476. rdbrewer - 1/25/2004 2:16:57 PM

And Kerry doesn't have the oomph with the public, he isn't telegenic, most people don't even know who he is, he does little to attract voters in the critical battleground states, there are a whole host of reasons why he isn't the best Bush-beater in the pack.

Yup. The Yankee is not too appealing to southern Dems, I suspect.

477. judithathome - 1/25/2004 2:19:30 PM

from the research and destroy background investigative teams of the Dem nominees

You seem to be an intelligent man, RD...how can you possibly post this sort of crap? You think the Republicans aren't responsible for most of the negative stuff on most of the Democrat candidates? Have you never heard of Karl Rove? Have you ever paid attention to a Texas race involving Bush before? Does the name McCain mean nothing to you?

478. rdbrewer - 1/25/2004 2:20:53 PM

Judith with her wetted finger to the wind.

479. angel-five - 1/25/2004 2:24:19 PM

I absolutely guarantee you that the bulk of 'articles' about Clark do not mimic Republican spin. The fact that you'd imply so is just more proof as far as I'm concerned that you are unacquainted with the bulk of what's been written about Clark.

And the attacks on Clark from the Democratic Party aren't at all like the ones coming from your quarter. The Democrats who slander Clark say, in essence, that he's a crypto-Republican. The Republicans who slander Clark say, in essence, that he's a slimeball. While people may be forgiven for confusing the two, the tone and characterizations are actually somewhat different.

If you want to read something relatively well done and unbiased about Clark I'd suggest picking up War in a Time of Peace by Halberstam. A book which is, I might add, extremely critical of Clinton, less so George HW Bush. But its assessment of Clark is even and just, warts and all, and it will get you much farther than a handful of conservative links.

480. rdbrewer - 1/25/2004 2:28:33 PM

As I mentioned a month ago, I suspect that Clark is meant to be Hillary's running partner at some point. His purpose would be to smooth over Hillary's weak points. It's a brilliant strategy.

481. rdbrewer - 1/25/2004 2:29:56 PM

The Democrats who slander Clark say, in essence, that he's a crypto-Republican. The Republicans who slander Clark say, in essence, that he's a slimeball. While people may be forgiven for confusing the two, the tone and characterizations are actually somewhat different.

You have a good point there, A-5.

482. rdbrewer - 1/25/2004 2:34:16 PM

But if he gets the nod, I do hope beyond hope that he does not choose Hillary as a running mate.

483. judithathome - 1/25/2004 2:34:41 PM

I love to hear you people spin your wheels about Hillary. It is just ludicrous but it reminds me of how out of touch most of you are with reality.

484. rdbrewer - 1/25/2004 2:36:30 PM

Ha!

485. robertjayb - 1/25/2004 2:44:12 PM

The Texas primary is March 9.

486. angel-five - 1/25/2004 2:50:31 PM

Listen to Judith, RD.

Hillary Clinton does not poll well on the national level. Anyone you are reading that is worried about HRC and a stealthy presidential campaign is an idiot and you should start ignoring them. They aren't presenting a viable case, what they are doing is whipping up the Republican base, because telling the Republicans that HRC is coming for them is a great way to motivate them, because Republicans by and large hate HRC with burning passion. Her personal numbers just aren't good across America. They have gotten better since she stopped being in the news every day but they are still not good.


There is a goddamned reason why HRC went to New York to run for Senate, and these people who obsess about the Clintons and nefarious machinations within the DNC and keynote speeches would do better to think about that reason. They don't want to, though, as I said. What they do amounts to provocateur politics and rank agitprop, and HRC is the perfect stalking horse for them.

487. rdbrewer - 1/25/2004 3:01:49 PM

Clearly, the uber-ambitious nihilist is not content to be a stalking horse. I don't know enough about her polling across the board, but I was under the impression that she polls well with women. If men split their vote evenly as they did with Bill, women can elect Hillary. Clark's purpose would be to gather more of the male vote, to ensure at least a split vote.

It's speculative, granted, but it hangs together. We'll see.

488. angel-five - 1/25/2004 3:05:27 PM

RD, that is crap held together by scotch tape and spit. Tell you what, go acquaint yourself with the polling data which right now you only have an idea about. I'm pretty confident that if you do that your questions will answer themselves, especially about women liking HRC and whether or not men would split evenly on her.

See, this is what I'm talking about. You're under the impression. You don't know. You have been victimized by political spin. Go find the data and as they say the truth will set you free.

489. judithathome - 1/25/2004 3:07:07 PM

but I was under the impression that she polls well with women.

That is your first mistake.

Hillary Clinton will never run for office because she knows women and she knows women will never elect her. Period. Now find something else to worry about because it will never, ever happen.

490. rdbrewer - 1/25/2004 3:07:19 PM

Bad mood, A-5?

491. angel-five - 1/25/2004 3:08:14 PM

Or you could, you know, not go acquaint yourself with the information personally in an unbiased way. You could continue spinning spin. It'd be easier for you too.

492. judithathome - 1/25/2004 3:08:51 PM

No, he's not in a bad mood; he's trying to tell you the truth but you refuse to see it.

493. rdbrewer - 1/25/2004 3:08:52 PM

A-5, that is my speculation. It's not the spin of anyone. It's my guess for 2008 primarily and for 2004 if things fall into place.

494. angel-five - 1/25/2004 3:11:05 PM

I'm actually in a great mood, RD, you are just fucking up and I'm content to show you how. :)

But the point to make here is that I wouldn't have to be in a bad mood to say anything I've said here. It is true that you don't know the polling data, it is true that you haven't read a representative sample of the public opinion on Clark, it is true that HRC is less of a threat in 2004 than Santa Claus. These are all salient and viable criticisms of what you've said today, and even if someone were to say them while angered it would not diminish their value one whit.

495. angel-five - 1/25/2004 3:12:06 PM

A-5, that is my speculation. It's not the spin of anyone. It's my guess for 2008 primarily and for 2004 if things fall into place.

What, the notion that Hillary Clinton polls strongly among women and that men might split on her sprang from your mind fully grown and armed, like Athena?

Come on, Brewer.

496. rdbrewer - 1/25/2004 3:18:02 PM

It is true that you don't know the polling data

I intend to. What polling data do you rely upon?

it is true that you haven't read a representative sample of the public opinion on Clark,

Some idle speculation is okay, depending upon whether it's yours, right?

it is true that HRC is less of a threat in 2004 than Santa Claus

That's why I said "if things fall into place."

497. vonKreedon - 1/25/2004 3:19:27 PM

Rd, consider this: Clark/Clinton '08 with Clark running as the incumbent. Then HRC can run as the sitting VP in '12. Would the Repubs heads all synchronisticly explode?

498. rdbrewer - 1/25/2004 3:19:49 PM

That's my original analysis, A-5, and I said it was speculative. The difference between my intuition and yours is that I understand its limits.

499. angel-five - 1/25/2004 3:26:06 PM

This might help you out. For people who don't like clicking links, it's a New York poll on HRC.

ABC analysis of HRC's chances in Presidential politics


Excerpt:

...Most Americans don't want her ever to run for president, and her presence on the national stage is a deeply polarizing one.

While 44 percent of Americans express a favorable opinion of Mrs. Clinton, 48 percent view her unfavorably — an unusually high negative rating, and an unusually strong one. More than twice as many people view her "strongly" negatively as strongly positively. And she's no more popular among women than among men....

Mrs. Clinton's popularity largely is limited to Democrats, and is countered, and exceeded in intensity, by her unpopularity among Republicans. Sixty percent of all Republicans, and 71 percent of conservative Republicans, view her strongly unfavorably. By contrast, just 32 percent of all Democrats, and 42 percent of liberal Democrats, view her strongly favorably. (Moreover, conservative Republicans outnumber liberal Democrats by 2-1.)...


In a stark example of the problems Mrs. Clinton would face as a national candidate, only about four in 10 Americans say she should ever run for president, while a majority, 53 percent, says she never should run. Again, there's no substantive difference between women and men...

Even among the party core, enthusiasm for a Clinton candidacy is hardly overwhelming — 60 percent of liberals, 58 percent of Democrats and 52 percent of nonwhites would like to see her run. Again they're outmatched on the other side: A Clinton candidacy is opposed by 56 percent of whites, 60 percent of older Americans, 70 percent of conservatives and 76 percent of Republicans.

500. angel-five - 1/25/2004 3:29:46 PM

Some idle speculation is okay, depending upon whether it's yours, right?

That's my original analysis, A-5, and I said it was speculative. The difference between my intuition and yours is that I understand its limits.

I well understand the difference between my intuition and yours, but it is not intuition to point out that you are wrong in reference to what you have said. That is arithmetical fact. The bulk of the press on Clark has not been as you characterized it.

501. rdbrewer - 1/25/2004 3:40:09 PM

I've scanned several articles with polls, without an eye to reliability, and Hillary polls well with Democrats. Her negatives are high as in A-5's poll. It sounds like she could easily get the Dem nomination at least.

I'm going to look for more after I go for a walk. Later.

502. judithathome - 1/25/2004 3:49:16 PM

It sounds like she could easily get the Dem nomination at least.

You got that from where? Your head again? Why would they choose someone who polls so very negatively with non-Democrats? They would need cross-over votes and that wouldn't happen with HRC...of course, I guess you believe the Dems to be stupid ennough to do this but I don't "intuit" that they are.

503. Magoseph - 1/25/2004 4:01:07 PM

I probably said all that before and I will say it again. Angel5 is correct, Hillary is a non-issue. To me, the most important statistical factor in this election will be, as in the last election, the percentage of male votes the Republicans get and the percentage of female votes the Democrats get. I don't recall the exact figures but the Republicans got a male advantage about equivalent to the Democratic female advantage What is absolutely necessary to oust Bush is for the Democratic candidate to increase his percentage of the male vote and hold his plurality with the women.
It is clear to me that Dean can't possibly attract the male-macho group that is the Bush base. The voters sense this and that is the underline basis for his declining popularity. Kerry is an interesting figure in respect to this point. He appeals to women because he represents stability and firmness without the arrogance that Bush exudes. In addition, he is gaining rapidly with men, especially veterans and most importantly with veterans across the whole spectrum from WWII, Korea, and Vietnam, not to mention those affected adversely by his inept handling of the present catastrophes in Iraq and Afghanistan. They are not absolutely certain what Bush is but they know that Kerry is a soldier.
Clark also presents a real problem for Bush in every respect mentioned above. It is really a very simple equation--Bush must hold a significant premium of male voters to win the election. If he does not, he loses.
The question then becomes who can do the best in respect to holding the women and cutting down the male plurality.

Kerry or Clark? That is the choice the Democrats have and no other is more important.

504. arkymalarky - 1/25/2004 4:08:26 PM

Y'know, Clark and Clinton are both Arkansans and both Rhodes Scholars. Coincidence? I think not. Clark has Clinton's cloned brain implanted in his skull. Or was that vice versa?

What I want to know is how Republicans have so deftly managed to take "Libertarians" and point them to a pile of crap labeled "Clinton Stuff" time and again, while they steal away the very things Libertarians claim to value most right out from under their noses as they scarf up their votes? If Libertarians really want to strike out with their own platform they need to run a Libertarian candidate and quit being such foils for the Corporate Right.

505. judithathome - 1/25/2004 4:08:55 PM

I really don't think it will matter who runs as a Democrat. The Bush machine with its unlimited funds and amoral attack team will eat them like shredded wheat and poop out a victory.

506. arkymalarky - 1/25/2004 4:13:47 PM

RD, that is crap held together by scotch tape and spit.

I have got to save this for later.

507. Magoseph - 1/25/2004 4:14:46 PM

We can't give up, Juds. The American people are better than their government, aren't they?

508. arkymalarky - 1/25/2004 4:16:34 PM

A-5, that is my speculation. It's not the spin of anyone. It's my guess for 2008 primarily and for 2004 if things fall into place.

What's this about Libertarians and independent thought? No group mentality there, nosir. I just can't understand why I've heard this same ridiculous theory floated for at least months now by no telling how many Libertarians and Wingnut Republicans in rabid anticipation of what the Clintons have up their sleeves for 2004.

509. wonkers2 - 1/25/2004 4:23:58 PM

CNN: Kerry leads Bush 49 to 46 in straw poll.

510. arkymalarky - 1/25/2004 4:27:30 PM

Republicans had best worry about hanging onto their base, because it's in grave danger, especially if Clark is nominated. They know that, too, but dragging out the same old Clinton bogie man isn't going to work on any but the stupidest and most hardline of people and that won't get them 2004, even with our current Supreme Court.

511. judithathome - 1/25/2004 4:29:04 PM

Mags, it's not a question of giving up. And I don't believe Amreicans are even part the process of selecting the government any more. Oh, they make a good stab at it but it is really Corporate America which runs the show.

And this isn't just Bush allowing them to do so; it's been this way for years.

512. arkymalarky - 1/25/2004 4:32:05 PM

I'm not so concerned about whether a Democrat can win against Bush if the Democratic Party would get its act together (and even if it doesn't), but I am concerned about whether a Democratic winner will spend his term(s) as president the way Clinton did. America shouldn't stand for it. If Democrats chose to play it the same way and had the numbers in Congress Bush would have been toast by now and we'd have three impeached presidents in our history books.

513. judithathome - 1/25/2004 4:33:35 PM

Kerry leads Bush 49 to 46 in straw poll.

Big bet here...count on "the blonde who was seen leaving kerry's apartment early in th morning while his wife was out of town" story hitting the press this coming week.

514. Magoseph - 1/25/2004 5:18:40 PM

...count on "the blonde who was seen leaving kerry's apartment early in th morning while his wife was out of town" story hitting the press this coming week.

That's a good way to link his behavior with women to Clinton's. I think I was right on track post # 503.

515. wonkers2 - 1/25/2004 5:52:56 PM

IMO Kerry has a handful, so to speak, with Teresa. The blonde story would not be very credible. Of all the candidates, I would suspect Edwards of having a roving eye. But who knows?

516. robertjayb - 1/25/2004 6:11:45 PM

But who knows?

Karl Rove, that's who...

If there is the slightest hint or suggestion of hanky-panky by any dem candidate take it to the bank that Rove is on it like a tumble-bug on a fresh cow-patty.

Doesn't have to be a grain of truth to it of course.

Just ask Ann Richards...

517. wonkers2 - 1/25/2004 6:18:28 PM

Yeah, Rove did McCain in in one of the Carolina primaries with phony push polling. The GOP has a long history of dirty politics. Starting in my memory with Nixon's trashing of Helen Gahagan Douglas in his Senate campaign.

518. wonkers2 - 1/25/2004 6:21:09 PM

Then along came Lee Atwater who achieved new lows in dirty tricks for various GOP candidates including Bush I.

519. arkymalarky - 1/25/2004 6:28:02 PM

I blame the media for a lot of that, especially starting from around the Reagan Era.

520. wonkers2 - 1/25/2004 6:32:29 PM

True, the TV channels have been trashing Dean incessantly.

521. TheWizardOfWhimsy - 1/25/2004 6:39:57 PM

Cnn/Wolf on Late edition, played the tape incessantly for practically every guest they interviewed today to "get their thoughts." . . . and to destroy the onetime front runner. I wonder how they're planning Kerry's demise?

522. angel-five - 1/25/2004 6:41:53 PM

It isn't just TV. The Times pretty much ran him through yesterday.

523. TheWizardOfWhimsy - 1/25/2004 7:04:24 PM

The intense magnifying glass of the media has become so twisted (by the profits of sensationalism) that the distortions are now considered the reality—especially by people who only spend a few minutes reading or watching the news.

524. vonKreedon - 1/25/2004 7:33:49 PM

Arky mentioned that the Repubs could pull out all the Clinton connection smear attempts they wanted on Clark and it would not matter. I think that it is even better, for Clark and Dems, than that.

The Repubs soooo despise the Clintons that they cannot fathom but that any connection they can make stick will stink. But the American electorate loves Bill. They remember very good times with Bill. They would have elected him a third time if the Constitution allowed it.

Please, do make Clark look like a Clinton with spine, I beg you.

525. vonKreedon - 1/25/2004 7:34:52 PM

I blame the morphing of cable news into expensive reality TV for the overhyping of "I Have a Scream".

526. arkymalarky - 1/25/2004 7:58:14 PM

24/7 news coverage magnifies every pimple, too, and shows it over and over. But not with Bush. It's disgusting, really, how skewed it all is.

And with local news it's just the opposite--five minutes of shallow overview if even that much.

527. Hobbes - 1/25/2004 8:31:05 PM

Then along came Lee Atwater who achieved new lows in dirty tricks for various GOP candidates including Bush I.

Let's not forget that it wasn't Bush/Atwater who first used Willie Horton against Dukakis. It was Al Gore who dug it up and used it in the Democratic primary debates. I just hope the Democratic infighting of this current primary season hasn't given Karl Rove any ideas.

528. rdbrewer - 1/25/2004 8:35:19 PM

True, the TV channels have been trashing Dean incessantly.

Even before his unfortunate screech they were piling on Dean. Dean repudiated Terry McAuliffe and the Clinton wing of the party. And he didn't have a chance against Bush. He had to be stopped.

529. judithathome - 1/26/2004 7:38:52 AM

I just hope the Democratic infighting of this current primary season hasn't given Karl Rove any ideas.

Hobbes, welcome to the Mote (I am Judith Spencer at RI) but you can't seriously think there is ANY dirty trick that Karl Rove doesn't already know...and use...and more than likely, invented.

530. judithathome - 1/26/2004 7:47:34 AM

And he didn't have a chance against Bush. He had to be stopped.

Ha! He might have had a huge chance against Bush. People are just stirring to that anger he atarted to tap into and the closer it gets to election day, the more angry they (should) get. So he had to be stopped.

You can't honestly think that Mars BS your fearless leader proposed last week was a.) serious and b.) a good idea if he were serious. All that money to send people on a one way ticket to Mars? Get real. Even Andy Rooney realizes the gravity on Mars would never allow a return trip.

Of course, once people cop to the idea that this Mars bushwa is about as serious as Newt offering term limits in the Contract With America, Bush will say he was planning penal colonies on Mars so we can rid the country of crime once and for all.

531. TheWizardOfWhimsy - 1/26/2004 9:22:29 AM

532. concerned - 1/26/2004 11:04:19 AM

Newsmax Endorses Joseph Lieberman

533. concerned - 1/26/2004 11:08:02 AM

The only scenario in which I would see Hilliary possibly playing an official role in 2004 presidential politics is if Weasley successfully woos her as the 'bitter' half of his presidential ticket in order to close his huge gender gap.

534. judithathome - 1/26/2004 11:18:02 AM

The only way she will ever be in the White House again will be if the Democrat nominee divorces his current wife, she divorces Bil, and the DemNom marries Hillary.

Just as likely as her ever being nominated, running, or winning.

535. concerned - 1/26/2004 11:21:35 AM

JAH -

I think your scenario is even more improbable than mine, but I wouldn't quite rule out a flagging Clark campaign at least exploring this avenue.

536. judithathome - 1/26/2004 11:23:50 AM

Ha! There's only so a man can be expected to do for his country!

537. robertjayb - 1/26/2004 11:25:21 AM

Poll gives Kerry national lead...

January 26, 2004, 10:19 AM EST

HAMDEN, Conn. (AP) _ John Kerry holds a 13 percentage point lead over Howard Dean in the race for the Democratic presidential nomination, according to a national poll released Monday.

The Quinnipiac University poll reflects how Kerry parlayed his win in the Iowa caucuses into front-runner status in the national race. New Hampshire holds its primary Tuesday.

Thirty percent of registered Democrats responding to the poll said they supported the Massachusetts senator, compared to 17 percent who supported Dean.

The same poll in December showed Dean with the support of 22 percent of Democrats and Kerry with 8 percent.

Sen. John Edwards and retired Gen. Wesley Clark each received the support of 14 percent of Democrats surveyed in Monday's poll.

Connecticut Sen. Joe Lieberman (8 percent), Al Sharpton (4 percent) and Ohio Rep. Dennis Kucinich (1 percent) polled in single digits.

The telephone poll of 406 registered Democrats was taken from January 21-25 and has a sampling error margin of about 5 percentage points.

538. jexster - 1/26/2004 12:00:42 PM

Finally an unapologetic, aggressive, credible Iraq War position from Kerry:



"Dick Cheney and others in the administration misled the American people with respect to the true status of the weapons of mass destruction in Iraq. The administration has to be held accountable for that," he said.

"I voted for a process by which war would be the last resort. And those are the conditions that the president himself established. He said, 'I will build a coalition. We're going to use the United Nations, we will inspect, and I will go to war as a last resort.' He did not do any of those things. So yes, I believe we should have stood up to Saddam Hussein, I thought it was important for our nation's security. There was a right way to do it, and there was a wrong way to do it. The president chose the wrong way."

Credible if you trust Bush as far as you can spit and don't read the War Resolution very carefully..

539. jexster - 1/26/2004 12:16:46 PM

Newsmax Endorses Joseph Lieberman



Parroting RNC Slander he picked up from Drudge
Union Leader Endorsement
Now Newsmax???

Lieberman was DOAnnouncement....we've not seen political butchery like this since...

540. jexster - 1/26/2004 12:25:51 PM

I come not to praise Joe Lieberman but to defile his corpse...

"Rex Tremendae Chorus" Requiem - Mozart

"King of majesty tremendous,
Who dost free salvation send us,
Fount of pity, then befriend us."

541. vonKreedon - 1/26/2004 12:51:38 PM

Jex - Are you comparing Lieberman to Mussolini? Newsmax to Italian partisans? I'm afraid I do not understand the import of the picture of Mussolini's corpse.

542. Absensia - 1/26/2004 3:53:21 PM

I really can't understand why there's been such an uproar about Dean's "screech." I remember similar speeches in the past. Some of Hubert Humphrey's speeches were similar and no one would censor Jesse Jackson or MLK Jr. for speaking like that. I'm not a Dean fan, but at the time I saw his speech, it struck me as just another "livening up" campaign speech. IMO it never would have been a big deal if the media hadn't aired it a zillion times and acted as if he had commited sodomy with an ostrich.

543. judithathome - 1/26/2004 4:04:12 PM

Well said, Abs. The media jumped on this and just crucified him.

If Bush had done something similar, they would have chuckled and mentioned his cheerleder background and commented on how great he was with crowds.

544. concerned - 1/26/2004 4:07:25 PM

Absensia -

Have you heard the Ozzie Osbourne 'Crazy Train' mixdown of Dean's howl & Iowa 'concession' speech? Talk about funny! Truthfully, I was taking it easy on this petard in online fora until then, but with something like this, perhaps it's best all around, not least for Dean's longer term chances, to let everybody make their humorous sallies & move on to the next thing.

545. concerned - 1/26/2004 4:13:59 PM

Re. 541 -

jexster's afraid that Lieberman might part the cotton on the LW Plantation and lead his people away from mind-numbing electoral conformity with the extremists.

546. Absensia - 1/26/2004 8:04:14 PM

Concerned,

Talking about humorous but sad campaign speeches,
SoU as Campaign Speech

547. Hobbes - 1/26/2004 9:45:38 PM

But Lieberman has Joe-mentum...

Hobbes, welcome to the Mote (I am Judith Spencer at RI) but you can't seriously think there is ANY dirty trick that Karl Rove doesn't already know...and use...and more than likely, invented.

Judith, hello and thanks. You're probably right. The push polling in South Carolina with McCain was probably one of the most dirty things I have heard in politics. I hope Lee is saving Karl a seat in hell.

548. angel-five - 1/26/2004 10:28:31 PM

The thing is that Karl Rove is self destructive to a campaign. The Bush people discovered that partway through 2000 and they will reacquaint themselves with it this year. Everyone *knows* what a bastard Rove is.

Look, people gobble up negative ads but they also like to disdain negative politics and Rove is the perfect fall guy for them to balance their moral checkbooks with.

I wonder if they'll call James Baker in for this one.

549. angel-five - 1/26/2004 10:31:04 PM

Dean got taken out to lunch because people realized a) Bush is beatable as all hell in 2004 and b) Dean wasn't going to beat him. Lots of people were worried about him -- on the one hand no one wanted to be the first guy to take the carpet out from underneath the Democrat leading the polls, but on the other hand people were very worried about him on the ticket. So you see the wolfpack bounce his ass after Iowa -- more balancing of the checkbook.

550. concerned - 1/27/2004 12:44:22 AM

Why wait for Rove to make an appearance? Dean says he's victim of Kerry Dirty Tricks

Dean spokesman Jay Carson said Monday that New Hampshire supporters of Dean had received phony campaign material by fax and e-mail that distorted Dean's positions. In Michigan, the campaign blamed Kerry allies for a flyer it said had lied and distorted Dean's stands on environment, energy, gun rights, the death penalty and higher education.

551. jayackroyd - 1/27/2004 2:19:50 AM

549

Bush is beatable as all hell

I have four words: two hundred million dollars.

If the freakin' dem establishment is willing to engage in the tactics you're saying they were willing to engage in, then it's the same deal in the general, but with Bush's money trumping everything they've got. Look, I like Dean, and I don't like Kerry or Clark (for different reasons).

But if you're saying that all that oppo research against Dean, and the blowing up of a silly rally speech was orchestated, then, brother, you ain't seen an orchestration.

I still say Edwards is the candidate that the republicans should most fear,and that the Dean premsture ejaculation has served Edwards enormously well.

552. Magoseph - 1/27/2004 8:44:33 AM

Imus has withdraw his support from Bush and endorsed Kerry. I consider this to be of extreme importance because I believe that Imus is a symbol of a significant segment of what I would describe as the man's man support of George Bush. As I recall when Imus threw his support to Clinton, it proved to be an indication that the group I refer to was moving towards Clinton and that proved to be the case. If this same group is now moving towards Kerry, Bush has very little chance to win the election. All Kerry has to do to win is to hold the female percentage that Gore carried and make a minor in-road on the male advantage that Bush maintained in the last election. If he does, he wins big.

553. judithathome - 1/27/2004 9:01:47 AM

I hate living in a world that relies on Don Imus for moral support.

554. rdbrewer - 1/27/2004 9:15:03 AM

Peggy Noonan has an interesting take on Clark.

Which gets me to Wesley Clark. Forgive me, but he seems to be another first class strange-o. He has been called arrogant and opportunistic. That's par for the course in politics, but what worries me about Gen. Clark is that it seems to be true to greater degrees than is usual.

. . .
Mr. Dole, a little emollient, then a little mischievous, told Gen. Clark [on Larry King Live], first, that "somebody [had] to lose" in Iowa and, next, that "politically you just became a colonel instead of a general." This little barb set off a pompous harrumph of a retort: "Well, I don't think that's at all--Senator, with all due respect, he's [Kerry's] a lieutenant and I'm a general. You got to get your facts on this. He was a lieutenant in Vietnam. I've done all of the big leadership." The exchange ended with Gen. Clark telling Mr. Dole that he, Wesley, had "been in a lot of tough positions in my life, one of them was leading the operation in Kosovo . . ."

"I won a war"? "I pitch a 95-mile-an-hour fastball"? "I've done all of the big leadership"? "I've been in a lot of tough positions"?

Oh no. Another one.

Gen. Clark gives off the vibrations of a man who has no real beliefs save one: Wes Clark should be president. The rest--the actual meaning of his candidacy--he seems to be making up as he goes along. It seems a candidacy void of purpose beyond meeting the candidate's hunger.


And don't forget the time machine.

555. vonKreedon - 1/27/2004 9:15:58 AM

Time machine?

556. judithathome - 1/27/2004 9:31:19 AM

I won a war"? "I pitch a 95-mile-an-hour fastball"? "I've done all of the big leadership"? "I've been in a lot of tough positions"?

Yes, Pegs, far better to hear from a candidate "I never made it to a war because I was too busy", "I've never had a business succeed in my life, even a baseball team and an oil company bought with daddy's money", "I've been a drunk and not even known what positions I was in, tough or otherwise."

Peggy Noonan wouldn't recognize a real man if she fell prone on top of his body.

557. judithathome - 1/27/2004 9:34:35 AM

The rest--the actual meaning of his candidacy--he seems to be making up as he goes along. It seems a candidacy void of purpose beyond meeting the candidate's hunger.

No child left behind; colonize Mars; deficits are good for the country; Saddam tried to kill my dad....yeah, I can see how she might recognize similarities from her hero's campaign where they really don't exist in Clark's.

558. Magoseph - 1/27/2004 9:37:34 AM

I hate living in a world that relies on Don Imus for moral support.

I am certainly not one of those who rely on any endorsement or moral support from Imus or for that matter from anyone else. However, it is a fact that Imus is a useful barometer of a crucial segment of the Bush base. In that sense, it becomes a tool for those who would remove this administration from power.

559. robertjayb - 1/27/2004 10:48:18 AM

Clark leads early voting...(Salon)

The first votes were cast in ritual fashion shortly after midnight in the northern hamlets of Dixville Notch and Hart's Location. Clark had 14, Kerry eight, John Edwards and Howard Dean four each, and Joe Lieberman one.

560. jexster - 1/27/2004 11:02:09 AM

Mysterious Genius of Field Ops Michael Whouley Works Magic for Kerry in Iowa

This guy is crucial..Well Whouley and his staff resources because in order to amke out here either first or second in delegates, Kerry's February primaries campaign field ops will be smoke and mirrors. . Whouley is a master apparently at just that rapid deployment of resources at the point of attack and keen eye for the most profitable deployment...the New Republic article was even more glowing than the Post's..

That field directors leave me star struck isn't too obvious is it? But they sure do....skills I lack I guess - focused, detail oriented, with a keen and quick mind for managing a what can only be described as organizational chaos - thin staff overworked underpaid mobilizing unpaid volunteers they just met..yikes

Newsom's Field Director is the best in NoCali very good not that caliber but quite impressive...

Alex laid something on his staff one day while I hanging and I gushed.."God damn Alex if you aren't the most anal mutha fucka in town you're the second most!"

561. jexster - 1/27/2004 11:04:23 AM

MANCHESTER, N.H. Jan. 26 -- Back in the bad old days of Sen. John F. Kerry's presidential campaign -- about two months ago, that is -- his newly appointed campaign manager, Mary Beth Cahill, put out a distress call to an old friend from Boston. Reluctantly, Michael Whouley answered it.

562. jexster - 1/27/2004 11:25:12 AM

Peggy Noonan!!!

Guy runs for President of the US who has never run for public office and as far as I know with 38 years in the army never even been closely involved in any political campaign..Clark enters a race where 5 equally viable experience campaign competitors enjoyed a 9 month head start.

In less than 3 months, Clark puts together a nationwide campaign organization second only to Dean's (18 month head start??), produces scads of Issue Papers, including a breathtakingly effective and well thought out tax cut plan and an education paper both of which, speaking in a technical not a political orientation sense, ideological sense, are as fine an example of campaign policy work as I have ever seen.

So what the fuck is Noonan talking about anyway? What are these "vibrations"? Where's the beef? Where's the bun?



Source for Noonan Vibrations


(BTW, I rate Bush's 1999 policy package as a whole four stars...just like the one's on the General's shoulders)

563. jexster - 1/27/2004 11:42:51 AM

I am doing eblocks for Clark..

Rd Thanks for the Noonan sreed, opens the door for the opening paragraphs of my South Carolina rural contacts..

564. jexster - 1/27/2004 11:43:02 AM

Dear Ms. Allen:

I am a volunteer with General Wesley Clark’s campaign for the Democratic Party’s nomination for President. I am a life long Democrat, a native Louisianan, and I am writing to urge you to vote for General Clark in the South Carolina Primary on February 3rd. I also wish to share a few of the reasons why I am convinced, that, among all the fine candidates whose names will appear on your ballot, Wesley Clark is best qualified to restore competence, integrity, and sound purpose to our government in Washington.

This year’s presidential election is the most important presidential election of my 50-year lifetime. More than at any time in my life, this election will be about leadership, the unprincipled failed leadership of George Bush and about whether the Democratic Party puts forward the very best leadership it can muster for Bush's defeat.

The one quality that sets General Clark apart from his fellow candidates is his leadership ability. Throughout his distinguished 38-year career of public service to this country, Clark has demonstrated an uncommon talent to lead and empower ordinary folks to do extraordinary things. In 1962, he entered the U.S. Army and entered West Point where he finished first in his class and won a Rhodes Scholarship for graduate studies at Oxford. After receiving his Master’s Degree in Economics, Politics and Philosophy, Clark fought in Vietnam and was awarded the Silver Star for bravery in combat. Widely acclaimed by superiors and peers alike for his remarkable intellect and inspired leadership, Clark rose swiftly through the ranks and held posts all over the world including, Commanding General of the National Battle Command Training Center; U.S. Armed Forces’ Southern Command; Commanding General, 1st Calvary Division, and Supreme Allied Commander, Europe.

565. jexster - 1/27/2004 11:44:44 AM

delete "and entered" - "at"

566. TheWizardOfWhimsy - 1/27/2004 11:59:04 AM

567. TheWizardOfWhimsy - 1/27/2004 12:00:10 PM

568. jexster - 1/27/2004 12:11:06 PM

Clark's got guts and guts is good enuf...

HARTMAN
Private Joker, do
you believe in the Virgin
Mary?


JOKER
Sir, no,
sir!


HARTMAN throws down the garbage can with a loud bang.


HARTMAN
Private Joker, I don't believe I heard you correctly!


JOKER
Sir, the private said "No, sir," sir!

HARTMAN


Why, you little maggot! You make me want to vomit!

HARTMAN slaps
JOKER, hard, across the cheek.


HARTMAN
You goddam
communist heathen, you had best
sound off that you love the Virgin Mary . . . or I'm gonna stomp your guts out! Now you do love the Virgin Mary, don't you?!

JOKER
Sir, negative,
sir!!


HARTMAN
Private Joker, are you trying to offend me?!

JOKER
Sir, negative, sir!!! Sir, the private believes that any answer he gives will be wrong! And the Senior Drill Instructor will beat him harder if he reverses himself, sir!


HARTMAN
Who's your squad leader, scumbag?

JOKER


Sir, the private's squad leader is Private Snowball, sir!!!


HARTMAN
Private Snowball!


SNOWBALL double-times up to HARTMAN.


SNOWBALL
Sir, Private Snowball reporting as ordered, sir!


HARTMAN
Private Snowball, you're fired! Private Joker is

promoted to squad leader!


SNOWBALL
Sir, aye-aye, sir!



HARTMAN
Private Pyle, from now on
Private Joker is
your new squad leader, and you will bunk with him! He'll teach you everything. He'll teach you how to pee.



HARTMAN
Private Joker is silly
and he's ignorant, but


he's got guts, and guts is enough. Now, you

ladies carry on.

569. jayackroyd - 1/27/2004 12:16:11 PM

Full Metal Jacket?

570. jexster - 1/27/2004 4:18:05 PM

Oh yeah...Gunny hartman - a fount of wisdom;

Gunny & The Crawford Cowboy

HARTMAN

Where in hell are you from anyway, Private?


COWBOY

Sir, Texas, sir!

HARTMAN
Holy dogshit! Texas! Only
steers and queers
come from Texas, Private Cowboy! And you

don't look much like a steer to me, so that
kinda narrows it down!
Do you suck dicks!

COWBOY
Sir, no, sir!


HARTMAN
Are you a peter-puffer?

COWBOY
Sir, no,
sir!

HARTMAN
I'll bet you're the kind of guy that would
fuck a person in the ass and not even have the
goddam common courtesy to give him a reach-
around! I'll be watching you!

571. jexster - 1/27/2004 4:22:30 PM

Interesting fast look at 2/3 on CNN...

Polls in all states show Clark second - except OK where he leads and SC where the pack is bunched tight with Edwards leading ..he's only one that the the MOE

Clark will not seriously contest SC because with Gephardt out, Edwards looks better, but not that much better and relatedly because Missouri is now in play and Clark is well positioned there as also Arizona

Everyone but Loser Lieberman (may he rot in peace) is ahead in one state...Kerry Missou with Clark close...

572. jexster - 1/27/2004 4:53:40 PM

ARG Tracking


AZ OK SC
Clark 21% 23% 14%
Dean 10% 8% 9%
Edwards 15% 18% 21%
Kerry 24% 17% 17%
Kucinich 0% 1% 1%
Lieberman 7% 10% 5%
Sharpton 0% 1% 15%
Undecided 23% 22% 18%

573. vonKreedon - 1/27/2004 5:08:26 PM

Table version of Jex's poll numbers:

574. jexster - 1/27/2004 5:10:42 PM

The Bush SOTU speech was a dud. I cannot recall a more politically misdirected, ill-conceived, and utterly feckless SOTU performance especiall in an Election year.

A-5 is right on. Karl Rove is a very over-rated commodity.
Bush essentially pissed away one of major address opportunities he has this year as incumbent all to FEED THE BASE that already has, has since SC primary 2000.

This is all Rove can do....feed the base and play hide the salame in the hopes that no one notices....


In case no one's noticed, Democrats have gained a bit more bounce in their gaits lately.

These two items quantify the why:

575. vonKreedon - 1/27/2004 5:14:57 PM

That's a good point. The Repubs have lost the initiative and with it control over the news. The SotU was supposed to suppress the Dem bounce from Iowa, but it did not. The Dem nomination campaign turning into a real race has had good news cycle impact, not at all what the DNC was afraid of when they tried to schedule primaries to prevent there being a real race.

576. jexster - 1/27/2004 5:34:21 PM

Pride comes before the Fall!! (so to apeak!)

Watch their Big Bad Best Campaign Money Can Buy as it in unfolds...It painfully obvious that the RNC going to piss away millions on the same old shopworn "he's one of dem liburul panty waists, America hating democrats" with usual side of southern fried RNC slime jobs..


Fighting the last war....a rerun - we've seen it...so Bring It On - We're fully engaged

One Note Karl Keep on Keepin On Big fellaQ



Guess Bush would have been wiser to give a real State of the Union address, rather than the partisan jeremiad he chose to deliver. But it's too late now. On to November


Was That a Bounce or a Thud?

On Wednesday, DR commented on how partisan Bush's State of the Union (SOTU) address seemed and, for that reason, out of step with the political center of the country which harbors considerable skepticism about the president and his policies.

Results of the latest Newsweek poll, conducted two days after Bush's address, suggest this diagnosis was accurate. Instead of the bounce in approval ratings frequently enjoyed by presidents after they deliver the SOTU, Bush appears to have landed with a thud.

, John Kerry actually beats Bush in a head-to-head matchup among registered voters, 49 percent to 46 percent, which has not happened before in Newsweek's poll. Other candidates don't fare quite so well, but are still close. Clark, for example, has only a 1 point deficit in a Bush-Clark matchup and John Edwards loses his matchup by only 3 points (note that Edwards hitherto has never been closer than 11 points when matched up against Bush).

577. jexster - 1/27/2004 5:46:28 PM

More on The Big Bunker Busting Bomb


Bush's State of the Union (SOTU) address failed to generate the traditional post-speech bounce in presidential support. Today more results of the poll have been released and further illustrate his lack of success in moving public opinion.

they asked voters who selected a given issue as "very important" whether they thought a Democratic president would do a better job than Bush on that issue. Here are the same issues with the percentage point lead (or deficit) for a Democratic president among these voters: economy and jobs (+22); health care (+34); education (+22); terrorism and homeland security (-18); situation in Iraq (dead even); and Social Security/Medicare (+32).

Then, they asked voters who selected a given issue as "very important" whether they thought a Democratic president would do a better job than Bush on that issue. Here are the same issues with the percentage point lead (or deficit) for a Democratic president among these voters: economy and jobs (+22); health care (+34); education (+22); terrorism and homeland security (-18); situation in Iraq (dead even); and Social Security/Medicare (+32).


Pretty interesting! Despite how much Bush dwelt on terrorism and Iraq in his SOTU address, his lead on the former, his area of greatest strength, is actually less than the Democratic leads on the four domestic issues. And he has no lead whatsoever on Iraq, the front line, according to him, of the war against terror


Finally, how about this one: "Do you think going to war with Iraq has made Americans safer from terrorism?". Yes: 44 percent. No: 53 percent. Since this is exactly the case Bush was trying to make in the SOTU, disagreement here is a telling indicator that his speech should be considered "mission not accomplished".

578. jexster - 1/27/2004 9:04:12 PM

James Carville: In two weeks we will know who ia going to be getting us a piece of Bush...root and branch

579. arkymalarky - 1/27/2004 9:07:31 PM

? Wonder if we'll get to see much of Carville this time. He's my hero.

580. rdbrewer - 1/27/2004 10:46:55 PM

Jex, how 'bout your boy, Clark!

581. wabbit - 1/27/2004 10:48:15 PM

NH Primaries 9:55 p.m.

582. rdbrewer - 1/27/2004 10:48:20 PM

What horse will you jump to now?

583. angel-five - 1/27/2004 10:48:53 PM

I think you'll see Carville. I also think he's working to tone down his image a bit but the last talk show I saw him on, he looked like Hunter S. Thompson, so perhaps not.

Hunter and James, separated at birth.

584. angel-five - 1/27/2004 10:50:03 PM

I think you might be a tad early with that, RD.

585. rdbrewer - 1/27/2004 10:57:02 PM

You might be right, A-5, but most pundits today are counting him out because he spent his wad in New Hampshire.

586. vonKreedon - 1/27/2004 11:46:06 PM

I think that the Feb. 3rd primaries will determine the fate of Clark's candidacy. As you can see in Message # 573, Clark's polling numbers are very good in the next set of states, at this time. Obviously this may be completely overtaken by surges by Kerry and Edwards. Or Clark could win one or two of them, come in second in one or two and be back in the thick of the race.

I don't think that he has drained his cash reserves in NH. According to CNN Clark has over $3 million, which is not much compared to Dean or Kerry, but still should get him through the week. If he does well next week then the money will continue to com in, if he does poorly then he's done anyway and we can start rooting for a Kerry/Edwards ticket.

587. vonKreedon - 1/27/2004 11:48:33 PM

Looking forward to the general election, what states do people think will be in play? Given that pretty much any state that moves from Repub to Dem would swing the election, what are the opportunity states for the Dems? Are there any opportunity states for the Repubs? Is there any chance for anyone to actually win a mandate this next election, or even just win the election outright?

588. robertjayb - 1/28/2004 12:34:00 PM

Kerry snags bigfoot South Carolina congressman; Iowa governor heeds his wife...

MANCHESTER, N.H. -- (AP) -- South Carolina Rep. Jim Clyburn and Iowa Gov. Tom Vilsack intend to endorse John Kerry, officials said today, a coup for the Democratic presidential front-runner the day after his win in New Hampshire.

The backing of the six-term Democratic congressman, the dominant black politician in his state, is critical in South Carolina, where almost half the voters in the Feb. 3 primary are expected to be minorities.

589. robertjayb - 1/28/2004 12:34:54 PM

Kerry snags bigfoot South Carolina congressman; Iowa governor heeds his wife...

MANCHESTER, N.H. -- (AP) -- South Carolina Rep. Jim Clyburn and Iowa Gov. Tom Vilsack intend to endorse John Kerry, officials said today, a coup for the Democratic presidential front-runner the day after his win in New Hampshire.

The backing of the six-term Democratic congressman, the dominant black politician in his state, is critical in South Carolina, where almost half the voters in the Feb. 3 primary are expected to be minorities.

590. robertjayb - 1/28/2004 12:38:02 PM

xcuse the double---the machine lied to me---honest, it did.

591. vonKreedon - 1/28/2004 12:39:18 PM

Ooh, the Clyburn endorsement is huge for Kerry, and a big blow to Edwards and Sharpton. I don't imagine that Sharpton hoped to get Clyburn's endorsment, but he probably hoped that Clyburn would withold endorsing anyone.

592. TheWizardOfWhimsy - 1/28/2004 12:43:21 PM

Prediction: Kerry will win in South Carolina as a result of Edwards, Sharpton, Clark and Liberman splitting the remainder.

593. vonKreedon - 1/28/2004 12:59:07 PM

A Kerry win in SC next week, and first or second in most of the other states would probably end the campaign. If Edwards doesn't win in SC he is likely done, certainly if he doesn't do much better than expected in several other states. A Kerry win in SC and AZ probably ends Clark's campaign as well. Dean and Lieberman may keep running out of sheer stubborness, but this might well be decided next week after all.

594. TheWizardOfWhimsy - 1/28/2004 1:44:53 PM

I'm hoping Kerry does win, offers Edwards the VP spot and Sharpton a chance to actually work in some capacity in a Kerry administration.

Dems are realizing how important it is and are beginning to vote with their heads now— instead of with their hearts. I suppose we could thank Nader for that little life lesson.

I also think there's a lot of resentment directed at Edwards in Carolina for what he said about Jesse Helms in New Hampshire last week. I think it will have a significant effect on Edwards' numbers.

595. jayackroyd - 1/28/2004 2:16:08 PM

In the current issue of USNews, Frank Luntz says his focus group work indicates that 90% of US voters have already made up their minds on who they'll vote for in the general election. It's often said that an election is a referendum on this or that, but it is seldom the case. But this one really does seem to be turning into a referendum on Bush. Witness the passionate commitment by primary voters to pick the guy with the best chance to win.

596. vonKreedon - 1/28/2004 2:19:37 PM

Does Luntz say who these voters have decided to vote for?

597. wonkers2 - 1/28/2004 3:26:31 PM

Nader is still lurking in the background. It doesn't look likely that he will run, but he hasn't ruled it out.

598. vonKreedon - 1/28/2004 3:29:05 PM

The Greens should have used Nader's talent for creating self-sustaining grass-roots organizations to build the party, instead of wasting him on a go for broke national campaign. For the Greens to have an impact they have to start at the local and state level and work up to the national, not the other way around.

Nader running now would be stupid.

599. TheWizardOfWhimsy - 1/28/2004 3:54:46 PM

600. judithathome - 1/28/2004 3:59:15 PM

I'm tired of the Dean Is A Nutcase routine. You'd think no one had time to report on Bush denying ever saying Iraq was an "imminent threat", wouldn't you? Where's the "liar liar" charge on this BS?

601. jexster - 1/28/2004 4:02:41 PM

A Message for One Note Rove, Fat Lady

I have a message for the influence peddlers, for the polluters, the HMOs, the drug companies, big oil and all the special interests who now call the White House home. We're coming. You're going. And don't let the door hit you on the way out.

602. arkymalarky - 1/28/2004 5:30:14 PM

Given that pretty much any state that moves from Repub to Dem would swing the election, what are the opportunity states for the Dems?

AR is a HUGE one, but of course we don't have many delegates.

603. vonKreedon - 1/28/2004 5:39:04 PM

After saying several times that he had no need or plans to shake up his campaign, Dean fires Trippi and hires former Gore campaign aid. Dean cannot help but shoot himself in the foot, even when doing the correct thing.

604. vonKreedon - 1/28/2004 5:40:25 PM

Ark - Why do you think AR is a big opportunity state for the Dems?

605. concerned - 1/28/2004 5:46:16 PM

Re. 601 -

Jexster -

Let's see. By my reckoning, you started out supporting Dean, then Clark, then Dean again and now Kerry. I believe you're only allowed to switch candidate loyalties twice. So, sorry, you'll have to stay with Dean.

606. arkymalarky - 1/28/2004 5:47:39 PM

The Republican Party here is HUGELY split over the education issues here. It's very complicated, but basically those Democrats and Republicans here who tend to vote Republicans as president because of pretty conservative ethical principles have had their sensibilities heavily stepped on by a Republican governor, and the RNC has been duly and loudly and repeatedly notified that they are not happy.

607. arkymalarky - 1/28/2004 5:48:44 PM

The NCLB and other "local control" issues, which are VERY important to rural conservatives, whether they're Republican or Democrat, will significantly affect how they vote.

608. vonKreedon - 1/28/2004 5:49:39 PM

So NCLB would be a good campaign issue for Dems in AR? Or is it more local than that?

609. vonKreedon - 1/28/2004 5:50:15 PM

Ooops, big time x-post.

610. arkymalarky - 1/28/2004 5:53:03 PM

NCLB would be a GREAT campaign issue across the nation. Look at what a Republican-controlled Virginia legislature did about it. In AR it's more local, but it will seriously affect votes for the president if things continue as they're going now.

611. judithathome - 1/28/2004 5:54:52 PM

I believe you're only allowed to switch candidate loyalties twice.

Maybe where you live....

I don't understand why this seems like such a gaffe, changing candidate loyalities. As time passes and you learn more about a man, you might become aware of things about him you don't care for so much.

You would gripe just as much if we said it didn't matter who the nominee was, we were voting the party. At least this way, people are dropping someone when they learn he might not be all he was cracked up to be...rather than having evidence that he is lacking and supporting him anyhow as many Bushies do.

I have no problems myself...I said I wanted Kerry early last year. Still do.

612. jexster - 1/28/2004 7:01:30 PM

TD...as always the problem is yourr "reckoning"

I am offically with all 3 campaigns. First I hit Kerry, then Dean, then Clark

but there aren't actually 3 campaigns ..there is really only one

613. jexster - 1/28/2004 7:05:36 PM

Hell vK Trippi???

I must have seen 1/2 doz features on Trippi - author of Dean success

614. jexster - 1/28/2004 7:06:59 PM

NCLB IS going to be a campaign issue and probably in the top 5 or so...that's why I linked the Education Poll Analysis clARKY

615. arkymalarky - 1/28/2004 8:36:17 PM

Where, Jex? I'm missing it somehow.

616. angel-five - 1/28/2004 10:34:36 PM

I honestly think that Clark as the nominee has the best chance to beat Bush. So, judging by the vitriol coming from the right, do many Republicans. But I'll support not just Clark, but Kerry, Edwards or Dean with my volunteer efforts if they are the nominee, because as great as the differences are between those men, they pale compared to the differences between any one of them and the current President.

617. angel-five - 1/28/2004 10:36:35 PM

Kerry is currently polling higher than Bush, because he's the Dem frontrunner in a slow news week for Bush. That won't last. Bush has two hundred million dollars, as Jay pointed out (btw Jay, I don't know what you thought I was accusing the DNC of, but I can safely say I wasn't). Bush is the sitting President. Kerry will have to do something more impressive than win in NH to keep his numbers.

618. angel-five - 1/28/2004 10:37:34 PM

BTW, Dean would not be a good president. His temper is horrendous and he wouldn't have a mandate, almost by definition. But I'd support him over our current President, not because I am a partisan, but because Bush is that bad.

619. Magoseph - 1/28/2004 10:52:09 PM

A5, why do think that ... Clark as the nominee has the best chance to beat Bush?

620. angel-five - 1/28/2004 11:19:06 PM

The American people perceive themselves to be under attack from terrorism and our economy is for crap, by our own standards. Under these conditions the American public aren't in favor of electing someone who can be portrayed as militarily clueless or pro-taxation and liberal. If Kerry is the nominee, the GOP angle of attack will be that he's as liberal as Teddy Kennedy, whereas Clark routinely gets accused of being a crypto-Republican. The stain on Kerry will be he's liberal, Clark wants to eliminate taxes on families of four earning less than 50k per year, people can do that math.

Edwards vs. Clark, Edwards is the only Democrat that really looks Presidential, but he's a freshman Senator and Clark was SACEUR during NATO combat. I wouldn't want to offer odds between the two but I do know how the ad campaigns will go.

And Dean is done, he'll get pasted as a liberal madman up one side and down the other by both wings, despite the fact that Dean's pretty conservative about a lot of stuff. He should have fired his campaign staff a long time ago. Clark should have got new talent in too, but some will become available soon.

I should stipulate that Clark will turn some people off because he's so smooth and ambivalent about some issues. He's going to either prove or disprove the theorem that someone can win this election by being the Anti-Bush.

Oh, and as far as real politics goes -- Clark has a better nationwide network than any of them, Clark will be able to raise more money, Clark will gather independents and even fiscal conservatives to his banner, and the American people will vote for him in droves if he's the nominee.

621. Magoseph - 1/28/2004 11:49:11 PM

Thanks, A5, as can see, we agree on Clark: Message # 152. I like how succinctly you cornered the main points on why Clark is your guy.

622. jayackroyd - 1/29/2004 3:55:15 AM

Dean has fired Trippi and signed on a Gore guy. It's over.

One could say that it was over before this desperation move, and I wouldn't argue. But the decision, with all that money, to not go back to the base argument--essentially ABB--is, in my view a mistake.

But, in my view, seeking the knockout punch in Iowa was also a mistake. That was a very tough win for him, and he could have stood on his previous criticism of the caucuses as a reason not to participate.

And then he wouldn't have had to move wacky left on trade, ethanol and farm subsidies.

But, IAC, firing Trippi, and trying to regroup as a more traditional candidate is doomed. There's no time, and he'll alienate his base.

623. jayackroyd - 1/29/2004 4:30:59 AM

I forgot to say that this means that the Feb 3 poll numbers must look like shit for Dean.

624. TheWizardOfWhimsy - 1/29/2004 10:03:06 AM

So called "smart pundits" are saying Kerry must metaphorically plunge a knife into John Edwards in SC or the guy will come back like Dracula in all the other primaries. I hope Kerry doesn't take the bait because the Dean/Gephart mudfest put the nails in their respective coffins, destroying Dean's chances in NH.

It must be demoralizing for Dean who's given all the others the ideas, what to say to engage the crowds and how to ultimately trip up the Bush juggernaut.

I saw a stump speech of Edwards in SC trying to appeal to a considerable number of African-Americans in the crowd. It wasn't working and he came off, to me at least, as very slick and canned—the crowd was zombiesque and faintly applauded. If Kerry can garner the support of Rep. Clyburn I'd bet he'd do well there.

625. jexster - 1/29/2004 11:53:40 AM

Another Victory for Electability

626. jexster - 1/29/2004 12:24:33 PM

Schneider - Kerry may finish Dean next Tuesday. Its hard to see a Dean win any state next week.

627. TheWizardOfWhimsy - 1/29/2004 3:47:44 PM

Kerry did get Clyburn's support in SC—look out John Edwards.

628. jayackroyd - 1/29/2004 4:31:42 PM

Oh, and Dean's out of money. He blew through the 40 million and got nothing for it.

Or rather Trippi did, with his firm taking their 15% of the media budget. What a racket.

629. judithathome - 1/29/2004 5:19:54 PM

Anyone see Bill Clinton on CNN "not getting involved"? He looked damned good.

630. vonKreedon - 1/29/2004 5:23:27 PM

No, what did his Slickness have to say?

631. judithathome - 1/29/2004 5:30:10 PM

I hate to say anything because I was only half listening but he said either Kerry was too liberal or Kerry shouldn't be punished for being thought too liberal. Sorry, after I looked up and was dazzled by his white hair, I realized I should be listening more closely.

632. vonKreedon - 1/29/2004 5:33:48 PM

Interesting, given that he is a stealth supporter of Clark, and that he is very slick, he probably said something about not punishing Kerry for being thought too liberal. Plant the meme,

Kerry is thought to be too liberal.

Did he say anything about Clark?

633. judithathome - 1/29/2004 5:53:03 PM

I really don't know...I'm sure it will be all over the news tonight.

634. vonKreedon - 1/29/2004 6:05:40 PM

What CNN program was he on?

Questions, questions, questions...

Inquiring minds want to know!

635. jexster - 1/29/2004 6:09:48 PM

Dean is flaming seriously flaming

CNN sez he has run out of cash having gobbled 30 million in overhead type costs out of the 40 raised.

The rhetorical lead "Is Dean the biggest dot com bust since the dot com bust"

636. vonKreedon - 1/29/2004 6:11:54 PM

Ok, I looked for myself. Appears to have been Wolf Blitzer. Some quotes, though looking at them again they seem to be attributed, not direct:

"I don't think that it's fair to say that he can't be elected or that he's too far to the left," Clinton said of Kerry.

"All I know is that when I was trying to reverse 12 years of what we've had for the last four, where we were taxing less and spending more, it's fun in the short run, but it's a recipe for disaster," Clinton said when he emerged from the meeting[with Senate Dems].

637. vonKreedon - 1/29/2004 6:11:56 PM

Ok, I looked for myself. Appears to have been Wolf Blitzer. Some quotes, though looking at them again they seem to be attributed, not direct:

"I don't think that it's fair to say that he can't be elected or that he's too far to the left," Clinton said of Kerry.

"All I know is that when I was trying to reverse 12 years of what we've had for the last four, where we were taxing less and spending more, it's fun in the short run, but it's a recipe for disaster," Clinton said when he emerged from the meeting[with Senate Dems].

638. judithathome - 1/29/2004 6:13:38 PM

vonK...it was a blurb in the news update; someone had stopped him at an appearence somewhere and asked him what he thought about the primaries. He was just schmoozing with reporters, something at which he's an expert.

I think you may be right that he was planting a meme...nice way to gig Kerry without really drawing blood.

639. jexster - 1/29/2004 6:22:21 PM

Elaine Chao The Cheney Regime's Secretary of Labor promised America "jobs. jobs, jobs,"

Well now that Bush has lost more jobs than any since Hoover guess what is Labor Secretary is up 2?

Why she's in Baghdad promising "jobs, jobs, jobs"

According to CNN she has yet to say anything about US jobs

640. jexster - 1/29/2004 6:26:25 PM

George Herbert Hoover Bush -


The kinda guy who'd fuck ya in the ass and not have the god damned common courtesy to give you a reach around

641. judithathome - 1/29/2004 6:30:31 PM

Jeez jex...that's a tad crude.

642. wonkers2 - 1/29/2004 6:48:13 PM

Elaine Chao, the ice maiden. A completely tin ear on labor issues. Very poor choice for Labor Secretary.

643. wabbit - 1/29/2004 6:54:40 PM

toys

644. judithathome - 1/29/2004 6:54:43 PM

Toys.

645. jayackroyd - 1/29/2004 7:42:32 PM

640

I'm so glad that this is not my thread. Off to politics to see what havoc has been wreaked there.

646. vonKreedon - 1/29/2004 10:57:32 PM

Anyone watch the debate? Any commentary?

647. wonkers2 - 1/29/2004 11:04:47 PM

I was called tonight by a recording by the "First Gentleman" of Michigan, Daniel Mulhern, husband of our brainy and beautiful Governor, Jennifer Granholm, asking me to vote for John Kerry in person at a Dem Caucus Feb 7 or by internet and as well to volunteer to help in the campaign. He was too late for my vote in the Michigan primary. This afternoon I cast my ballot for Dean. If Kerry wins I will volunteer to help out on his campaign.

648. wonkers2 - 1/29/2004 11:05:37 PM

The automated recording was very slick and professionally done.

649. vonKreedon - 1/29/2004 11:09:08 PM

Over in Politics rdb states that he is having serious doubts about voting for the borrow-and-spend Bush. At least tax-and-spend has the potential to to balance the budget.

Interesting. What's a conservative's options? Is it way too late for McCain or someone to mount a protest run for the Repub nomination?

650. jexster - 1/29/2004 11:10:55 PM

Gee Wonk how was that net vote - other than the fact that you just helped prolong the Doc's death agonies that is...

How do they know you are you? How do they handle regular poll voting? How do they handle absentee ballot voting? Are there cut offs to internet voting?

CNN had a very troubling Dean report today...he has run out of money..Ron Brownstein likened his candidacy to John Connolly and the anchor, "A political dotcom"....

DAMN

651. jexster - 1/29/2004 11:11:53 PM

JAH...yes sometimes we must be crude ...

The Wisdom of Gunney Hartman...let them who have ears hear!

652. jexster - 1/29/2004 11:14:15 PM

Say the Savior of American Democracy, Grand Ayatollah Sistani, had some thoughts on that subject I think everyone will find interesting.

Shall I lead a discussion in R&P

653. jexster - 1/29/2004 11:17:52 PM

Here you are clARKY..everything you need to know about the dynamics of education as a political issue in 2004



Bashing No Child Left Behind: It's Not Just for Democrats Anymore

See the Washington Post article linked in the above too

654. jayackroyd - 1/29/2004 11:26:16 PM

649

The question is turnout, really. The dems and independents are turned out heavily in NH. If Bush is just another freakin' democrat, in fiscal terms, he may not be able to turn out the base. in rdb's case, the fiscal conservatives.

In addition, while he signals strongly with code words and scriptural references in his speeches, Bush hasn't done much for the religious right, either. So he has some potential problems (I swear I posted something on this recently) with his base--problems that cannot be fixed, because it is too late. That may explain the stupid and transparently false Mars initiative and the complete retreat to security issues in the SOTU. He's trying to shore up his base, and keep independent appeal.

We'll see. If the dems had better candidates, things would be brighter for them. But Dean has disproven one of my repeated statements--that 200 million dollars trumps a lot of policy. If he can piss away 40 and get beaten in two states, maybe Bush can piss away 200 and get beaten in fifty.

655. jexster - 1/29/2004 11:29:07 PM

God I do love Ruy Teixeira....he's better than Charlie Cook...and I taught Charlie everything he knows (inside joke)


On Making Merry with Kerry...

Yesterday, DR argued that John Kerry has emerged as the Democratic frontrunner and very plausible general election candidate because he has threshhold credibility with voters in three key areas: as commander-in-chief and defender of national security; as steward of the economy and custodian of the domestic agenda; and through his campaigning and ability to connect with voters.

But Kerry will need much more than threshhold credibility to beat George Bush. In this regard, Kerry's revival of warmed-over Gore-style populism is problematic. Kerry has been putting this populism front-and-center in his recent campaign speeches, including his victory speech Tuesday night in New Hampshire.

Now, there's a lot to be said for such a theme. As with Bill Clinton in 1992, it is probably an effective way to consolidate the support he needs to get the nomination. And it can and should be an important part of the case to be made against George Bush in the general election campaign. Polls consistently show that Bush and his administration are viewed as being on the side of the wealthy and big corporations, not the average American. It would be political malpractice on Kerry's part not to emphasize this.

But that emphasis shows more what you're against than where you want to take the country(Kerry would do well to borrow some of Edwards' more optimistic approach as well as Edwards' whole frame that Bush's tax and other policies are a radical shift toward rewarding wealth instead of work.)

656. jexster - 1/29/2004 11:34:05 PM

And for clArky from the above..

Therefore, even more so than Bill Clinton’s campaign in 1992, Kerry's campaign has to be about the future of the economy and the country in general–a future that Republican policies have seriously compromised. As pollster Stanley Greenberg argues in his new book, The Two Americas, the future that would resonate most with American voters is an opportunity society of the type envisioned by the Democrats of John F. Kennedy’s era. Such a society would give everyone access to the resources and education to get ahead and is radically counterposed to where Bush is taking the country.


One area that immediately presents itself, especially given its clear connection to an opportunity society, is education. The Republicans’ program in this area is simple: high standards through the No Child Left Behind (NCLB) Act, while presiding over a stagnant federal education budget and dramatic education cutbacks in fiscally-crunched states. That formula means states don’t have the money to help the many failing schools designated by NCLB, much less improve and modernize their school systems for the 21st century.

657. Hobbes - 1/29/2004 11:35:32 PM

Interesting. What's a conservative's options? Is it way too late for McCain or someone to mount a protest run for the Repub nomination?

McCain has already endorsed Bush in 2004. What a sucker. Rove set out to ruin McCain in 2000 and yet he is still doling out favors to the Bush camp. I thought JMc had more spine than this.

658. jexster - 1/29/2004 11:36:38 PM

It also means that NCLB will have the unintended consequence, under those conditions, of increasing the number of unsastisfactory schools in those states that are among the more "fiscally-strapped"


Sooey pig and California Here We Come

659. rdbrewer - 1/29/2004 11:41:44 PM

Republicans seem to reaching the end of their rope with Bush with synchronicity. Everyone is rounding on Bush at the same moment. Andrew Sullivan points out that Limbaugh is getting in on the act too. Suddenly, everyone has doubts. The NEA button appears to have been a hot one.

660. rdbrewer - 1/29/2004 11:42:31 PM

I wish we had a conservative alternative candidate to keep Bush honest.

661. angel-five - 1/29/2004 11:49:20 PM

What a sucker. Rove set out to ruin McCain in 2000 and yet he is still doling out favors to the Bush camp. I thought JMc had more spine than this.

There are election years past 2004, you know.

662. jexster - 1/29/2004 11:52:39 PM

Lieberman Death Watch - The Media Sittin Shiva for Joe - Columbia Journalism Review

663. jexster - 1/29/2004 11:56:28 PM

rd...you want someone, the conservative equivalent say of Ted Kennedy to Jimmy Carter or Gene McCarthy/RFK to the Last Great Tejas Presidunce...


I get it...but that's not the Republican way..or else I'd have used Republican examples

664. jayackroyd - 1/29/2004 11:59:06 PM

I was talking this evening with a friend of mine who is very much right wing about this very issue. He's the one who got me to register as a conservative here in New York (long story), which in some ways is to the right of the repubs, but in the ways I think are good ways.

He reports that the right wing literature that he follows--the libertarians and the national review types--are way unhappy with the president. I've said before that he represents all the bad republican things and none of the good ones, and this is the theme, really. Steel tariffs. Farm subsidies. Huge deficit. Rapidly rising spending. Federalization of education control. Attacks on civil liberties. (One wonders whether the black helicopter nuts are more vocal now. They should be.)

It's ironic, in very many ways, that Clinton was a much better president wrt the policy concerns of this segment of the right that attacked him so vociferously. Of course, perhaps that's why they did. He was stealing their issues and thus preserving power for the democrats.

And that last comment gets me, eventually to my point. There's always conflict between the pursuit of power and pursuit of sound policy. We've seen Dean go off the leftie deep end in Iowa dismissing sound policy in the pursuit of votes. We've seen the president do so with trade and education initiatives.

Do the conservatives love power so much that they will turn out for this guy? That, to my mind, is the question of this election. Would they rather have a centrist democrat or a crony capitalist, free spending republican with really nutty foreign policy ideas?

And if so, either way, why?

665. jexster - 1/30/2004 12:02:03 AM

But you do raise an interesting, larger question...

It used to be the conventionl wisdom of the commentariat that the American people had an innate sense of Madisonian check and balance ie that they loved divided government and even if the Presidential and Congressional parties were nominally the same, somehow it would always come out that one would balance the other.


Clearly this has not been so with Bush who has had his way with congress.....I'll spare the examples...

Does the body politic channel Madison?

Will this have an impact either in Congressional or Presidential races?

666. angel-five - 1/30/2004 12:20:49 AM

smile

667. vonKreedon - 1/30/2004 12:30:18 AM

A5 picks up the coveted post of the beast with a smile.

668. robertjayb - 1/30/2004 12:34:23 AM

Charlie Rose has representative Clyburn (?) of South Carolina. Also Wilson Pickett.

669. angel-five - 1/30/2004 12:48:27 AM

Charlie Rose always looks to me like a) his water glass is brimming with vodka and b) he has a three-chambered heart. Is it that he lulls his guests into a sense of ease, is that how he gets them to talk? If you saw him with his eyes closed, you could be forgiven for thinking that he was dead.

670. jayackroyd - 1/30/2004 4:30:31 AM

665
IMO

What's happened is that the congressional check has been destroyed by the democrats deal with the devil to gerrymander racially pure districts to ensure black and hispanic congresssmen. The effect has been very few congressional districts in play, and the republicans have been more effective than the dems at gerrymanding the districts in play, even, in Texas and elsewhere, between censuses.

The Senate is a different story. But the republican exploitation of the democrat desire to gerrymander districts racially has been masterful.

And bad for the country. (Both parties.)

671. jexster - 1/30/2004 9:31:51 AM

Good point...but do voters enter booths and say with RD "We have to keep Bush honest" and how well might that work in the few cong races that are competitive?

672. jexster - 1/30/2004 9:32:57 AM

Because RD is right..we DO have to keep Bush honest....take a look at AP for the new deficit estimate and Bush 1/3 increase in prescription drug bene all of a sudden

673. jexster - 1/30/2004 9:33:51 AM

It could be all over on Feb 3

GREENVILLE, S.C. (Reuters) - John Kerry (news - web sites), on a roll after winning the first two Democratic presidential contests, has opened big leads in Missouri and Arizona and is challenging for the top spot in South Carolina and Oklahoma, according to a Reuters/MSNBC/Zogby poll released on Friday.

Kerry has opened a 34-point lead in Missouri and a 21-point lead in Arizona, and trails John Edwards (news - web sites) by 1 point in South Carolina and Wesley Clark (news - web sites) by 8 points in Oklahoma in a three-day tracking poll of the four states.

674. jayackroyd - 1/30/2004 9:40:51 AM

We'll see. Three weeks ago Dean had it all wrapped up.

675. vonKreedon - 1/30/2004 10:05:16 AM

Jex raises an potentially interesting strategy for disaffected conservatives, like rdb, vote for anti-borrow-and-spend candidates for Congress. I have no idea if such candidates exist out there, particularly as they would have to be vocally against the Bush budgets for the protest to have any meaning. Does anyone have any information on potential conservative rebels running for Congress?

Another thought, could the disgruntled Repubs vote for Buchanan, does his brand of fiscally conservative America first politics jib more with your politics than Bush? Or is Buchanan's protectionism too anti-free market?

676. jayackroyd - 1/30/2004 10:21:10 AM

Buchanan is running??!!??

And no, even if so, he is a Wobbly type, not a libertarian type. He has the same problems on trade and free markets that Bush has.

I think Bush is blowing his base. And that the war is making it difficult for him to move to the center, which, of course, is why he has been blowing off his base. This doesn't affect the Luntz analysis I mentioned earlier; I think he's right when he says people have already made up their minds.

But are the members of the base really gonna turn out for someone who has not delivered on their issues.

This raises an interesting question for me. I never understood, as I've said, the conservative loathing for Clinton. He was a moderate guy. He appointed a Republican as defense secretary. He balanced the budget. He reformed welfare. He pushed NAFTA through against his party's wishes. This is the kind of thing you would think conservatives would be happy with. Instead they launched the most savage and concerted attacks against a sitting president since Andrew Johnson.

And now I find myself loathing Bush--more so than anyone since Nixon (well, there was D'Amato, but Schumer isn't much better--and Nixon is looking better in comparison[I am dead serious about that. Bush is so bad that he's made me think better of Nixon]). Now I believe the reason I loathe the guy is that I loathe the policies--the proposed immigration reform in counter balance. The weird thing is that I loathe the policies that are intended to bring him to the center--steel tariffs, ag subsidies and so forth.

But the conservative loathing of Clinton looked irrational to me. Am I being equally irrational?

[insert concerned's rip here]

677. TheWizardOfWhimsy - 1/30/2004 10:27:48 AM

I heard Kevin Philips in an interview on Fresh Air last night and he spoke about how much the Bushes are mistrusted by a lot of the "other type Republicans" or as he implied, the common man Republicans like Ike, Nixon, Reagan and Goldwater.

678. vonKreedon - 1/30/2004 10:31:40 AM

Buchanan is not running at this time, but Pat could jump into the race at any time.

My analysis of the Repub loathing of Clinton has to do with the Reagan Revolution. The Repubs thought that they had achieved fundamental realignment, that libralism had been marginalized and that Repubs would control the government for the forseeable future; that Reagan was their FDR. Then this slick bubba shows up and not only wins the Presidency, but co-opts their best issues, oversees one of the best economic runs in history, and then gets re-elected! It endangered their world view and they responded with a virulent viciousness.

If we get a replay of this scenario in the coming election the Repubs could implode.

679. jayackroyd - 1/30/2004 10:56:30 AM

677

There is a pretty good interview with Phillips on salon.com. He says the only way he is not voting democrat in this election is if the ticket is Hillary/Lieberman.

678

Yes, vK, I agree that it is something like that. But that means my point somewhere upthread--that this is not about policy, but about power--is the real issue. That is, to my mind, one more weakness of those left of center. They are more policy-oriented.

You could argue that what Clinton really did was hijack the conservative strategy of doing whatever was necessary to stay in office for the sake of staying in office, and that they found that infuriating.

I'd disagree with that. There were some very farsighted policies, mostly driven by Rubin/Summers put in place. Sometimes those had kick-in dates ten years in the future, to avoid the political fallout. If we survive this administration, I really believe Clinton will be seen, historically, as an extraordinarily effective president.

680. jayackroyd - 1/30/2004 10:57:45 AM

Following up on the idea that it's power not policy that is primary, a friend of mine, even more disgusted than I am, said that the Gore/Bush race was not about anything other than who gets to divide up the money.

"I try to be cynical, but it's hard to keep up"

681. TheWizardOfWhimsy - 1/30/2004 11:23:58 AM

Here‘s a link to the Philip's Fresh Air interview

682. concerned - 1/30/2004 11:25:42 AM

centrist democrat

Kerry's not it.

683. PelleNilsson - 1/30/2004 11:27:27 AM

"this is not about policy, but about power"

That's one side of it and the public, at least not here, is not fond of naked power grabs.

On the other hand it could be about policy but then it is a policy that is not very attractive to the ordinary voter.

Could it be that scales are falling from eyes, or is that just wishful thinking?

684. rdbrewer - 1/30/2004 12:24:51 PM

Lesson for Republican presidents: Never push the NEA hot button.

685. jayackroyd - 1/30/2004 12:31:47 PM

On the other hand it could be about policy but then it is a policy that is not very attractive to the ordinary voter.

That, imo, is the same thing as saying it's all about power.

686. jayackroyd - 1/30/2004 12:35:32 PM

Could it be that scales are falling from eyes, or is that just wishful thinking?

If you mean among the general public, the drumbeat in the media is growing louder. Again, I don't know what the conservative press has to say, other than Fox's steady pro Bush spin. But in the stuff I read, including the mainstream news weeklies like the Economist or Time, questions are being raised.

You can also see the increasing defensiveness of the administration, and its decreasing effectiveness.

OTOH, they still haven't spent much of that 200 million dollars.

687. robertjayb - 1/30/2004 2:17:28 PM

DailyKos.com has recent tracking polls which show Kerry with substantial leads in Missouri, Arizona, and North Dakota. Edwards has a narrow margin in South Carolina and Clark leads handily in oklahoma.

688. robertjayb - 1/30/2004 2:20:55 PM

Apologies to rdbrewer: That should be Oh--Oh--Oklahoma--where the wind goes sweeping down the plain, etc., etc.

689. judithathome - 1/30/2004 4:47:23 PM

Charlie Rose always looks to me like a) his water glass is brimming with vodka and b) he has a three-chambered heart. Is it that he lulls his guests into a sense of ease, is that how he gets them to talk? If you saw him with his eyes closed, you could be forgiven for thinking that he was dead

He's exactly like this in person, too. And he has a one chambered brain.

690. rdbrewer - 1/30/2004 5:08:48 PM

RJB, I'll follow up in Cafe.

691. jexster - 1/30/2004 6:05:41 PM

Bush Urges Seniors to Get Back to Work
$7 Trillion National Debt Cited

692. jexster - 1/30/2004 6:09:18 PM

Norman, OK: President Bush is seen by many of his supporters as an answer to their prayers. "He was hand picked by the man upstairs and that's good enough for me," gushes Tammy Foster, a spot welder from Norman, Oklahoma...

"There was only one Jesus," Bush whispered during a recent Sunday service, "but in all humility I probably come closer to him than anyone else this millennium." Bush reiterated his view that U.S. Mideast policy would bring on Armageddon and give the gift of the Second Coming to all humanity. Given the upsurge in demand for fissionable materials in Iran and Pakistan following the U.S. invasion of Iraq, his expectations appear to be amply justified...


"Bush Chosen by God," Faithful Report
Christ-like Image Unmistakable

693. jexster - 1/30/2004 6:38:08 PM

RD do you know Tammy?

694. jayackroyd - 1/30/2004 7:18:42 PM

Now if there were a leftwing drudge, this parody could make its way into the mainstream press as an actual quotation. Jexster, you seem to have plenty of energy--why not become a drudge site?

695. vonKreedon - 1/30/2004 7:20:54 PM

Jex - Please keep the personal taunting to other threads.

Thanks.

696. jexster - 1/30/2004 7:42:34 PM

I'm too honest and too sweet.

697. jexster - 1/30/2004 9:18:41 PM

First the SOTU flub, then the CIA pulls a black op on him now this...

GOP Congressional Rebellion over Moronic Budgeting

Lies and incompetence
Incompetence and lies...that's the ticket for 04...

He's run out of his 9-1-1 Trifecta windfall and this will be the year that we see what a boob Bush really is and really always has been

Bring it on!

698. Magoseph - 1/31/2004 1:05:04 AM

No need to click, whole article below

Poll finds front-runner poised to win most delegates Tuesday By Tom Curry
National affairs writer
MSNBC
Updated: 10:28 a.m. ET Jan. 30, 2004
WASHINGTON - As the Democratic presidential contenders struggle for victories in seven states that hold primaries and caucuses next Tuesday, Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry holds substantial leads in the two states that have the largest number of delegates at stake, Missouri and Arizona, according to a new MSNBC/Reuters Zogby tracking poll released Friday morning.

With a total of 269 delegates to be selected Tuesday, Arizona and Missouri have a combined 129.

In Missouri, Kerry garners the support of 45 percent of likely primary voters, while his next-closest rival, North Carolina Sen. John Edwards, has only 11 percent, according to the Zogby survey.

In Arizona, Kerry has taken a commanding lead with 38 percent, followed by retired Gen. Wesley Clark with 17 percent and former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean with 12 percent.

A tie in South Carolina
In South Carolina, Zogby found that Edwards is in a statistical tie with Kerry at 25 percent to 24 percent, with the full effect of Kerry’s endorsement by Rep. James Clyburn, the state’s most influential black leader, yet to be felt.

699. jayackroyd - 1/31/2004 4:38:09 AM

An interesting question is whether Bush will dump Cheney. I think there is a good chance that there will be a neocon cleansing next month--no admission of error, but bye-bye Feith. Dumping Cheney would be an extension of that.

Cheney has any number of reasons not to be formally involved with the next administration--age, health, etc. There are any number of reasons for a Repub veep in 2004 to be someone who could credibly run for president after Bush, which Cheney could not. The only complication is that Bush's favorite may well be named Bush. But Frist comes to mind.

More practically, absent Cheney, who do you think would be a good running mate?

700. ScreamingSin - 1/31/2004 4:59:43 AM

Susan Collins (Republican, Maine)

701. Magoseph - 1/31/2004 6:18:12 AM

More practically, absent Cheney, who do you think would be a good running mate?

I need to think about that, Jay. Do you have a choice yet?

702. wonkers2 - 1/31/2004 9:07:09 AM

How about Pat Robertson?

703. jayackroyd - 1/31/2004 9:17:18 AM

SS

I'd pick Olympia over Susan if I were picking a Senator from Maine. But neither would feed the base, nor help at the polls. And they're both way too moderate to be the party's pick in the following term. (Of course, that could be personal bias. I am from Maine, and I have spent some time--long ago--with Olympia. And I got a chunk of Greek in me, and she does too, a chunk bigger than mine.)

Had things gone better in Iraq, Condi was a possible pick. IOW, I like your idea of a woman. Powell, I think, is blown, given how he's been treated.

The trouble with Frist (my first thought) is that he isn't widely known, despite his position.

704. jayackroyd - 1/31/2004 9:19:35 AM

wonk

Be serious. They'd just have to run the 700 club tape blaming America's sins for 9/11, and it'd be over.

705. Magoseph - 1/31/2004 9:26:08 AM

Won, I think that it will have to be a respected Southern senator. I don't know which one could be considered for the job.
OT: #6640 in the Cafe from Ms No.

706. wonkers2 - 1/31/2004 9:36:35 AM

The Religion Gap: We vote like we pray.

707. arkymalarky - 1/31/2004 10:46:28 AM

How about AR's governor? He's talked with Bush twice this past week--Bush came down here and then Huckabee went up there.

708. PelleNilsson - 1/31/2004 11:43:21 AM

How can you get elected with a name like Huckabee?

709. arkymalarky - 1/31/2004 11:51:17 AM

Good question. And it all goes downhill from there.

710. robertjayb - 1/31/2004 12:58:13 PM

Look for Texas to have a candidate for governor named Kinky Friedman. Kinky once led a band called The Texas Jewboys, producers of such classics as "Get your biscuits in the oven and your buns in the bed," and "Asshole from El Paso."

Kinky's campaign slogan (approved by Molly Ivins) wiil be "Why the hell not?"

711. wonkers2 - 1/31/2004 1:20:02 PM

Kerry, Edwards and Clark, the Democratic establisment candidates, assail corporate America while accepting big handouts. This is a good piece of reporting.

712. wonkers2 - 1/31/2004 1:31:42 PM

Other indicia of where the money is coming from:

% of money from $2000 contributors

Bush 73%
Edwards 65
Sharpton 64
Kerry 55
Lieberman 52
Clark 31
Dean 13
Kucinich 11

Hmmh, I wonder who Sharpton's big contributors are??

713. judithathome - 1/31/2004 1:32:22 PM

"Why the hell not?"

Why not, indeed! I love kinky; he's an excellent writer, too.

714. judithathome - 1/31/2004 1:32:47 PM

Hmmmm....that's Kinky with a capitl K.

715. wonkers2 - 1/31/2004 1:35:04 PM

Number of $2000
contributors

Bush.........29,803
Edwards........4396
Kerry..........4362
Lieberman......2938
Dean...........1554
Clark...........512
Kucinich........179
Sharpton.........78

716. wonkers2 - 1/31/2004 1:38:34 PM

% of money from under
$2000 Contributors

Kucinich.......65%
Dean...........56%
Clark..........35%
Kerry..........12%
Bush...........12%
Lieberman.......9%
Sharpton........9%
EDWARDS.........3%

717. wonkers2 - 1/31/2004 1:40:23 PM

Source for campaign contribution statistics: Center for Responsive Politics as reported by NYT 1-31-04.

718. vonKreedon - 1/31/2004 1:54:31 PM

Jay - I am really hoping that Cheney stays on the ticket. I combine this with the hope that Edwards is the Dem VP nominee. Then I dream about the VP debate.

Of course, this is yet another reason for the Repubs to replace Cheney. Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchinson seems like a possibility. The downside is that she, like Bush, is from Texas, but she has very solid conservative qual and she is a woman. On the same note, they could trot out the Repub's former black figure, JC Watts. Finally, it seems as if the Bush machine has been grooming RNC chair Racicot for a while, so maybe Racicot.

719. vonKreedon - 1/31/2004 2:01:41 PM

Wonk - In Message # 711 you call Clark a Dem establishment candidate and state that he is accepting big handouts. I am not sure how you come to this formulation.

How can Clark be a Dem establishment candidate when one of the labels his rivals try pin on him is that he is not really a Dem? How can Clark be accepting big handouts when the stats you provide show that few of Clark's contributions fall in the max $2,000 dollar level?

720. robertjayb - 1/31/2004 2:14:31 PM

Excellent observation from The Burnt Orange Report:

Though it appears that Howard Dean will not be the nominee for our party, I think that it is impossible to say that he hasn't been an amazingly positive influence on our party. His message was one of pride in being a Democrat, outrage at what Bush has done and vision for a future where everyone had health care, education, employment and civil rights. Before he came into prominence the race was one of "I support the President, but..." and one of sloganeering. His presence shook up the party and gave us something to look forward to this year.

721. judithathome - 1/31/2004 2:26:43 PM

Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchinson seems like a possibility. The downside is that she, like Bush, is from Texas, but she has very solid conservative qual and she is a woman.

The president and the vice president can't be from the same state...that's why Cheney hauled out his residency certificate from Montana or Idaho or wherever the hell it was. He lived in Texas; he's as much a Texan as Bush is but they still got away with that one.

But I wish they would run old KayB...because losing would be a dead certainty then. This country won't elect a woman to president or VP, no way.

722. vonKreedon - 1/31/2004 2:34:26 PM

Doh! That's right, Cheney had to pull out his, "I'm a former Congressman from Wyoming" card. Oh well.

I disagree with you about the electability of a woman from VP. I think that the country is very ready for it, and that in particular the Repubs could succeed with a woman at the number 2 slot.

723. judithathome - 1/31/2004 2:45:57 PM

Ha...well, maybe so but KayB isn't that woman just as Hillary is not.

I still think it will be cold day in hell before it happens. But with global warming, that day may not be as far off as I think.

724. wonkers2 - 1/31/2004 2:48:44 PM

VK, Well, the Clintons are about as Dem establishment as you can get except for Teddy Kennedy, and they appear, along with Jexter, to be his main supporters.

725. robertjayb - 2/1/2004 12:49:51 AM

Bushie war plans well underway...(LATimes)

WASHINGTON — From South Carolina to Arizona, Democrats are brawling noisily over whom their presidential candidate will be.

But back in the capital, Republican strategists are already focused on the finish line — and quietly working on a new "ground war" plan to secure another four years in the White House for President Bush.

So far ahead are they in their planning, and so committed to their new strategy, that — nine months ahead of time — they are already leasing vans in key states to carry voters to the polls on election day — Nov. 2 — and teaching volunteer canvassers how to track turnout with pocket computers.

726. jayackroyd - 2/1/2004 4:44:56 AM

Thanks for the link, rjb. This, of course, is another expression of my view that the Republican funding advantage, especially given no need to fund any primary activity, may prove to be decisive.

That they're spending the money this early, efficiently and wisely (contrast a certain Demo presidential candidate) bodes ill for any democratic candidate.

But what I found most interesting was the focus back on the House and Senate races. This shows a real foresight, and commitment to complete control of the next decade. Would they have shown the same foresight, planning and commitment to the next Iraqi government Had they done so, I might well be on board for the reelection.

BTW, this kind of demographic data cuts both ways. It can be used to turn out your base. It can also be used to drive down your opponent's turnout, with pushpolling and other dirty tricks.

727. jexster - 2/1/2004 9:13:12 AM

Two intersting articles in the American Prospect...

Kevin Phillips: All Eyes on Dixie ---The South isn't all Bob Jones University, and Democrats can make inroads there

The Non-Southern Strategy - Run Like Every State Is Ohio Teixeira & Schecter

728. wonkers2 - 2/1/2004 10:17:04 AM

Michigan's brainy and beautiful governor, Jennifer Granholm, endorsed John Kerry yesterday. With Michigan's unemployment rate at 7 percent, the big three auto companies in trouble, and plant after plant moving to Mexico or China, I'm pretty sure Granholm and her egg-head husband will be able to deliver Michigan to Kerry or whoever the Dem nominee turns out to be.

729. KuligintheHooligan - 2/1/2004 10:56:16 AM

"from Montana or Idaho or wherever the hell it was"

Shame on you judith! You just insulted the thirteen people who live in Wyoming!

730. wonkers2 - 2/1/2004 11:00:14 AM

How about Joe Lieberman for Bush's running mate? They seem to agree on a lot of things.

731. wonkers2 - 2/1/2004 12:15:02 PM

To paraphrase Howell Raines on Robert McNamara:

Bush's, Cheney's, Rumsfeld's, Powell's, Rice's regret (as yet unexpressed) cannot be huge enough to balance the books for our dead soldiers. The ghosts of those unlived lives circle close around them. Surely they must in every quiet and prosperous moment hear the ceaseless whispers of those poor boys in the infantry, dying in the deserts of Iraq and the streets of Baghdad for no purpose. What they took from them cannot be repaid by prime-time apology and stale tears, one year late."

732. jexster - 2/1/2004 12:54:25 PM

Jay...a different take..

Certainly the planning the technology and the money are impressive. The field operations plan isn't for these reasonss:

1. The field operations plan suffers from the same flaws as the campaign strategy, "feed the base with a vengeance 2004" it is designed to implement Message # 576 and could well amplify them. Feeding the protestant religious right will come at a cost of support among independent swing voters. SOTU perfect case in point. I believe that they underestimate the net on the trade for reasons I won't get into just now.

2. The field operation is not planned to be a broad target supporters/GOTV effort. It will be limited to The Base demographic and then only in close race states. In November 2000, the Bushies concluded somehow that the Religious Right's turnout was 5% under what it should have been. By the next month and ever since, low Base turnout has been an obsession. No independent voters targeted or caputured other than radical right Basers.

3. It takes shoes on pavement. Perhaps as good a reason as any to the limit focus but in any event, Republicans, as the article points out, "don't do canvass". Democrats do. The Democratic campaign activists are accustomed to signing up to canvass precincts and staff phone banks. I doubt that the GOP will be able to marshall sufficient manpower to achieve even their limited objectives. It will take a few cycles.

733. jexster - 2/1/2004 1:05:05 PM

3. Achieving turnout increases at the margin of an already 90%+ supportive population means targeting the marginal voter. From personal experience, occasional voter (0 or 1 vote in last 4) target lists return less than 1/20 the ID's of the more frequent. And once ID'ed, the chances are 1/4 that they'll actually vote.

The Republicans have too much time on their hands and too much money in their coffers. They are burning both.

As for the CV about primaries....the buzz and the coverage is worth every penny.... The usual incumbency disadvantages pale in comparision to the incalculable cost to Dems of Bush's unprecedented, nearly absolute agenda control for 2 years.....

734. wonkers2 - 2/1/2004 1:43:45 PM

Aside from the 500 American young men killed needlessly in Iraq, there is a much greater number of casualties here at home. These are the young people who have graduated from college or high school during the Bush administration who have been unable to find jobs at decent wages in line with their abilities or interests. I am personally acquainted with plenty of situations where college graduates and high school graduates are still living at home and working through temp agencies for peanuts or working at McDonalds's or other minimum wage jobs, unable to afford a place to live on their own, let alone to get married and support a family. If I were a Dem candidate I would develop a TV ad illustrating the dilemma of deserving young people who had the misfortune of getting out of school during Bush's reign and who are unable to get a decent job and are still living in an unhealthy dependent state with their parents.

735. judithathome - 2/1/2004 1:50:30 PM

Don't forget the 50 year olds who are being culled from their long held jobs due to enforced cut backs or shipment of jobs overseas. These are people who have held lucrative jobs for a long time; taken on mortages on large, upscale homes; may have kids entering college; and have been dumped on the "jobs market" to compete for the spaces that aren't even there for the younger people.

736. wonkers2 - 2/1/2004 2:25:16 PM

True! There is no shortage of personal tragedies resulting from Bush's policies.

737. wonkers2 - 2/1/2004 3:08:59 PM

Frank Rich on Diane Sawyer's grilling of Howard and Judy Dean:

"Like everyone else, Ms. Sawyer likened the Deans' joint appearance to the Clinton' Super Bowl Sunday 'stand by your man interview' on '60 Minutes.' But the Deans were not defending themselves against charges of marital turbulence and infidelity. Quite the contrary: they were defending themselves against charges of having a marriage that was if anything too deficient in the melodrama that might lend it entertainment value and too private to to be repackaged as a circus;. Now they found themselves damned if they defended their attempt to keep their marriage off the public stage and damned if they didn't No sooner would they explain how they tried as Judy Dean put it to 'balance' their careers with their personal lives than Ms. Sawyer would point out that the Clintons 'had a young daughter at the time they campaigned' or that John Edward'sa wife had 'been out there' on the trail with her children. There were 20 questions about Judy Dean's absence from the campaign altogether, as clocked by the writer Alexander Stille in the LA Times.

"The implicatin of the questions was clear: where do the Deans get off refusing to turn their marriage into a spectator sport? It was doenright Un-American. Why couldn't they display their marital bliss with the same polish as that other happy two-career political couple, Arnold Schwarzenegger and Maria Schriever.

"As it happens, the Deans were not the only celebrity marriage that ms. Sawyer covered for ABC News of late. Just two months ago she interviewed a couple far more famous, Trista Rehn and Ryan Sutter. On Dec 10 Trista And Ryan, as they are known, were married in prime time on ABC in the most-watched American wedding in history, second in audience by only a hair to that of Diana and Charles."

738. wonkers2 - 2/1/2004 3:29:03 PM

More on Sawyer bullshit media interviews:

The network turned the marriage into a 4-hour extravaganza in which the couple gleefully surrendered their privacy. According to Trista's Bachlorette contract, published by the Smoking Gun Website, only one activity was off-limits: the producers promised that no hidden cameras would be 'positioned to intentionally capture images of you urinating or defecating in the bathroom.'

The betrothed [Ryan and Trista] were paid $1 million for allowing the cameras to facilitate our voyeurism. The wedding itself cost nearly $4 million, also paid for by the show. Much of the endless televised foreplay that preceded the ceremony ws therefore devoted to shopping with Trista taking to the wares of Rodeo Drive as joyously as the hooker played by Jula Roberts in "Pretty Woman," ANOTHER DISNEY ENTERTAINMENT....


YET NEITHER THE $1 MILLION CASH NOR THE $4 MILLION CEREMONY THAT SEALED THEIR MARITAL CONTRACT WERE MENTIONED WHEN TRISTA AND RYAN WERE INTERVIEWED BY MS. SAWYER ON 'GOOD MORNING AMERICA.' WHILE THE DEANS WERE TREATED LIKE FREAKS, THE STARS OF 'THE BACHLORETTE' WERE TREATED AS A PERFECTLY NORMAL ALL-AMERICAN COUPLE. And perhaps these days they are....If only more of our politicians had tuned in, maybe someone would have figured out that it could be harder to restore the sanctity of marriage than to find weapons of mass destruction in Iraq."

What refreshing viewpoints Frank Rich brings to his profession! He makes all the connections.

739. jexster - 2/1/2004 5:36:44 PM

Finally, I don't want to give the impression that the new GOP Centralized Field Operation is 24K gold plated junk.
Most of what the reporter touts as innovations are not new or are inconsequential. He glosses over or entirely ignores what is of real consquence.

A centralized voter mobilization database system is a first for US political parties. If as designed, the system delivers reliable demographic targeting capabiilty that is easily accessed and used in any election down to the precinct level, it could revolutionize US politics but won't make much difference for at least another cycle or more

740. robertjayb - 2/1/2004 5:51:04 PM

Bloggers are reporting that the MoveOn.Org commercials CBS refused to accept for its Super Bowl broadcast will be aired on CNN at 8:10 and 8:35 Eastern.

No guarantee here...your mileage may vary.

741. jexster - 2/1/2004 10:44:27 PM

I did my one minute boycott actually 30 at a bar (close caption no diff)

742. jexster - 2/1/2004 10:50:07 PM

For some reason my Quicktime hangs up and that's all the commerical contest site uses. But if yours works you can see the winner the single commercial is question at "Child's Play" right here

743. WinstonSmith - 2/2/2004 12:36:05 AM

It's very good that Bush is admitting that we went to war on wrong information.

It means that this is the best spin he can come up with.

Bush senior used to like to say "Not on my watch"

Dem candidates should slam him as follows:

Even if you sent our troops to war unwittingly, on the basis of bad intellegence, IT HAPPENED ON YOUR WATCH.

Mr Bush, as President, YOU ARE ULTIMATELY RESPONSIBLE.

744. jayackroyd - 2/2/2004 11:02:24 AM

740

There's no doubt about that Robert. This is true in general for the networks and political advertising. They won't run such ads. Why they'll run political ads from anti drug advocates, I don't get. Well, I suppose I do, but those are also political ads, and they are acceptable. They wouldn't run legalization ads, so they shouldn't run nonsensical accusations that kids are responsible for their friends' drug problems.

I can't help but suspect that they make more money from political ads running on owned and operated affiliates than they would from national ads.

Running, of course, on spectrum they get for free.

745. Magoseph - 2/2/2004 11:24:07 AM

It's very good that Bush is admitting that we went to war on wrong information.

Yes, it is very good but then he does not have much choice now, does he? His internal polling is so bad that it is forcing him to blackmail Sharon into changing the Gaza policy. We should see more concessions soon if Kerry wins big, I believe.

746. jexster - 2/2/2004 11:38:12 AM

If a Democrat wins the Election, Mags, any democrat, the Likooties had best shape up FAST....no more Wolfiewitz/Perle/Rummmy/Cheney and that half wit to cover their butts with lies and cheap political rhetoric

747. jexster - 2/2/2004 11:43:37 AM

Its not TOO soon to start talking March 2...1000 delegates will end the race for all intents and purposes...

And Bill Schnieder and his new sidekick confirmed what is fairly obvious...Even if Dean doesn't win a single state over the next month, he is not giving up......California here he comes, right back where he started from...

BoysTown USA

DEMOS UP IN ARMS

They marched together in the anti-war rallies, toiled in the same non-profits, and were pink-slipped from dot-coms. They'll probably coalesce around one Democratic presidential candidate eventually.



But, for now, they're at war.


With the California presidential primary looming in March and elections in seven other states set for Tuesday, thousands of Bay Area activists are waging simultaneous grass-roots campaigns to put their own Democrat in the White House.

748. jexster - 2/2/2004 11:48:53 AM

As most know, I am a Dean-Kerry-Clark kinda guy but I gotta shit or git off the pot in a month.

My vote is for sale to the highest bidder.

That's right. I'm serious..Its been 30 years since any politician did anything for me. And hell, I see Bush shoveling money to his friends every damn day and I want a piece of the action...

First I have to figure out what the opening auction price will be. Since I am cut above the hoi poloi in intelligence and political acumen my vote is worth more than say, Acies(RIP)..So starting bid will be the sum of all campaign expenditures in all campaigns for President in 2000/#votes cast 11/00 * 2...

Bargain at twice the price!

749. jexster - 2/2/2004 12:36:47 PM

But I do have a bone to pick with any DeanieWeenie I run into..its an old well gnawed one...I have been saying the same thing to Local HeadWeenies here for months..

When will he cut this crap out?

Dean Urges Kerry to Apologize for 'Hypocrisy'

750. jexster - 2/2/2004 1:08:02 PM

Three Texas surgeons were playing golf together and
> > discussing surgeries they had performed.
> >
> > One of them said, "I'm the best surgeon in Texas. A
> > concert pianist lost 7 fingers in an accident, I
> > reattached them and 8 months later he performed
> > a private concert for the Queen of England."
> >
> > One of the others said "That's nothing. A young man
> > lost both arms and legs in an accident, I reattached
> > them and 2 years later he won a gold medal in field
> > events in the Olympics."
> >
> > The third surgeon said, "You guys are amateurs.
> > Several years ago a cowboy who was high on cocaine
> > and alcohol rode a horse head-on into a train
> > traveling 80 miles an hour. All I had left to work
> > with was the horse's ass and a cowboy hat. Now he's
> > president of the United States."

751. robertjayb - 2/2/2004 2:08:56 PM

jexster,

Get new material, for chrissake. You are, after all, representing the allegedly hip left coast.

752. robertjayb - 2/2/2004 2:22:38 PM

New Zogby tracking poll info is up at dailykos.com

Oh, Oh, Oklahoma promises to be worth watching. Clark is hanging on to a one-point lead over Kerry.

Based on the buzz about Kerry's new campaign guru and on the bandwagon effect, I give the guy from Mass. a good chance.

753. wonkers2 - 2/2/2004 3:11:25 PM

The most interesting thing on the Zogby site was the revelation of misleading CBS reporting on McAuliffe's comments on Kerry's military record v. Bush's record. The older I get the less respect I have for big media. They are a bunch of corporate money grubbing hack liars who, with some notable exceptions, have hardly a shred of journalistic ethics.

754. jexster - 2/2/2004 4:04:50 PM

Don't blame Bush...Take it up with The Big Guy!

The neocon cornnuts only fill half the Bush Chock Full O Nuts Can...

the other half...is made up of Fundie Filberts



Jerry Falwell: God is Pro-War

Falwell is one of Bush's religious mentors and he says "President Bush declared war in Iraq to defend innocent people. This is a worthy pursuit. In fact, Proverbs 21:15 tells us: 'It is joy to the just to do judgment: but destruction shall be to the workers of iniquity.'"

Loons-on-the-loose...

755. jexster - 2/2/2004 4:14:55 PM

Would that we could see God's justice perfected here....might it not include a full televised inquest in to Bush's Lies?

Certainly it would also feature Saddam: The Trial on Court TV

And running from Sept through November, 2004


Coming Attractions: Companies Charged With Doing Secret Oil Business with and Giving Bribes to Saddam -- Including 'North Americans'

The denials are flying fast and furious as info found in documents from the Iraqi Oil Ministry is leaked to Iraq newspapers. It seem scores of Arabs and westerners were doing a brisk and illegal business with Saddam. About 270 former Cabinet officials, legislators, political activists and journalists from 46 countries are on a list being irculated by the Iraq media.

Newsday reports: "The documents, as published in the Iraqi Al-Mada newspaper, showed people who allegedly received Saddam's graft came from 46 countries, including Arab states, Europe, Asia, Africa, and North and South America."

Wouldn't ya just love to know what those North American names are - and just how many match names on the secret Cheney energy task force list!

Dear God, please add to the above, a running special presentation on CNN featuring Kimberly Guilfoyle Newsom, We ask this in the name of Jesus Christ Our Savior, who lives and reigns.....

756. Magoseph - 2/2/2004 4:34:48 PM

All Ann Coulters, the bunch of them.

757. robertjayb - 2/2/2004 5:11:14 PM

WHAT'S THIS? Quinnipiac poll projects Kerry over dubya by 8 points!

In a nationwide survey, Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry now leads President George W. Bush 51 – 43 percent according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Looking at the Democratic primary, the Kerry juggernaut has rolled up 42 percent, 30 points higher than any other Presidential primary contender.

American voters give President Bush a 48 – 45 percent approval, the first time he has dropped below 50 percent. While Kerry is the only Democrat ahead of Bush, all Democratic contenders have gained ground on the President.

758. robertjayb - 2/2/2004 5:20:50 PM

The Quinnipiac poll may provide a clue to the bushies' recent behavior. They're shuckin' and jivin', crawfishin', sidesteppin' and carrying on something fierce. Making nice to Kofi, appointing commissions, jabbing the russkies (always popular) and chatting up David Kay. It's almost as if they heard the sound of chickens flying overhead---headed home to roost.

759. robertjayb - 2/2/2004 5:58:34 PM

New Gallup poll continues the march:

Kerry by 7 over dubya and Edwards by 1 over dubya...

Jeezaleezus, jexster!

760. jayackroyd - 2/2/2004 8:12:41 PM

Yes, there is some indication that the polls are not making Karl happy. He's kinda stuck, though, because the pandering that should follow to make the undecided voter happy is not not gonna make Republican Senators happy.

This will be interesting. They've gotta find a way to keep the lid on the pressure cooker through November.

761. jexster - 2/3/2004 2:41:31 AM

Standard Poll Question. How well has GWB performed in fight the War on Terrorism

Push Poll Q: CNN reported this evening that tests of a letter found in GOP Majority Puppet Bill Frist tested positive for Ricin; the bush administration remains clueless as to the perpetratr of the 2001 anthrax terror attack; GWB after having lied and demonstrated astonishing incompetece in the War on Iraq, is now under investigateion by 2 commissions, the Justice Dept., and 8 Committees of his Puppet Congress for misfeasancce and malfeasamce in office in connection with matters related to 9-1-1 and his War on Iraq, and it has been conclusively proved that GWB's war on Iraq has resulted in the American people being less secure from terrorist attack than they were on 9-10-01


How would you rate the performance of this boob now?

Likkert Scale - 0-5

762. jexster - 2/3/2004 2:43:49 AM

Is it any great wonder to any but those who live in SpiderHoles and Perfect Worlds or tenured faculty of Bob Jones or Liberty University tha John Kerry has opened a statistically significant lead over Bush according to the latest CNN/Gallup Poll?

763. jexster - 2/3/2004 2:46:50 AM

Robert....

New to me.

If its not new to Tejas, well All Hayle the Grayte State!

Get thee Humble to Jasper, but before you go, riddle me this:

"What does the Sabine River seperate?"

764. jexster - 2/3/2004 3:10:19 AM

Robert...some frenly advice.....stay put in Humble Tejas lest you wind up in a Perfect World or worse, a SpiderHole Blog..

See Robert, what you fail to appreciate is that while I detest the Col from Crawford, I am a Lousiana man, trained from my birth to know and hence to despise all things Texican....

You think Acie had it rough, I bet..This preview of coming attractions from the Ghost of Crimmus yet to come:

From a recent email to residents of Tom DeLay's congressional district...forwarned is forearmed...REMEMBER THE ALAMO and the Giant Suckin Sound?

Viva Mexico!
Howard Dean, You Aren't Alone Anymore...

No longer the sole butt of Jay Leno jokes...

Hello Houston you have a problem...

Howard Dean Has Company!

Leno interviewing on site correspondnent in Space City'

"Well Jay we are so stoked here in Houston. We are partying in the streets!

Leno: "Damn it looks like you're alone!"



Next time tell the H'town partnership to send the California boys to Montrose, to BoisTown not Downtown...

Some frenly advayce, dontcha know

765. robertjayb - 2/3/2004 11:42:38 AM

Bushies bite---Okay, now lets talk about it---show us the shirker's records---all of them.

(02-03) 08:14 PST WASHINGTON (AP) --

The White House struck back Tuesday at Democratic critics questioning President Bush's record of military service, saying the issue "represents the worst of election-year politics."

"It is outrageous and baseless," presidential spokesman Scott McClellan said in response to suggestions that Bush shirked his military duties when he was in the Texas Air National Guard in 1972.

Military service has emerged as an issue in the campaign for the White House. Sen. John Kerry, the front-runner in the race for the Democratic presidential nomination, and retired Army Gen. Wesley Clark are decorated veterans and remind campaign audiences of their service.

Democratic National Committee Chairman Terry McAuliffe said Bush was "AWOL" during the Vietnam conflict, while former Sen. Max Cleland of Georgia has criticized Bush's service in the Texas Air National Guard. Clark has criticized Bush for his remark challenging enemy forces to "bring 'em on" earlier in postwar Iraq.

766. jexster - 2/3/2004 12:07:55 PM

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Powell: Oh My If We Only Knew Then What We Know Now...

Oh my




Oh my

Oh why

Oh that we may sonn say "goodbye".

767. jayackroyd - 2/3/2004 3:00:09 PM

Today's quiz: What radical LWer just posted the following:

We may be reaching a tipping point in the career and presidency of George W. Bush. This is not because John Kerry is such a formidable candidate. It isn't even because large numbers of voters seem to despise the president. Nor because his reelect numbers are so anemic. The real reason for worry in President Bush's camp is that conservatives have begun to turn on him. Vast increases in domestic spending, liberal immigration proposals, exploding deficits, the expansion of the nanny-state, new entitlements (such as the budget-busting Medicare expansion)--none of this looks, tastes, or smells anything like the conservatism of the 1980s and 1990s. It's far more similar to the Nixon domestic strategy of the 1960s and 1970s: spend, spend, co-opt, co-opt, smear, smear.

768. vonKreedon - 2/3/2004 3:03:18 PM

Without Googling:
Sullivan?

769. vonKreedon - 2/3/2004 3:05:25 PM

Umm, Google gives me nothing!

770. jayackroyd - 2/3/2004 3:08:56 PM

Got it in one. On TNR.com. I'm not sure whether it is public or not.

771. jayackroyd - 2/3/2004 3:16:42 PM

Exit poll numbers are out:

South Carolina: Edwards 44, Kerry 30, Sharpton 10

Oklahoma: Edwards 31, Kerry 29, Clark 28

Missouri: Kerry 52, Edwards 23, Dean 10

Delaware: Kerry 47, Dean 14, Lieberman 11, Edwards 11

Arizona: Kerry 46, Clark 24, Dean 13

If these hold up, it could turn into a two-person race, with Dean rattling around in the shadows hoping for a California miracle. That is, if he can keep raising money after this showing.

772. robertjayb - 2/3/2004 3:50:04 PM

Looks like we better schedule General Clark's farewell parade.

773. vonKreedon - 2/3/2004 5:35:38 PM

damndamndamndamndamn....

Uh..I mean, vote for Kerry/Edwards!

774. arkymalarky - 2/3/2004 6:15:30 PM

Hahahaha! I second that.

Clark just didn't spark anything, really.

775. robertjayb - 2/3/2004 6:16:53 PM

The way to go, Joe, is go home...

WASHINGTON - AP - Democrat Joe Lieberman, facing an uncertain showing in his must-win state of Delaware, was making contingency plans Tuesday to withdraw from the presidential race, according to sources close to the campaign.

The campaign was making calls to close supporters asking them to be at the Hyatt Regency in Arlington, Va., Tuesday night at the postelection party. If Lieberman does not win at least one state -- and his best hope is Delaware -- he will make his concession speech there, said the sources, who spoke on condition of anonymity.


He then would head home to Connecticut for a formal announcement Wednesday in Hartford.

776. robertjayb - 2/3/2004 6:26:38 PM

Wesley, Jr., gets off a rant...(Slate)

The general's son on sweaters, speeding tickets, and the corrupt political press.

777. concerned - 2/3/2004 6:47:18 PM

Edwards dood good. Will Kerry ever be so popular again?

778. concerned - 2/3/2004 7:26:56 PM

Clark needs Hilliary more than ever now.

779. concerned - 2/3/2004 7:42:49 PM

What can one say of Dean at this point?

780. jexster - 2/3/2004 7:47:09 PM

Well you might say that he's hangin in there untii California but if he doesn't win or come close in Saturday's Washington primary, he's all but finished.

You see, as S'Cahlynah exit polls prove once again....its BEAT BUSH

781. concerned - 2/3/2004 7:48:09 PM

Alas for Howard - he talked a 'good' game for a while.

782. concerned - 2/3/2004 7:49:14 PM

Watch GWB coopt the political center before Super Tuesday.

783. jexster - 2/3/2004 7:51:17 PM

Impact???

CNN's daily death report from it inbedded Pentagon corresponden was unique today.

For the first time ever, he took a decidedly critical perspective even read from a soldier's obit that appeared in the New York Daily News

19 year old....Dominican...wanted to be a NYC policeman..bullet in brain...

"He wasn't born here and he didn't die here"

He died for a lie...certain folks have had a tough time hearing that.

These folks have just begun to squirm

784. robertjayb - 2/3/2004 8:07:07 PM

Kerry takes Delaware and Missouri---but you knew that. Kerry, Edwards and Clark said to be neck and neck and neck in OKlahoma.

785. jexster - 2/3/2004 8:18:09 PM

The Missouri win is the most significant in the primaries thus far....

3 way tie in OK pretty well does it for Clark

786. jayackroyd - 2/3/2004 8:41:26 PM

782

Yes, he's gonna try. But it's getting trickier and trickier. Look for a Wolfowitz resignation before tax day. And what's he gonna about all those republicans fighting the pandering?

787. TheWizardOfWhimsy - 2/3/2004 8:46:19 PM

How To Spot The Liar

788. robertjayb - 2/3/2004 9:27:11 PM

With 30-percent of Oklahoma precincts counted percentages are holding at Clark 30, Edwards 28, Kerry 26.

The general may survive to fight another battle.

789. jexster - 2/3/2004 9:56:28 PM

Well he has my vote despite heavy K St pressure to vote for Kerry who will make a fine President.

Won't it be great to have a real one!

790. jexster - 2/3/2004 9:57:36 PM

PS....I did send my anonymous fundraising Washington Insider my check for $5.

We heavy hitters spread contributions ya know

791. jexster - 2/3/2004 10:00:14 PM

Likootie Lieberman Surrenders - Criminal Apprehended in Spiderhole

ARLINGTON, Va. (Reuters) - Sen. Joseph Lieberman of Connecticut announced on Tuesday he was withdrawing from the U.S. presidential race after he made a poor showing in several primaries and caucuses.
"The judgment of the voters is now clear," Lieberman told his supporters in Arlington, Virginia. "After looking at the returns, I have decided tonight to end my quest for the presidency of the United States of America."


The vice presidential candidate in Al Gore (news - web sites)'s failed presidential campaign of 2000 decided to abandon the contest for the Democratic party nomination after trailing Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry (news - web sites), former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean (news - web sites), North Carolina Sen. John Edwards (news - web sites) and former NATO (news - web sites) commander Wesley Clark (news - web sites).

792. robertjayb - 2/3/2004 10:02:22 PM

In OK, Edwards now leads Clark by a skosh...

793. jexster - 2/3/2004 10:03:08 PM

And another Scumbag Bites the dust...

Bye bye Billy Tauzin

Don't let the door hit your fat ass on the way out!

794. concerned - 2/3/2004 10:06:07 PM

Looks like jexster is about to get his fondest National Socialist wish granted - Joe Lieberman is reported to be dropping out.

795. KuligintheHooligan - 2/3/2004 10:06:49 PM

Wow. I'm just shocked at how fast Dean has folded. Seemed like the world beater just a few short weeks ago.

So who here had been touting Dean? I'm just curious.

796. concerned - 2/3/2004 10:19:57 PM

jexster, WoW, Jay & wonkers were puckering up to Howard Dean bigtime until Iowa.

797. jexster - 2/3/2004 10:22:29 PM

the political dotcom

Curious Kulli...

Primary Urge - Democrats Solid Behind One Candidate - the One Who Will Send Bush Back to the Crawfish Hole

798. jexster - 2/3/2004 10:23:33 PM

Don't count your armadillos Robert before they cross the farm to market

799. wonkers2 - 2/3/2004 10:44:24 PM

I'm still supporting Dean, but Kerry is looking more Lincolnesque every day!

800. vonKreedon - 2/3/2004 11:12:57 PM

Man Edwards delivered the speech of the season in SC! I've had Kerry as my second choice, but I have to take another long look at Edwards. I'd like him to be the nominee just to get the chance to hear more speechs like tonights.

Pure high-brow revival tent sermon about healing the children, together. As political theatre it can't be beat, which may well mean that he is the man who can beat Bush.

801. vonKreedon - 2/3/2004 11:14:46 PM

...Kerry is looking more Lincolnesque every day!

Kerry in the last month has managed at times to look like a combination Lincoln and JFK, that is to say quite presidential. But his waffling and lack of accomplishments worry me.

802. vonKreedon - 2/3/2004 11:16:03 PM

I also worry about Kerry's more standard presence of Lincolnesque meaning embalmed. If he slips back into automaton mode its all over.

803. robertjayb - 2/3/2004 11:30:49 PM

I find myself thinking along those same lines, vonKreedon. He can be ponderous and he tends to go on and on. In fact he's doing it right now.

804. jayackroyd - 2/3/2004 11:51:26 PM

795

I liked Dean, and liked his standing up to the president. I loved the idea of a Dean/Zinni ticket.

That said, I don't care, now that Lieberman is gone. I haven't voted for a major party candidate for federal office since Whitman/Bradley. (I voted for Whitman.) But I'm voting for the democratic nominee, no matter who he is. THe vote is symbolic; if New York is in play, then it's over anyway.

This is the worst president of my lifetime, and I have to say so. Yes, worse than Nixon.

805. jexster - 2/3/2004 11:54:28 PM

Kulli...Wonk


Donna Brazile hits it out of the park with _ Dean better win Washington or Michigan or he's toast...

Tough nut...Deeeetroit News Poll puts Kerry at over 50%

Bush thinks he's got a base? He ain't seen nothin yet.

In fact, none of us alive today have ever seen anything like the Democratic Base...

Bring it on.

806. jexster - 2/3/2004 11:54:51 PM

Powell: Oh My If We Only Knew Then What We Know Now...

807. jexster - 2/3/2004 11:56:30 PM

If only someone had sent Colon an invite to join the Mote....

808. jexster - 2/4/2004 12:07:26 AM

Bush public opinion numbers are crashing...

The General has it right....there is a unity building in this country that is unbelievable.....Send that jizzbucket back to Robert where he came from..

February 2, 2004 - Still More Even Worse News for Bush


More Bad News for Bush

February 1, 2004 - Don't Forget About President Bush!


No wonder the Democratic electorate is so focused on electability: Bush stands an excellent chance of being beaten this November by the right Democrat with the right message.

809. jexster - 2/4/2004 12:09:13 AM

Schneider has it right...Dean right message, wrong man..



Pets.com of politics

An Excellent Day for John "Mr. Electability" Kerry

All these are Ruy Teixeira

810. jexster - 2/4/2004 12:19:55 AM

But the primaries, as we move forward, seem likely to be more, not less, about electability. Which means their only chance may be to steal that mantle from him. Good luck. It ain't going to be easy.

811. robertjayb - 2/4/2004 12:38:46 AM

With all 2,237 Oklahoma precincts counted the percentages are Clark 29.93, Edwards 29.53, Kerry 26.81.

812. concerned - 2/4/2004 12:49:43 AM

John Effing Kerry today:


"Some went off to Canada, some were conscientious objectors, and some joined the National Guard"


I think he just lost a lot of support from among former and current members of the National Guard.

813. concerned - 2/4/2004 1:42:02 AM

Meanwhile, accusation of dirty politics by Clark's son, from the NYT:

Son of Clark Calls Politics Dirty Business, Faults Media
By EDWARD WYATT

OKLAHOMA CITY, Feb. 3 — The son of Gen. Wesley K. Clark called politics a "dirty business" on Tuesday and blamed the news media for his father's failure to ignite in the Democratic presidential race.

The son, Wesley Clark II, 34, a screenwriter who lives in California and who has campaigned for his father, said, "It's been a really disillusioning experience, you know."

"We sacrificed a hell of a lot for this country over 34 years," Mr. Clark told reporters. "We lived in a damn trailer when I was a freshman in high school. We always did it because we really believed in this country."

But, he added, when "you go out and see how politics actually works, it's a dirty business, filled with a lot of people who are pretending to be a lot of things they are not."

He also sharply questioned the campaign's strategy of skipping the Iowa caucuses, saying it left the general out of most of the electoral coverage for too long.

Mr. Clark made his comments to reporters in the parking lot of the Clark campaign's state headquarters here. At the time, General Clark was inside the campaign offices making calls to voters in Oklahoma, where exit polls showed a tight three-way race was under way, with him, Senator John Kerry and Senator John Edwards all battling for victory.

The general's son blamed the news media for focusing too much on who is ahead and not on issues and said that if his father did not win in Oklahoma, he hoped he would drop out of the Democratic presidential race.

"His stance on the issues or his qualifications for the job haven't been talked about at all," Mr. Clark said of his father, who entered the Democratic race in September. "You've got to talk about what the man stands for and what he's done. Nobody does that."

814. concerned - 2/4/2004 1:42:50 AM

He complained that much of the recent news coverage was of speeding tickets that the campaign's three-car caravan received on a drive back to Oklahoma City from McAlester, Okla., early on Sunday morning.

Mr. Clark occasionally used obscenities to describe his views of how his father's campaign had been covered. "I think there was a lot of smearing and whispering going on by columnists and talking heads throughout," he said.

Mr. Clark said he did not believe the poor coverage had been limited to his father, however. "I think a lot of people have gotten bad coverage," he said. "I think Howard Dean's gotten unfair coverage. John Kerry's gotten unfair coverage. John Edwards has gotten unfair coverage. I mean, no one has been covered as to what they actually stand for and what they've done."

He also complained that the campaign's decision to skip the Iowa caucuses left his father out of the spotlight in late January, in the week before the first primary in New Hampshire.

"The elections themselves don't really make that much of a difference," he said. "The only thing that makes a difference is what the national press covers and how they cover the horse race. And if you miss Iowa then you miss the momentum of the horse race."

Jamal Simmons, a spokesman for General Clark, said that the views of the general's son were "not necessarily" shared by his father.

"General Clark said earlier that he's his son and he loves him," Mr. Simmons said. "He's a free spirit and he has his own opinions."

Notice how there's no mention of the Republican Party here.

815. Magoseph - 2/4/2004 3:20:33 AM

Concerned's John "Effing" Kerry

816. wonkers2 - 2/4/2004 5:54:13 AM

Kerry will be strong against the weasley little draft dodger.

817. jexster - 2/4/2004 12:21:38 PM

on the situation in Iraq he has gone from 61 percent approval/36 percent disapproval in early January (+25) to 46 percent approval/53 percent disapproval (-7) today. That’s a swing of 32 points in less than a month.Gallup Poll (Teixeira)

818. jexster - 2/4/2004 12:25:17 PM

Now that we have rid ourselves of Gephardt and the Likudite and the Shrieker is on the ropes, a powerful troika of winners has emerged

Kerry - war hero with resume
The General - World Leader and war hero
Edwards - populist and helluva communicator

I hope that they can carpe the diem that Bush has made all by himself

819. jexster - 2/4/2004 12:35:03 PM

They never poll me.....

How many times have you heard some idiot say that?

The following applets helps show why pollsters never had to call him and it isn't because he was ignorant....the CLT assures that a poll has its due share of the ignorant and the baleful whining ludite....



The Central Limit Theorem in Action

CLT II

820. vonKreedon - 2/4/2004 12:57:43 PM

Did anyone else see Edward's victory speech last night? It seemed to me that it should have about the same impact, but for the good, as Dean's "I have a scream", but I'm not gettig this from reading the web today. True, it does not have the single sound bitable "Yeargh!" of Dean, but man that was rousing stuff. My wife was listening to it in the car and had to pull over as she found herself to be weeping! On Hardball DeeDee Myers teared up and Scarborough was gushing!

821. jexster - 2/4/2004 1:04:16 PM

I saw it...I had heard he gave good stump....I heard right!

Kerry Leads Bush 51% - 43% in New Poll

"In a nationwide survey, Sen. Kerry now leads President Bush 51 - 43% according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Looking at the Democratic primary, the Kerry juggernaut has rolled up 42%, 30 points higher than any other Presidential primary contender. American voters give President Bush a 48 - 45% approval, the first time he has dropped below 50 percent. While Kerry is the only Democrat ahead of Bush, all Democratic contenders have gained ground on the President. Kerry had 30 percent of Democratic primary voters in a pre-New Hampshire January 26 national poll by the independent Quinnipiac University... 'Talk about bounce. Sen. Kerry's on a trampoline that has him soaring past the other
Democrats and even past President Bush. What bounces up, can bounce down and the question is whether Kerry can stay on up and turn some of those Republican red states into Democratic blue in November,' said Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute."

822. jexster - 2/4/2004 1:11:06 PM

Bush Slips to 78% of Vote in New Hampshire GOP Primary

823. concerned - 2/4/2004 1:28:49 PM

Here, let me anticipate jexster's garbage polling data by a week or two:

'Kerry Leads Bush by 100% to 0% in new poll of Headlice'


--yawn---

824. jexster - 2/4/2004 1:33:41 PM

Oh so its good news that Kerry has an 8 point lead over Bush?

No you didn't anticipate my next post....

Another prediction bites the dust..

Along with "now that we have Saddam, Jexster..."

825. vonKreedon - 2/4/2004 1:35:01 PM

Yawn indeed, Con, care to actually add something substantive to the discussion? Do you have a poll that you believe to be more credible? Do you have an argument as to why the Quinnipiac poll should be discounted? Would you like to argue that this is much too early to take seriously any polling of hypothetical general election races? If so then please make these arguments.

If you are just here to insult other Moties, then I suggest that this is not the correct thread.

826. jexster - 2/4/2004 1:37:45 PM

My next post concerns my previously expressed view that the Bush election strategy is a product of a Maginot Mind....a view echoed yesterday on CNN by Time magazine's national political correspondent who warned...

We've got to stop mistaking the rearview mirror for the windshield

Forewarned in forewarmed..and I am delighted that the GOP has spent zillions on a rearview mirror field operation...

Look through the windshield...

If that deer in your headlights looks familiar it should...

That's the Fat Lady...One Note Rove

827. PelleNilsson - 2/4/2004 1:50:16 PM

I heard parts of Edwards's speech on BBC. Strong stuff.

828. jexster - 2/4/2004 2:07:48 PM

I understood what TD meant...its too early to put any stock in Bush/Kerry horseraces....wait til the GOP slime machine kicks in!

That's one of the areas of GOP strategy where the Maginot Mind comes in.....that will do nothing but Feed the Base...the rest of the planet is wise to that crap moreover, as the rapid spread of a virulent strain of Electability Fever reflects, there is another base in town that Bush is also feeding...


I have NEVER seen Democrats so united in common purpose, so focused on solving our single greatest national problem - our national shame

So while it is too early to put much stock in horseraces, its not too early to conclude that a surge of doubt is building against Bush; that he has run through his 9-1-1 Trifecta winnings; that neither Saddam's capture, the brief blip of positive economic news, or the Medicare Drug scam have done anything to slow what is a progressive slide back to reality...

829. jexster - 2/4/2004 2:09:40 PM

Kerry if he is the nominee or whoever the nominee is could well blow it...

Likewise so could Bush...


Who would you bet blows it?

830. jexster - 2/4/2004 2:18:10 PM

Great minds think alike???

Just went over to Marshall's blog..

The Bush Bomb

I've been mulling for several days why President Bush suddenly seems so wobbly both in the polls and also with those who have heretofore remained steadfastly loyal. I discuss what I came up with in my new column in Wednesday's edition of The Hill. A quick hint: Immigration reform, Mars mission, prescription drug shenanigans -- they've taken a toll

831. jayackroyd - 2/4/2004 2:20:10 PM

200 million dollars. Jex. 200 million dollars. And it's gonna be Joe Trippi spending the money. The democratic candidate is going to have find a way to inoculate himself.

And it's not just advertising. They've got full demographic databases. They're gonna be tuning messages voter by voter. They've already rented the get out the vote vans. Their concentration on getting and retaining power, which has so corrupted the policy making process, will lead to a very, very effective campaign.

In this context, Edwards' "I'm a little guy, fighting for the little guy" holds some chance of inoculating him against attacks. And they're coming. There are lots of court transcripts for the oppo guys to go through.

832. jexster - 2/4/2004 2:25:43 PM

Political gambits have Bush singing February blues

Have you noticed it too? That sinking feeling?

Over the past month, there’s been a subtle but unmistakable shift in the public perceptions of President Bush. And not one for the better.

833. jexster - 2/4/2004 2:27:12 PM

the president’s deeper problem stems from increasing doubts that his White House is — to employ an overused phrase — on the level, that every new proposal isn’t simply one more gambit for short-term political gain, regardless of the consequences. - The Maginot Mind Problem

834. jexster - 2/4/2004 2:32:06 PM

I can spend 200 million dollars too...so can TD...so can Rose...so what?

835. jexster - 2/4/2004 2:33:20 PM

The 200 million is being spent by Karl Rove, the Fat Lady singing one note, the Maginot Mind...


I'm not impressed by palm pilots

836. jexster - 2/4/2004 2:34:02 PM

and all that hoooey about demographics????


Been around for 20 years

837. jexster - 2/4/2004 2:40:47 PM

The Bush campaign has a fundatmental problem and its stragegy and its tactics merely magnify it...

That problem is they have built a house of cards out of an obession with a low turnout of the Base...that obsession took hold in November 2000 among a campaigh team that had one month before decided that spending 12,000,000 to Gore's zero in California was a good idea...

Feed the Base, slime the opposition really took off though with 9-1-1, the Rapture with Iraq, and the 2002 fearmongered election ...

I submit that none of the fundamental assumptions on which the Bush 2004 election strategy is based, none of the fundamental strategic assumptions or objectives that the gold plated field operation - planned, bought and paid for down to fleets of vans chasing down apathetics - none of it is sound...

The more they spend...the more they convince themselves that what they've bought and what they've bought into is worth the price

838. robertjayb - 2/4/2004 2:47:48 PM

daily kos.com rates the polls...

The verdict? Zogby has been stunningly accurate. SUSA and ARG have been pretty good. In fact, other than Iowa (and to a far lesser degree, South Carolina), the pollsters seem to have done surprisingly well.

Also remember that most of those results included undecideds as well (including all the Feb 3 polls by ARG).

839. wonkers2 - 2/4/2004 3:01:23 PM

Kerry now leads because, among other reasons, the thinking members of the business community who are worried about the long-run macro-economic outlook are bailing on Bush. There was a sobering op-ed in today's NYT by David Walker, the Comptroller of the U.S. He calculates that as of last September the debt per capita was over $100,000.

840. jexster - 2/4/2004 3:10:01 PM

Fun With Figures Jay

$200 million = Bush War Chest
$500 billion - Bush Deficit
$200 billion - Bush War in Iraq

Got your donkey cart MLRS???

841. PelleNilsson - 2/4/2004 3:17:44 PM

Then generals, read (Rove et al) always fight the last war, don't they?

842. concerned - 2/4/2004 3:23:58 PM

If you are just here to insult other Moties...

What makes you think that the garbage poll is a 'Motie'?

843. PelleNilsson - 2/4/2004 3:39:36 PM

And to quatoe another piece of that same post by vonK:

Do you have a poll that you believe to be more credible? Do you have an argument as to why the Quinnipiac poll should be discounted?

844. jexster - 2/4/2004 4:58:43 PM

From the "No Shit Sherlock" Department

Democratic Chief Says 'AWOL' Bush Will Be an Issue After a Nominee Emerges


On Sunday, "the chairman of the Democratic National Committee accused Bush of being AWOL during his Air National Guard service, a signal of the ferocious campaign ahead once the Democrats finish with one another.
Revisiting an issue that arose briefly at the end of the last presidential election, the chairman, Terry McAuliffe, said he expected Mr. Bush's record of military service in the 1970's to become an issue this fall, particularly if the Democrats nominate the front-runner, Senator Kerry. Mr. McAuliffe said he was staying neutral in the fight for his
party's nomination. But, he said, if Mr. Kerry is the nominee, McAuliffe will relish comparing him with Mr. Bush. 'I look forward to that debate, when John Kerry, a war hero with a chest full of medals, is standing
next to George Bush, a man who was AWOL' in the National Guard, McAuliffe said. 'George Bush never served in our military in our country,' he said. 'He didn't show up when he should have showed up.'"
http://www.nytimes.com/2004/02/02/politics/campaign/02CAMP.html

845. jexster - 2/4/2004 5:00:26 PM

Robert Novak: Busheviks Have 'Gut-Wrenching Fear' of Kerry

846. jexster - 2/4/2004 5:04:25 PM

Then generals, read (Rove et al) always fight the last war, don't they?

Just the one's that finish lower than first in class at West Point, fail to get Rhodes Scholarships and Master's Degrees in Economics, Politics and Philosophy from Oxford, and who don't win Silver Stars for bravery in combat.

847. wonkers2 - 2/4/2004 5:05:47 PM

Karl Rove is peeing in his pants!

848. jexster - 2/4/2004 5:10:59 PM

Let's hope not Wonk...The fat lady's gotta keep on message, hold that one note for several more months or else Ace'll be back here pulling archives and MARJI-nalizing me.

849. jexster - 2/4/2004 6:58:23 PM

Time: Can Bush Limit Iraq Fallout?

So much for Eddie's win-win....a few more wins and you can stick a fork in him

850. wonkers2 - 2/4/2004 7:28:09 PM

Two things might save Bush's ass--capturing bin Laden and a marked increase in employment.

851. jexster - 2/4/2004 8:17:23 PM

One thing's for sure, he can't save his ass by starting another foreign war, so he's going to try


CULTURE WAR

Yes folks we're talking peter puffers and fudge packers who want git hitched!

Crimes against nature..

BOSTON - The Massachusetts high court declared Wednesday that gays are entitled to nothing less than marriage and that Vermont-style civil unions will not suffice, setting the stage for the nation's first legally sanctioned same-sex weddings by the spring.


"The fat lady has sung and she's singing the wedding march," Martinek said. "It's clear from reading the majority opinion that there's no basis on which the (court) will OK anything other than marriage."

852. jexster - 2/4/2004 8:18:37 PM

Added bonus...the P sodomites were also miscegenationists...

one black one white..

Should help turn out the Base

853. jexster - 2/4/2004 8:20:53 PM

golf balls through garden hose

854. jexster - 2/4/2004 8:52:12 PM

I'd never heard the line before reading about the persistence of a demonstrably bad practice of local governments offering tax incentives to local business.

Even though it is economically a waste of money and doesn't even induce relocations, local governments coninue to offer them so that officials can claim credit regardless.

The perjorative name for this practice, one being followed even now by Bush....


Shoot anything that flies. Claim anything that falls

Sounds like a Russell Long line to me...

855. jexster - 2/4/2004 9:25:52 PM

and thanks to Peter Jennings bone head slur of Michael Moore, CNN has picked up the trail of the AWOL Bush summarizing the state of the case as records show AWOL, WH says service "made up" but can't produce a single document or witness to back this up.


Absence of evidence is not evidence of absence?< I>

856. HCaulfield - 2/4/2004 11:46:29 PM

Re: Massachusetts SJC

I understand how a court can order that a law is not enforceable. I don't understand how a court can order a legislature to create a particular law. Perhaps the court should just dissolve the legislature, and rewrite the law to its own taste. Counselor?

857. angel-five - 2/4/2004 11:50:45 PM

Well, it's just Massachusetts, Holden, it's not like we can't contain it there and sell tickets if things get out of hand.

858. robertjayb - 2/5/2004 12:16:28 AM

(pirated via dailykos.com)

859. robertjayb - 2/5/2004 12:55:22 AM

Canadian views of dubya...(Maclean's)

...clearly there is something about George W. Bush that gets under the skin of Canadians. After all, vehemently disagreeing with the policies of American presidents is almost a national pastime. There has to be another explanation for our extreme reaction, the desire afoot in the land to see him turfed from office. That and the unprintable sentiment about him and the horse he rode in on. Even before we know whom he will be running against this fall, Canadians have made their decision. Only 15 per cent, according to an exclusive new Maclean's poll, would definitely cast a ballot for Bush if they had the opportunity. And if Americans remain almost evenly divided -- some 50 per cent approve of his performance in the White House and he's running neck and neck with his likely Democratic challengers -- there is no such dithering on this side of the border. Just 12 per cent of us feel Canada is better off since he took office, and only a third of respondents will admit to liking the world's most powerful man, even just a little bit.

860. jexster - 2/5/2004 1:48:57 AM

Democrats in Congress took aim yesterday at the Bush administration's proposed $401.7 billion defense budget in what promises to be a contentious election-year debate, faulting Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld for trying to hide the cost of the war in Iraq.


Naaa ... the Buskeviks wouldn't hide anything from the American people would they? In an election year? The democratic revolutionary Annoited of the Lord Himself?

Must be a liberal media lie

861. jexster - 2/5/2004 1:52:57 AM

Great cover there Robert.....points up a larger point..

Bush has made one helluva lotta enemies...people who'd cut his balls off and feed em to a pack of rabid armadillos..all over the planet

He's quite the Uniter, hardly a Divider

862. jexster - 2/5/2004 1:54:46 AM

General Aschroft...calling Gen Ashcroft...

What is a boy from Tejas doin reading subversive ferrin publications?


Ashamed Canadian elites...

God I do so miss little Eddie

863. vonKreedon - 2/5/2004 1:58:07 AM

HC - Do you expect the Mass SC ruling to be a problem for the Dems, particularly if Kerry is the nominee?

864. HCaulfield - 2/5/2004 2:30:32 AM

The Mass SCJ ruling will be a problem *especially* if Kerry is the nominee, because Kerry has never met an issue that he has not tried to have both ways.

865. concerned - 2/5/2004 2:35:52 AM

Considering that 37 states have 'defense of marriage' laws on their books, a case regarding the Constitutionality of homosexual marriage headed for the USSC docket by November should energize swing voters.

866. concerned - 2/5/2004 2:39:23 AM

Even the eventual prospect of this happening would have some effect, and George Bush may well have something to thank the Massachusetts Supreme Court for next year.

867. concerned - 2/5/2004 2:51:36 AM

HC - mind if I excerpt this? After all, this is the kind of thing Democrats would gleefully use against GWB in an election year. Perhaps John Effing Kerry should be called the 'Great Equivocator'.

"Thank you for contacting me to express your opposition ... to the early use of military force by the US against Iraq. I share your concerns. On January 11, I voted in favor of a resolution that would have insisted that economic sanctions be given more time to work and against a resolution giving the president the immediate authority to go to war."

--letter from Senator John Kerry to Wallace Carter of Newton Centre, Massachusetts, dated January 22 [1991]

"Thank you very much for contacting me to express your support for the actions of President Bush in response to the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait. From the outset of the invasion, I have strongly and unequivocally supported President Bush's response to the crisis and the policy goals he has established with our military deployment in the Persian Gulf."

--Senator Kerry to Wallace Carter, January 31 [1991]

868. concerned - 2/5/2004 3:10:38 AM

JFK stands for:

'Just For Kerry'

In further news, Kerry claims he's not Irish after all. Instead, he says he's part Jewish on his father's side.

869. concerned - 2/5/2004 3:39:12 AM

Re. 857 -

You're merely being facetious, of course.

870. wonkers2 - 2/5/2004 6:56:55 AM

Kerry is trying to recover from what could have been a fatal misstep on a very hot button issue, had the Michigan race with Dean been closer. This morning the Detroit Free Press reported that he is backing away from the following waffly position on the use of Great Lakes Water:

"The water rights issues have been guided by the court decisions, states and the compacts between states. BUT IT IS ALSO IMPORTANT TO UNDERSTAND THAT WE HAVE NATIONAL NEEDS. IT'S A DELICATE BALANCING ACT. THERE ARE MANY DIFFERENT WAYS OF MANAGING WATER RIGHTS WITH REMUNERATIONS AND THE APPROPRIATE RESPECT TO STATES' RIGHTS."

Twenty-four hours later, Kerry's Michigan campaign spokesman said the Mass senator's position on shipping water out of the Great Lakes is unequivocal.

[It sounds pretty equivocal to me, as do many of his positions. Compared to Howard Dean, Kerry could be called the "Great Equivocator." You can smell the wood burning when he's asked even a slightly controversial question.]
Dean's position was much clearer and more satisfactory to Michigan residents:

"Under no circumstances will I permit people to take water out of the Great Lakes...We need conservation in dealing with our water supply...and taking water out of the Great lakes isn't a solution that makes sense."


Cap'n Dirty sez, "That there Dean is my man. He says what he means and means what he says. Kerry talks in sentences too long fer the Cap'n. Me thinks he speaks with forked tongue! But the Kerry missus is the Cap'n's first choice fer a moonlight cruise on the Tomater Sloop!"

871. jayackroyd - 2/5/2004 9:43:10 AM

This Air Force National Guard thing is gaining legs. There's a little sweet irony in this. It's really hard for the handlers and spokespeople to say that we settled this last time when the image of Bush in the flight suit has been so firmly set in public memory. The talk that maybe he'd fly it for part of the way. The whole Top Gun deal. How can they say his service is not in play? They're the ones who reintroduced the image.

I'd said, at the time, that the moment on the aircraft carrier was the apex of the Bush presidency. There was nowhere to go but down. The question was how far.

Even better is that their standard strategy for dealing with criticism--stonewall and smear--is finally coming breaking down. And, because they've done it wrt multiple issues, they're breaking down at the same time, with a path toward one bad story after another. In April, the Supreme Court hears the case to decide whether or not we get to find out how much of our energy policy was written by Ken Lay. In the summer sometime, we're gonna hear about all the stuff that didn't get connected pre-911. In the short term, we're gonna continue to hear about wmd and intelligence failure, and the president rigging the "independent" committee. And, because they are pushing so hard to not respond substantively to the National Guard story, that's gonna stay in the news for quite a while.

It's not the crime. It's the coverup. And the covers are breaking down. All at once.

872. wonkers2 - 2/5/2004 10:48:53 AM

Amen. The chickens are coming home to roost!

873. judithathome - 2/5/2004 10:52:14 AM

The center cannot hold.

874. judithathome - 2/5/2004 10:53:20 AM

Turning and turning in the widening gyre

The falcon cannot hear the falconer;

Things fall apart; the center cannot hold;

Mere anarchy is loosed upon the world,

The blood-dimmed tide is loosed, and everywhere

The ceremony of innocence is drowned;

The best lack all conviction; while the worst

Are full of passionate intensity.



W.B. Yeats

875. Magoseph - 2/5/2004 11:04:45 AM

CIA Boss: Iraq Not Called Imminent Threat

WASHINGTON - In his first public defense of prewar intelligence, CIA (news - web sites) Director George Tenet said Thursday U.S. analysts never claimed before the war that Iraq (news - web sites) posed an imminent threat.

876. robertjayb - 2/5/2004 11:18:32 AM

Boston Globe revisits dubya the shirker...

False, outrageous, and baseless, said the White House. Terry Holt, the spokesman for Bush's reelection campaign, insisted in an interview yesterday that Democrats are recklessly trying to "impugn the character of the commander-in-chief."

As with much of the partisan back and forth in presidential politics, the truth lies elsewhere -- in this case in Bush's military records. Those records contain evidence that a lackadaisical Bush did not report for required Guard duty for a full year during his six-year National Guard enlistment.

A detailed Globe examination of the records in 2000 unearthed official reports by Bush's Guard commanders that they had not seen him for a year. There was also no evidence that Bush had done part of his Guard service in Alabama, as he has claimed. Bush's Guard appointment, made possible by family connections, was cut short when Bush was allowed to leave his Houston Guard unit eight months early to attend Harvard Business School.
..................................................

Shirker coverage from Globe archives...

877. jayackroyd - 2/5/2004 11:26:53 AM

Kerry's got a killer line, too:

"I've never made any judgments about any choice somebody made about avoiding the draft, about going to Canada, being a conscientious objector, going into the National Guard."


Pretty funny. Maybe the flight suit will join the tank in the annals of American political history.

878. robertjayb - 2/5/2004 11:33:23 AM

Dean says campaign down to Wisconsin

FLINT, Mich. (Reuters) - Democrat Howard Dean (news - web sites) said on Thursday his once high-flying U.S. presidential bid would be over if he did not win the Wisconsin primary on Feb. 17, declaring "the entire race has come down to this."

"We must win Wisconsin," the former Vermont governor said in a memo to supporters. "A win there will carry us to the big states on March 2 -- and narrow the field to two candidates. Anything else will put us out of the race."

879. TheWizardOfWhimsy - 2/5/2004 11:36:36 AM

FYI Dept.:



Elizabeth Edwards (wife of Sen. John Edwards) on Charlie Rose tonight.

880. TheWizardOfWhimsy - 2/5/2004 11:37:37 AM

Amen. The chickenHAWKs are coming home to roost!

881. jayackroyd - 2/5/2004 12:27:39 PM

Republican officials are cancelling primaries
Bush's embarassing showing in NH, gaining only 78% running unopposed. 12% of republican voters wrote in Democratic candidates.

Hoo-boy. His fiscal discipline base is turning on him. Now the moderates don't like him either. He'd better turn out a whole helluva lot of evangelicals.

But wait, he hasn't done anything for them, either. Do you think they've noticed? Or were the stem cells enough?

In other news, former Justice Roy Moore has not ruled out a run.

Hoo-hoo-hoo.

And all this stuff is gonna keep happening through the rest of the primary season.

882. jexster - 2/5/2004 12:28:41 PM

With that ole fox b'rer Tenant sayin they never tole Bush Saddam was any sorta imminent threat and the weapons search ain't near over...looks like we got a little election issue here.

883. jayackroyd - 2/5/2004 12:29:36 PM

I somehow lost a sentence there:

Bush's embarassing showing in NH, gaining only 78% running unopposed is leading republican officials to cancel primaries, and simply have the state party endorse the president and pick the delegates directly.

884. jexster - 2/5/2004 12:31:21 PM

jay the absence of evidence is only evidence of absence to Saddam luvers, Bush Bashers, Massachusetts liberals, and Osama Bin Laden supporters

885. jayackroyd - 2/5/2004 12:31:24 PM

Wow. More good news. Bush for an hour, live with Tim Russert on Sunday on the Meet the Press. Russert better not let him off easy.

886. jexster - 2/5/2004 1:23:54 PM

While Bush was Dodging the Draft, Kerry Was Leading Men into War

887. jexster - 2/5/2004 1:24:39 PM

target=new>Why Kerry Klobbered Bush in the Latest Gallup Poll

888. jexster - 2/5/2004 1:29:42 PM

Chicken George Can Run But He Can't Hide

Marsall:

take a good look at Kevin Drum's discussion of the "torn document" upon which hangs President Bush's case on the Air National Guard matter. Believe me, you'll want to see this.

889. jayackroyd - 2/5/2004 1:32:55 PM

Yeah, I was just looking at that.

You know what the difference is between 2000 and 2004 politics?

Blogs. It's gonna be very hard to bury a story this time around.

890. robertjayb - 2/5/2004 2:21:59 PM

Yes. A Google News search for 'bush awol' produced 365 references.

891. vonKreedon - 2/5/2004 2:29:05 PM

Of course it cuts both ways; 'Kerry waffle' returns 7,660 references. Blogging is certainly a new political battleground.

892. vonKreedon - 2/5/2004 2:31:58 PM

Just as I posted I read rjb's post again and saw that he searched Google News, not just Google. 'Kerry waffle' returns 44 on News.

Does the News search find blogs?

893. jayackroyd - 2/5/2004 2:34:33 PM

it cuts both ways

Yes, I almost ended my post with an admonition to the democrats that they'd better come clean on any skeletons now, or have a plan for when they come out.

894. jayackroyd - 2/5/2004 2:40:05 PM

The blogger remind me of a metaphor I once heard someone use when talking about Microsoft's marketing efforts. He said that they were like a big bunch of ants running around on an elephant. Look at any one of them, and it seems to be acting randomly. But, poof!!, 24 hours later, the carcass is picked clean.

All those bloggers, picking and picking and picking. The big guns, the instapundits filtering, and then the newspapers have to pick it up.

Actually, that's another interesting internet thing that has happened. Traditional media members said that their role as filters and editors was essential and would never go away--that you'd have all this garbage on the internet, but no way to tell good from bad. It would be too much for people to process. But the blogosphere has solved that problem. Some bloggers develop a reputation for probity and accuracy, and they become the de facto filters.

895. jayackroyd - 2/5/2004 2:50:09 PM

And then there are the bottom feeders

This is the kind of thing that was being published in book form during the Clinton administration. These allegations are not so laughably unbelievable, though. I did see one that was--a guy who claimed to have checked a completely coked out Bush into a rehab clinic in Alabama. He wasn't working on a campaign after all, this guy said.

All these scurrilous little stories.

But it's also the big stories this week. Rumsfeld still believes in the WMD. Powell said that if he'd known, oh, oops sorry never mind. Tenet says we never said anything about imminence. Bush reverses his Polish position of last summer: "We've found 'em" to: "We have not yet found the stockpiles of weapons that we thought were there," today.

Those 527s are gonna have a field day with these clips. SOTU "Canisters and vials" Poland "We've found" SOTU2 "WMD program activities" US "We have not found stockpiles of weapons". Couple of beats. Number of dead:XXX Number of maimed:XXXX

It's interesting that I expect the Republicans to coordinate the 527s, and the democrats not to. It's really a shame that the networks won't sell to the 527s. And somehow really deeply wrong--the public spectrum they own is the one place where political speech can't be made?

896. jayackroyd - 2/5/2004 2:51:54 PM

The You Heard it Here First Dept:

Somewhere on Salon there is a report that the hot rumor among the republicans is that Bush is gonna dump Cheney for Giuliani. Leading indicator for the truth of that rumor: Wolfowitz's resignation.

897. jayackroyd - 2/5/2004 2:52:44 PM

What's jexster's record? 17? 24?

I'm shutting up now.

898. jayackroyd - 2/5/2004 2:59:17 PM

Ah hell, just one more. It's no longer the center for american progress posting the "we never said 'imminent'" quotes. Now it's the AP

The piling on is beginning. I hope Russert doesn't wimp out on Sunday. I hadn't noticed at first, but he's already at a disadvantage. Usually he puts his guests on their heels with clips. He'll be in the Oval Office, so he can't do show a series of Bush statements, or, even more unfortunately, can't show him emerging from the plane in his flight suit before asking him the national guard questions.

899. jayackroyd - 2/5/2004 3:35:18 PM

Talking points memo says UPI is reporting pending FBI indictments of Scooter Libby and John Hannah, both members of the vice president's staff in the Plame affair.

900. robertjayb - 2/5/2004 3:46:50 PM

Here is the UPI correspondent's article...

901. jayackroyd - 2/5/2004 3:53:54 PM

thanks Rjb. And thanks for breaking up my string of posts. I was afraid vK was gonna ban me.

902. vonKreedon - 2/5/2004 4:35:32 PM

Jay - No no, you are posting your own opinion and analysis regarding how the existence of the Internet is effecting the electorates diet of scandal. Totally on topic and without invective, but I assume you knew that really.

903. concerned - 2/5/2004 4:36:32 PM

Re. 901-

I once clocked jexter at 25 consecutive posts and going strong when I broke the string with one of mine.

904. judithathome - 2/5/2004 4:46:45 PM

So what? What does that have to do with the Election?

905. wonkers2 - 2/5/2004 5:26:58 PM

Hmmh, Libby and Hannah. I was hoping for Rove.

906. judithathome - 2/5/2004 5:28:48 PM

Rove sacrificed Scooter and Hannah...I just want them to give up Novak but I'm certain they won't. He's an asset to the team.

907. TheWizardOfWhimsy - 2/5/2004 5:40:13 PM

A KARL ROVE/BUSH ADVISOR'S PLANS FOR NEUTRALIZING "LIBERALS"

Excerpts from the Free Congress Foundation's lengthy strategic statement for the Traditional Conservative Movement . . .


Our movement will be entirely destructive, and entirely constructive. We will not try to reform the existing institutions. We only intend to weaken them, and eventually destroy them. We will endeavor to knock our opponents off-balance and unsettle them at every opportunity. All of our constructive energies will be dedicated to the creation of our own institutions....

We will maintain a constant barrage of criticism against the Left. We will attack the very legitimacy of the Left. We will not give them a moment's rest. We will endeavor to prove that the Left does not deserve to hold sway over the heart and mind of a single American. We will offer constant reminders that there is an alternative, there is a better way. When people have had enough of the sickness and decay of today's American culture, they will be embraced by and welcomed into the New Traditionalist movement. The rejection of the existing society by the people will thus be accomplished by pushing them and pulling them simultaneously.

We will use guerrilla tactics to undermine the legitimacy of the dominant regime...

We must create a countervailing force that is just as adept as the Left at intimidating people and institutions that are used as tools of left-wing activism but are not ideologically committed, such as Hollywood celebrities, multinational corporations, and university administrators. We must be feared, so that they will think twice before opening their mouths...

908. robertjayb - 2/5/2004 5:48:06 PM

Rejoice (for now) in a not-so small-victory...

WASHINGTON (AP) — The Pentagon won't use an Internet voting system for overseas U.S. citizens this fall because of concerns about its security, an official said Thursday.

The official, who requested anonymity, said Deputy Defense Secretary Paul Wolfowitz made the decision to scrap the system because Pentagon officials were not certain they could "assure the legitimacy of votes that would be cast."

Fear not, we can still count on GOP operatives to
attempt to tweak the military vote. They are, after all, doing the Lord's work and they never, never stop or show quarter. This time around, however, the troops may not be so devoted to the CINC/LOFW.

909. concerned - 2/5/2004 5:56:25 PM

Re. 904 -

Oh, ok, JAH. Here ya go:

910. TheWizardOfWhimsy - 2/5/2004 6:08:04 PM

911. jayackroyd - 2/5/2004 6:35:22 PM

906

Novak's clean. Reporting it is not illegal. He has no clearance. He did not violate any law, or, ftm, custom.

912. jexster - 2/5/2004 9:25:24 PM

The Dean SurrenderGram

Dear __________-


Last night Governor Dean laid out our plan in the simplest terms: We must win Wisconsin.

And this morning you sent the strongest response: We WILL win Wisconsin, and then we'll catapult into the biggest states with the momentum to carry us to the nomination.

As of 6 PM tonight, you've contributed half a million dollars. With more than 6,000 Americans contributing, it's already your best fundraising day of the year. That incredible figure puts you on track to match what you gave June 30th, when your $819,531 woke up a sleeping America and catapulted Howard Dean to center stage. You can beat that record by contributing now:

http://www.deanforamerica.com/contributenow

All eyes are on you. The media is starting to get it—you’ve proven to the pundits and doubters that we will not slow down. More than 90% of voters have yet to cast their vote, and this race is a long way from finished.

The people of Wisconsin have a long tradition of leading reform in this country—standing up for progressive values and against special interests. Wisconsin’s Robert La Follette—one of the Governor’s personal heroes—embodied the struggle for reform, honesty, and integrity against establishment insiders.

Howard Dean embodies that struggle today—and you have the power to give Wisconsin a chance to make the right choice.

We set a goal of $700,000 to get out our message on television and on the ground in Wisconsin, and you can blow past that. Let's show how strong Howard Dean and this campaign are. Only with your contribution will we get our message out in Wisconsin—and earn the win that launches us to the nomination. Contribute now:

http://www.deanforamerica.com/wisconsinad

Thank you for all you do.

Roy Neel
Chief Executive Officer
Dean for America

913. jexster - 2/5/2004 11:44:22 PM

DLC Annoints the Troika

914. robertjayb - 2/5/2004 11:58:22 PM

Gephardt to endorse Kerry...

NEW YORK (AP) -- John Kerry secured the endorsement of former presidential rival Dick Gephardt on Thursday, a blockbuster embrace that paid immediate dividends for the Democratic front-runner's bid to rally organized labor behind his candidacy.

Kerry spokesman David Wade said the Missouri lawmaker will give Kerry his backing on Friday in Warren, Mich., a blue-collar suburb of Detroit, and travel with the front-runner to Tennessee.

He confirmed the endorsement as two labor officials, speaking on condition of anonymity, said an alliance of labor groups formed by the Teamsters and more than a dozen industrial unions planned to endorse Kerry. The Alliance for Economic Justice made the decision after a morning meeting in Boston, where Kerry began his day, but must seek approval of their boards, which is expected in the next week.

915. Magoseph - 2/6/2004 6:39:37 AM

Tuning Out the G.O.P.'s Siren Song

Good election isssue for Edwards:


The Wall Street Journal ran an article on Wednesday about the resurgence of lavish spending by the investment crowd. It featured accounts of giddy highfliers getting married at the palace of Versailles, stepping up their purchases of Porsches, Lamborghinis and Rolls-Royces, and exhibiting "a renewed appetite for chartered jets."

916. robertjayb - 2/6/2004 10:15:24 AM

dailykos.com has poll results up for Wisconsin, Washington, and Michigan. They show a Kerry sweep.

I'm really surprised, and a bit suspicious, of Kerry's 35 to 8 edge over Dean in Wisconsin. Of course my view of Wisconsin is heavily weighted toward the Free Republic of Madison and environs.

917. jexster - 2/6/2004 11:07:42 AM

By REUTERS 11:01 AM ET
The U.S. economy created just 112,000 new jobs in January, far fewer than the 150,000 new jobs expected, government data showed today.

918. TheWizardOfWhimsy - 2/6/2004 11:31:10 AM

919. jexster - 2/6/2004 11:36:50 AM

target=new>Bring It On!
Kerry Says If Bush Slings Mud, 'Everything is on the Table.
Everything'

NY Times: "Republicans and their allies have begun laying the groundwork for a familiar line of attack against John Kerry: that he is 'out of sync' with most voters, 'culturally out of step with the rest of
America,' a man who votes with 'the extreme elements of his party,' as Ed Gillespie has put it in recent days... The Kerry campaign, which includes several veterans of the Dukakis campaign, says it will not make the mistakes of 1988, when Mr. Dukakis was widely seen as too passive in the face of the attacks. 'We welcome a debate with the likes of Ed Gillespie, Karl Rove and this White House about who's out of sync with Main Street America,' said David Wade, a Kerry spokesman... Another Kerry adviser was more blunt. 'This is not the Dukakis campaign," the adviser said. 'We're not going to take it. And if they're going to come at us with stuff, whatever that stuff may be, if it goes to a place where the '88 campaign did, then everything is on the table. Everything.'"

920. wonkers2 - 2/6/2004 1:15:03 PM

Just got home from a Kerry rally in Warren, Michigan. I had to leave to go to a funeral before Kerry and Jennifer Granholm arrived. But I heard Max Cleland do a tremendous job warming up the crowd which had supporters from the Firefighters Union, a couple of other unions and a lot of veterans from various organizations. I was sorry not to be able to stay for Kerry. I got there at 9am for an advertised 9:30am start and Kerry was just arriving when I had to leave just before 11am. I guess that's par for the course. There was a good and cheerful crowd.

921. wonkers2 - 2/6/2004 1:19:13 PM

U.S. Representatives John Dingle and Sander Levin plus a bunch of local politicos were there. Didn't see anyone from the UAW who hasn't yet endorsed a candidate as far as I know.

922. TheWizardOfWhimsy - 2/6/2004 2:09:05 PM

The Kerry rally is on Cspan now.

923. jexster - 2/6/2004 7:39:24 PM

GWB will be on Sunday Meet the Press

Has Karl Rove hit the panic button like Clinton did in 1992 with his appearance on 60 Minutes??

924. jayackroyd - 2/6/2004 7:55:09 PM

Just want to note that that the reason Bush rushed to settle the committee today was so he can push off intelligence questions to it, rather than answer Russert's questions on Sunday.

925. jexster - 2/6/2004 8:10:22 PM

February 6, 2004

Zounds! He's Gone Net Negative!

The latest Ipsos/Associated Press poll has Bush's approval rating down to 47 percent, with 50 percent disapproval. That's down from 56 percent approval just a month ago. Apparently, his drop in support has been largest among older voters, those in the Midwest and political independents.

In addition, just 37 percent say they would vote to re-elect Bush, compared to 43 percent who say they would definitely vote against him. That's down from 41 percent definitely re-elect to 33 percent definitely vote against a month ago. And political independents by 2:1 now say they will defiiniely vote against Bush, rather than for him.

Bush's approval rating on the economy has also fallen to 44 percent, down 9 points from early January. There has been a similar decline in those willing to say the country is going in the right direction, falling from about half to four in ten.

Let me close with a quote that had ole DR wiggling his long ears appreciatively:

"I think he's run the country into the ground economically, and he comes out with these crazy ideas like going to Mars and going to the moon," said Richard Bidlack, a 78-year-old retiree from Boonton, N.J., who says he voted for Bush in 2000. "I'm so upset at Bush, I'll vote for a chimpanzee before I vote for him."

By George (or Richard), I think he's got it! Ruy T.

926. jexster - 2/6/2004 8:11:46 PM

Good point Jay....no

GREAT point...have seen 4 non-partisan commentariat types and none have picked this up...

927. jexster - 2/6/2004 8:16:44 PM

This does deserve "going large" as my dearly departed Rosie would say....

I'm so upset at Bush, I'll vote for a chimpanzee before I vote for him. Richard Bidlack, a 78-year-old retiree from Boonton, N.J

928. jexster - 2/6/2004 9:45:03 PM

Did Bush drop out of the National Guard to avoid drug testing?

The young pilot walked away from his commitment in 1972 -- the same year the U.S. military implemented random drug tests.

929. wonkers2 - 2/6/2004 11:34:08 PM

Bush is dead meat!

930. TheWizardOfWhimsy - 2/7/2004 12:03:49 AM

Or at the very least, chicken meat.

931. robertjayb - 2/7/2004 12:23:14 AM

David Brooks rummages through the Rovian Oppo file for this twee column on John Kerry...

932. concerned - 2/7/2004 1:20:10 AM

jexster doesn't like polls by likely voters very much, it appears.

933. concerned - 2/7/2004 2:01:23 AM

The spectacle of Democrats throwing Howard Dean to the wolves after professing such fervent support for him is almost too much to bear.

934. concerned - 2/7/2004 2:38:39 AM

They're coming for you, Kerry.

935. ScreamingSin - 2/7/2004 3:39:30 AM

Kerry's really photogenic.

936. ScreamingSin - 2/7/2004 3:42:52 AM

In an alternate universe, let's have this campaign over radio and see who wins.

937. Magoseph - 2/7/2004 5:43:30 AM

Facing '96 Loss, Brawling Kerry Fought to Win

Facing '96 Loss, Brawling Kerry Fought to Win
How John Kerry bounced back from being declared dead in 1996 provides valuable insights into him as a campaigner, his combative instincts and how he deals with adversity. People on either side of the 1996 race say these same qualities propelled the come-from-behind victory over Howard Dean in Iowa that set him on the path to winning seven of the nine Democratic contests so far.

And his supporters say the 1996 race also put on display the political prowess Mr. Kerry would show as the candidate trying to topple an incumbent president.

938. Magoseph - 2/7/2004 11:18:00 AM

Jex,

In reference to the 78-year old man who would rather vote for a chimpanzee than for Bush-- My younger son who lives in Arlington, TX, told me today that he will vote for Bush only if the Democrat nominee appears to be a psychopath and a mass murderer. His dad, Vietnam war veteran and lifetime Republican, is considering campaigning for Kerry.

939. Magoseph - 2/7/2004 11:42:20 AM

Jex,
I should add that both my son and his father have good jobs which they are not likely to lose. Bush is not so dumb, after all--losing these two voters is quite a coup.

940. judithathome - 2/7/2004 12:02:35 PM

I still think there is a segment of the population which is not committed to any party and if, say, they are unemployed at the time of the election, they will vote for anyone but Bush but should they find a great job the month before and get that paycheck in their sweaty little paws, they will decide on the spot that life is good and vote for the man in power.

Most everyone thinks people vote the same way they do...with great deliberation and with all the facts at their fingertips and with a good understanding of the issues. This simply isn't true; for many people, it can be a matter as simple as not liking the way a man answered a question the day before and believe it or not, a lot of people will buy into the "botox" stories or the "cocaine" stories or simply vote for someone because they feel he is going to win, anyway.

Everyone says to trust the people; they know what they are doing. That is crap. A majority of them don't.

941. HCaulfield - 2/7/2004 12:34:12 PM

Judith -- Ah, but this is the beauty of democracy. We get to vote, and one hopes that the smart voters cancel out the dumb voters. In any case, storming the castle & hoisting the king's liver on a stick is a bad way to change policy.

(PS - I don't belong to any party.)

942. jexster - 2/7/2004 12:36:32 PM

Michigan: Bad News for Bush (Salon)

PS. I am a yellow dog democrat. I have voted straight ticket for 32 years.

943. jexster - 2/7/2004 12:40:07 PM